Conservatives Panic?

[Visionseeker]

CTV reports that Harper may ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament on September 5:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

This would initiate a general election and negate four by-elections set for the month of September.

Harper contends that Parliament has become too "dysfunctional" to continue. But it doesn't take a Nobel Prize in economics to see a much more pedestrian motive at work.

Two recent announcements shed some light on the basic math. First, the government announced that a second quarter surplus not only erased the deficit recorded in the first quarter, but left a $1.2 billion cumulative surplus in its place. Defying the conventional wisdom of many economists.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/08/22/junesurplus.html

How? Well one need only look at another recent announcement to get the answer:

http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/Front/1074911.html

"$2.1 billion project quietly cancelled because of cost"

That's right, the supply ships were dropped so that $2.1 billion could be pulled from future spending to prevent a mid- October headline reading "Government posts $2 billion deficit in the second quarter".

It's called Ernie Eves' accounting. And voters in Ontario are apt to smell it.

The campaign could indeed shake-up what we see in the polls, but I would bet that a Conservative majority isn't in the cards if the contest goes this fall. A weakened minority is their best case scenario. But playing defense in September is all they got. For an Obama win in November combined with worsening economic news here would innevitably elavate Liberal fortunes if the contest runs later.

[jdobbin]

CTV reports that Harper may ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament on September 5:

It seems Harper is moving with haste to pull the plug on the by-elections.

The Privy Council poll, the talk of an internal poll showing Liberal support rising if Obama wins as they mentioned on Question Period on CTV. The Tories might fear that if either McCain or Obama wins, it could mean Liberal support rising. Who knows?

You can't really talk about a dysfunctional Parliament as an excuse if you don't even call it back into session.

Harper must feel it is not going to get any better and will discard his promise of not calling an election himself.

I was widely dismissed in these forums for suggesting that he had the power and might use it even without calling for a confidence vote or even having Parliament in session.

I'm sure the Conservative supporters will blame the Liberals for this if Harper does call an election but that is really stretching it. Where is the trigger for this election? Was it a confidence vote? No. Was it a Parliament that is hopelessly deadlocked? No.

Harper said he would not call a vote when it was convenient to the government. What is this?

Some people will let him have a pass on this if he does call it but the one thing Harper has traded in is credibility and his goes down for every broken promise.

[Oleg Bach]

Once the Cheneyites are gone - Harper is gone - Steven made a mistake taking his orders from Bay and Wall street - this is not a leader.

[Moonbox]

This has nothing to do with Harper being worried. If he calls and election it's because he thinks he can win.

If he wins, he extends his term. Chretien did it too. He called an election halfway through his term and won it just because the environment looked right for it. This is what Harper is doing.

Nothing has happened to make him even remotely afraid. The hypocrisy of the average liberal supporter (i like to call them sheep) knows no end.

The liberals allowed our military to deteriorate to the sorry state its in today yet the sheep are bleating and carrying on when Harper announces he's not approving any over-budget contracts for new ships in the face of a much slower economy.

The federal liberals were by FAR the biggest social service cutters in Canadian history, and have a pretty pathetic record of standing up to big business, yet they have the gall to proclaim the conservatives as big business flunkies. I think it's hilarious that the average bleating sheep out there somehow thinks that the liberals are the party most likely to look after the common person when their record over the last 15 years shows the exact opposite.

If you ask the average liberal supporter, almost nobody is able to come up with any real reason why they support them. The only thing they can really agree on is that they're united in their common blind and stupid dislike for the CPC. Again, though, they can't really come up with any good arguments about why they hate Harper, other than the typical liberal rhetoric. Things like, "Harper is mini-bush" or "Harper is all about big-business" or "Harper is a crook" are what usually come to mind, but the average person can't really actually come up with any specific policies or doings they find offensive.

Dion is a joke. He'll flounder in an election. Canada is not going to elect anyone who can't even really speak proper english.

[Shakeyhands]

This has nothing to do with Harper being worried. If he calls and election it's because he thinks he can win.

If he calls an election, it's so that it appears to be his call, nothing more. And if he isn't worried, he should be, not a great track record on the things he campaigned on last time.

Canada is not going to elect anyone who can't even really speak proper english.

This is a really funny statement. I think you may be forgetting your recent history a little bit.

[fellowtraveller]

Has Dion abandoned the summr rubber chicken circuit yet, and gone begging for money again at the banks? You'd have to wonder at what the banks will ask for in pay back, since the Lberal Paty of Canada is so clearly a poor credit risk. They cannot come close to managing themselves, yet we are asked to believe they can manage the economy of a G8 nation. Perhaps their plan is to revert to their proven track record and simply award themseves cash through Adscam2 after an election.

It will be interesting to see the Liberals fight another election on borrowed funds, since ordinary Candians consistently refuse to support them financially.

[Vancouver King]

Has Dion abandoned the summr rubber chicken circuit yet, and gone begging for money again at the banks? You'd have to wonder at what the banks will ask for in pay back, since the Lberal Paty of Canada is so clearly a poor credit risk. They cannot come close to managing themselves, yet we are asked to believe they can manage the economy of a G8 nation. Perhaps their plan is to revert to their proven track record and simply award themseves cash through Adscam2 after an election.

It will be interesting to see the Liberals fight another election on borrowed funds, since ordinary Candians consistently refuse to support them financially.

When asked by the bankers what collateral he can summon he need only say, "I am the leader of the country's natural governing party", and a blank cheque will be quickly placed in front of him.

[jdobbin]

This has nothing to do with Harper being worried. If he calls and election it's because he thinks he can win.

And Harper made a promise not to call an election before his term was up. Another broken promise.

Dion is a joke. He'll flounder in an election. Canada is not going to elect anyone who can't even really speak proper english.

English is spelled with a capital E.

[jdobbin]

It will be interesting to see the Liberals fight another election on borrowed funds, since ordinary Candians consistently refuse to support them financially.

Harper was against restrictions in election financing when he was out of office. Now he is all about tax supported elections and party support?

[Fortunata]

This has nothing to do with Harper being worried. If he calls and election it's because he thinks he can win.

This is all about being Harpertunistic even though it was his "fixed election date" bill. He knows that if he doesn't go now, once Parliament reconvenes his numbers go lower as Canadians pay more attention to the CPC's antics.

If he wins, he extends his term. Chretien did it too. He called an election halfway through his term and won it just because the environment looked right for it. This is what Harper is doing.

Chretien didn't put into place a fixed election date, Harper did just so the PM couldn't call an election at his own advantage. Oh the flip-flopping hypocrite!!

Nothing has happened to make him even remotely afraid. The hypocrisy of the average liberal supporter (i like to call them sheep) knows no end.

He should be. But the hypocrisy of the herd knows no end to what they'll justify no matter how against what Harper preached last election or when in opposition or as part of the NCC.

Again, though, they can't really come up with any good arguments about why they hate Harper, other than the typical liberal rhetoric. Things like, "Harper is mini-bush" or "Harper is all about big-business" or "Harper is a crook" are what usually come to mind, but the average person can't really actually come up with any specific policies or doings they find offensive.

How about his bullying? His mean? His changing stance on pandering to Quebec, abortion, health care and other social programs from what he preached from the NCC pulpit? And we know damned well his mind isn't changed, he's suspended his beliefs and ethics for votes. He's a whore. He'd sell his ethics, sell his principles and sell out his own mother for another seat.

Dion is a joke.

Perhaps Dion is a joke. But that joke will keep Harper from a majority. How funny is that?

[Moonbox]

This is all about being Harpertunistic even though it was his "fixed election date" bill. He knows that if he doesn't go now, once Parliament reconvenes his numbers go lower as Canadians pay more attention to the CPC's antics.

Or he knows that for the last year parliament has been focused on pretty much nothing but a possible election. The threat of an election looming ever overhead is enough to make parliament disfunctional. If Harper feels that he cannot advance his voter-given mandate because he has to adjust every bill to meet the needs of the bleating sheep in parliament, that IS disfunctional, despite what wussy Dion has been saying. Dion said he may be ready for an election, Harper said, "Fine let's get it over with," and now Dion is looking like a chump for getting called on his bluff.

How about his bullying? His mean? His changing stance on pandering to Quebec, abortion, health care and other social programs from what he preached from the NCC pulpit? And we know damned well his mind isn't changed, he's suspended his beliefs and ethics for votes. He's a whore. He'd sell his ethics, sell his principles and sell out his own mother for another seat.

See this is rhetoric again. His bullying? Give us a solid example that would be any different than Chretien or Layton or whoever else there's been in recent history. His stance changing and pandering? Are you kidding me??? Pandering is how the Liberals have become the dominant force in politics for the last 20 years. Where does almost ALL of the Liberal's support come from I'll ask? Large urban centres. What's different about these places? Dominant ethnic populations. Why are these predominantly liberal? Because you'd be hard-pressed to find a more lenient immigration policy ANYWHERE in the western world than Liberal immigration policy. Large concentrations of ethnic people vote almost EXCLUSIVELY liberal, and that's because the Liberals make it easy for their aunts and uncles and parents and grandparents to move here under 'family-reunification' and so mooch off of our social welfare system.

When we go over ethics, I think we can basically rule out any advantage the Liberals may have in that department, so even if the Liberals WERE able to nail him on any issue of poor ethics, they'd not have a leg to stand on.

As for beliefs, THANK THE GODS that we have a politician who's more concerned with governing the country well than he is with his own personal beliefs. If he had any intention of changing abortion laws, or gay marriage laws, or anything else like that, I'd likely cast my vote with the sheep herd and go Liberal. I'm smart enough, however, to know that Harper has no intention to even touch these, because he's smart enough to know that Canadians want nothing to do with that....kind of like Dion's LOLGREENSHIFTLOL.

[jdobbin]

Or he knows that for the last year parliament has been focused on pretty much nothing but a possible election.

That simply defies the amount of legislation that has been passed in the last year.

Harper never believed in fixed elections. He is saying that he has a gun to his head? Baloney. You can't say that Dion is caving to every Harper initiative and then attribute a mad genius to the man that he is blocking Harper in Parliament.

[Shakeyhands]

now the fixed election dates only apply to Majority gov'ts.... oh this is good.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/485796

Harper said the law fixing elections every four years – under which the next election was supposed to be Oct. 19, 2009 – only applies to majority governments. It can't apply to a minority in which opposition parties could defeat the government at any time.

[M.Dancer]

now the fixed election dates only apply to Majority gov'ts.... oh this is good.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/485796

That makes sense. How does a fixed date stand when the house losses confidence in the government?

[capricorn]

As for beliefs, THANK THE GODS that we have a politician who's more concerned with governing the country well than he is with his own personal beliefs. If he had any intention of changing abortion laws, or gay marriage laws, or anything else like that, I'd likely cast my vote with the sheep herd and go Liberal. I'm smart enough, however, to know that Harper has no intention to even touch these, because he's smart enough to know that Canadians want nothing to do with that....kind of like Dion's LOLGREENSHIFTLOL.

Spot on except for the supporting Liberals angle. I am a card carrying Conservative supporter but if they toyed with abortion and the rights already extended to gays and lesbians, I would turn my back on politics and devote myself entirely to UFO and other alien diversions.

[Wild Bill]

now the fixed election dates only apply to Majority gov'ts.... oh this is good.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/485796

Well, all the talking heads pointed this out from the very start! If a minority government could be brought down by a confidence motion then of course the fixed election date would become moot.

Funny how something so obvious was pointed out and then apparently forgotten. I guess no one thought it would become a big deal. No one ever conceived of a situation where the opposition would refuse every opportunity to bring down the government. In effect, that has meant that we have an artificial situation where the Opposition would refuse to do its job. It was assumed that to do so would be so embarrassing as to become a political negative to the Opposition. No one imagined a situation where that would be LESS damaging to the Oppposition than the alternative!

In software it's called de-bugging, I guess.

[jdobbin]

now the fixed election dates only apply to Majority gov'ts.... oh this is good.

Why bother to call by-elections if the government thought confidence was lost? What a waste of money. I don't understand how confidence is lost only days after calling the fourth by-election.

[capricorn]

Why bother to call by-elections if the government thought confidence was lost?

I thought there was a legislated requirement for calling these by-elections. Shows you how much I know.

[jdobbin]

Well, all the talking heads pointed this out from the very start! If a minority government could be brought down by a confidence motion then of course the fixed election date would become moot.

Not quite moot. Harper continued to say his government would serve to the end of their term and would not pull the plug at their convenience. If the election is called next week, it is at their convenience. They didn't lose a confidence vote. They really haven't lost confidence at all since they are still able to push through their agenda.

This is kind of like Harper's justification to appoint someone to the Senate and then the cabinet and keep them there nearly three years where they don't have to respond to questions in the House and picking up Emerson in a surprise floor crossing and placing him in the cabinet. Even Conservative supporters were upset in the aftermath and it was one of the first kinks in the credibility of Stephen Harper.

[jdobbin]

I thought there was a legislated requirement for calling these by-elections. Shows you how much I know.

Not for the fourth one. He had plenty of time to wait for that one. Why call it if a general election was only days later?

And what has changed since he called that fourth one in terms of confidence?

Edited August 27, 2008 by jdobbin

[Shakeyhands]

That makes sense. How does a fixed date stand when the house losses confidence in the government?

Did the house lose confidence when I wasn't looking?

[M.Dancer]

Did the house lose confidence when I wasn't looking?

Did Harper call an election?

[jdobbin]

Did the house lose confidence when I wasn't looking?

I think Harper lost confidence in his ability to keep his minority if he waits longer.

[Smallc]

Did Harper call an election?

No, but he will. Another promise made, another promise broken. I don't see how conservatives can complain about Liberals being liars.

I'm having real trouble deciding who to support. I'm a Liberal, but I don't like Dion. Harper seemed to be the best choice, but that seems to be changing quite quickly.

Edited August 27, 2008 by Smallc

[capricorn]

I'm having real trouble deciding who to support. I'm a Liberal, but I don't like Dion. Harper seemed to be the best choice, but that seems to be changing quite quickly.

That leaves you with the Greens or the NDP. Sleep well tonight.