The GOP Civil War

[Shugo]

Lets be real for a second. Obama was always going to win the Presidency, that's a fact. There was no way McCain could have pulled off a victory after eight years of Bush, his train wreck Campaign and the pick of Sarah Palin as his VP Nom. Some people's focus has now shifted onto how bad McCain will lose and the consequences that could carry with it. Former Bush speech Writer David Frum sums it up best. "A McCain loss is threatening to take down the entire GOP with him"

David Frum isn't alone in his worries. He has been joined by many other prominent conservatives, such as former Reagan speech writer and conservative columnist Peggy Noonan and Conservative Commentator David Brooks. Their criticisms are similar. John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin was a bad idea. Peegy Noonan was caught in an open mic incident on MSNBC with Mike Murphey calling the Sarah Palin pick "Political Bullshit", "Cynical" and "Gimmicky", while David Brooks called Sarah Palin "A Cancer to the Republican Party" in one of his articles. This is a sentiment shared among many intellectual conservatives who have expressed their displeasure with Sarah Palin. Some Republicans, Like Senator Chuck Hagel from Nebraska and four star General Colin Powell, former Reagen security adviser and former Secretary of state under George W. Bush, have openly referenced Palin as a reason why they have jumped ship and joined the Obama team.

The beginnings of the Party split seems to be taking place within the McCain campaign itself. Reports of Infighting among Senior McCain aides and Sarah Palin's associates have spilled into the public domain. McCain aides are charging Palin has gone Rogue and is going off message, such as bringing up the RNC's $150,000 clothing shopping spree controversy that the McCain campaign hoped would be buried soon. She has openly disagreed with many decisions made by the McCain campaign, such as pulling their forces out of the former battle ground state Michigan (now solid for Obama), not being allowed to bring up Barack Obama's former Pastor Jeremiah Wright ( A topic McCain declared off limits) and had criticized the use of robocalls, the exact tactic McCain is using. A McCain aide told CNN that Palin was a "Diva" and that “She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party.” Another McCain aide has expressed the same concerns that Palin was not in it to win it, but instead preparing herself to become a party leader and perhaps run for the presidency in 2012. He also criticized her lack of understanding of any of the issues. In response, Palin's staff has accused the McCain campaign of bumbling her entrance onto the national stage and ruining her image and handling her poorly, not letting her be herself, which is why she has gone off message so many times.

The conflict has threatened to take the entire Republican Party into a civil war. Some party elders and insiders have suggested the best was to go from here on out was to focus on saving as many Senate and House seats as they can. While Obama is raking in record amounts of cash, he has been able to tap into the House races as well to help his fellow Democrats. Republicans are worried that in just a week from now, Obama will win the Presidency, Democrats will increase their majority under Nancy Pelosi in the Congress and Harry Reid's senate democrats will reach a filibuster proof majority in the senate, giving Democrats complete control over the government. Jimmy Carter managed to pull off a similar win back in the 70's. McCain has warned that having all three branches of government controlled by Democrats means there are no checks and balances and has called Senator Obama, Senate leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a "Dangerous Threesome", and they have come to be known as the 'Democratic Trifecta'.

If such a loss does occur, the GOP will be pushed out of the political spectrum after dominating it for the past eight years, leading many to bitterness and as expected, the fingers have come out and the blame game has begun. With Aides in the McCain campaign already at each others throats with still a week away before the election, it wont be long until the whole party is wrapped up in what might decide the future of the party. As already noted, many commentators have already expressed their distaste for Sarah Palin and the course the GOP is taking. They have run up against the Republican faithfuls though who have turned almost venomous on their fellow conservatives colleagues.

Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".

He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?" Rush Limbaugh, the doyen of right wing talk radio hosts, denounced Noonan, Brooks and Frum. Neconservative writer Charles Krauthammer condemned "the rush of wet-fingered conservatives leaping to Barack Obama", while fellow columnist Tony Blankley said that instead of collaborating in heralding Mr Obama's arrival they should be fighting "in a struggle to the political death for the soul of the country".

So the line has been drawn, and on the one side of it you have the 'Egg heads'. They are the intellectuals, who voice criticism of their own party and are seeking a new direction upon seeing the dwindling appeal they have to a new world and have been turned off by Sarah Palin. On the other side you have the 'Ditto Heads', who consist of Party faithfuls, social conservatives and the religious right, the core of the Republican party who have been enticed into the race by Palin.

The Democratic movement which is changing the political and electoral map and has beenc ompared to that of Ronald Reagan, appears to have encouraged soul searching in the GOP to find a new path. It will be a long road for them. The Republican party is about to go through a dark, uncertain period that will determine their direction. The Old way or a New way. Perhaps an Obama victory will not be that bad for the GOP after all.

[bush_cheney2004]

Sources please...how much was lifted from Tim Shipman?

[Shugo]

Sources please...how much was lifted from Tim Shipman?

Who?

[Shugo]

Another aides just called Sarah Palin a 'Whack Job'

[JerrySeinfeld]

Actually, the real wonder is that McCain is still in this race.

That says more about Obama than it does McCain.

With Bush's national approval rating of <30% and an electorate looking for new blood, it's astoundign that the mainstream press is having to excerpt as much effort as they are to drag Obama across the finish line.

This guy is the Messiah? Then why are his polliing numbers barely hovering at 50%?

Your critique is off the mark. In 2004 Ohio was polling for a 6-point Ohio victory for John Kerry as late as October 31. Bush won Ohio.

Hussein Osama still has to get out the "black vote" and the "youth vote" - difficult tasks if decades of history is any indicator. These groups always show up a plenty during telephone polling, but getting them to show up to the polling station is always another matter - or at least has been invariably.

Not saying McCain can pull it off, but to write such a scathing obit at this juncture is obviously unobjective.

Edited October 28, 2008 by JerrySeinfeld

[BC_chick]

This guy is the Messiah?

Why do Obama detractors like to use this strawman argument?

[Mr.Canada]

Why do Obama detractors like to use this strawman argument?

He does make a valid point though. If Obama is so popular, as I believe him to be, where are the Kennedy-esque numbers?

[BC_chick]

He does make a valid point though. If Obama is so popular, as I believe him to be, where are the Kennedy-esque numbers?

His numbers are relatively low because he's human, not a messiah, nor prophet, nor demi-God... nothing remotely divine about the guy. Just your everday average, normal charismatic politician type.

So again... the only people going on that he's not a messiah are his adversaries... IOW, they bring up something against him just to shoot it down when the Obama supporters never implied anything about him being a messiah.

Get it now.... 'strawman argument'?

Edited October 28, 2008 by BC_chick

[M.Dancer]

He does make a valid point though. If Obama is so popular, as I believe him to be, where are the Kennedy-esque numbers?

Kennedy had to resort to dirty tricks to get elected. Texas and Illinois come to mind. Daley gave Illinois to Kennedy, Johnson stole Texas.

Fact is there are no Kennedy-esque numbers, it was one of the tightest races in US history.

[bush_cheney2004]

...Fact is there are no Kennedy-esque numbers, it was one of the tightest races in US history.

Awww shucks...you ruined the myth!

[August1991]

Lets be real for a second. Obama was always going to win the Presidency, that's a fact. There was no way McCain could have pulled off a victory after eight years of Bush, his train wreck Campaign and the pick of Sarah Palin as his VP Nom. Some people's focus has now shifted onto how bad McCain will lose and the consequences that could carry with it. Former Bush speech Writer David Frum sums it up best. "A McCain loss is threatening to take down the entire GOP with him"

...

On the contrary, it is a hard slog for a liberal Democrat from Illinois to win the White House, regardless of what is happening in the real world. In teh case of Obama, he's been very lucky. The US is involved in two foreign wars, the housing market has collapsed, and during the final legs of teh campaign, there was a financial panic and the stock market collapsed. Next to a full-fledged recession, it is hard to imagine how any incumbent party could keep the White House. McCain almost did but his campaign was less than perfect.

To his credit, Obama has tacked well to the centre since the summer. He appears to be a decent man and I'm sure the Republic will survive his administration.

-----

Incidentally, it is usually left wing parties that get involved in ideological civil wars. Splinter groups on the left are legion. (Canada's Conservative Party didn't split on ideology; it split on regionalism.)

His numbers are relatively low because he's human, not a messiah, nor prophet, nor demi-God... nothing remotely divine about the guy. Just your everday average, normal charismatic politician type.

BC Chick, you are being ingenuous in the extreme. Obama's slogan is "We are the change that we have been waiting for".

Christ, Obama almost presents himself as the Second Coming, or at least some of his supporters seem to do that.

Anyway, my quibble with Obama is not his messianic message but his "Oneness" argument.

"People of the world, look at Berlin, where a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one," Obama said in a speech at Berlin's Victory Column in the Tiergarten park.

CNN

The Berlin Wall did not fall because the world stood as one.

It is the sheer presumption of Obama and his supporters that they speak for anyone other than themselves. Some 50 million Americans will not vote for Obama next Tuesday.

Bush at least had the decency to note that not all Americans supported him. In Canada, Stephen Harper has a similar humility. When Obama talks about uniting everybody together in "one world", I get the shivers. God help us all if he applies his childhood problems to the world at large.

He does make a valid point though. If Obama is so popular, as I believe him to be, where are the Kennedy-esque numbers?

WTF? I'm with Morris above on this. Kennedy was elected in 1960 by the slimmest of margins. To this day, Kennedy was the only Roman Catholic ever to sit in the Oval Office.

I generally trust polls and I now accept that Obama will win this election. But it may well be closer than most polls predict.

Edited October 28, 2008 by August1991

[Oleg Bach]

The whole idea of the young boyish black Alexander the Great Messhia thing is in the minds of most - They see Obama as a combination of the Christ and avenging angel of death...This is the oddest thing. Will he lift up what is left of the dishonoured giant or will he simply cut the head off? What I see coming is a disolving of the empire and the wet ashes flowing into globalist ulitiarian hell - Obama is no Messiah - I would rather have Palin the puppet and a good committee of wise men and woman running America - BUT - because money elects - the best are not let though...serious and dangerous problem we have - no leaders ----------------the real president is probably pumping gas and needs a root canal...this is capitalism peaking...this is communism reinvented - its a mess - no one gives a damn about the people - just themselves - Maybe our elite are all on cocaine and prozac..mabye they are so medicated they don't see hell coming?

[Shugo]

Gotta tell you, I am surprised to have so many Pro Republican responses on a Canadian site. I am confused as to why all of you are talking about Obama being the 'Messiah' though. It doesn't have much to do with the topic of the thread and it doesn't much contribute to the positive political realm.

[bush_cheney2004]

Gotta tell you, I am surprised to have so many Pro Republican responses on a Canadian site. I am confused as to why all of you are talking about Obama being the 'Messiah' though. It doesn't have much to do with the topic of the thread and it doesn't much contribute to the positive political realm.

Sure it does....according to the "topic".....the Messiah's election will lead to the Republicans wandering in the desert for 40 years...same thing has happened to the Grits in Canada. LOL!

[Liam]

On the contrary, it is a hard slog for a liberal Democrat from Illinois to win the White House, regardless of what is happening in the real world. In teh case of Obama, he's been very lucky. The US is involved in two foreign wars, the housing market has collapsed, and during the final legs of teh campaign, there was a financial panic and the stock market collapsed. Next to a full-fledged recession, it is hard to imagine how any incumbent party could keep the White House.

You could chalk it up as luck, but you might also be wrong. As it stands, McCain's own party initiated those two wars and avidly pursued policies of deregulation which didn't necessarily create, but certainly helped to contribute, to the financial mess.

McCain almost did but his campaign was less than perfect.

McCain's campaign has been a joke. From the moment he tossed his experience edge for a VP who is little more than a tent-in-the-pants of the likes of Bill Kristol, he showed himself to be nothing more than a calculating pol and a tactician, not a strategist.

BC Chick, you are being ingenuous in the extreme. Obama's slogan is "We are the change that we have been waiting for".

Christ, Obama almost presents himself as the Second Coming, or at least some of his supporters seem to do that.

You are misreading what Obama is saying. He's not saying "We" like some monach who substitutes it for "I", he is saying "we, the people, are the ones who have to stop waiting and take ownership of the change we want."

Bush at least had the decency to note that not all Americans supported him.

Bush didn't ever give a damn about anyone who wasn't going to vote for him. He ran a 50%+1 strategy in his elections and in the White House. He was not the humble man you portray him to be. He was (and is) as polarizing and divisive a figure in US politics as Nixon.

[bush_cheney2004]

You could chalk it up as luck, but you might also be wrong. As it stands, McCain's own party initiated those two wars and avidly pursued policies of deregulation which didn't necessarily create, but certainly helped to contribute, to the financial mess.

Right...with bipartisan support from the US Congress.

McCain's campaign has been a joke. From the moment he tossed his experience edge for a VP who is little more than a tent-in-the-pants of the likes of Bill Kristol, he showed himself to be nothing more than a calculating pol and a tactician, not a strategist.

McCain was given up for dead in July 2007....not bad considering what happened to the other Messiah....Hillary Clinton.

You are misreading what Obama is saying. He's not saying "We" like some monach who substitutes it for "I", he is saying "we, the people, are the ones who have to stop waiting and take ownership of the change we want."

"We" never lost ownership.....Obama would still serve at our (elected) pleasure.

Bush didn't ever give a damn about anyone who wasn't going to vote for him. He ran a 50%+1 strategy in his elections and in the White House. He was not the humble man you portray him to be. He was (and is) as polarizing and divisive a figure in US politics as Nixon.

....and a two term president....not too shabby for a "moron".

[jdobbin]

I generally trust polls and I now accept that Obama will win this election. But it may well be closer than most polls predict.

No doubt. However, the Republicans in general in the House and Senate seem to be struggling. It isn't a good year to be Republican.

It doesn't help when Alaska's Senator slog on despite being convicted. Will Palin vote for him?

Edited October 29, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Bush didn't ever give a damn about anyone who wasn't going to vote for him. He ran a 50%+1 strategy in his elections and in the White House. He was not the humble man you portray him to be. He was (and is) as polarizing and divisive a figure in US politics as Nixon.

Obama is also a polarizing figure and that's what the people who have drunk Obama's koolaid don't seem to realize.

It is this prersumption that Obama speaks for "We the people". Perhaps this explains why some Canadians are less than enthusiastic about an Obama presidency. I was also less than impressed with his cavalier willingness to open up the free trade agreement as if itw ere something that he could take or leave.

You could chalk it up as luck, but you might also be wrong. As it stands, McCain's own party initiated those two wars and avidly pursued policies of deregulation which didn't necessarily create, but certainly helped to contribute, to the financial mess.

Bush most certainly did not start the war in Afghanistan.

It's like blaming Harry Truman for starting the Cold War.

No doubt. However, the Republicans in general in the House and Senate seem to be struggling.

Agreed. It's curious that many voters are blaming the Republicans for this whole financial debacle.

The Democrats are poised to take the White House and and have hefty majorities in both houses of Congress.

Edited October 29, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

Agreed. It's curious that many voters are blaming the Republicans for this whole financial debacle.

Probably because so many seem to think Republicans were the leading advocates of deregulation and now watch as money is poured into Wall Street even as they zealously protect their bonuses. It is unseemly to those who might be struggling.

That, and people like Stevens and Craig as Senate Republicans have turned people against the party. Even generally decent representatives are caught up in the sweep.

The Democrats are poised to take the White House and and have hefty majorities in both houses of Congress.

The take no prisoners partisan at all cost style sometimes comes home to roost in a sweep that runs both ways. Republicans used it against Democrats and now it is going the other way.

Here is what David Frum said in the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...02302081_2.html

There are many ways to lose a presidential election. John McCain is losing in a way that threatens to take the entire Republican Party down with him.

I'll let you read the rest of it.

One other interesting quote though:

McCain's awful campaign is having awful consequences down the ballot. I spoke a little while ago to a senior Republican House member. "There is not a safe Republican seat in the country," he warned. "I don't mean that we're going to lose all of them. But we could lose any of them."

Edited October 29, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

The take no prisoners partisan at all cost style sometimes comes home to roost in a sweep that runs both ways. Republicans used it against Democrats and now it is going the other way.

In a viable democracy, there must be at least two bitterly partisan parties and both must get their time on the stage.

A candidate like Obama should be losing this campaign but he has been extraordinarily lucky.

As to Frum, he has been going down in my opinion ever since he took credit for part of the "axis of evil" phrase. A good speechwriter should be heard but not seen.

As Thatcher would say, Frum has gone wet.

[jdobbin]

In a viable democracy, there must be at least two bitterly partisan parties and both must get their time on the stage.

Looks like that is happening.

A candidate like Obama should be losing this campaign but he has been extraordinarily lucky.

He is running against a man who had a hard time convincing his own party to support him passionately.

It seems that some Republicans who might have had a better run at the leadership sat on their aspirations this time around.

As to Frum, he has been going down in my opinion ever since he took credit for part of the "axis of evil" phrase. A good speechwriter should be heard but not seen.

As Thatcher would say, Frum has gone wet.

Some of the best speechwriters in U.S. history have turned to journalism and writing books. Their insights have been valuable in terms of understanding of what is happening politically in a way that outside observers never can get.

[BC_chick]

BC Chick, you are being ingenuous in the extreme. Obama's slogan is "We are the change that we have been waiting for".

Christ, Obama almost presents himself as the Second Coming, or at least some of his supporters seem to do that.

'We are the change we've been waiting for' shows a messianic complex? Are you serious? Wouldn't a messiah say *I* am the change we (the nation/the world, whatever) have been waiting for?

And what could Obama gain by coming across as messianic amongst a sea of liberal supporters? How about his adversaries, do they have anything to gain by depicting him as a self-perceived messiah? Do they gain anything when there is a sea of religious Republicans who believe that the anti-Christ is going to initially be received as a messiah-figure during the End Times (which many of them believe is now)?

IOW, not only have you not presented any evidence, you have no motive that he would come across as such. Republicans, OTOH, have plenty of motive to paint Obama as a false Second Coming.

So who gains and who loses by this strawman argument?

[Liam]

I can't remember if I posted this link earlier (and am too lazy to check), but this is a pretty astute observation by David Brooks in the NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10brooks.html

I really think the GOP needs to decide if it's going to be a party of the future by giving greater power to the idea people, or be a party of the past by kowtowing to the ideologues. I wish it would choose the former.

[August1991]

'We are the change we've been waiting for' shows a messianic complex? Are you serious? Wouldn't a messiah say *I* am the change we (the nation/the world, whatever) have been waiting for?

And what could Obama gain by coming across as messianic amongst a sea of liberal supporters? How about his adversaries, do they have anything to gain by depicting him as a self-perceived messiah? Do they gain anything when there is a sea of religious Republicans who believe that the anti-Christ is going to initially be received as a messiah-figure during the End Times (which many of them believe is now)?

IOW, not only have you not presented any evidence, you have no motive that he would come across as such. Republicans, OTOH, have plenty of motive to paint Obama as a false Second Coming.

So who gains and who loses by this strawman argument?

BC Chick, I think you entirely miss the point. You seem to view US politics as if it were the religious versus the secular. That's hardly the case since US politics are far more complicated than a simple black/white division.

I have merely observed the idolatry bestowed on Obama by many of his supporters. If you can't see the Christian subtext to "We are the change we have been waiting for", what kind of deconstructionist leftist are you? I thought all lefties had advanced degrees in liebral arts.

I have compared Obama to Bob Rae and I think the comparison is apt. When Obama is forced to face reality and say no to his followers, he is bound to inspire their wrath.

From NYT link above:

In 1976, in a close election, Gerald Ford won the entire West Coast along with northeastern states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Vermont and Maine. In 1984, Reagan won every state but Minnesota.

But over the past few decades, the Republican Party has driven away people who live in cities, in highly educated regions and on the coasts. This expulsion has had many causes. But the big one is this: Republican political tacticians decided to mobilize their coalition with a form of social class warfare.

This piece is ridiculous but this particular quote is plain nonsense.

Since Kennedy, the Republicans have dominated the White House unless the Democrats chose a good ol' boy southerner. Even then, only centrist/pragmatic Clinton can be declared a real success. Johnson and Carter were hounded out of office.

This basic fact of American politics has not changed. Obama's election is not the result of any major shift in the American voting public. Rather, teh US is involved in two foreign wars, housing prices and the stock market have collapsed, and the US is facing a recession. This election was for the Democrats to lose and it happens, by sheer chance, that the Democrats have chosen one of the most liberal candidates in decades.

Obama's arrival in the White House is just as much an accident as Bob Rae's election as Ontario premier.

[JerrySeinfeld]

The Berlin Wall did not fall because the world stood as one.

Exactly. Excellent post August.

This is a microcosm of Obama's dreamer mentality of inaccuracies and feel good speeches.

In fact, the Berlin fell because of the hardline don't back down don't listen to your detractors - in other words, BUSH style determination - of one man: Ronald Reagan.

It's borderline stupidity for this guy to stand up in front of 100's of thousands of germans and claim that the appeasment white flag policies that he stands for will work better than the actuall hardline stance that toppled the wall in the real world.

What a self absorbed twit. If you thought Bush's era was comedy, just wait for the next 4 years of a President who's hot to chase failed and dated euro policies.

Edited October 30, 2008 by JerrySeinfeld