Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

From bourque.org:

Breaking: New polls show huge Tory gains:

Ipsos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8

Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8

Compas: 72% biz leaders see worse economy under Dion coalition

This thread always appreciates links on poll results - do you have any?

Edited December 4, 2008 by Vancouver King

[kimmy]

This thread always appreciates links on poll results - do you have any?

http://www.bourque.org/

They're on the front page of the Bourque news blog, which has been a busy source for the latest on this situation.

-k

[normanchateau]

This is only one poll (edit: ok, it's 2 polls now) but it has to be extremely worrying news for the members of the coalition (save for Duceppe, who has nothing at stake and is probably finding this to be tremendously entertaining regardless of how it ends.)

Obviously Dion is part of the problem.

Canadians are fair-minded. When Harper backed off from his partisan agenda mere days after it was presented, Dion should have backed off as well.

The only good news for the opposition in these polls is that they guarantee that Harper will once again lead CPC in the next election. What the next Liberal leader does not need is a new and less partisan CPC leader.

[Martin Chriton]

http://www.bourque.org/

They're on the front page of the Bourque news blog, which has been a busy source for the latest on this situation.

-k

Given those poll results, perhaps the most advantageous thing Harper could've would've been to allow his government to be defeated in the confidence vote.

After seeing the follow out in the past 2-3 days from this proposed coalition the most probable length the coalition would last is on the order of weeks. After that we'd see an election and the conservatives would get their majority.

[Vancouver King]

Nothing like going out on a limb....

PREDICTION: Stephen Dion will not be the Liberal leader to rise in late January and move a motion of non-confidence in Harper's govt. The newly emboldened coalition then defeats Harper only to have the GG again rule in the CPC's favor, plunging the country into winter, 2009 election.

This results in a Liberal minority govt. You read it here first.

[mikedavid00]

Nothing like going out on a limb....

PREDICTION: Stephen Dion will not be the Liberal leader to rise in late January and move a motion of non-confidence in Harper's govt. The newly emboldened coalition then defeats Harper only to have the GG again rule in the CPC's favor, plunging the country into winter, 2009 election.

This results in a Liberal minority govt. You read it here first.

I'll remember that prediction.

I was wrong though... I thought the GG was going to allow the coalition but her inexperience and kiss butt of whoever has power mentality got the better of her. Harper probably spent the 2 hours teaching her about the process she knew little about and the GG was probably happy to have him in the room and acting more of a 'fan' or 'home viewer' rather than a fellow elite. She was probably talkign aboout how it's like 'being famous' and sharing stories with him. Harper easily got the better of her.

Keep in mind she was only picked because she was a French, Immigrant, Minority - nothing less, nothing more. The job should never have went to her.

The left coalition had every right to form their coalition under the law and should have been able to do so.

BUT THANK GOD IT DIDN'T HAPPEN!

[Slim MacSquinty]

Its about stability, there were plenty of opinions around and probably plenty of them right, however the course of action is the most conservate since it allows cooler heads to prevail without denying to opportunity for the coalition to defeat the government if they can last that long.

[August1991]

I was wrong though... I thought the GG was going to allow the coalition but her inexperience and kiss butt of whoever has power mentality got the better of her.

It would have been a constitutional crisis if she had the request of a sitting PM to prorogue. In the current situation, it also would have been daft. The politicos, including media, obviously need some time out.

OTTAWA - Almost three-quarters of Canadians say they are "truly scared" for the future of the country and a solid majority say they would prefer another election to having the minority Conservative government replaced by a coalition led by Stephane Dion, a new Ipsos-Reid poll says.

The poll also indicates Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservatives would romp to a majority victory with a record 46 per cent public support if an election were held today.

...

Fully 60 per cent of those interviewed said they opposed replacing the government with Liberal-NDP coalition supported by the Bloc Quebecois, compared with 37 per cent who favoured the idea. Support for the coalition was highest in Quebec at 50 per cent, followed by 44 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

The poll indicates the prospect of the Dion-led coalition has prompted Canadians to rethink the value of an election so soon after the Oct. 14 poll. Fifty-six per cent said they would rather go to the polls than be governed by the coalition.

Link

FINALLY, THE SILENT MAJORITY SPEAKS.

I have been so tired of the chattering classes (starting with the CBC) giving so much credibility to this coalition project. Most Canadians (including a large number of Quebecers) do not want a government with NDP cabinet members and critically dependent on Bloc support for power. (Even the quote above leads with the spin about being "truly scared" about the country's future. People aren't afraid of the future. They just don't want this coalition cabinet lead by Dion. And what is it about the burgeoning use of quotes?)

If this crisis shows anything, it is that the media elite in Toronto is out of touch with the thoughts and beliefs of most ordinary English Canadians.

Harper would be wise to always go over the heads of the media and speak directly to Canadians. If he were smart, he would try the same strategy in Quebec. He might be surprised at the results.

Edited December 5, 2008 by August1991

[blueblood]

It would have been a constitutional crisis if she had the request of a sitting PM to prorogue. In the current situation, it also would have been daft. The politicos, including media, obviously need some time out.

Link

FINALLY, THE SILENT MAJORITY SPEAKS.

I have been so tired of the chattering classes (starting with the CBC) giving so much credibility to this coalition project. Most Canadians (including a large number of Quebecers) do not want a government with NDP cabinet members and critically dependent on Bloc support for power. (Even the quote above leads with the spin about being "truly scared" about the country's future. People aren't afraid of the future. They just don't want this coalition cabinet lead by Dion. And what is it about the burgeoning use of quotes?)

If this crisis shows anything, it is that the media elite in Toronto is out of touch with the thoughts and beliefs of most ordinary English Canadians.

Harper would be wise to always go over the heads of the media and speak directly to Canadians. If he were smart, he would try the same strategy in Quebec. He might be surprised at the results.

As a Centre right Quebecer, what do you want Harper to say? What do you want Harper to do?

Answer that question in a precise manner, and a lot of westerners will get to hear Quebec's side of things. This is the problem, it's not english canada vs. quebec. It's western canada vs. eastern canada vs. quebec. English Canada is split in two. Eastern Canada I think understands. For the sake of national unity I think that Quebecers and westerners should explain to each other their positions on matters like this. you know the wests? position. What's Quebec's?

Personally I'd go on TVA and shell Duceppe into the Stone Age.

Edited December 5, 2008 by blueblood

[punked]

I love when people quote Nixon he was great right?

[Slim MacSquinty]

Imagine you're six years old and your one of 12 siblings (your mother took fertility drugs and adopted a couple of her cousins kids), she is supposed to love you all the same. When she comes home from shopping she always has a bag of jelly beans and gives all the kids 10 beans.

Most of the kids hold out their hands take the beans and put them in their pockets and eat them one at a time.

A few of the kids count them to make sure they got their fair share, some kids only want red beans, some only green.

One says he's a little small so he should get more so he can grow big. Other kids accuse their siblings of stealing their beans and before long everyone is crying and shouting and accusing your mother of playing favorites.

Essentially, that is the Canadian system.

[August1991]

I love when people quote Nixon he was great right?

WTF?

The fact that Nixon abused the trust of many ordinary Americans is about as relevant to this discussion as noting that Clinton lied when he said that he had no sexual relations with "that woman". So what?

----

Canada has many ordinary people who get up every day and go to work. They make this place called Canada. The government of Canada is an entirely different thing.

Imagine you're six years old and your one of 12 siblings...

One says he's a little small so he should get more so he can grow big.

Canada is not 12 kids. It is 30 million people. Slim, Canada is not the governments in Canada. Edited December 5, 2008 by August1991

[capricorn]

Conservatives surge ahead in CBC-EKOS poll:

CPC 44%

Liberals 24%

NDP 14.5%

BQ 9%

Green 8%

These numbers can be interpreted in different ways. At first glance, it certainly looks like a rejection of the coalition. Canadians are not particularly fond of majority governments. Could it be that Canadians believe that the coalition would have TOO MUCH power, i.e. like a majority government? Or is it that Canadians trust the Conservatives more to guide the country through tough economic times? Hard to say which it is.

There's no chance now that the Liberals will vote non-confidence in the January budget.

If the coalition is allowed to proceed until then and Dion remains its leader, of course they'll vote down the government at the first opportunity. Their one and only goal is to defeat Harper and form the government. Unless enough Liberals band together to smash the coalition, it's full steam ahead.

[punked]

Imagine you're six years old and your one of 12 siblings (your mother took fertility drugs and adopted a couple of her cousins kids), she is supposed to love you all the same. When she comes home from shopping she always has a bag of jelly beans and gives all the kids 10 beans.

Most of the kids hold out their hands take the beans and put them in their pockets and eat them one at a time.

A few of the kids count them to make sure they got their fair share, some kids only want red beans, some only green.

One says he's a little small so he should get more so he can grow big. Other kids accuse their siblings of stealing their beans and before long everyone is crying and shouting and accusing your mother of playing favorites.

Essentially, that is the Canadian system.

No Essentially that is a juvenile way of thinking of our system not only that but it is the wrong way of thinking of it. What would be better?

[blueblood]

Imagine you're six years old and your one of 12 siblings (your mother took fertility drugs and adopted a couple of her cousins kids), she is supposed to love you all the same. When she comes home from shopping she always has a bag of jelly beans and gives all the kids 10 beans.

Most of the kids hold out their hands take the beans and put them in their pockets and eat them one at a time.

A few of the kids count them to make sure they got their fair share, some kids only want red beans, some only green.

One says he's a little small so he should get more so he can grow big. Other kids accuse their siblings of stealing their beans and before long everyone is crying and shouting and accusing your mother of playing favorites.

Essentially, that is the Canadian system.

It's also Brangelina's household. Substitute Jelly Beans for Toys.

[punked]

WTF?

The fact that Nixon abused the trust of many ordinary Americans is about as relevant to this discussion as noting that Clinton lied when he said that he had no sexual relations with "that woman". So what?

----

Canada has many ordinary people who get up every day and go to work. They make this place called Canada. The government of Canada is an entirely different thing.

Canada is not 12 kids. It is 30 million people. Slim, Canada is not the governments in Canada.

The silent majority is Nixon's key slogan in fact he made it famous of the conservative cause.

[reasonoverpassion]

CPC supporters just can beleive or understand that not every Canadian is in love with Steven Harper. The cult of personality built around Harper is just plain scary. He seems to think it is his mission to dislodge the Liberals as the "natural governing party" This is to be done by borrow tactics from Republicans like Karl Rove and Lee Atwater. Negative campaigning, Harper as the "compasionate Conservative", targeting groups in society that are potential supporters while demonizing your "enemies" etc...

Conspriacy theories like the CBC or the elites are "brainwashing" everyone to vote Liberal border on the sur-real.

A personal favorite is that no one supports this coalition and we all want a CPC government because they have more seats than other party. A minority goverment is defined as a "mandate to govern".

Now we have polls which "prove Canadian want a majority. Polls don't count for anything, and as we all are aware, thing can change dramatically in politics in a short period of time

[capricorn]

No Essentially that is a juvenile way of thinking of our system not only that but it is the wrong way of thinking of it.

Slim presents a good analogy of our system. Someone as juvenile as yourself should understand it.

What would be better?

You're the one to criticize. Let's see you come up with something better.

[punked]

I like our system I am not being critical of it so why would I can to come up with something better?

[capricorn]

I like our system I am not being critical of it so why would I can to come up with something better?

The way you worded your post, it looked to me as if you asking for a better, less juvenile analogy for our system than what Slim offered. BTW punked, I'm glad to see you like our system, as I do.

[Vancouver King]

These numbers can be interpreted in different ways. At first glance, it certainly looks like a rejection of the coalition. Canadians are not particularly fond of majority governments. Could it be that Canadians believe that the coalition would have TOO MUCH power, i.e. like a majority government? Or is it that Canadians trust the Conservatives more to guide the country through tough economic times? Hard to say which it is.

It's also a confirmation of Dion's weak leadership. Harper turned the initial 3-day focus off the brinkmanship of the original economic update, went on the offensive by attacking the coalition's 'scary' Bloc involvement and sold Canadians on the idea the proposed change in govt was equal to a coup de tat.

Dion was unable to counter this PR batlle, unable to even highlight some of the misinformation. His cause has now lost the initiative, his nemesis, furiously backpeddaling only a couple of days ago, is again in control of events.

[Slim MacSquinty]

Go back and read the threads from the last few days and I think you couldn't help but agree with my analogy.

Reviewing the events of the last few months it seems more clear than ever to me that we are seeing the results of the clash of a couple of egos. I remember watching Trudeau humiliate Deifenbaker, and Clarke, both men (particularly Deif) were clearly angry, but knowing it was politics let things go. I don't think Dion can let it go, he has been humiliated and like a schoolboy whos been "pantsed" is furious and more than a little powerless to strike back. Enter Jack Layton who presents himself with all his buddies from the AV club who vow to hold Harper down so Dion poke him in the eye, a prospect he apparently cannot resist. So here we are.

The problem is that it appears that Harper might have "pantsed" not only Dion and the AV club, but the Glee club, the yearbook club and all of the badminton team.

So what do we do now, we got a six week reprieve from the sillyness. It appear the people of Canada are more than a little anoyed and apparently are mostly sympathetic to Harpers point of view, the coalition if not very careful could be made to pay at the polls. That however is no reason to go to an election, as the winds over this manure pile could well change direction.

I should think all parties would be well served to tread carefully during these times. The trio of usurpers seem willing to give no quarter to Harper, voters may think differently of Harper and still seem willing to let him run the economy, looks like a conudrum, Dion (not the Liberal party), Layton and Duceppe may have nothing to lose and be willing to bring down the government. Harper will need every one of his tactical skills, which up until recently I thought werre considerable, to deliver a budget and a plan and at least appear to be consiliatory in an attempt to win back confidence. On the other hand he could hand it off to someone else, allow a blue ribbon panel to do the consultative process and see what happens, he could be Mr. Teflon when it all blows over.

[CanadianBacon]

The GG made the best decision at this point.

Although proroguing the parliament seems like Harper is buying time (Which it is...)

You don't want to call hand over power to a last second coalition or call an election on the turn of a dime.

Now there is a cooling period with a definite time frame (I would have a problem with a prorogue with no end in sight) where Harper either regains confidence or loses it when he comes back.

If Harper loses the vote in January and the coalition is still in one piece then u will have indirectly tested the stability of the coalition and could let them form government. If Harper loses the vote and the coalition doesn't exist then we have an election.

As to who is in the coalition etc, the GG cannot deny a coalition based on its members...that is a political decision which has no place here.

So all this talk about denying the coalition because it includes the Bloc is absurd. The system has to work consistently regardless of the parties involved.

This all fits in our constitutional custom and tradition without breaking anything.

[blueblood]

It's also a confirmation of Dion's weak leadership. Harper turned the initial 3-day focus off the brinkmanship of the original economic update, went on the offensive by attacking the coalition's 'scary' Bloc involvement and sold Canadians on the idea the proposed change in govt was equal to a coup de tat.

Dion was unable to counter this PR batlle, unable to even highlight some of the misinformation. His cause has now lost the initiative, his nemesis, furiously backpeddaling only a couple of days ago, is again in control of events.

I done knowed it the whole time!!! Phase 2 is now underway. All we need is an election. If I were the left, I'd be giving confidence until my funds and leader and policy are in place. Layton is probably toast as NDP leader. Pat Martin is licking his chops, I did not see this normally rambunctious MP make any public statements...

Watch the tory "air force" or for the left "luftwaffe" take to the airwaves and unleash an air war of epic proportions. Dobbin is right, Harper will get his election come hell or high water. The coalition was good as a threat, but Harper turned the tables again!!!

[Slim MacSquinty]

Watch the tory "air force" or for the left "luftwaffe" take to the airwaves and unleash an air war of epic proportions. Dobbin is right, Harper will get his election come hell or high water. The coalition was good as a threat, but Harper turned the tables again!!!

Easy there big fella, thought the battle has been won the war continues. If Harper can't make it look like he's attempting to cooperate and pull this government back together the egg may very well be on his face.