How the Conservatives will win their majority

[Barts]

The Ignatieff Liberals have given Stephen Harper and the Conservatives a clear route to a majority government. Here’s how it will happen, unless Harper does something stupid again.

To achieve a majority, Harper needs to win seats in Quebec. He failed to get his majority in the last election, in part, because he alienated Quebec voters who then supported the Bloc.

Only one opposition party's support is needed for Harper to remain in power. Harper can survive as long as he judges necessary with Bloc support in Parliament. Duceppe is a pragmatic leader whose interest is only Quebec. He’ll support whichever party gives Quebec the best deal, as he's always done, and as he's reiterated today (28 January). Conveniently, Harper can improve his electoral fortunes in Quebec and remain in power as long as chooses by appeasing the Bloc with Quebec goodies. Duceppe is very shrewd; he will exploit Harper to Quebec’s advantage in any way he can. Harper who will do anything to remain in power will comply with Duceppe’s Quebec demands.

Harper will not lose his base in the west nor his support in rural Ontario because those right wing voters have nowhere to go. Also, with the deficit genie out of the bottle, and dire economic situation as an excuse, Harper can borrow and spend in whatever ways serve his political ends. That means he can win support in eastern Canada, too.

Unless Harper succumbs to his own worst inclinations, he can win support right across Canada so that in 4 years he can go to people and get his majority mandate. And, there is nothing that the Liberals or the NDP can do to stop him, thanks to Ignatieff.

Unless they do something truly stupid, we can expect that the Conservatives will remain in power for at least the next 8-10 years. If they’re smart, Harper can remain in power for even longer than that.

Edited January 28, 2009 by Barts

[normanchateau]

Unless they do something truly stupid, we can expect that the Conservatives will remain in power for at least the next 8-10 years.

:lol: :lol:

[ToadBrother]

:lol: :lol:

I know. Isn't that the most incredible thing you ever heard? Harper will be lucky if he's leading the Tories in two years. Eight to ten? I mean, what are some of these guys smoking?

[Progressive Tory]

He's already done something stupid. He waged a war against the 'Separatists'. He led Canadians into a war against the 'Separatists. Now he's going to make a deal with the 'Separatists'? (Hmmm. Where have I heard that before). They called Duceppe a citizen of France. France can't help them now.

That was funny though.

[Mr.Canada]

Harper will most likely go on to something else within 2 to 5 years. The boogeyman will be gone.

[normanchateau]

Isn't that the most incredible thing you ever heard?

It's outright delusional just like the false belief that Harper has principles.

[Progressive Tory]

Harper will most likely go on to something else within 2 to 5 years. The boogeyman will be gone.

Harper's boogey man is his own inflated ego. He won't show his face on the political scene again.

[ToadBrother]

Harper will most likely go on to something else within 2 to 5 years. The boogeyman will be gone.

Yes, I'm sure the party will let him keep his dignity, much as new Chinese Emperors would let the old court eunuchs keep their balls.

[normanchateau]

Harper will most likely go on to something else within 2 to 5 years.

When Harper left Reform after his falling out with Preston Manning, he went on to head the National Citizens Coalition. He probably won't be going there this time. Here's what the National Citizens Coalition has to say about the Harper budget:

"This (budget) is going to be a disaster for Stephen Harper," said Gerry Nicholls, who worked with Harper at the National Citizens Coalition.

"It will shatter his credibility because just a couple of months ago he was talking about balanced budgets. He's doing a complete 180."

http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/canada/article/172505

No wonder Manning fired Harper as Reform's Finance critic and replaced him with Herb Grubel, an economist.

Unlike Harper, Grubel was actually employed as an economist.

[jdobbin]

Harper will not lose his base in the west nor his support in rural Ontario because those right wing voters have nowhere to go. Also, with the deficit genie out of the bottle, and dire economic situation as an excuse, Harper can borrow and spend in whatever ways serve his political ends. That means he can win support in eastern Canada, too.

You do realize that when Mulroney did this with the CF-18 contract, he helped create the Reform party?

[Barts]

You do realize that when Mulroney did this with the CF-18 contract, he helped create the Reform party?

And do you remember that the creation of the Reform Party insured the Liberals a long and prosperous life under Chretien? Reform never did form a government. It had to make common cause with the "hated" Progressive Conservatives to overcome the Liberals, and even then they've yet to get a majority. Even though they've been confronting the weakest Liberal Party and the silliest Liberal leaders in many, many decades.

Harper has a chance to put back together again the Mulroney coalition and take power for at least a decade, more if he can keep the stupid wing of his party under its rocks. It will take at least that long for the left to get its act together. If the extreme "Reform" right wants to split off again from the latest Conservative brand, that will help the center left or left assume power sooner.

[jdobbin]

And do you remember that the creation of the Reform Party insured the Liberals a long and prosperous life under Chretien? Reform never did form a government. It had to make common cause with the "hated" Progressive Conservatives to overcome the Liberals, and even then they've yet to get a majority. Even though they've been confronting the weakest Liberal Party and the silliest Liberal leaders in many, many decades.

I do realize that. You should ask Harper why he was one of the people who did that.

The reason they will tell you is that the awarding of the contract to Quebec was the law straw.

Now you are saying that is exactly what the present Tories need to do.

Harper has a chance to put back together again the Mulroney coalition and take power for at least a decade, more if he can keep the stupid wing of his party under its rocks. It will take at least that long for the left to get its act together. If the extreme "Reform" right wants to split off again from the latest Conservative brand, that will help the center left or left assume power sooner.

So you think he will bring separatists into the government and still expect them not stab him in the back?

[Barts]

I do realize that. You should ask Harper why he was one of the people who did that.

The reason they will tell you is that the awarding of the contract to Quebec was the law straw.

Now you are saying that is exactly what the present Tories need to do.

So you think he will bring separatists into the government and still expect them not stab him in the back?

I'm laying out the path that Harper will likely take to form a majority government; it's the only path he has. Harper doesn't need to bring separatists into the government. To remain in power for as long as the constitution allows, all he has to do is give the Bloc reason to support him in the House of Commons. Goodies for Quebec will accomplish not only that but also give Conservative candidates, rather than Liberals, a chance to get elected in Quebec.

If the old Reform wing of the Conservatives decides that giving Quebec goodies to keep Duceppe's and the Bloc's support is unpalatable, it can always break away again and form the New Reform Party, if they like. And once again the Conservatives will be out of power as the right fragments.

As I say, the only thing Harper has to fear is the extreme wing of his own party. If keeps them in check and his own devils, he can form a majority that could last many, many terms. Of course, he'll have to make common cause with the Bloc, something he's shown he's more than willing to do.

[jdobbin]

I'm laying out the path that Harper will likely take to form a majority government; it's the only path he has. Harper doesn't need to bring separatists into the government. To remain in power for as long as the constitution allows, all he has to do is give the Bloc reason to support him in the House of Commons. Goodies for Quebec will accomplish not only that but also give Conservative candidates, rather than Liberals, a chance to get elected in Quebec.

Goodies for Quebec is why Harper left the PCs in the first place.

If the old Reform wing of the Conservatives decides that giving Quebec goodies to keep Duceppe's and the Bloc's support is unpalatable, it can always break away again and form the New Reform Party, if they like. And once again the Conservatives will be out of power as the right fragments.

Think we are already hearing rumbling from fiscal conservatives today on the deficit issue. Hand things over to Quebec and get whacked even more.

As I say, the only thing Harper has to fear is the extreme wing of his own party. If keeps them in check and his own devils, he can form a majority that could last many, many terms. Of course, he'll have to make common cause with the Bloc, something he's shown he's more than willing to do.

We have been hearing from that wing all day today.

[SocDem]

If the old Reform wing of the Conservatives decides that giving Quebec goodies to keep Duceppe's and the Bloc's support is unpalatable, it can always break away again and form the New Reform Party, if they like. And once again the Conservatives will be out of power as the right fragments.

Hate to tell you Barts, but the old Reform wing of the Conservatives, really control the Conservative Party right now. And if they dont want Harper giving Quebec goodies, not only will he not get a majority, he wont be leader of the party any more. The small c's are not too thrilled with him right now, why would he alienate the only wing of the party that supports him......wait he did that today with the budget. Oh well.

[August1991]

Conveniently, Harper can improve his electoral fortunes in Quebec and remain in power as long as chooses by appeasing the Bloc with Quebec goodies.

Barts, you show a remarkable misunderstanding of Quebec society. I think you seem to imagine Quebec as a single person to be appeased when in fact it is several million people with various opinions.

The Conservative budget has a nice $200 million gift to renovate Montreal's Champlain bridge but I reckon that Harper is counting on a revamped House of Commons for future Tory success.

For example, centralizing all financial reguatory powers into a single federal agency based in Toronto is hardly an example of true federalism, or even a basis for wise financial controls. But it does have political appeal in some circles.

Edited January 29, 2009 by August1991

[Progressive Tory]

Hate to tell you Barts, but the old Reform wing of the Conservatives, really control the Conservative Party right now. And if they dont want Harper giving Quebec goodies, not only will he not get a majority, he wont be leader of the party any more. The small c's are not too thrilled with him right now, why would he alienate the only wing of the party that supports him......wait he did that today with the budget. Oh well.

That's it in a nutshell. To make Canadians believe that he was moving to the centre, he kept the socons bound and gagged. Caving by allowing massive deficits to save his job, has the small 'c's now claiming he has gone too far left. What's he got left?

He's going to have to go back to his original base, if they'll still have him.

Trying to blame this budget on the opposition is ridiculous after trying to convince Canadians that he was invincible, and could rule with a steady hand. To save his job he gave up every single principle he claimed to have.

[Barts]

Barts, you show a remarkable misunderstanding of Quebec society. I think you seem to imagine Quebec as a single person to be appeased when in fact it is several million people with various opinions.

There is nothing in what I've written to suggest that I imagine Quebec as a single person. Quite the contrary. The single person Harper needs to appease in Duceppe. This a repeat of my previous postings. Harper appeases Duceppe by insuring future budgets contain things for Quebec that Duceppe will approve of. With me so far? Goodies that appease Duceppe will increase Harper's support in Quebec. Haven't lost you yet have I? The increased support in Quebec will increase the likelihood of the Conservatives electing MPs from Quebec, likely at the expense of the Liberals rather than the Bloc. Still following? Now, quick quiz: where in that analysis is any hint of imagining Quebec to be a "single person"? That's right nowhere.

Now feel free to comment on my political logic; but please comment on what I actually said not on what you the single person imagined.

[Mr.Canada]

Hate to tell you Barts, but the old Reform wing of the Conservatives, really control the Conservative Party right now. And if they dont want Harper giving Quebec goodies, not only will he not get a majority, he wont be leader of the party any more. The small c's are not too thrilled with him right now, why would he alienate the only wing of the party that supports him......wait he did that today with the budget. Oh well.

This is entirely absurd. If the Reformers have control of the party why are most the Cabinet Ministers Red Tories? Why did Harper make a Red Tory budget?

If the Reformers have control their doing a good job hiding it. Trust me I wish they did as this Liberal Lite crap is making me sick.

[Muddy]

Reformers are on the outside looking in of the Party. Let there be no mistake at how crafty Harper is. I know after the merge how many Reformers were who had laboured for years for real change,conservative change, were shunted aside. Reform only lives in the hearts of those who were on a mission to save Canada from once again selling out their children. With this budget we have done it again. Muldoon and Trudeau must be smiling.

[Progressive Tory]

Why did Harper make a Red Tory budget?

A red Tory budget? This is an anti-Red Tory Budget. This goes against everything a fiscally conservative Red Tory stands for. We support substainable social programs, but recognize that need can sometimes prevail.

I could have accepted a moderate deficit with no revenue reduction, and future tax cut rewards if this thing got turned around.

This budget is a train wreck. Clearly you have no idea what a Red Tory is and if people in Harper's cabinet can support this, they don't know either.

[capricorn]

This budget is a train wreck.

Then why is your beloved Iggy supporting it?

[Mr.Canada]

Then why is your beloved Iggy supporting it?

Precisely the trap I was setting, hahaha, nice. I wouldn't expect a response, maybe he'll try to blame PM Harper in some fashion.

[Progressive Tory]

Precisely the trap I was setting, hahaha, nice. I wouldn't expect a response, maybe he'll try to blame PM Harper in some fashion.

He is supporting it, as I just posted on another thread, because he knows we have to got on with it. He knows it's flawed, but the only way to prove that is to allow it to fail. Who knows. Maybe there is a snowball's chance in hell of it doing something good. At least the Cons only have three months. Shouldn't be able to do too much damage in that short of time.

Again, it is a Conservative Budget. Their baby. They could have stuck to their ..er...em.. principles (?) and said no. They chose power instead. They're now poised to lose both.

[capricorn]

He knows it's flawed, but the only way to prove that is to allow it to fail.

If Count Iggy knows the budget is flawed and it will not deliver what is necessary to lift us out of the looming recession then he has a moral obligation to the country to defeat it. If he stands by and risks the economic welfare of the country to prove a point, then he is no better than any other opportunistic and gutless politician.

Again, it is a Conservative Budget. Their baby.

You think Canadians will forget that the Liberals endorsed the budget? I don't think so.

You think it hasn't been noticed that the budget resembles a Liberal document? A number of media pundits have remarked on this.

They could have stuck to their ..er...em.. principles (?) and said no. They chose power instead. They're now poised to lose both.

The budget was crafted taking into consideration the views and concerns collected through a wide range of consultations with experts, the provinces and Canadians at large. The Conservatives chose to respond to the economic crisis which meant leaving aside their ideological preferences. This is principled action, not a power play. Unlike Iggy who would allow a budget that he thinks will further harm the economy.