Canadian Political Polls

[Wild Bill]

We've heard your position on the Coalition many times. Yet, you offer no solutions to the deteriorated situation in Ottawa. Since the last Election committee work has been stymied and Question Period is but a forum for "gotcha" video bites. Nothing is getting done up there.

Having team players for awhile will be refreshing. There is no sloppy legislation that they institute that cannot be undone with time. Please tell us you also are unhappy with status quo.

If you've read my position on the coalition many times I would think you also would have read that I too am unhappy with the status quo. I just don't happen to agree with you on your solutions. Or, it would appear, with Trendlines.

My solution is simple. A strong Tory majority!

Failing that, a change in leadership of the Liberal party so that they begin to represent the principles of Classic Liberalism. I would have confidence in giving a majority to such a Liberal Party as well.

The problem I have with Trendlines is that I can't believe they can be objective with their stats when they editorialize from such a partisan standpoint. I just can't give them the credibility that I give to the more formal polling organizations.

[punked]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/16/ekos-poll.html

The Liberals certainly have taken a hit in regards to the election talk but now with no election in the offing for a few weeks, the focus now shifts to NDP and Bloc and their continued support of the government.

I think the electorate will have to chew over the new dynamic for a while. In all likelihood, some people probably in the poll were asked voter intention while thinking an election was imminent since the poll started September 9.

I think you mean the new dynamic of the Liberals supporting the Tories? You must have missed they are now voting and speeding up the new EI bill that the NDP got after the Liberals took their ball and went home this summer.

[M.Dancer]

Well, if it seems that the Bloc supports the Tories

...and the NDP supports the Tories

...and the Liberals support the Tories....

Then the Tories must be the best party there...

[LastViking]

If you've read my position on the coalition many times I would think you also would have read that I too am unhappy with the status quo. I just don't happen to agree with you on your solutions. Or, it would appear, with Trendlines.

My solution is simple. A strong Tory majority!

Failing that, a change in leadership of the Liberal party so that they begin to represent the principles of Classic Liberalism. I would have confidence in giving a majority to such a Liberal Party as well.

The problem I have with Trendlines is that I can't believe they can be objective with their stats when they editorialize from such a partisan standpoint. I just can't give them the credibility that I give to the more formal polling organizations.

We are in complete agreement that Canada would be better served with a CPC Majority. But that will not unfold in the near future. My point is that the Conservative MPs, especially PM Harper, seem unwilling to play with the other MPs in their normal course of conduct. Blame is easily apportioned to all Parties. Perhaps a series of weak Speakers is also a factor. Civility and compromise must be restored while the HofC is in Minority status - and hopefully thereafter. If the Conservatives cannot set the tone, then other (new) players are needed.

At this time, and under Westminster convention, that means giving the Opposition that role. Future Elections (and Leadership Conventions) will allow voters to send different MPs to get the job done (better). You may like the USA-style republic electoral systems better, but these are not the cards we have been dealt. Under Westminster, the PM either has the Command of the House (155 MPs), or he/she is out. Having the largest Party means nothing in Canada or the 30 other countries that share this parliamentary system - other than they get first crack at governance. Harper has not demonstrated that ability. Except by gamesmanship, he has not had the "real" Confidence of the House since the October election. He must change his methods - or go.

On commentary by opinion pollsters, it is clear that you rarely if ever visit their web sites. Over the past decade they have all been very vocal on their sense of the direction they feel the nation is going, promoting of alternatives, and opinions on what current sentiment is reflecting.

[waldo]

I think you mean the new dynamic of the Liberals supporting the Tories? You must have missed they are now voting and speeding up the new EI bill that the NDP got after the Liberals took their ball and went home this summer.

... the EI bill that the "NDP got"

the actions within that committee, rather the inaction and monkey-wrench tactics of the Conservatives within that committee are well discussed/understood.

[punked]

... the EI bill that the "NDP got"

the actions within that committee, rather the inaction and monkey-wrench tactics of the Conservatives within that committee are well discussed/understood.

Yah I love he said she said things. All I know the Liberals walked away looking like a bunch of babies while the Committee kept meeting with out them. Probably Mike Savage couldn't stand the heat eh?

[jdobbin]

I would says these polls simply show that people don't want an election. In the event of an election, I would think that the numbers would change.

Several of the polls confirm that that the issue of an election did affect the numbers.

I don't know that the issue of an election call would be prominent when an election does happen. Despite the resistance to elections in general (including the last one the Tories called), they quickly move on to other issues when the campaign is on.

Since we are not having an election, we'll see what happens to the poll numbers. The focus now has to be on what the NDP will do.

[punked]

Since we are not having an election, we'll see what happens to the poll numbers. The focus now has to be on what the NDP will do.

Why did the Liberals give up official opposition already? Good pass the ball to someone who can get things done.

[Topaz]

Yah I love he said she said things. All I know the Liberals walked away looking like a bunch of babies while the Committee kept meeting with out them. Probably Mike Savage couldn't stand the heat eh?

You must not have seen the debates in the House today on EI. The Libs walked away because they were getting no where with the Tories on EI and Harper always planned that in June. I knew by the way Harper talked it, in June, it was just another stalking act! Harper will do or say anything to keep from losing power. Go to C-pac website and watch the debates and listen what the Libs say BEFORE judging. Can a Tory be fair and open-minded?

[punked]

You must not have seen the debates in the House today on EI. The Libs walked away because they were getting no where with the Tories on EI and Harper always planned that in June. I knew by the way Harper talked it, in June, it was just another stalking act! Harper will do or say anything to keep from losing power. Go to C-pac website and watch the debates and listen what the Libs say BEFORE judging. Can a Tory be fair and open-minded?

Really because south of the boarder on Health Care reform even though got no where both sides meet all summer. It sends the wrong message to Canadians to walk away from the table after 2 or 3 meetings becuase you don't get what you want. That is politics you don't get to pick up your ball and go home when the lives of hundreds of thousands of Canadians hang in the balance.

The Liberals showed their true colours today on EI:

“The Liberals announced Thursday morning that they are offering to pass the bill quickly, in the hope of taking away the NDP's stated reason for keeping the Conservatives in office for the short term.

“We don't want to give Mr. Layton any alibis,” Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said.

http://www.hilltimes.com/html/cover_index....ion_ei/&c=1

So the Liberals don't want to help Canadians and could care less. They just want an election they just want to speed this up so they can have an election. It would have been nice if in his statement he said something about working Canadians but nope it was all about Jack. Hmmmmmm.

[Dave_ON]

So the Liberals don't want to help Canadians and could care less. They just want an election they just want to speed this up so they can have an election. It would have been nice if in his statement he said something about working Canadians but nope it was all about Jack. Hmmmmmm.

So the question still remains, if the ONLY reason Jack and the NDP are supporting the CPC is because of this lack luster EI bill what excuse will they come up with after that? You know as well as anyone else on this forum that extended benefit changes the CPC are doing aren't even close to what the NDP wanted. Not to mention the NDP weren't even consulted on the matter so they can't even claim it was their doing.

The only principle Layton is standing on at this point is he's likely to lose seats if an election is called. Can you in all honesty say that the EI package is even remotely what the NDP wanted? Or is it a rather convenient excuse to start supporting the CPC, one Mr. Harper just happened to throw out when he learned the LPC were going to vote no confidence?

[punked]

So the question still remains, if the ONLY reason Jack and the NDP are supporting the CPC is because of this lack luster EI bill what excuse will they come up with after that? You know as well as anyone else on this forum that extended benefit changes the CPC are doing aren't even close to what the NDP wanted. Not to mention the NDP weren't even consulted on the matter so they can't even claim it was their doing.

The only principle Layton is standing on at this point is he's likely to lose seats if an election is called. Can you in all honesty say that the EI package is even remotely what the NDP wanted? Or is it a rather convenient excuse to start supporting the CPC, one Mr. Harper just happened to throw out when he learned the LPC were going to vote no confidence?

What the NDP and Bloc said today was they want this sped through the second reading so it can go to committee. There if the Liberals don't cry and walk away like they did in the committee this summer, they can beef the bill up with amendments. Then it can go to the third reading as a much stronger bill get passed and help Canadians now. I know on this forum it is all about who's teams winning but this isn't about that it is about Canadians losing and the NDP and Bloc trying to change that while the Liberals play games. In the end I don't care who wins or who does it but helping working Canadians on EI needs to happen. It looks to me someone is trying to do that and the Liberals resent it with all that is in them.

[madmax]

... the EI bill that the "NDP got"

the actions within that committee, rather the inaction and monkey-wrench tactics of the Conservatives within that committee are well discussed/understood.

The Liberals had no intention of calling an election over the issue of EI. That was apparent in June, Supported by

Ignatieff in August and will be a completed action today as it appears all parties will support the minor funding increase of a singular EI program.

I have no idea how the Liberals could go through an entire summer and have no knowledge of this programs existence.

Regardless, the ROC unemployed who qualify can at least benefit from the change, and any party voting against it could look like jerks or asses unless there was some poison pill in the bill.

[madmax]

So the question still remains, if the ONLY reason Jack and the NDP are supporting the CPC is because of this lack luster EI bill what excuse will they come up with after that?

What is telling from the quote in the paper is the Liberal lack of concern about the hundreds of thousands tossed out of work. The comments to support the bill aren't that it helps people, they want to speed up the bill to get at those nasty socialists.

What is interesting in my area, is that the NDP is getting a bounce, the CPC is getting a bounce, and the LPC are getting a bounce.

Perhaps this is good for parliment.

[waldo]

What is telling from the quote in the paper is the Liberal lack of concern about the hundreds of thousands tossed out of work. The comments to support the bill aren't that it helps people, they want to speed up the bill to get at those nasty socialists.

What is interesting in my area, is that the NDP is getting a bounce, the CPC is getting a bounce, and the LPC are getting a bounce.

Perhaps this is good for parliment.

nonsense... the message was clear - Ignatieff said the Liberals wanted to help expedite the bill's passage but that Liberals also believe the EI bill "falls radically short of serious employment insurance reform." All intended to provide fast tracked assistance... to fast track the bill through Parliament - to dispense with debate and vote immediately.

however, apparently the NDP have now back-peddaled, do not support fast-tracking and are insisting on full committee meetings and 3-reading passage... cause the NDP now says its looked at the fine print and has concerns. More nonsense in the face of the intense pressure coming forward in the from raised concerns from within the party and CAW and Canadian Labour Congress criticism. Can Jack save face... retrieve some credibility... get further amendments???

[Dave_ON]

What the NDP and Bloc said today was they want this sped through the second reading so it can go to committee. There if the Liberals don't cry and walk away like they did in the committee this summer, they can beef the bill up with amendments. Then it can go to the third reading as a much stronger bill get passed and help Canadians now. I know on this forum it is all about who's teams winning but this isn't about that it is about Canadians losing and the NDP and Bloc trying to change that while the Liberals play games. In the end I don't care who wins or who does it but helping working Canadians on EI needs to happen. It looks to me someone is trying to do that and the Liberals resent it with all that is in them.

So you honestly believe that the NDP will manage to squeeze more out of the CPC? How much beef do you think you'll get out of the committee? Where was this NDP "can do" attitude on previous confidence motions? Where was their drive to champion EI benefits then when they voted no? The LPC proposals were far more comprehensive then this weak sauce tripe the CPC is baiting the NDP with.

Do you think the leopard has suddenly changed his spots and a new era of parliamentary cooperation will reign under the benevolent hand of Mr. Harper; rainbows and kittens all around perhaps? The sole blight on the whole socialist utopia being the evil, apathetic liberal dissidents?

I don't doubt for a minute that most of the politicians want to help Canadians, yes that includes the NDP, the CPC, the Bloc and the LPC, but their respective versions of "helping" are often diametrically opposed, none more so then that of the CPC and the NDP. Mr. Layton himself was quoted earlier in the fall after his meeting with Mr. Harper that the NDP was the least likely to support the CPC because of the ideological differences and the fact they don't agree with the direction they are taking the country. Now with the direction the CPC are heading is relatively unchanged yet they're garnering the support of the NDP.

Again "helping" Canadians is a term relative to your ideological perspective. Suffice to say it looks very bad that the NDP who were so adamantly against the direction of the Harper government has now reversed course now that the LPC won't support them. If the NDP wants to be official opposition, fine let them, but I think they're in for a surprise if they think Mr. Harper has been shown the error of his ways and will play nice. I guess we shall have to wait and see how this all plays out.

[punked]

More evidence the Conservatives are opening up a big lead on the Liberals.

Nanos has the results of a leadership poll up on their site. It was taken between September 3 and September 11 and involved 1,002 Canadians.

When asked who would make the best Prime Minister, people said:

Stephen Harper - 36.9%

Michael Ignatieff - 23.9%

Jack Layton - 11.4%

Gilles Duceppe - 5.0%

Elizabeth May - 4.0%

We are in Dion Territory here. Iggy the new Dion, or was Dion just the First Iggy?

[waldo]

for a guy whose guy sits at 11% in a meaningless poll...

[punked]

for a guy whose guy sits at 11% in a meaningless poll...

The problem with best PM polls is most pick between the two they think can win so it usually inflates Liberal or Con but not this time.

[Topaz]

The games are on going. Now, the NDP and the Bloc after getting a better read on the bill says there NEEDS to be changes and then the Finance Min. no changes, not now or ever. The Libs have 10 more chances if not more, to bring down the Tories within the year on a confidence vote. To make any Canadians angry guess what? They came back for a week and then they are taking a weeks vacation!! These guys make over 100,000, and they don't even work long enough to earn it and these guys work less than teachers, at least, since Harper became PM.

[madmax]

nonsense... the message was clear - Ignatieff said the Liberals wanted to help expedite the bill's passage but that Liberals also believe the EI bill "falls radically short of serious employment insurance reform." All intended to provide fast tracked assistance... to fast track the bill through Parliament - to dispense with debate and vote immediately.

The Liberals never even looked at the program. Its been in effect since May. The Liberals failed to do a 3 second search on service Canada, from June to September. Ignatieff turned away on EI reform in June, then in August. Few people take his words with conviction, however, what he is saying is true with regards to EI.

however, apparently the NDP have now back-peddaled, do not support fast-tracking and are insisting on full committee meetings and 3-reading passage... cause the NDP now says its looked at the fine print and has concerns.

Call it due diligence, or posturing because this is one small program change in a system that needs major reform.

More nonsense in the face of the intense pressure coming forward in the from raised concerns from within the party and CAW and Canadian Labour Congress criticism. Can Jack save face... retrieve some credibility... get further amendments???

The Liberals turned their back on the CLC in June and the NDP EI Bill is virtually a mimick of the CLC petition. Many Liberal MPs would not support those changes to EI, including Ignatieff and that was after voting for them on 1st and 2nd reading.

Ignatieff rejected the CLC proposals after he agreed with them.

The CAW, the CLC and the NDP all share the same concerns about eligibility. The media has taken the CAW analogy and applied it to one group, when infact there are many many people who will not benefit from this program and are long tenured, but caught in a Layoff preceding and during the peak of the Layoffs.

The Liberals and the BQ could join to improve EI measures in committee if they wished.

The Liberals do not appear interested in putting forth improvements to the current bill.

Essentially the Liberals do not want any responsibility on the EI file heading into an election. However, the Liberals would like some credit.

That is not unusual in politics.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Ekos and the breakdowns.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/09/24/ekos-we...-runaway-train/

National voter intention (MoE 2.1)

Conservatives: 37 (+0.9)

Liberals: 29.9 (-)

NDP: 13.8 (-2.7)

Green: 10.2 (+1.2)

Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 36.4 (-2.5)

Undecided: 15.6 (+2.3)

The Liberals are stagnant and hurting badly in Ontario.

The NDP are hurting in almost every region in this large sample poll.

The Tories are probably wishing they called an election but it isn't too late. When Harper gets back after his international meetings, he might pull the plug.

[Dave_ON]

Latest poll from Ekos and the breakdowns.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/09/24/ekos-we...-runaway-train/

The Liberals are stagnant and hurting badly in Ontario.

The NDP are hurting in almost every region in this large sample poll.

The Tories are probably wishing they called an election but it isn't too late. When Harper gets back after his international meetings, he might pull the plug.

Two interesting things about this poll is it confirms the steady downward trend of the NDP and how the Greens are up or about the same in almost all regions. I can't believe the Green Numbers in BC I don't think they've been this close to the 20's ever before.

[ToadBrother]

Two interesting things about this poll is it confirms the steady downward trend of the NDP and how the Greens are up or about the same in almost all regions. I can't believe the Green Numbers in BC I don't think they've been this close to the 20's ever before.

The problem with the Green vote in BC (and everywhere else, presumably) is that it isn't concentrated enough. Even in places like coastal Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands where you'd think they'd have a chance, they still place third. I'd say for the Greens to, in hard electoral numbers, actually do anything but bleed the NDP, they'd probably need to hit 15%. Less than that and they're not electing anyone, they're just screwing the NDP over.

[punked]

New Angus Reid poll shows the Conservatives pulling away. I really wonder if Iggy still wants that election. It is a good thing the NDP are saving us from a Harper majority because these are his strongest numbers in a long long time.

ANGUS REID STRATEGIES/TORONTO STAR POLL

Conservatives: 37%

Liberals: 29%

NDP: 16%

BQ: 9%

Greens: 8%

Looking at the internals of this poll this is pretty close to Conservative majority. They are up in Ontario from 2008 and have the same numbers in Qu from 2008. Election right now would only be good for Harper who would get a bump as the other three parties were blamed for the election.

Ontario

Con 44%

Lib 30%

NDP 16%

Qu

Con 21%

Lib 26%

NDP 12%

Bloc 35%

We can see from the poll that it isn't the party or the brand dragging the Liberals down but Iggy himself, who is pulling in Jack Layton numbers for best PM numbers.

Edited September 26, 2009 by punked