Clinton vs. Obama: Who will the Democrats choose in 2008?

[August1991]

The convention is at the end of August in Denver. To win, a nominee needs about 2000 of 4000 possible delegates. Who will they select?

Age, race and gender have become the dividing lines; nothing comes close to mattering as much.

The Obama Democratic Party is made up of younger voters (under 44), blacks, white men (to a more limited extent) and independents whose show of support accounted for his victories in states like Missouri. Their level of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama — their excitement about the possibility of an Obama White House — is palpable in their response to him, or in any conversation.

The Clinton Democratic Party is the party of women, older voters, Hispanics and also some white men. A Clinton rally may not have the energy of a rock concert the way an Obama rally does. Yet the older women who have embraced Mrs. Clinton as the culmination of years of hope and other core supporters are no less passionate in their intensity and devotion.

If there is a difference between these two parties, it is that Clinton Democratic voters tend to have a history of being more likely to vote, particularly compared with younger voters and, as was the case this week, black voters. That in part might account for the enthusiasm fall-off between the campaign trail and the voting booth that Mr. Obama has to deal with.

...

“He had a really fantastic week last week. It’s hard to think of a candidate having a better news media week than he had,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster who is not working for any candidate. “And her support among white women was really quite durable in the face of all that.”

NYT

At present, they are about equal in terms of delegates but Clinton I think has a lead among superdelegates and she also might get Michigan and Florida delegates seated. In addition, she'll likely lose the next several primaries but then win in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Edited February 7, 2008 by August1991

[maldon_road]

At present, they are about equal in terms of delegates but Clinton I think has a lead among superdelegates and she also might get Michigan and Florida delegates seated. In addition, she'll likely lose the next several primaries but then win in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Lets hope it does not come down to the "super-delegates", the party brass. Obama has the Big Mo, he's a better speaker and he can beat McCain which Clinton can't. He'll pretty well sweep the remaining primaries. Wait until Saturday. He'll win Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska and clean up on March 4th.

[M.Dancer]

Is it my imagination or does McCain look like Dwight and Huckabee look like Dick?

I think a McCain/Huckabee ticket would be unstoppable.

[maldon_road]

My balls are bigger than yours. That seems to be the message from Hilly to Obama.

Op-Ed Columnist

Darkness and Light

By MAUREEN DOWD

Hillary Clinton denounced Dick Cheney as Darth Vader, but she did not absorb the ultimate lesson of the destructive vice president:

Don’t become so paranoid that you let yourself be overwhelmed by a dark vision.

I think Hillary truly believes that she and Bill are the only ones tough enough to get to the White House. Jack Nicholson endorsed her as “the best man for the job,” and she told David Letterman that “in my White House, we’ll know who wears the pantsuits.” But her pitch is the color of pitch: Because she has absorbed all the hate and body blows from nasty Republicans over the years, she is the best person to absorb more hate and body blows from nasty Republicans....

http://tinyurl.com/348ueg

[maldon_road]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02...sidential-race/

Now that Romney's gone it's even more imperative for the Dems to nominate Obama.

[Carinthia]

I think a McCain/Huckabee ticket would be unstoppable.

Unstoppable until November when the public will will put a sudden stop to them, God willing.

One wants the war for another 100 years and the other wants it in the consitition that everybody in America should be ruled by religion. Good luck!

[M.Dancer]

Unstoppable until November when the public will will put a sudden stop to them, God willing.

One wants the war for another 100 years and the other wants it in the consitition that everybody in America should be ruled by religion. Good luck!

I did a quick check on their policies and couldn't find either of those planks.

Citation?

[Carinthia]

I did a quick check on their policies and couldn't find either of those planks.

Citation?

Both of them have been in the news for days. Easy for you to look up yourself.

[Carinthia]

I did a quick check on their policies and couldn't find either of those planks.

Citation?

McCain - war

http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/01/day_3_mccain_wa.php

Huckabee - constitution

[BubberMiley]

I did a quick check on their policies and couldn't find either of those planks.

Must have been an extremely quick check.

[bush_cheney2004]

Unstoppable until November when the public will will put a sudden stop to them, God willing.

One wants the war for another 100 years and the other wants it in the consitition that everybody in America should be ruled by religion. Good luck!

Does anybody else see the irony in this post? "God willing" indeed...and nothing to do with the public at all.

No matter....the Americans will choose their next president regardless of "God" or "luck".

[guyser]

No matter....the Americans will choose their next president regardless of "God" or "luck".

Well...this year anyhow...wink wink

[August1991]

McCain - war

http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/01/day_3_mccain_wa.php

McCain rightly said that the US has had troops in South Korea for 50 years and in Japan for 60 years. Neither the South Korean government nor the Japanese government nor the American people want to withdraw these troops.

McCain said that if necessary American troops will stay abroad for 100 years. IOW, McCain is not an isolationist and he understands that the US must be engaged in foreign affairs.

Huckabee - constitution

I'm sorry the clip is so short and there's no context so I don't know what Huckabee meant. There was something about God and the Constitution and I imagine that drives some Leftists into a tizzy. (BTW, in case you don't know, Huckabee won't be the Republican nominee in 2008. And not to be churlish but why is your post in a thread about who the Democrats will nominate?)

------

With Romney's withdrawal, the US political scene will turn to the Obama vs. Clinton race. It may well last into June or later.

Some might believe that this will be good for the Dems because it will keep their party and issues front and centre. I reckon that it will just show to potential indpendent voters that the Dems are disorganized amateurs.

[Carinthia]

Does anybody else see the irony in this post? "God willing" indeed...and nothing to do with the public at all.

I would only want God's help when I ask for it.

[BubberMiley]

Some might believe that this will be good for the Dems because it will keep their party and issues front and centre. I reckon that it will just show to potential indpendent voters that the Dems are disorganized amateurs.

However, comparing the cordial debate between Hillary and Obama last week to the bitter in-fighting still going on within the GOP, even after their candidate has essentially been chosen, the Dems have never in recent memory been so unified while the GOP has not been so divided.

[bush_cheney2004]

McCain rightly said that the US has had troops in South Korea for 50 years and in Japan for 60 years. Neither the South Korean government nor the Japanese government nor the American people want to withdraw these troops.

McCain said that if necessary American troops will stay abroad for 100 years. IOW, McCain is not an isolationist and he understands that the US must be engaged in foreign affairs....

...been in Germany for 60 years too! Why would McCain want to screw that up?

On top of that, Obama couldn't change it even if he wanted to.

Edited February 8, 2008 by bush_cheney2004

[Carinthia]

And not to be churlish but why is your post in a thread about who the Democrats will nominate?)

I was responding to a comment by M.Dancer that said "I think a McCain/Huckabee ticket would be unstoppable" on previous page.

Edited February 8, 2008 by Carinthia

[Lazarus]

My two bits (that's 27 cents American ).

Obama is too green and would be eaten alive if he actually gets the nod and wins in November, which is probably why the GOP hopes he gets the nod if they were to lose in November. It would be like having the Assistant Night Manager of a McDonalds outlet suddenly being promoted to CEO of the entire McDonalds Corporation. And I would wonder how much control and pressure the Kennedy clan would be able to exert on him, you can bet their endorsements didn't come free.

Hillery does have experience on her side. She was Bill's First Lady for eight years and was not a passive member of his team. She was very active in both the domestic and international political scene during those years. She knows how the game is played and who the players are. She is also a known commodity within the international playing field, where as Obama is not.

Best bet for the Dems, Hillery as POTUS with Obama getting some experience and seasoning as her VEEP.

As for the McCain/Huckabee ticket, I wonder if Romney hasn't cut the Huckster off at the pass today. Romney is currently in second place behind McCain has over 200 pledged delegates and has suspended his bid for the GOP nomination today. Wonder if he has cut a deal with McCain to be his running mate in return for the support of those delegates?

[bush_cheney2004]

...Obama is too green and would be eaten alive if he actually gets the nod and wins in November, which is probably why the GOP hopes he gets the nod if they were to lose in November. It would be like having the Assistant Night Manager of a McDonalds outlet suddenly being promoted to CEO of the entire McDonalds Corporation. And I would wonder how much control and pressure the Kennedy clan would be able to exert on him, you can bet their endorsements didn't come free.

Yes they did....anyone who has followed the Democrats very closely since the Clinton years would know how much bitter rivalry and resentment remains from the old school Democrats. It is not unlike the internecine warfare between Grits for Martin and Chretien.

Hillery does have experience on her side. She was Bill's First Lady for eight years and was not a passive member of his team. She was very active in both the domestic and international political scene during those years. She knows how the game is played and who the players are. She is also a known commodity within the international playing field, where as Obama is not.

No, that was Madeline Albright....Hillary couldn't even keep track of her husband.

Best bet for the Dems, Hillery as POTUS with Obama getting some experience and seasoning as her VEEP.

A losing ticket either way.

[Moonlight Graham]

Obama wins, i hope. Hillary and him have similar views on many issues, but his record on Iraq, his foreign policy views, and his push to get lobbyist pressures out of U.S. policy is refreshing. Hillary is a big change from Bush, but Obama is a big change from many of the negative things coming from the White House over the last 40+ years. Hillary and Bill are just too hob-knobby with the usual elite mucky-mucks for my taste. Obama isn't perfect, he's still a politician & chooses his words very carefully, but he's the best price of turd left in the tiolet at this point.

Republicans don't have a prayer. Listening to McCain's speech today at the CPAC, he sounds so much like Bush. Stay in Iraq! Defeat the terrorists! Keep the Bush tax-cuts! Gimme a break, the republicans are screwed. If the Dems, or heck even Nader, don't win this fall, the world is doomed.

[bush_cheney2004]

....Obama isn't perfect, he's still a politician & chooses his words very carefully, but he's the best price of turd left in the tiolet at this point.

You are equating Senator Obama to a "turd" ???

Republicans don't have a prayer. Listening to McCain's speech today at the CPAC, he sounds so much like Bush. Stay in Iraq! Defeat the terrorists! Keep the Bush tax-cuts! Gimme a break, the republicans are screwed. If the Dems, or heck even Nader, don't win this fall, the world is doomed.

..and this Dem's "turd" is the world's best hope? Then the world deserves to be doomed.

[Moonlight Graham]

You are equating Senator Obama to a "turd" ???

..and this Dem's "turd" is the world's best hope? Then the world deserves to be doomed.

99% of all politicians are turds, yes. Some smell better than others though.

[bush_cheney2004]

99% of all politicians are turds, yes. Some smell better than others though.

Hmmmm.....seems to me you haven't smelled the rest of the world. "Turds" would smell like roses.

[BubberMiley]

A losing ticket either way.

Wishful thinking. If McCain was on his way to victory, you'd think he'd be ahead in at least one of these polls of head-to-head match-ups between McCain and Obama:

Time (Feb 1-4)

Obama 48 (+7)

McCain 41

CNN/Opinion Research (Feb 1-3)

Obama 52 (+8)

McCain 44

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll (Jan 31-Feb 2)

Obama 45 (+2)

McCain 43

ABC/Washington Post (Jan 31-Feb 1)

Obama 49 (+3)

McCain 46

Fox News (Jan 30-31)

Obama 44 (+1)

McCain 43

Rasmussen (2/04-2/07)

Obama: 47 (+5)

McCain: 42

[bush_cheney2004]

Wishful thinking. If McCain was on his way to victory, you'd think he'd be ahead in at least one of these polls of head-to-head match-ups between McCain and Obama:

No I wouldn't....polls don't mean anything, except for the one on election day. But if it makes you feel better, a McCain win in November will not be as satisfying as President Bush's win in 2004. Some Canucks are still whining about that one.....while I still gloat.