Byelections 17 March 2008

[oreodontist]

I'm not sure Canadians are all that influenced by 'the leader' as we once were. Mulroney and Chretien put a bad taste in some mouths. Harper and Dion both lack charisma but perhaps this is less of an issue than 20 years ago. Layton certainly has more than the other leaders combined but the party is on the slide. Here in Alberta Stelmach wins an overwhelming majority and he's a dead stick in charisma in comparison to Klein.

Where a strong leader there may be more impact is within the parties themselves. Dion doesn't seem to have the presence in his party to rally the troops. Harper, being the PM, has more carrots to quell the dissidents.

Polls have shown Canadian satisfied with a minority government. I'm in the same camp. We're leary of the almost free rein given to a PM with a majority. It becomes all 'Mulroney' or 'Chretien' and less about give and take.

[HisSelf]

Toronto Centre is indeed awash with blue blood and hard cash.

It is awash with po' folks. Compare their numbers to those of the big money Rosedale crowd. The folks who live on the hill have the money to pay for a big media campaign, and they usually have their way until a really good populist shows up.... So the folks who live on the hill are currently backing the Libs....

At least one of the Toronto Hills....

[fellowtraveller]

Northern Saskatchewan is probably not all that surprising. Saskatchewan is feeling their oats (with oil) and as other posters have mentioned, they seem to be turning the corner and alligning with Alberta politics.

There is a more plausible explanation for the change in tenor in Sakatchewan: rejection of socialism. It is a wave that we see in the rejection pof the NDP nearly everywhere, nationally and provincially, despite the obvious and numerous excellent opportunities for Layton in the last few years.

That leaves only Manitoba on the dumb end of the stick.

[Wilber]

Quadra is interesting. The CPC came within whisper of taking back a seat they hadn't held since 1984 and which the Liberals won by over 10,000 votes in the last election. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Dion in Vancouver.

[jdobbin]

There is a more plausible explanation for the change in tenor in Sakatchewan: rejection of socialism. It is a wave that we see in the rejection pof the NDP nearly everywhere, nationally and provincially, despite the obvious and numerous excellent opportunities for Layton in the last few years.

That leaves only Manitoba on the dumb end of the stick.

And yet Harper gets along well with Doer and even commended him this week on reducing corporate taxes.

[jdobbin]

Quadra is interesting. The CPC came within whisper of taking back a seat they hadn't held since 1984 and which the Liberals won by over 10,000 votes in the last election. Hardly a ringing endorsement of Dion in Vancouver.

I think you can thank a stronger Green vote there. How strong that vote is during a general election remains to be seen. Byelections are different animals than general elections. People often take a chance on a party or a person when national issues are less prominent.

[normanchateau]

As one who lives and voted yesterday in Vancouver Quadra, here's my two cents worth. Quadra was a safe seat for Stephen Owen but is not a safe Liberal seat. When Stephen Owen ran for parliament the first time in 2000, there was only a 7% spread between him and the Canadian Alliance candidate. The combined Canadian Alliance/Progressive Conservative vote was greater than the Liberal vote in 2000. Similarly, the combined Reform/Progressive Conservative vote in Quadra was greater than the Liberal vote in both 1997 and 1993.

Stephen Owen worked very hard for his constituents and many of us know him personally. Hence his increased percentage of the vote in 2004 and 2006. The Conservative vote in 2004, 2006 and even 2008 was actually far lower than the combined Canadian Alliance/Progressive Conservative votes or the combined Reform/Progressive Conservative votes. With the right leader, i.e., someone other than Stephen Harper, the Conservatives should be able to win this seat.

In yesterday's by-election, with a very weak Liberal candidate, Joyce Murray, the Liberal vote declined by 13%, the Conservative vote rose by 6% and the Green vote increased by 8%. Joyce Murray was a provincial MLA who lost her seat in the last provincial election. I anticipate that the Conservatives will run a stronger candidate in the next federal election and the Liberals would be wise to do the same.

Despite living in one of the wealthiest ridings in Canada, 64% of Quadra voters yesterday voted for parties to the left of the Conservatives.

[Vancouver King]

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

[normanchateau]

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

Unless you count the Belinda Stronach-like MP for Vancouver Kingsway who wisely chose not to run in Vancouver Quadra, the riding in which he resides.

[Vancouver King]

Christy Clarke, analyst on CTV's coverage last night, made an interesting point: With Findlay and Rae joining Ignatieff on the front benches, the party can promote the Liberal brand in a campaign as a team approach to govt. - a distinct contrast to the one man Tory show we have now.

[Wild Bill]

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

Agreed! The cultures of those three cities are so diverse from anywhere else in Canada that they really should not only be made into provinces of their own but perhaps even separate countries!

These cities call all the political shots yet have nothing in common with the rest of Canada's values and needs.

Edited March 19, 2008 by Wild Bill

[capricorn]

Christy Clarke, analyst on CTV's coverage last night, made an interesting point: With Findlay and Rae joining Ignatieff on the front benches, the party can promote the Liberal brand in a campaign as a team approach to govt. - a distinct contrast to the one man Tory show we have now.

Yes, it is an interesting observation. This is also evident in that the top Liberals are also using the word "team" in virtually all their recent pronouncements.

IMO it is Dion's ineptness as a leader that cries out for the positive influence those illustrious Liberals may bring. Ignatieff and Rae will be competing for maximum visibility since both want to succeed Dion. Sadly, I think Hall-Findley will be reduced to a shadow in this show of strength. I hope she proves me wrong.

[Wilber]

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

It's that kind of attitude which helps make them popular outside of those cities.

[JaysFan]

Is this the way that Conservatives lose?

By resorting to thuggery type tactics?

Thugs vandalize MP's helpers vehicles

Tires slashed, cars scratched in byelection winner's riding

By BRYN WEESE, SUN MEDIA

The Toronto Sun

Lino Belgiorgio of Willowdale was one of several people with Liberal signs on their lawns who had tires slashed and the body work of their cars keyed with the letter "L."

Political thuggery is alive and well in Willowdale.

Following Martha Hall Findlay's landslide win in that riding in the north end of the city Monday night, scores of her supporters woke up yesterday morning to find their tires had been slashed and the letter "L" had been scratched into their cars.

The Sun has learned at least 14 vehicles were vandalized, many yesterday night but some Sunday night, a day before Findlay trounced her opponents with nearly 60% support.

At least one of the victims is a woman in her 70s who had two tires slashed.

Of the vandalized cars the Sun knows about, all were parked in private driveways with Martha Hall Findlay campaign signs in the yard, even though some had been taken down yesterday.

"It's thuggery, that's what it is," said Lino Belgiorgio who had nine tires slashed among the family's three vehicles. "You'll end up thinking twice before ever expressing any political view, and that's a deterioration of our civil liberties. We can't allow that to happen."

His wife was equally concerned.

"To me, it's sending a message. They're saying, 'If you put a sign up and you support the Liberals, this is what you're going to get'," Carole said. "That's not right."

Read the rest here

[margrace]

Are we to be like our neigbours to the south and be punished for critizing Harper. This man and his party are getting progressively more scarry.

[August1991]

Is this the way that Conservatives lose?

There is absolutely no evidence that anyone associated with the Conservative Party is responsible for this vandalism.

There were candidates of several political parties in the byelection. Why not blame the others? And who says it was a political opponent anyway?

JaysFan, you do the anti-Harper campaign a disservice when you post such juvenile tripe.

[normanchateau]

Here's another observation. The percentage of the by-election vote captured by the Conservatives increased substantially in the two western ridings relative to their percentage in the 2006 election. Harper did not campaign nor even show his face in those ridings. Coincidence?

[Pliny]

......and let's not forget that constant measure of Tory futility: Canada's largest three cities remain a wasteland for Harper - still not a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver.

Must have something to do with the local newspapers highlighting urban problems that the "gummerment oughta do something about".

[Pliny]

Is this the way that Conservatives lose?

By resorting to thuggery type tactics?

Read the rest here

I saw nothing about Conservatives being apprehended in that article. Do you live in Willowdale, Jaysfan?

[normanchateau]

Conservative strategists take note. Keep Harper out of the ridings in the next election.

[White Doors]

Is this the way that Conservatives lose?

By resorting to thuggery type tactics?

Read the rest here

I may not like your opinions, but I have to admit you hold a balanced, reasonable and nuanced point of view.

[Argus]

Is this the way that Conservatives lose?

By resorting to thuggery type tactics?

Read the rest here

How do we know you didn't do it? How do we know it wasn't a discontented wacko NDPer?

And btw, anyone with a huge (and hugely stupid) sig like yours is just begging to be put on the ignored list.

[normanchateau]

These cities call all the political shots yet have nothing in common with the rest of Canada's values and needs.

If these cities called all the shots, they'd not be burdened with Stephen Harper as Prime Minister.

[guyser]

These cities call all the political shots yet have nothing in common with the rest of Canada's values and needs.

Then they would be rich countries.....and with nothing in common w the ROC I guess they might throw a few bucks to the poor ROC.....might.

[normanchateau]

These cities call all the political shots yet have nothing in common with the rest of Canada's values

How do their values differ?