Byelections 17 March 2008

[August1991]

The Liberals are certain to win three and likely all four of these byelections. So, this is going to be a numbers game. If the Liberals get less than 50% in these ridings (except for Saskatchewan), then the media will spin this against Dion.

These are the 2006 numbers for the Liberals to beat, or the Tories to better:

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

Gary Merasty LIB 10191 41.37%

Jeremy Harrison CON 10124 41.09%

Anita Jackson NDP 3787 15.37%

John A. McDonald GRN 534 2.17%

Vancouver Quadra

Stephen Owen LIB 28655 49.14%

Stephen Rogers CON 16844 28.89%

David Askew NDP 9379 16.08%

Ben West GRN 2974 5.1%

Willowdale

Jim Peterson LIB 30623 55.23%

Jovan Boseovski CON 16254 29.32%

Rochelle Carnegie NDP 6297 11.36%

Sharolyn Vettese GRN 2268 4.09%

Toronto Centre

Bill Graham LIB 30874 52.23%

Michael Shapcott NDP 14036 23.74%

Lewis Reford CON 10763 18.21%

Chris Tindal GRN 3080 5.21%

I have the suspicion that the NDP and Greens will do well.

[Sean Hayward]

The Liberals will, without a shadow of a doubt, win 3 of the 4, and the Saskatchewan riding is questionable, especially given Dion's early mistakes meddling in the nomination process. This will most likely be seen as a reinforcement of Dion's leadership, but if the Conservatives manage to get a seat, they can claim victory as well. It is a situation in which both major parties can claim success and so the only real effect of these byelections will be to encourage both parties towards causing an election (maybe it will give the Liberals enough confidence to actually vote in the future). I disagree that the Saskatchewan riding will "likely" go Liberal, I see it as being more up for grabs.

[Canadian Blue]

So far the Tories are leading in Saskatchewan. However I think that if anything this might show that people don't appreciate Stephane Dion meddling in the nomination battles, especially when the original candidate helped him win the leadership.

[jdobbin]

So far the Tories are leading in Saskatchewan. However I think that if anything this might show that people don't appreciate Stephane Dion meddling in the nomination battles, especially when the original candidate helped him win the leadership.

The Tories are declared in Saskatchewan. The Liberals have won the two Toronto ridings and are pulling ahead in B.C.

I don't know that they would have done any better with Orchard as their candidate. And it may have resulted in more problems that it solved if he had run, won and been a thorn in Parliament for his own party.

Edited March 18, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Willowdale

Green Party Lou Carcasole 1,241 5.9

NDP-New Democratic Party Rini Ghosh 998 4.7

Liberal Martha Hall Findlay 12,482 59.3

Conservative Maureen Harquail 6,335 30.1

Toronto-Centre

NDP-New Democratic Party El-Farouk Khaki 2,780 13.9

Conservative Donald Meredith 2,508 12.6

Liberal Bob Rae 11,734 58.7

Green Party Chris Tindal 2,786 13.9

Elections Canada Live Link

Most of the polls have reported in these two ridings. I'd say that Dion and the Liberals have done well in urban English Canada. They held their own against the NDP/Greens. We'll have to wait for Vancouver Quadra.

[jdobbin]

Most of the polls have reported in these two ridings. I'd say that Dion and the Liberals have done well in urban English Canada. They held their own against the NDP/Greens. We'll have to wait for Vancouver Quadra.

They are still pulling ahead in Vancouver. Dion should get a bit of a boost from this at least within his own party. It will give him some more heft on the front benches with Rae and Hall-Findlay in the House.

The big concern is the NDP who are tied with the Greens in Toronto Center and are ahead of the NDP in Quadra and Willowdale. It is a huge defeat for them.

Edited March 18, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

They are still pulling ahead in Vancouver. Dion should get a bit of a boost from this at least within his own party. It will give him some more heft on the front benches with Rae and Hall-Findlay in the House.

The big concern is the NDP who are tied with the Greens in Toronto Center and are ahead of the NDP in Quadra and Willowdale. It is a huge defeat for them.

In the Toronto ridings, the Liberals had two strong but controversial candidates. Byelections are designed for protest. Yet the Greens and NDP have done poorly.

Rae and Hall-Findlay bettered in percentage terms the Liberal candidates in 2006. This is a victory for Dion - in the narrow confines of the urban English Canada electorate.

Dobbin, here's a scenario for you: Dion as a minority PM after the next election, and then a return of Harper.

Long ago, I predicted that this time - until 2020 at least - will be known as the Dion/Harper Age. Maybe my prediction will come true.

Edited March 18, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

In the Toronto ridings, the Liberals had two strong but controversial candidates. Byelections are designed for protest. Yet the Greens and NDP have done poorly.

Rae and Hall-Findlay bettered in percentage terms the Liberal candidates in 2006. This is a victory for Dion - in the narrow confines of the urban English Canada electorate.

Dobbin, here's a scenario for you: Dion as a minority PM after the next election, and then a return of Harper.

Long ago, I predicted that this time - until 2020 at least - will be known as the Dion/Harper Age. Maybe my prediction will come true.

I think that Harper fighting with Ontario is getting the backs up many people. Saskatchewan is turning into a monolithic Conservative province just as Alberta is. Could be oil is doing that.

I don't know that this is a defeat for the Greens. The NDP must be quaking in their boots though.

Dion can breath a sign of relief. His best strategy is to run with the best team rather than the cult of personality that Chretien and Trudeau used.

[August1991]

I think that Harper fighting with Ontario is getting the backs up many people. Saskatchewan is turning into a monolithic Conservative province just as Alberta is. Could be oil is doing that.

I don't know that this is a defeat for the Greens. The NDP must be quaking in their boots though.

Dion can breath a sign of relief. His best strategy is to run with the best team rather than the cult of personality that Chretien and Trudeau used.

I don't know Saskatchewan politics well but based on the past provincial election, I get the impression that Saskatchewan has gone Albertan. A whack of money on the table has a tendency to do that.

I agree too that this appears to be primarily a defeat for the NDP (and the Greens). Dion and the Liberals are the Official Urban English Canada Opposition to Harper - not Layton, the NDP or the Greens.

Now then, cult of personality. Putin managed it but I agree that Dion is better to avoid trying. Curiously though, Ignatieff and Rae may be players but they're not Clinton. Rae had his time in the sun and Ignatieff is at most a modern day Clifford Sifton. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think either will contest Dion if Dion forms a minority government.

Edited March 18, 2008 by August1991

[Vancouver King]

CTV coverage made much of the very close results in Vancouver Quadra. Determined to explain this, I conducted my own unscientific exit poll between 7PM and 9PM.

To my astonishment, 29% of respondents felt that since every house in the riding is now worth in excess of $1 million and average family incomes exceed $115,000; they took a leap of faith and calculated they were rich enough to vote Conservative.

[August1991]

To my astonishment, 29% of respondents felt that since every house in the riding is now worth in excess of $1 million and average family incomes exceed $115,000; they took a leap of faith and calculated...

that they were Conservatives?

Just say it.

Conservatives are rich. NDP are poor. (Liberals are poor people who want to be rich. That's so 1980s. Now it doesn't work.)

Conservatives are rich.

[Keepitsimple]

Very interesting results. Liberals lost one and almost lost another. The McGuinty bashing by Flaherty may seem counter-productive in the short term but make no mistake - McGuinty is on a different track than the rest of Canada. His high spending, high taxing government will continue to drive business away and not attract new business. This will become more and more apparent as the months roll on. That's probably why Greg Sorbara left - he could see that what he started was not sustainable. John Tory has now picked up the gauntlet and is pressing McGuinty to change tactics. By the time the next election rolls around, Ontarians will see that Flaherty was right. I doubt that it will win seats in Toronto proper - thery are a lost cause and deserve who they elect - what have the Liberals ever done for the City of Toronto?.....but it should play well in the 905 area.

Vancouver Quadra was interesting - perhaps it's a sign of the Conservatives' organizing skills or maybe, just maybe, the Conservatives' investments in BC are paying off. Regardless of the reasons, making a horse-race out of a repeat handily-won Liberal riding has got to be good news for the Tories.

Northern Saskatchewan is probably not all that surprising. Saskatchewan is feeling their oats (with oil) and as other posters have mentioned, they seem to be turning the corner and alligning with Alberta politics.

All told, more bad news than good for Dion. Although he now has welcomed two competent MP's to Parliament, his hand-picked nominee (against party advice) lost in Saskatchewan and he came within a whisker of losing a safe Liberal seat in Vancouver.

Edited March 18, 2008 by Keepitsimple

[Alta4ever]

that they were Conservatives?

Just say it.

Conservatives are rich. NDP are poor. (Liberals are poor people who want to be rich. That's so 1980s. Now it doesn't work.)

Conservatives are rich.

Funny I'm not rich, just lower middle class, but solidly conservative.

[kimmy]

In the Toronto ridings, the Liberals had two strong but controversial candidates. Byelections are designed for protest. Yet the Greens and NDP have done poorly.

Rae and Hall-Findlay bettered in percentage terms the Liberal candidates in 2006. This is a victory for Dion - in the narrow confines of the urban English Canada electorate.

Susan Riley (of the Ottawa Citizen) was on my radio a few minutes ago. She had completely opposite take on things. She felt the results were a setback for the Liberals and a major disappointment for Dion personally.

Rae and Hall-Findlay were undeniably star candidates. Hall-Findlay's unexpectedly strong performance in the Liberal leadership race gave her national recognition... Riley thinks that Hall-Findlay is the strongest female politician Canada has seen since Sheila Copps and Deb Grey left Ottawa (I'm not not sure that is high praise, but nevermind.) Rae, of course, needs no introduction. They are "controversial" only in the sense that they fought for Dion's job.

Outside of the two landslides wins by contenders to Dion's job, the Liberals lost one riding they held and squeeked out a 1% victory in a riding that's been Liberal for years and was won by a huge margin in prior elections. Vancouver Quadra the kind of riding that has been automatic for the Liberals before now.

The powerful wins by two high-profile candidates don't do anything to endorse the theory that Dion is winning English Canada over.

The loss of a prairie seat they held, and particularly the squeaker win in urban Vancouver, strongly suggest that English Canada isn't as excited about Dion as Liberals had hoped. Byelections are often taken as the opportunity to send a complaint to the government in power, but in this case people declined the opportunity and sent the Liberals a big question-mark instead.

Susan Riley's view was that yesterday's results will dampen the Liberals' enthusiasm for an election.

-k

[jdobbin]

Very interesting results. Liberals lost one and almost lost another. The McGuinty bashing by Flaherty may seem counter-productive in the short term but make no mistake - McGuinty is on a different track than the rest of Canada. His high spending, high taxing government will continue to drive business away and not attract new business. This will become more and more apparent as the months roll on. That's probably why Greg Sorbara left - he could see that what he started was not sustainable. John Tory has now picked up the gauntlet and is pressing McGuinty to change tactics. By the time the next election rolls around, Ontarians will see that Flaherty was right. I doubt that it will win seats in Toronto proper - thery are a lost cause and deserve who they elect - what have the Liberals ever done for the City of Toronto?.....but it should play well in the 905 area.

I guess hope springs eternal for PCs in Ontario. They blew the last election and have a long way to dig themselves out. The federal attack on Ontario was shown in a Decima poll to be something that hurt the Tories. And yet they persist.

The campaign by the two Conservative campaign showed disorganization and highhandedness with the two candidate dodging debates.

The federal Tories will have to do a lot better than that because it is a seat rich area and as you say, they show signs of having written it off. How many more seats can they win in Alberta? 0. How many more seats can they win in Saskatchewan? 1.

Vancouver Quadra was interesting - perhaps it's a sign of the Conservatives' organizing skills or maybe, just maybe, the Conservatives' investments in BC are paying off. Regardless of the reasons, making a horse-race out of a repeat handily-won Liberal riding has got to be good news for the Tories.

Quadra was once a solid Tory seat. It was a steal for the Liberals with John Turner in 1984. Did the Tories run a good candidate? Yes. Did Liberal support go to her? No. Some Liberal support in the riding went to the Green candidate.

The NDP will have to watch their backs. The Green support has jumped in all those seats.

In a general election, we'll have to see if that Green support holds. If it looks like the Tories are about to win, it could be soft as it has been in other elections.

Northern Saskatchewan is probably not all that surprising. Saskatchewan is feeling their oats (with oil) and as other posters have mentioned, they seem to be turning the corner and alligning with Alberta politics.

It was never a very solid Liberal riding. I think the the region shows some NDP fatigue. The controversy of an appointed candidate didn't help but it was probably a good decision. I think the fear is that David Orchard, if he won, would be the same type of maverick as Svend Robinson was therefore, a problematic MP.

All told, more bad news than good for Dion. Although he now has welcomed two competent MP's to Parliament, his hand-picked nominee (against party advice) lost in Saskatchewan and he came within a whisker of losing a safe Liberal seat in Vancouver.

I'm sure Tories will regard this as all bad news for the Liberals. It isn't a resounding success but it is success nonetheless. Dion has some people who will do well on the front benches. The Liberals have important momentum. It will be interesting to see what the polls show in the days ahead.

[capricorn]

I saw a beaming Dion arm in arm with Rae following his Toronto Centre win. I found it interesting and wondered why he opted to join Rae to hail victory and not Hall-Findlay. I may have missed it, but I don't believe Dion visited her campaign HQ afterward.

[oreodontist]

The results give everyone their own read into them.

The big loser was the NDP. They are getting squeezed out by the Liberals and the Greens. The other parties can all 'claim' some victory. What the Toronto results indicate is that the next parliament will, again, be a minority. The NDP will fade and the BQ may have the balance of power.

[M.Dancer]

The big loser was the NDP.

And in the end, that is the best thing for all.

[August1991]

Outside of the two landslides wins by contenders to Dion's job, the Liberals lost one riding they held and squeeked out a 1% victory in a riding that's been Liberal for years and was won by a huge margin in prior elections. Vancouver Quadra the kind of riding that has been automatic for the Liberals before now.

The powerful wins by two high-profile candidates don't do anything to endorse the theory that Dion is winning English Canada over.

Here are the Vancouver-Quadra results:

NDP-New Democratic Party Rebecca Coad 4,064 14.4

Green Party Dan Grice 3,792 13.5

Conservative Deborah Meredith 10,004 35.5

Liberal Joyce Murray 10,155 36.1

In percentage terms, the Tories (and Greens) did better and the Liberals did far worse. So, I guess I posted too early.

Your argument (or this columnist's argument) is that the Toronto votes were for the candidates (Rae/Hall-Findlay) and not the party/leader. The other byelections were more representative of English Canadian perceptions of Dion. There is merit to that argument. They say that a local candidate can add about 5% or 10% to the riding result in a general election.

High profile? I still think that Rae is a controversial candidate and Hall-Findlay is just another Liberal candidate. The Liberals did well in Toronto and the Greens/NDP did poorly. The Liberals are now the anti-Harper party there.

Vancouver seems to be a different story - but then it often is, Lotusland and all.

[Argus]

that they were Conservatives?

Just say it.

Conservatives are rich. NDP are poor. (Liberals are poor people who want to be rich. That's so 1980s. Now it doesn't work.)

Conservatives are rich.

Wasn't one of those two toronto Ridings, I think Bob Rae's, spoken of by the media as just about the richest riding in Canada?

[Argus]

I think that Harper fighting with Ontario is getting the backs up many people.

Only the dumb ones, but then, those are the only ones likely to vote Liberal.

McGuinty clearly picked a fight with the Harper Tories. That's an old, cheap story for the provinces, but it often works - with dumb people anyway.

Dion can breath a sign of relief. His best strategy is to run with the best team rather than the cult of personality that Chretien and Trudeau used.

Yes, well, as he's got no personality he'd have a difficult time creating a cult around it.

A strong team will only tend to make him look even worse by comparison. Thankfully, his "team" is made up of individuals who hate each other and are rivals for his power. They will be sniffing for blood, Dion's and each other's, in every meeting.

[M.Dancer]

Wasn't one of those two toronto Ridings, I think Bob Rae's, spoken of by the media as just about the richest riding in Canada?

Toronto Centre is indeed awash with blue blood and hard cash.

[capricorn]

A strong team will only tend to make him look even worse by comparison.

We got a great preview of things to come last night with Dion and Rae speaking on the same stage. Dion's mangling of the English language and uninspiring words contrasted deeply with Rae's clear comments.

[jdobbin]

Only the dumb ones, but then, those are the only ones likely to vote Liberal.

McGuinty clearly picked a fight with the Harper Tories. That's an old, cheap story for the provinces, but it often works - with dumb people anyway.

Clearly it worked with Alberta for years too, right?

Yes, well, as he's got no personality he'd have a difficult time creating a cult around it.

Seems to be a problem for Harper too and that is why he can't seem to get into majority territory in the polls.

A strong team will only tend to make him look even worse by comparison. Thankfully, his "team" is made up of individuals who hate each other and are rivals for his power. They will be sniffing for blood, Dion's and each other's, in every meeting.

That may be. We'll have to see if the caucus finally unites or whether it wants to fight a continued leadership election. My thinking is that they will gear up for the election now. Any leadership aspirations will have to wait till after the election and if it will be hard to fight for the leadership or for a leader if you don't have a seat in Parliament.

[jdobbin]

We got a great preview of things to come last night with Dion and Rae speaking on the same stage. Dion's mangling of the English language and uninspiring words contrasted deeply with Rae's clear comments.

Harper's monotone drone isn't exactly putting him in majority territory.