2004 Election Predictions

[Slavik44]

well here is my final prediction

Conservatives: 115

Liberals: 109

NDP: 24

Bloc: 59

Ind: 1

[August1991]

Is there money riding on this?

In all likelihood, there will be another election in a year or so. Greg, for the next election, figure out a way to set up numbers racket, do secure money on line and then donate proceeds to a charity we all agree on.

[caesar]

If the Conservatives win a minority and take office; there will be an election called in 2 months. If the Liberals get power; the election call will be in about 8 months.

There are going to be lots of recounts and problem with this election; particularly in BC where ethnic groups are violating election rules. At the present; it is Conservative members at advanced polling booths but I do admit the Liberals have had some hanky panky going on in their ethnic ridings pre election.

I just might have to give the NDP my vote; They may spend our money like it is water but so far there have been no dishonest electioneering from that party that I have heard of. The NDP could win the next election if the two leading parties keep shooting themselves in the foot with those unregistered gun and shooting off their mouths with ideas they must quickly retract; so as to hide their real agendas.

[idealisttotheend]

donate proceeds to a charity we all agree on.

LOL. What exactly are the chances of getting everyone on this board to agree on the colour of grass never mind a charity, August?!? It would take twenty different threads and much nattering of teeth if it could be done at all I think.

[takeanumber]

I think we'd have to consult Edmonton first.

The Premier's subcommittee for the distribution of predictive pools of the People's Republic of Alberta.

Write to them. They'll get back to us after the election and let us know what's best for us.

[August1991]

takeanumber, idealisttotheend, caesar. Make a prediction. Clear seat numbers by province. (Total house seats are 308 but it's best to calculate seats by province.)

RANT/

I like arithmetic because it forces precision, or at least an attempt at precision. Mathematics is a clear language and a great human invention. Let's teach this language well, and use it properly. For the same reason, I like profits as a measure. How does the left measure good?

/END RANT

I think the Ontario 106 seats are critical in any predection.

[idealisttotheend]

Atl:32

CPC 4

Lib 14

NDP 14

Que:75

BQ 55

Lib 20

Ont:106

CPC 46

Lib 52

NDP 8

SK/MB:28

CPC 14

Lib 3

NDP 11

Alta:28

CPC 26

Lib 2

BC:36

CPC 19

Lib 6

NDP 10

Grn 1

Terr: 3

Lib: 1

CPC: 1

NDP 1

CPC 110

Lib 98

NDP 44

Bloc 55

Grn 1

Libs leave the CPC to try and govern under these circumstances so they come back in the next election for the majority with Harper looking like a buffoon. I just guessed though at the numbers (i.e. lifted them from other people on the thread), I never paid enough attention to individual ridings to be accurate. I expect that Lib/NDP vote splitting will be a real factor in Ontario and my CPC numbers are probably low.

As to the left, I think that we judge things by how much profit is made also. The question of difference is who made the profits and how are those profits are distributed. You could say the left looks more at the mean average while the right looks more at the higher end of the range.

[caesar]

I am not left. I did the political test and ended up nearly smack dab in the center.

Unfortunately no party fits my list.

vote manipulation has already started at advanced polls.

I think we will see more recounts and fights than the Bush/ Gore situation.

Ethnic groups are taking over ridings; bringing in people to elect candidates and are now doing the same in the advance polls. The rest of us better get involved if we want candidates that represent our views in the running

[Rob1963]

My prediction is:

Libs - 120

Cons - 110

Bloc - 50

NDP - 28

[caesar]

I have no ideas or interest in guessing numbers. It will be a minority government of either

Liberal or Conservatives. We will be doing this all again a few months down the road. My guess is 2 to 3 months if Conservatives take power and 7 to 8 for the Liberals.

I hope that we learn more about the intentions of the Harper Conservatives and the Paul Martin Liberals to come to a more decisive choice. Although, neither party is going to go too far at first.

The NDP would be more compatible with the Liberals; and the Bloc will probably prefer to not shake the tree too quickly while they will have a lot of clout that could erode with a new election. It could be interesting and aggravating to watch. I really don't think it matters now which minority government gains this short termed power.

We could even get completely disgusted with both of them and give the NDP a chance.

Ho Hum; any good benevolent dictators around; they would be cheaper in the long run and we would know where we stand and what we personally have to budget for. Only half joking. After watching this bunch of political nitwits I am disgusted with the lot of them.

[Rob1963]

I agree Caesar

[August1991]

Revision noted, MS.

I wish to revise my seat projections. They are as follows:

Libs: 110 seats

Cons: 108 seats

Bloc: 50 seats

New Dem: 40 seats

Grn: 0 seats

Total 308 seats

[August1991]

Christopher Mac;

Canada

Conservative: 117

Liberal: 101

Bloc Québécois: 62

New Democratic Party: 25

Green Party: 1

Independent 2

[Analyst]

I Predict a Liberal Miniority!!!Pure and Simple....

[Goldie]

Tories.....133

Libs........111

Bloq........48

NDP........16

[Cartman]

I think that Rob has it about right but an Independent or two and the Green might snag a few seats. I think the NDP will not get that many seats.

The Liberals and the Conservatives should just merge as did the Alliance and the PC's. I do not think that they are very different.

[August1991]

Final seat results:

Atl

CPC 7

Lib 21

NDP 3

Que

BQ 54

Lib 21

Ont

CPC 24

Lib 75

NDP 4

SK/MB/Terr

CPC 20

Lib 7

NDP 4

Alta

CPC 26

Lib 2

BC

CPC 22

Lib 8

NDP 5

Oth 1

Totals

BQ 54

CPC 99

Lib 135

NDP 19

Oth 1

These are the people that got the Liberal win right. I'd say Fisher, Kliege and Kanada Dry were the closest.

BigGunner 10 Mar

Liberals 141

CPC 79

NDP 44

BQ 44

Pellaken 10 Mar

Liberal - 150

Conservative - 86

Bloc - 44

New Democrat - 30

Hjalmar 3 May

Liberals ----------- 162 seats

Conservatives --- 90 seats

Bloc ---------------- 45 seats

NDP ---------------- 11 seats

Doug Fisher 11 May

Liberals 135;

Conservatives 105;

Bloc Quebecois 45;

NDP 25

Kliege 23 May

Lib - 133

CPC - 102

BQ - 47

NDP - 26

Kanada Dry 25 June

Lieberals: 131

Conservatives: 96

Bloc: 47

NDP: 33

Cadman: 1

Motoro 26 June

Lib.......118

Con.....105

NDP.......25

Bloc.......59

Ind/Oth...1

Rob1963 28 June

Libs - 120

Cons - 110

Bloc - 50

NDP - 28

[maplesyrup]

Interesting how so many of us thought the Conservsatives were going to obtain the most seats.

I wonder why, eh?

[August1991]

I sincerely believe that up to a week before the election, the Cons were leading and the Ndp was edging to 30.

I was in southern Ontario at that time and those Liberal TV ads were running once every 30 minutes or so on the weekend before the election.

I don't think the so-called Con gaffes were important because the ads were specifically designed for people who don't watch the news and don't know Randy White from Conrad Black.

I'm not alone in this view. Simpson, Wente and Kinsella have said the same.

The Liberals think these tactics are perfectly legitimate, but ultimately they rely on the same logic as the sponsorship scandal. The ends justify the means.

James Carville is a charming guy who, I think, really wants to do good. David Herle is a snake. You can bet that Herle will have a nice meal at 24 Sussex and PM PM will give him a grateful look in the eyes. It's beyond cynicism; it's politics of the rawest kind.

BTW, the ads must have cost a bundle.

[incidentally, the only similar media saturation I've ever seen in Canadian politics was in 1984 in Quebec with a really stupid pro-Mulroney jingle on the radio. The damn thing was on every 30 minutes. But it wasn't attack.]

[Kiraly]

Just reading through some old posts when I came across this thread....

...I was pretty close, eh?

[tml12]

Just reading through some old posts when I came across this thread....

...I was pretty close, eh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you were,

I am relatively new to this forum (I joined a few months ago) but I seem to remember you as a different name...am I right???

[Kiraly]

Just reading through some old posts when I came across this thread....

...I was pretty close, eh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you were,

I am relatively new to this forum (I joined a few months ago) but I seem to remember you as a different name...am I right???

Yup...

Kanada Dry...

...I just had it changed.

[tml12]

Just reading through some old posts when I came across this thread....

...I was pretty close, eh?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes you were,

I am relatively new to this forum (I joined a few months ago) but I seem to remember you as a different name...am I right???

Yup...

Kanada Dry...

...I just had it changed.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I thought so...

Welcome back!!!

[August1991]

Let's do this again. I'll start the thread.

[tml12]

Let's do this again.  I'll start the thread.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Cool,

It will be interesting to see how our predictions change as the election goes along...