Canadian Political Polls

Bryan · June 4, 2009

It is a tie. However, where are the Tories going to win more seats?

Brampton—Springdale, Vancouver South, New Westminster—Coquitlam, Cumberland—Colchester, Edmonton—Strathcona are all easily up for grabs.

Ignatieff is counting on Quebec to improve his party's standings. It's been a pretty foolish game to count on Quebec in recent years. Duceppe scramble those numbers whenever he wants to with one press conference.

The incumbent government always gets hammered in the polls during a recession, yet Ignatieff can't even beat Dion's honeymoon numbers, let alone Harper's current ones. The man is WEAKER than Dion. I honestly am hoping that Ignatieff really does think he has enough support to go to an election over EI this summer. His implosion is going to be glorious.

Vancouver King · June 4, 2009

It is a tie. However, where are the Tories going to win more seats?

Of more significance is the measured loss of Conservative support (2%) despite weeks of relentless anti-ignatieff TV ads. The campaign to define the Liberal leader appears to be backfiring and this conclusion will soon be confirmed by additional polls.

The combination of Flaherty casually mentioning the deficit will balloon 50% and his party's desperate attempt to change the nation's political focus to the opposition leader now appears an expensive failure.

Common sense has prevailed - the effects of this recession demand a moratorium on blatant partisan politics.

jdobbin · June 4, 2009

Brampton—Springdale, Vancouver South, New Westminster—Coquitlam, Cumberland—Colchester, Edmonton—Strathcona are all easily up for grabs.

That's five.

Ignatieff is counting on Quebec to improve his party's standings. It's been a pretty foolish game to count on Quebec in recent years. Duceppe scramble those numbers whenever he wants to with one press conference.

I don't underestimate the Bloc. I figure Harper doesn't either and could a lot of what he has there. Five seats to the BQ maybe?

Hardly puts Harper in a majority situation.

The incumbent government always gets hammered in the polls during a recession, yet Ignatieff can't even beat Dion's honeymoon numbers, let alone Harper's current ones. The man is WEAKER than Dion. I honestly am hoping that Ignatieff really does think he has enough support to go to an election over EI this summer. His implosion is going to be glorious.

The NDP are not going to vote for the a confidence motion. The Liberals intend to hammer the NDP on this.

The Liberal rise has been slow and steady. It is in provinces where they need to win more. Harper does not have the edge there and in fact trails significantly.

My guess is that there won't be an election but the Liberals are not going to let the NDP and BQ get the free ride they did from 2006 to 2008. The NDP are going to be the ones to decide on an election if the Liberals stake out a position on non-confidence.

Smallc · June 4, 2009

This poll is about a week old, isn't it? That's when I took the poll anyway.

waldo · June 6, 2009

clearly... the Harper Conservative attack ads are proving their worth!

latest Ipsos Reid poll:

Nationally: Liberals 36%, Conservatives 33%, NDP 12%, Greens 9%, BQ 9%

in Ontario: Liberals 41%, Conservatives 34%, NDP 14%

in Quebec: Liberals 37%, BQ 38%, Greens 10%, NDP 8%, Conservatives 8%

in Atlantic Canada: Liberals 39%, Conservatives 29%

in Quebec... even the Greens have pushed the Conservatives to the mat! :lol:

Vancouver King · June 6, 2009

And if that doesn't convince observers that Conservatives are on the wrong track maybe this latest sounding will:

Nik Nanos' latest poll:

Liberals - 37%

Conservatives - 32

NDP - 16

Bloc - 8

Green - 7

Highlight: Tory support plummets by 5% in Ontario.

If Ignatieff can engineer a parliamentary defeat the next general election result is now a forgone conclusion.

http://www.nanosresearch.com

Jerry J. Fortin · June 6, 2009

Ontario is turning red, bad news for Steve. Quebec is moving red, bad news for Gilles. It sounds like good news for Iggy everywhere. Another couple of weeks like this and the Liberal machine will start taking in money from those fearing the loss of power from Harper. If the current trend continues, Iggy will pop the question in the hOuse and we will have a summer election.

Vancouver King · June 6, 2009

Ontario is turning red, bad news for Steve. Quebec is moving red, bad news for Gilles. It sounds like good news for Iggy everywhere. Another couple of weeks like this and the Liberal machine will start taking in money from those fearing the loss of power from Harper. If the current trend continues, Iggy will pop the question in the hOuse and we will have a summer election.

These recent numbers are so encouraging it is now a given Liberals will go at the first available oppourtunity. Fall or Spring timing runs the risk that an economic rebound will enhance Tory support - the same electorate that has rejected negative TV ads is likely to reward the govt for pulling the nation out of recession.

capricorn · June 6, 2009

Ontario is turning red, bad news for Steve. Quebec is moving red, bad news for Gilles. It sounds like good news for Iggy everywhere.

Not when it comes to EI which comes across as his major plank for going to election.

Most Canadians are not keen to see a federal election fought over employment insurance, according to a new poll.
A full 60 per cent of respondents told Nanos Research the current political disagreement in Ottawa over EI reform is not important enough to trigger a federal election.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/646590

He has been hammering that stimulus money is not getting out the door fast enough. The problem for Ignatieff is that, as Vancouver King said, economic rebound may be more appealing to voters than the speed of infrastructure spending.

Ignatieff may have a tough time sealing the deal with voters. A summer election will not endear him to them.

Keepitsimple · June 6, 2009

I think we should let our Liberal posters enjoy the polls. They've been wallowing in righteous self pity for quite a while now. The weather's nice, the Libs are up in the polls, they've got a handsome new leader - life couldn't be better......but when the economy bounces back and it becomes clear that the Conservatives have led us through what Ignatieff says is "the worst recession since the 30's", I think you might find a slight adjustment in the polls. That's why the Libs are clamouring for an election - they are petrified of having to fight an election just when things are looking bright for the country - they'd rather campaign on doom and gloom.

jdobbin · June 7, 2009

it becomes clear that the Conservatives have led us through what Ignatieff says is "the worst recession since the 30's", I think you might find a slight adjustment in the polls. That's why the Libs are clamouring for an election - they are petrified of having to fight an election just when things are looking bright for the country - they'd rather campaign on doom and gloom.

It seems you a extremely optimistic about the economy and employment picking up along with the stock market to 2008 levels.

If that does happen along with a return to surpluses, I'm sure the Tories will be well positioned to win government again.

My feeling is that some Conservative supporters are petrified of having the fight an election unless these things are happening at the same time.

In any event, the Tories need not worry about an election. The Liberals are likely to vote no confidence and let the NDP or BQ take heat for supporting the Tories.

Keepitsimple · June 8, 2009

It seems you a extremely optimistic about the economy and employment picking up along with the stock market to 2008 levels.
If that does happen along with a return to surpluses, I'm sure the Tories will be well positioned to win government again.

My feeling is that some Conservative supporters are petrified of having the fight an election unless these things are happening at the same time.

In any event, the Tories need not worry about an election. The Liberals are likely to vote no confidence and let the NDP or BQ take heat for supporting the Tories.

Likely true....but I won't be looking for surpluses for awhile but I wouldn't be surprised if the TSX is back to around 15,000 in a year or so. We've had so much negativity that just about anything is optimism by comparison.....and optimism does wonders for the market.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 8, 2009

I think the spin doctors are way off course. In my view the recent spikes in the market are being taken way off the reservation. This recession will soon trend even further downward toward depression.

Vancouver King · June 8, 2009

This is a timely supplement to their just released party preference poll of June 5th. Nanos directly asked the question of Conservative negative ad campaign effectiveness and the answer appears clear: "Majority say Conservative ads ineffective."

Ineffective: 53%

Somewhat ineffective: 8%

Effective 20%

Somewhat effective: 15%

Unsure: 4%

From the who-would-have-thunk-it-department: Most convinced respondents were not in the Tory bastion of Western Canada but among voters in Ontario - by a 27% to 21% margin.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

jdobbin · June 9, 2009

Latest Strategic Counsel poll:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...08?hub=Politics

The Strategic Counsel poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, found virtually the same national levels of support for the four major parties as in a similar poll conducted almost a month ago.
The Liberals maintain a slight lead over the Conservatives (change from May 6-10 poll in brackets):

* Liberals: 34 per cent (-1)

* Conservatives: 30 per cent (no change)

* NDP: 16 per cent (no change)

* Greens: 11 per cent (no change)

* Bloc Quebecois: 9 per cent (no change)

And in Quebec:

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds a narrow but statistically insignificant lead over the Liberals, with 37 per cent support compared to 35 per cent for the Grits. Both parties dropped two points in support from the May poll.
The Conservatives are unchanged at nine per cent. The NDP lost a point, dropping to eight per cent, while the Greens gained three points, rising to 11 points in support.

"The Quebec numbers now are solid. There can now be no doubt that the Conservatives are in the position now where they would lose most, if not all of the 10 seats they hold in Quebec," he said.

It would appear the Tories need a different strategy than they have had in attacking Ignatieff.

As for the Liberals, they need a policy platform. They need not present the entire election campaign in advance but they do need to know where they stand consistently in the House and when talking to people in the media and their ridings.

As for the NDP: What can you say? They are struggling to make themselves heard. As I have mentioned earlier, they should take note about Nova Scotia. A centrist campaign and consistency has paid off for the party. You don't necessarily need a wild populist like Gary Doer to score big.

daniel · June 9, 2009

...
It would appear the Tories need a different strategy than they have had in attacking Ignatieff....

As for the NDP: What can you say? They are struggling to make themselves heard. ...

I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives air ads of endorsement for the NDP.

jdobbin · June 10, 2009

Latest Harris Decima poll:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...OscqlnaBxslRAcw

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the lead the Conservatives enjoyed in the 905 area code of southern Ontario during the last campaign has vanished and the Liberals enjoy a substantial advance in the region.
The Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP have focused the majority of their resources on a handful of truly competitive ridings across the country. The 905 horseshoe of suburban ridings around Toronto stretching down to Niagara Falls are among the most hotly contested.

And nationally:

On a national basis, voter intentions give the Liberals 35 per cent, the Conservatives 31, the NDP 15, the Bloc nine and the Greens eight.

No basis for an election yet.

It is hard to see where the Tory ad campaign was really effective since it has not really brought up their numbers from what they were prior to the campaign.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 10, 2009

Latest Harris Decima poll:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...OscqlnaBxslRAcw

And nationally:

No basis for an election yet.

It is hard to see where the Tory ad campaign was really effective since it has not really brought up their numbers from what they were prior to the campaign.

They are trying to head off the gains at the gate. Only problem is that Iggy is not Dion. The government has made a large strategic error in its planning and a large tactical error in the execution of the flawed plan.

Vancouver King · June 10, 2009

They are trying to head off the gains at the gate. Only problem is that Iggy is not Dion. The government has made a large strategic error in its planning and a large tactical error in the execution of the flawed plan.

Instead of defining the opposition leader the ads are defining their own party as crass opportunists. The bad taste left with voters over the failed negative ad campaign will magnify political fallout from the current Raitt-gate controversy.

Expect further deterioration in Conservative support.

Jerry J. Fortin · June 10, 2009

Instead of defining the opposition leader the ads are defining their own party as crass opportunists. The bad taste left with voters over the failed negative ad campaign will magnify political fallout from the current Raitt-gate controversy.
Expect further deterioration in Conservative support.

I agree.

Smallc · June 11, 2009

EKOS Poll

The poll, commissioned for the CBC and released Thursday, suggests 35 per cent of Canadians would vote Liberal in an election while 30.3 per cent would vote Conservative.

Edited June 11, 2009 by Smallc

Jerry J. Fortin · June 11, 2009

It seems the trend continues then. So be it, Harper goes on life support at 27%. If he falls that low before the end of the session the possibility of an election will increase. I am not sure Iggy wants to go there yet, there may yet be room for further gains. On the other hand the economy may turn and with that he could loose some momentum.

Dave_ON · June 11, 2009

EKOS Poll

The interesting thing to note is that the Conservatives went down 2 points nationally while the Liberals went up 1.5 and the Bloc .5. This seems to suggest most of the Conservative losses were in PQ to the benefit of the Libs and Bloc.

With a 20 point lead in PQ and 11 point lead in Ontario at this point the Conservatives have no chance of pulling off another minority government. Sadly it means we'll simply have a Liberal minority which IMV puts us in no better position. I'm tired of minority governments and I have no interest in adding to the longest streak in Canadian history of consecutive minority governments.

ToadBrother · June 11, 2009

No basis for an election yet.

Not yet, but I think there's more trouble for the Tories on the horizon. I know that here in BC, there's growing anger over EI inequities, from the provincial government right on down to folks in resource communities. Iggy may gain a lot more traction here than folks think if he promises EI reform.

For Iggy it's all about the timing. He knows that the fulcrum is tipping, but it's a question of not doing it too soon, and ending up with a minority (or worse, another Tory minority), or waiting too long and having something really awful happen like clear signs of economic recovery :-)

At any rate, I wouldn't say that Tory support is collapsing, but there's a definite downward trend here.

It is hard to see where the Tory ad campaign was really effective since it has not really brought up their numbers from what they were prior to the campaign.

The ad campaign was too over the top. It looked more like some sort Simpson's version of a political attack ad.