maplesyrup Posted February 26, 2004 Report Share Posted February 26, 2004 In Quebec, the Liberals have rebounded. CROP La Presse Bloc 38% CPC 11% Lib 38% NDP 13% This in itself almost ensures an election this spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldie Posted February 26, 2004 Report Share Posted February 26, 2004 What this poll means to me is that Liberal support has moved to the NDP, for now. This might result in the Bloq picking up more seats due to a stronger NDP. The Liberals are down 6% in Quebec and that could translate into a loss of about 15 seats. Ontario could kick out as many as 40 Liberals, some to the NDP and some to the Conservatives. That is 55 seats! Why would they call an election? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted February 26, 2004 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2004 Things will probably continue to improve poll wise for the Liberals. They want to have an election ASAP before other issues start to impact such as RCMP raids on the BC Legislature Same-sex marriage issue currently before Supreme Court Maher Arar Inquiry Sponsorship Scandal inquiry CPC's new leader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellaken Posted February 26, 2004 Report Share Posted February 26, 2004 NDP-13% wow. if we keep up those numbers, we'll elect some MP's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 27, 2004 Report Share Posted February 27, 2004 The poll was taken between 12-22 February. Sample 1003. (Please note these details in the future.) (The poll's main purpose was to determine the popularity of the Charest government. Result? Fast and direct south. What does this mean for ROC? God knows.) Look, English Quebec (including so-called allophones) will vote for the "Federalist Candidate Most Likely to Win". By common consent, this is the Liberal candidate. That's 20 or so of the 38. (These people do not park their votes in polls. The matter is too serious.) More interesting is the NDP. For the non-Liberal federalist vote (anglo/franco/allo), it seems to choose the NDP 2:1 to the CPC. If there's a Liberal tipping point, would they go NDP? I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted February 27, 2004 Report Share Posted February 27, 2004 Correction NOT 2:1. But the NDP at 13 and CPC at 11 is almost statistically significant. By informal info, the federalist vote in Quebec may choose the NDP as a Liberal alternative. That would be something. The NDP would be wise to identify the ridings where it has a chance. (The federalist vote cares less about specific party and absolutely does not want a BQ MP.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted March 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2004 Layton is a Quebecker with very strong conservative roots. 6/66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted March 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2004 I wonder how NDP candidate Pierre Lacasse is doing in Manicougan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted March 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2004 Liberals Seen Heading for Spring Election Mon Mar 1,11:20 PM ET By David Ljunggren OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Liberals are set to stick to plans for a May election now that opinion polls show public support rebounding in the wake of a major scandal, party sources said on Monday. A poll released on Saturday showed support had rebounded to 42 percent, just above the 41 percent that gave the Liberals a majority government in the November 2000 election. Party insiders said it made sense to go to the polls before bad news started flowing from the public inquiry Martin has called into how money destined for a program to boost national unity ended up in the hands of advertising firms with close Liberal ties. "I personally think it will be spring," said a senior aide to one of Martin's most experienced cabinet ministers. "The longer we wait the more chances there are of scandalous revelations coming out. And I don't see preparations for the election slowing down," the aide said. Another well-connected Liberal told Reuters: "The election will be this spring, I'm sure of it." But a veteran Liberal legislator told Reuters last Wednesday that even June was too late "because who knows what else there is out there waiting to hit us?" Professor Alan Whitehorn of the Royal Military College, who has been studying Canada's political parties for 40 years, said Martin was "strongly predisposed" to go to the polls early. "This is a man who wants to go in the spring and, unless he can see overwhelming reasons not to, his predisposition is to go... It's certainly easier to govern with a mandate than constantly be reminded by the opposition that you haven't gone to the people," he told Reuters. Liberal insiders say an early election would also put pressure on the newly formed opposition Conservative Party, which will elect a leader later this month and will not have time for a policy convention before May. More vulnerable Liberal members of Parliament, some of whom won their seats with as little as 35 percent of the vote in 2000, have said they would rather hold an election later. But the veteran Liberal legislator said this was unlikely. "Anyone who is not ready to start campaigning right now is a fool," he said. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor..._electionnn_col Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NDP Newbie Posted March 2, 2004 Report Share Posted March 2, 2004 Layton speaks better French than Chrétien...lol...Bouchard speaks better English. Layton does have Quebec roots though, but they ain't conservative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellaken Posted March 2, 2004 Report Share Posted March 2, 2004 Layton will sweep Quebec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NDP Newbie Posted March 3, 2004 Report Share Posted March 3, 2004 Layton will sweep Quebec If you're either serious or mocking me, you're wrong. I could see the NDP sweeping Quebec should the separatist movement ever collapse, but only because the NDP is the only party that isn't an asshole to them. (God knows they deserve it, and I'd probably be kicked out of the NDP if someone important found out that I'm ideologically even more hard-line anti-separatist than the CPC, but from a Machiavellian perspective, the NDP is smart to not treat them like the shit that they are.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted March 3, 2004 Report Share Posted March 3, 2004 The NDP will NOT sweep Quebec. There is a chance that the NDP will get some votes in traditionally federalist/anglo/Liberal ridings. (That would be something!) I don't know if this will turn into seats. The NDP would be wise to go shopping. (Layton was recently on local radio saying all the right things for an English audience - he registers nowhere with French.) The hard-core federalist vote is in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens with PM PM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted March 26, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 Liberal MP Nault just said Martin should wait until the fall to call election. Liberals showing weakness in parts of Ontario, Quebec & West. Quebec is the main problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigGunner Posted March 26, 2004 Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 Losing really is a b*tch, ain't it? Liberals and conservatives will both lose seats in the election.. Bring it on!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted March 26, 2004 Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 The original plan was clearly to have a spring election. I suspect delaying it will cause the Liberals problems. In addition, it will catch the Tories short - they've only nominated half their candidates; about 10 or so in Quebec. The Liberals seem happy with the reaction to the budget. I suspect though the polls are not kind to the Liberals - in both Quebec and Ontario. Anyone know when the next polls will be made public? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted March 26, 2004 Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 An interesting sidenote: If Martin sticks to the original election date of May 10, that means he'll have to dissolve Parliament on April 4th at the latest, even if he calls the election later, that doesn't give us much more. That leaves very little Parliament session time left, and so any bills currently going through will in all likelihood not be completed when Parliament is dissolved and so die forever. Svend Robinson's Bill C-250 is currently going through. What this means is that a spring election will almost certainly be the kiss of death for this bill. I wonder how that will impact the NDP and the gay-rights activists? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted March 26, 2004 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 What is C-250? A private members bill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted March 26, 2004 Report Share Posted March 26, 2004 Yes. It adds sexual orientation to the attributes towards which it is a criminal offence to direct "hate speech" at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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