Canadian Political Polls

[Molly]

It may be 'a valid, and very important tool' Molly, but do you REALLY believe that more Canadians would approve of being handed a coalition of parties that lost an election than would not?

If they had a decent understanding of our parliamentary system, they'd realize that a coalition could only be formed by representatives who won an election.

We don't elect parties. We elect individuals.

[Molly]

Your perspective, Dancer, but not mine. I'm not seeking agreement or validation from you, so on this, there really isn't much room for debate .

However,

None of the present leaders have enough charisma to put together a majority...I don't see that as even being on the radar...if you wanted to see such a thing, go back 40 years and revisit trudeau mania

I DON'T want to see such a thing. Trudeaumania was irrational, and the mania element of it was not a a thing of which we should be proud.

Much of our parliamentary rules are based solely on tradition...and when a tradition fall into disuse or when a new tradition arrises it is usually because of utility.

Utility is a valid reason, but I don' see 'utility' as being the reason for the shifts I indicated. I see ignorance and disinformation as the cause... and that's why it saddens me.

[M.Dancer]

Utility is a valid reason, but I don' see 'utility' as being the reason for the shifts I indicated. I see ignorance and disinformation as the cause... and that's why it saddens me.

Well then, what new traditions do you see arrising or what old traditions do you see falling by the way side that are not based on utility?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Should this nation choose to ignore the detrimental effects of debt and deficit they will have created a division amongst citizens. If the candidates for election ignore to 5 ton elephant in the room which is the debt and deficit and the consequent impact on government spending, then the trend begun will reflect the USA option of filling the pockets of bankers will citizens taxes.

Edited September 12, 2009 by Jerry J. Fortin

[punked]

Please blame Stephen Harper for this "bias". On the Dec 8th graph, the CPC led 161-45 (by 2012).

Then they should be using a sinusoidal, or seventh degree model becuase those are numbers which are impossible given past performance then. It is a bad prediction model.

[Wild Bill]

If they had a decent understanding of our parliamentary system, they'd realize that a coalition could only be formed by representatives who won an election.

That's my point though, Molly! Most folks DON'T have a decent understanding. What's more, they don't care!

The common man has his own wants and his own sense of right and wrong. This determines how he will vote.

Nobody ever got voted in by lecturing or scolding people about the way things SHOULD be!

You know, when you try to be a rock against the waves you just get worn down. Much better to be a surf board if you want to get anywhere!

[Molly]

soooo... if everyone else is jumping off a cliff, I should join them.....

[jdobbin]

Nobody ever got voted in by lecturing or scolding people about the way things SHOULD be!

That's why the Liberal promise of free beer will be a huge success.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Latest+p...3217/story.html

The Conservatives have the support of 39 per cent of decided voters, according to the Ipsos Reid survey, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National. The Tory support level is unchanged from the last Ipsos national poll on Aug. 21.

The Liberals have 30 per cent support, up two percentage points from Aug. 21. The NDP dropped two points to 12 per cent, while the Green party fell two points to eight per cent. The NDP received 18 per cent support in the last federal election in October 2008, but have fallen to 12 per cent in four separate Ipsos polls since then.

It seems clear why the NDP might be looking at supporting the Tories. Their numbers continue to go down.

I continue to say the Tories would win an election if it was called this week but I do believe Liberal numbers in the House would increase.

[punked]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Latest+p...3217/story.html

It seems clear why the NDP might be looking at supporting the Tories. Their numbers continue to go down.

I continue to say the Tories would win an election if it was called this week but I do believe Liberal numbers in the House would increase.

IR always polls the NDP 3% lower then they are there is a blog on it. They also poll the Cons 2% over what they are. They really are the worst polling company.

[dlkenny]

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/story.html?id=1135891

The Liberal recovery post-Dion has been substantial and we have not even see a day in the House with Ignatieff at the helm.

Let's see if Harper tries to insert some poison into the budget as some still think we will try. I believe he wants an election before a large deficit is produced on his watch.

I don't think there's anything people can do about having a deficit at this point in time. The people of this country cried loudly for the government to step in and do something to prevent the entire collapse of our financial system. That's exactly what happened and unfortunately it's either they borrow the money or raise taxes and since Ignatieff says he wouldn't raise taxes he'd have to borrow the money.

Changing governments on the basis that the Conservatives ran a deficit makes no sense given the current economic times. In tough times people demand that the government help out and unfortunately that money has to come from somewhere, and ultimately the taxpayer foots the bill regardless of who is in power.

It is my personal opinion though that smaller government is more efficient and that instead of creating social safety nets for workers the governments should offer a hand up to small businesses and in particular offer more startup programs for entrepreneurs. I believe that small business is the engine of the economy and where there is business there are jobs and where there are jobs there are tax dollars being created.

With the way that the economy is going I think more and more people are looking at self employment as a viable alternative to traditional employment, which is a very good thing in many ways because it allows people to not only contribute to the economy themselves but most businesses need employees who in turn contribute. If the government is serious about stimulating the economy they should look at lowering taxes on small businesses and on investors. In the long run it'll actually create more tax dollars; it's one of the paradoxes in life that sometimes less is more and a small percentage of a large number is often greater than a large percentage of a smaller number.

Edited September 15, 2009 by dlkenny

[Shakeyhands]

That's my point though, Molly! Most folks DON'T have a decent understanding. What's more, they don't care!

The common man has his own wants and his own sense of right and wrong. This determines how he will vote.

Nobody ever got voted in by lecturing or scolding people about the way things SHOULD be!

You know, when you try to be a rock against the waves you just get worn down. Much better to be a surf board if you want to get anywhere!

and this is exactly why we are hearing all about the coalition from the CPC now, spectres upon spectres.

If the Liberals were smart they would hit back hard and fast, lord knows there have been enough missteps by the CPC to focus on.

In the mean time, we'll watch the CPC be propped up by the socialists and continue to flirt with the seperatists to hang on to power.

[jdobbin]

Latest Harris Decima poll:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...gqELBiQ1I2AkJ6w

The latest survey by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima indicates the Conservatives were maintaining a slight lead in popular support, with 34 per cent to the Liberals' 30 per cent.

The NDP were at 15 per cent, the Green party at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

Not too much change here except polls number continue to show the NDP lower than they have in a while.

[punked]

Latest Harris Decima poll:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...gqELBiQ1I2AkJ6w

Not too much change here except polls number continue to show the NDP lower than they have in a while.

So the NDP lose a point in the HD poll and it is "polls number continue to show the NDP lower than they have in a while." while the Liberals lose and point and it is "not much change"

Yah Dobbin keep showing us why no one should listen too you.

[waldo]

Latest Harris Decima poll:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...gqELBiQ1I2AkJ6w

The latest survey by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima indicates the Conservatives were maintaining a slight lead in popular support, with 34 per cent to the Liberals' 30 per cent.

The NDP were at 15 per cent, the Green party at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

Not too much change here except polls number continue to show the NDP lower than they have in a while.

yes... another complete repudiation of the 2 previous Canwest/Ipsos Reid polls and the absolute partisanship of the Tory bag-man, Darrell Bricker, of Ipsos Reid... and, of course, he made certain to get his latest creative numbers out the same day as the opening of Parliament.

like... why bother posting Ipsos Reid polls anymore... they certainly have no validity.

[jdobbin]

like... why bother posting Ipsos Reid polls anymore... they certainly have no validity.

They show a range. I have no idea what type of sample they use. I think anyone would be foolish to think that Ipsos number alone show a trend by themselves.

What has been shown over the summer is continuing close Liberal and Tory numbers often within a shade of the margin. At the beginning of summer, NDP numbers were ranging higher, often flirting with their election result. Harris has them down at 15 after their last poll and others pollsters showed them up a point or two through a portion of August.

It will be interesting to see some of the other polls this week to see if there is a trend.

Edited September 15, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

And the newest poll shows again Liberals losing ground.

Angus Reid weighs in(no pdf yet), and we see a significant change, particularly in Ontario. The national numbers (last poll two weeks ago in brackets):

Cons 36% (33%)

Libs 29% (32%)

NDP 17% (19%)

Bloc 10% (9%)

Greens 7% (7%)

7 point lead it is Dion all over again.

[LastViking]

Today's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 123-111 lead (as of Sept 1) over the Liberal Party.

[Wild Bill]

Today's riding projection chart update at TrendLines Research gives the Conservatives a 123-111 lead (as of Sept 1) over the Liberal Party.

I read some of their annotation. Geez, could you have picked any less biased source?

"If Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government. Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election Date. Jean should take up her responsibilities under our Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition."

Why don't you just quote "rubble.ca"?

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/09/16/ekos-poll.html

The EKOS poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 35.1 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 16.5 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 9.6 per cent and the Green Party with 9 per cent.

The Conservative lead increased slightly from last week’s poll, which saw the Tories with 34.2 per cent of support and the Liberals with 30.8 per cent. The NDP rose from 14.8 per cent, the Bloc slipped from 10 per cent, and the Green Party slipped from 10.1 per cent.

The Liberals certainly have taken a hit in regards to the election talk but now with no election in the offing for a few weeks, the focus now shifts to NDP and Bloc and their continued support of the government.

I think the electorate will have to chew over the new dynamic for a while. In all likelihood, some people probably in the poll were asked voter intention while thinking an election was imminent since the poll started September 9.

[Shakeyhands]

And the newest poll shows again Liberals losing ground.

Angus Reid weighs in(no pdf yet), and we see a significant change, particularly in Ontario. The national numbers (last poll two weeks ago in brackets):

Cons 36% (33%)

Libs 29% (32%)

NDP 17% (19%)

Bloc 10% (9%)

Greens 7% (7%)

7 point lead it is Dion all over again.

I must say this really surprises me. It really does show the impact of advertising.

[Bryan]

I must say this really surprises me. It really does show the impact of advertising.

To be totally serious, it doesn't surprise me at all. I've been saying it since before he was appointed leader, and I still honestly believe it; Ignatieff will be easier to beat than Dion was.

The only surprising part of the polling trends to me are:

a) that even CBC's polls are showing it.

that the CPC is even gaining ground in Quebec again, I honestly thought that ship has sailed.

c) that a lot of the CPC gains have been at the expense of the NDP. I know a lot of Manitobans who will vote Conservative or NDP only (never Liberal), but I didn't think that would happen in the rest of the country.

Edited September 17, 2009 by Bryan

[Keepitsimple]

I guess the Liberal "meet Mr. Ignatieff" ads have had their effect...Canadians are getting to know him.

Edited September 17, 2009 by Keepitsimple

[Smallc]

I would says these polls simply show that people don't want an election. In the event of an election, I would think that the numbers would change.

[LastViking]

I read some of their annotation. Geez, could you have picked any less biased source?

"If Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government. Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election Date. Jean should take up her responsibilities under our Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition."

Why don't you just quote "rubble.ca"?

We've heard your position on the Coalition many times. Yet, you offer no solutions to the deteriorated situation in Ottawa. Since the last Election committee work has been stymied and Question Period is but a forum for "gotcha" video bites. Nothing is getting done up there.

Having team players for awhile will be refreshing. There is no sloppy legislation that they institute that cannot be undone with time. Please tell us you also are unhappy with status quo.