Barts

If the Conservatives truly wanted to pass a fair elections act they would have first consulted widely with Canadians, political parties, election officials, and non-governmental pro-democracy groups, and sought broad consensus. Bill C-23 is not a "fair" elections act. It is an act intended facilitate voter suppression, fraud, and enhance the monies available to the Conservative Party during elections. It is intended, too, to make it easier to commit crimes against the Elections Act and not get caught.

If this has been noted in a previous post, my apologies. I haven't canvassed the entire thread. However, the fact is that with the exception of many poor people, the price of energy could double in Canada and most Canadians could conserve well-enough that their energy costs would not rise. It is better to increase energy costs and use less energy (i.e. conserve) and keep the out-of-pocket expenditures the same than increase the use of fossil fuels.

I saw the show and Pat Martin was not only correct in the outrage, he also showed Candice Hoeppner to be the usual Conservative "talking point" stooge and liar. The "in and out" scheme is election fraud pure and simple. The Conservatives conspired to create a scheme to exceed their national campaign spending limit by fraudulently claiming national expense as local campaign expenses. Then they collected from taxpayers reimbursements for supposed "local" campaign expenses that they were not entitled to. So, the Conservatives knowingly and illegally exceeded their national campaign spending limits, and fraudulently took money from Canadian taxpayers as local campaign reimbursements. And, as Pat Martin pointed out on Power and Politics, this isn't a new fraud for Conservatives. In 1999, Vic Toews, the Minister of Public Safety was convicted of election overspending when he was running provincially in Manitoba. The Conservatives are crooks and are guilty of defrauding the Canadian people.

It would seem that the ad in question is based on a fabrication. Please read Another Healthcare Lie, and the Lying Liar That's Telling It. The story says in part,

1. Public 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No 6. No 7. No

A plague on all their houses! I lean left, way left, and I'd hoped that the Liberals, in particular Michael Ignatieff, would be an alternative to Harper and the Conservatives. But under Ignatieff, I can't tell the difference any more. There is no daylight between Harper and Ignatieff. Their only vision of Canada is "Me! Me! Pick me!". Ignatieff supported every aspect of Harper's budget. The rest of his silliness about demanding accountability was, just that, silliness. Just as I don't believe a word Harper says, I don't believe Ignatieff or the Liberals. As scary as it is, I really don't care anymore. Let's just get a majority and "f**k" the country, so everybody can get a dose of reality.

I'd rather be in Harper's position (and I loathe him) because he is the Prime Minister and, as result, has more control over events than Ignatieff. By putting a stake into the coalition, Ignatieff made himself irrelevant, because it's Duceppe who Harper has to appease, and that will be cheap to do, particularly because it's in Duceppe's and the Bloc's financial interest to avoid an election as long as possible. A goody for Quebec and Duceppe is owned by Harper. Within three years the recession will have bottomed out and we'll be on the mend. Harper will claim he was right. Ignatieff will try to take credit by saying he forced the budget on Harper. But who would you vote for? The man who led Canada through the shoals of recession, or the guy who said he could have done a better job? As history shows, Canadians will forget what has transpired over these few months. Harper has only one serious enemy he needs to concern himself with--and that's Stephen Harper.

Exactly! If Harper can avoid succumbing to the worst aspects of his character, he'll be Prime Minister for a very long time. The Liberals and NDP will keep the left disunited. The Bloc can be appeased by the Prime Minister giving Quebec a few goodies from time to time or when Bloc supported is needed in the House.

Ignatieff, has been a huge disappointment. He completely caved to Harper. The best he could muster was silly bluster, and threats to do "something" if Harper doesn't get good marks on his report card. Ignatieff acted like a petulant, toothless, old-fart teacher.

There is nothing in what I've written to suggest that I imagine Quebec as a single person. Quite the contrary. The single person Harper needs to appease in Duceppe. This a repeat of my previous postings. Harper appeases Duceppe by insuring future budgets contain things for Quebec that Duceppe will approve of. With me so far? Goodies that appease Duceppe will increase Harper's support in Quebec. Haven't lost you yet have I? The increased support in Quebec will increase the likelihood of the Conservatives electing MPs from Quebec, likely at the expense of the Liberals rather than the Bloc. Still following? Now, quick quiz: where in that analysis is any hint of imagining Quebec to be a "single person"? That's right nowhere. Now feel free to comment on my political logic; but please comment on what I actually said not on what you the single person imagined.

I'm laying out the path that Harper will likely take to form a majority government; it's the only path he has. Harper doesn't need to bring separatists into the government. To remain in power for as long as the constitution allows, all he has to do is give the Bloc reason to support him in the House of Commons. Goodies for Quebec will accomplish not only that but also give Conservative candidates, rather than Liberals, a chance to get elected in Quebec. If the old Reform wing of the Conservatives decides that giving Quebec goodies to keep Duceppe's and the Bloc's support is unpalatable, it can always break away again and form the New Reform Party, if they like. And once again the Conservatives will be out of power as the right fragments. As I say, the only thing Harper has to fear is the extreme wing of his own party. If keeps them in check and his own devils, he can form a majority that could last many, many terms. Of course, he'll have to make common cause with the Bloc, something he's shown he's more than willing to do.

And do you remember that the creation of the Reform Party insured the Liberals a long and prosperous life under Chretien? Reform never did form a government. It had to make common cause with the "hated" Progressive Conservatives to overcome the Liberals, and even then they've yet to get a majority. Even though they've been confronting the weakest Liberal Party and the silliest Liberal leaders in many, many decades. Harper has a chance to put back together again the Mulroney coalition and take power for at least a decade, more if he can keep the stupid wing of his party under its rocks. It will take at least that long for the left to get its act together. If the extreme "Reform" right wants to split off again from the latest Conservative brand, that will help the center left or left assume power sooner.

The Ignatieff Liberals have given Stephen Harper and the Conservatives a clear route to a majority government. Here’s how it will happen, unless Harper does something stupid again. To achieve a majority, Harper needs to win seats in Quebec. He failed to get his majority in the last election, in part, because he alienated Quebec voters who then supported the Bloc. Only one opposition party's support is needed for Harper to remain in power. Harper can survive as long as he judges necessary with Bloc support in Parliament. Duceppe is a pragmatic leader whose interest is only Quebec. He’ll support whichever party gives Quebec the best deal, as he's always done, and as he's reiterated today (28 January). Conveniently, Harper can improve his electoral fortunes in Quebec and remain in power as long as chooses by appeasing the Bloc with Quebec goodies. Duceppe is very shrewd; he will exploit Harper to Quebec’s advantage in any way he can. Harper who will do anything to remain in power will comply with Duceppe’s Quebec demands. Harper will not lose his base in the west nor his support in rural Ontario because those right wing voters have nowhere to go. Also, with the deficit genie out of the bottle, and dire economic situation as an excuse, Harper can borrow and spend in whatever ways serve his political ends. That means he can win support in eastern Canada, too. Unless Harper succumbs to his own worst inclinations, he can win support right across Canada so that in 4 years he can go to people and get his majority mandate. And, there is nothing that the Liberals or the NDP can do to stop him, thanks to Ignatieff. Unless they do something truly stupid, we can expect that the Conservatives will remain in power for at least the next 8-10 years. If they’re smart, Harper can remain in power for even longer than that.

Actually, the two people who will decide if there is an election are Harper and Duceppe. The NDP will always vote against the Conservatives/Harper. The Liberals will bring down the government only when it suits their needs. Harper will never give them that opportunity. All Harper needs to do to stay in power is to throw Duceppe a Quebec bone, and Duceppe will support the Conservatives, as he has made clear. Harper only needs one of the Opposition party's support. Duceppe's support is cheap. Harper will dissolve Parliament when it suits him. He'll stay in power as long as he wants by appeasing Duceppe. The Liberals and the NDP are no longer relevant, and the Conservative's fate is in the hands of the Separatists.

Liberal dream! Do you think that Harper and the Conservatives are not going to use the Liberal's appeasement to build, build, build for the next election? Harper will not remain meek and chastened, if he ever was. By Ignatieff caving to Harper, the Conservatives are not running scared. They're laughing all the way to the ballot box with dreams of majorities dancing in their heads.