Ignatieff's Liberals close gap on Conservatives

[Progressive Tory]

In just three months Michael Ignatieff has managed to raise the Liberals by 7 points nationwide, but there also some interesting conclusions.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Ignatieff+Libe...0989/story.html

OTTAWA — It's not exactly "Iggy-mania," but the federal Liberals under new leader Michael Ignatieff are slowly closing the gap on the governing Conservatives, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have stalled at 37 per cent support among decided voters, according to the poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National from Feb. 24 to March 5. Meanwhile, the Liberals have edged up to 33 per cent, an increase of two percentage points from a month ago.

However, as the prospect of an opposition coalition has faded and the severity of the global recession has become clear, the Conservatives have steadily slid in the polls. Even the largely successful visit of U.S. President Barack Obama to Ottawa on Feb. 19, in which the popular president sang Canada's praises, failed to lift the Conservatives.

The situation is especially dire for the party in Quebec, where the Conservatives have dropped to 16 per cent in support, well behind the Bloc Quebecois, who stand at 41 per cent, and the Liberals at 27.

"Clearly, Harper isn't really able to expand his base right now," said Bricker. "He tried his gambit in Quebec, but Quebecers have now passed judgment on this party and this leader."

Since Ignatieff took over as leader on Dec. 10, the Liberals have jumped more than seven points in the polls. Ignatieff, a former human-rights professor at Harvard, has consciously distanced himself from former party leader Stephane Dion. Ignatieff has abandoned Dion's carbon tax, cut ties with the Greens and stood up for the oilsands in an attempt to revive the party's fortunes in the West.

Ironically, Ignatieff's tack to the right appears to have hurt the NDP, noted Bricker. "You would think at a time of trouble for the working man, this would be the time for the NDP. It's not happening."

What's interesting to note is that the West is keeping the Conservative numbers high, but collectively (at 102) they don't have as many seats as Ontario (106) and I think Harper is giving our province even more seats.

Harper agrees to give Ontario 21 more seats in House

"In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 42 per cent... The Grits also lead in Atlantic Canada, with 41 per cent."

Maybe this is why Harper is trying to get back to his base with 'Faith, Family and Freedom'. With rumours of a new Reform Party, if he loses any ground in the West he's in deep doodoo. He doesn't want an election now no matter how much he huffs and puffs. He's on shakey ground.

Edited March 17, 2009 by Progressive Tory

[Keepitsimple]

In just three months Michael Ignatieff has managed to raise the Liberals by 7 points nationwide, but there also some interesting conclusions.

http://www.vancouversun.com/Ignatieff+Libe...0989/story.html

OTTAWA — It's not exactly "Iggy-mania," but the federal Liberals under new leader Michael Ignatieff are slowly closing the gap on the governing Conservatives, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have stalled at 37 per cent support among decided voters, according to the poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National from Feb. 24 to March 5. Meanwhile, the Liberals have edged up to 33 per cent, an increase of two percentage points from a month ago.

However, as the prospect of an opposition coalition has faded and the severity of the global recession has become clear, the Conservatives have steadily slid in the polls. Even the largely successful visit of U.S. President Barack Obama to Ottawa on Feb. 19, in which the popular president sang Canada's praises, failed to lift the Conservatives.

The situation is especially dire for the party in Quebec, where the Conservatives have dropped to 16 per cent in support, well behind the Bloc Quebecois, who stand at 41 per cent, and the Liberals at 27.

"Clearly, Harper isn't really able to expand his base right now," said Bricker. "He tried his gambit in Quebec, but Quebecers have now passed judgment on this party and this leader."

Since Ignatieff took over as leader on Dec. 10, the Liberals have jumped more than seven points in the polls. Ignatieff, a former human-rights professor at Harvard, has consciously distanced himself from former party leader Stephane Dion. Ignatieff has abandoned Dion's carbon tax, cut ties with the Greens and stood up for the oilsands in an attempt to revive the party's fortunes in the West.

Ironically, Ignatieff's tack to the right appears to have hurt the NDP, noted Bricker. "You would think at a time of trouble for the working man, this would be the time for the NDP. It's not happening."

What's interesting to note is that the West is keeping the Conservative numbers high, but collectively (at 102) they don't have as many seats as Ontario (106) and I think Harper is giving our province even more seats.

Harper agrees to give Ontario 21 more seats in House

"In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 42 per cent... The Grits also lead in Atlantic Canada, with 41 per cent."

Maybe this is why Harper is trying to get back to his base with 'Faith, Family and Freedom'. With rumours of a new Reform Party, if he loses any ground in the West he's in deep doodoo. He doesn't want an election now no matter how much he huffs and puffs. He's on shakey ground.

It is indeed interesting......however I tend to look at things a little differently. I think you'll admit that Dion almost wrecked the Liberal Party single-handedly - his approval ratings were minisdcule and he drove away a large part of the Liberal base - or at least made them sit at home. Some of their left flank even went to the NDP in frustration. So changing the leader to anybody but Dion would naturally gave the Liberals a large boost in the polls. I have to agree that the Conservatives have gone belly up in Quebec and the Liberals are the beneficiaries. I believe those are the two driving issues behind the increasing support for the Liberals - but mostly the turfing of Dion. But what is really interesting is that almost always, when the economy is bad, the ruling party takes a beating at the polls. The Conservatives however, seem to be holding on to just about all the votes they got in the last election. Although the article says they have "stalled", it's almost impossible to pick up new voters in times of economic turmoil. Ontario's Premier McGuinty will soon find that out after he releases his budget and the bad news keeps coming.

Edited March 17, 2009 by Keepitsimple

[waldo]

- from the "poll thread"... thanks to Vancouver King for highlighting the March 13th Harris Decima poll results:

Latest Harris/Decima poll showing dead heat between the main rivals. Their analysis shows significant movement of women away from the Conservatives. Quebec remains a Tory wasteland - they poll only half their actual 2008 election result.

Liberal - 33%

Conservative - 32%

NDP - 14%

Green - 10%

Bloc - 9%

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/p...ses/031309E.pdf

[Alta4ever]

Do waste your breath Progressive liberal up there doesn't seem to understand Canadian Politics she is very happy to be ignorant of the polling reality. Under these Cirumstances with the economy Harpers support should be taking a beating. The liberals polling numbers should have changed almost over night, Ignatieff has really done noting but restore the liberal core vote, and it may just be that a few are returning because it isn't Dion in charge. She doesn't seem to gt that Liberal is more about brand than leader or substance. after all they are nothing a but a prinicple less populist party.

[waldo]

Alta4ever, of course you're frustrated with the ever diminishing Harper Conservative polling numbers. Certainly, it's tough to accept that the opportunity for that ever elusive Harper Conservative majority has been lost. Of course, it's outright humbling for you to recognize the last 'hurrah' of a failed, beaten Harper Conservative party... conservative in name only.

don't worry - be happy!

[Alta4ever]

Alta4ever, of course you're frustrated with the ever diminishing Harper Conservative polling numbers. Certainly, it's tough to accept that the opportunity for that ever elusive Harper Conservative majority has been lost. Of course, it's outright humbling for you to recognize the last 'hurrah' of a failed, beaten Harper Conservative party... conservative in name only.

don't worry - be happy!

who's frustrated we are hearing about how bad the economy is on every channel all the time this always drops the governing parties numbers what is astounding is that for how great Ignateiff is he Can't even bring the polls higher the CPC. He is in his honey moon period and can't jump ahead with the problems that have always seen a governing party drop in the numbers. After Dion became liberal leader the Liberals actually polled higher then the conservatives during his honey moon period. I understand very well what happens in these events and what is happy now is actually breaking that historical precident. With the economy and the current political situation the liberals should have buried the CPC. Harper is still both beating all the other party leaders in leadership polls and who would best manage the economy during this time of instablity. Sorry but I do see this for what it is, and that fact that liberals can't poll higher then the conservatives right now is pathetic.

[Oleg Bach]

If the conservatives started acting like conservatives instead of neo-cons...which is not conservative - Translated neo-con means highly orgainized elite crime. You can not stand there as Harper does and imagine yourself with your perfect hair and power suit that you are a conservative when your field of investment only concerns what American elite crime families expect of you. The perpetuation of continued profits from military contracts is the only reason we are in Afghanistan. There is no other reason that can be put forward - Afghanistan is a non-issue - a non-entity in the domestic scheme of things - Look at the last American administrators who made billions from the WMD ruse - and Harper follows suit - MONEY and more money for those who have money is not a policy to govern by..as for the closing gap - Ignateiff is a cut throat opportunist who understands how Harper rules and who he rules for - and he will dismantle Harper if our PM does not dump the Americans and tell them to F off..that's the bottom line - We need a bottom line that Canada benefits by..not a bunch of paraistes who have controled billions through careful and controlled corruption for 50 years..enough is enough!

[capricorn]

Alta4ever, of course you're frustrated with the ever diminishing Harper Conservative polling numbers.

A Liberal government will be almost exactly the same as a Conservative government. Why worry if nothing's going to change? The only caveat is that more people will be looking over the shoulders of Liberal Cabinet ministers, especially around money matters. Gotta watch those sticky fingers.

[jdobbin]

A Liberal government will be almost exactly the same as a Conservative government.

So how will you make a decision?

[DrGreenthumb]

So how will you make a decision?

Lets see Ignatief come out with a sane drug policy, maybe let each province look after pot laws like they do with alcohol and you would see Iggy's numbers bump up 15% within a week, even if that was the only difference between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Then the bible thumpers can have Alberta and they can watch all of their young people leave the oil fields for "greener" patures. Seriously letting each province be in charge of its own pot laws would let people move to the area that best served their pursuit of happiness. We are only allowed to inhabit this plane of existance for a very short time, and don't we all have a right to spend that time experiencing life how WE want to? (of course I mean so long as we do not victimize anyone in the process) I'd be willing to bet my house that the province with the harshest pot laws would see the greatest population drop in the under 40 demographic.

[Progressive Tory]

It is indeed interesting......however I tend to look at things a little differently. I think you'll admit that Dion almost wrecked the Liberal Party single-handedly - his approval ratings were minisdcule and he drove away a large part of the Liberal base -

I agree to a certain extent. I don't think Dion was quite as bad as many think, but he was not cuthroat so was an easy target. The Conservatives starting attacking him from the moment he became leader. He had actually started to gain ground after the debates until Steve Murphy aired the false start.

Instant poll finds Dion clear debate winner

The online poll found 40 per cent of voters said Mr. Dion won the debate, compared with 24 per cent who gave the contest to Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper came in at 16 per cent, NDP Leader Jack Layton at 11 per cent, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May at just 1 per cent

Oct. 5, 2008 Nanos Poll Cons and Libs within 4 points.

The problem with Harper in a campaign comes when he tries to wing it. He campaigned in a bubble, but once outside that bubble, he choked. If he couldn't get a majority against Dion, he never will, especially now with Igantieff not be an easy target.

Another important number to look at is the fact that Liberals were driven away at the polls, but none parked themselves with the Conservatives. In fact, they were also down by 170,000 votes from 2006. Ignatieff just has to bring back the 850,000 defactors who didn't see the Cons as a viable option, so just stayed home.

Most of the Cons support, and what is keeping their numbers up, come from the West; where there are just 102 seats, or roughly 1/3. Harper started the last election in Majority territory; he'll be starting this one in barely a minority.

[Progressive Tory]

- from the "poll thread"... thanks to Vancouver King for highlighting the March 13th Harris Decima poll results:

Thanks for that and I just saw another one that had the Liberals at 34% and the Conservatives 32%. Considering that it is not even an election campaign, where Harper always starts off strong, but loses ground when he speaks; this could be quite interesting.

[Progressive Tory]

Do waste your breath Progressive liberal up there doesn't seem to understand Canadian Politics she is very happy to be ignorant of the polling reality. Under these Cirumstances with the economy Harpers support should be taking a beating.

Actually, according to the poll, though the Cons are slipping a bit, they are pretty much the same as they were after the election. Ignatieff did start to turn things around almost overnight, remember?

And don't forget Harper had a choice. He could be in opposition right now where he excels; bashing the Coalition over the economy and insuring a Conservative Majority for the rest of his natural life. Instead he ran a campaign of lies just to keep his job; so if there is a God, I guess this is his punishment for that. He gets to wear the economy now.

[Progressive Tory]

who's frustrated we are hearing about how bad the economy is on every channel all the time this always drops the governing parties numbers

Actually, Harper is about the same as he was in October, with the West keeping his numbers up. I was actually surprised, that even though Alberta was at 70%; the rest of the West hovered around 50%. I thought it would have been higher in all western provinces.

Maybe Harper's popularity in spite of the economy, would rise if he actually made Canadians believe he cared a fig. His priorities during the economic crisis:

- Add 18 senators at a price tag of 2 1/2 million in salaries alone.

- Overstuff his cabinet with extra salaries and gas guzzling limos.

- constantly remind Canadians that his party has more money than they could ever hope to have

- plan attack ads because Ignatieff is gaining in the polls.

- find a loophole to once again poke the opposition in the eye by preventing them from getting loans.

- bluster over a fake threat to national security that was a gift to political cartoonists but an embarrassment to Canadians.

- Give one speech about the economy to the general public and quite another to your conservative millionaires.

- Cook the books so we have no idea what's really going on.

Leaves little time to worry about something as trivial as a recession.

[Progressive Tory]

A Liberal government will be almost exactly the same as a Conservative government. Why worry if nothing's going to change? The only caveat is that more people will be looking over the shoulders of Liberal Cabinet ministers, especially around money matters. Gotta watch those sticky fingers.

Will this be before or after the Conservatives lick the sticky off theirs. When he put Flaherty in charge of the public purse, Ontarians never stopped looking over their shoulders. He didn't let us down. Just as corrupt- more money to steal.

And he's such a good money manager.

The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again, and expect a different result.

Such is the case with Jim Flaherty, one of the most untrustworthy politicians to ever hold fiscal office in this country. This is the fine gent who professed he had balanced Ontario’s books in 2003, only for Ontarians to learn upon a change in government that Flaherty had left behind a $6 billion deficit, as uncovered by Provincial Auditor Erik Peters....

His friends get richer as we get poorer.

[Progressive Tory]

Lets see Ignatief come out with a sane drug policy, maybe let each province look after pot laws like they do with alcohol and you would see Iggy's numbers bump up 15% within a week, even if that was the only difference between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

Don't laugh but I actually proposed that, in kind of a tongue in cheek way, when they asked what I would like to have discussed at the convention. I doubt they'd make it a policy, but may very well put it on the floor when they're in power. Didn't someone in the NDP just do that? Anyone who doesn't think pot should be legal is obviously using too much crack. They need to get on a softer drug that won't fry your brain cells as quicky or alcohol or give you cancer as quickly as nicotine.

[85RZ500]

And don't forget Harper had a choice. He could be in opposition right now where he excels; bashing the Coalition over the economy and insuring a Conservative Majority for the rest of his natural life.

Yep, I winced when he let that chance go by.

The coalition would have imploded, the resulting election would have been Harper's to lose.

That said I agree that if Ignatief is the God he believes he is, the Lib #'s should be much higher.

Your list of priorities pales when compared to the lying, thieving, and morally corrupt Liberals. Harper is the lessor of evils and if we vote again we will support his party.

LOL you're a pothead?, so that's the source of your Iggylove

Edited March 17, 2009 by 85RZ500

[Progressive Tory]

If the conservatives started acting like conservatives instead of neo-cons...which is not conservative -

Exactly. We no longer have a Conservative party in Canada, but if we ever do again, I may give them another look, provided the three stooges, Baird, Flaherty and Clement, are out of the picture. Dope, crook and conman.

[Moonbox]

Exactly. We no longer have a Conservative party in Canada, but if we ever do again, I may give them another look, provided the three stooges, Baird, Flaherty and Clement, are out of the picture. Dope, crook and conman.

I'm completely in awe of your stamina on these forums. Disregard the fact that 90% of what you write about is Ignatieff cheerleading and not even worth responding to anymore, I still have to give you credit for single-handedly keeping half the threads here alive all by yourself.

Quantity over quality I guess eh? If you natter enough and completely drown out the opposition with the sheer volume of text and the number of posts your lifestyle somehow allows, eventually you have to be right? Right????

[OddSox]

Exactly. We no longer have a Conservative party in Canada, but if we ever do again, I may give them another look, provided the three stooges, Baird, Flaherty and Clement, are out of the picture. Dope, crook and conman.

It's one thing if you disagree with them, but I don't think it's very productive or mature to call them names...

[Progressive Tory]

It's one thing if you disagree with them, but I don't think it's very productive or mature to call them names...

I disagree with their corruption but since it's my money they're stealing, I've paid for the right to call them whatever I want.

[Progressive Tory]

I'm completely in awe of your stamina on these forums. with the sheer volume of text and the number of posts your lifestyle somehow allows, eventually you have to be right? Right????

Thank you. Just posting a recent poll that's in the news and presenting my view of what it means. Sitting in a wheelchair all day does afford me a wonderful lifestyle. You should be so lucky.

[Oleg Bach]

I'm completely in awe of your stamina on these forums. Disregard the fact that 90% of what you write about is Ignatieff cheerleading and not even worth responding to anymore, I still have to give you credit for single-handedly keeping half the threads here alive all by yourself.

Quantity over quality I guess eh? If you natter enough and completely drown out the opposition with the sheer volume of text and the number of posts your lifestyle somehow allows, eventually you have to be right? Right????

Keep picking at the mountain long enough and you have a gravel pit. It's about endurance. It's about the ability to imagine every possible scenario - and out of all of those eventually you will hit the mark and be right...I believe it's called diligence.

[Alta4ever]

I disagree with their corruption but since it's my money they're stealing, I've paid for the right to call them whatever I want.

Really if that is the case then I have some names for you liberals.

[Oleg Bach]

Really if that is the case then I have some names for you liberals.

I have a bag of names...one dollar an insult..how many do you want?