Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

This is the best example ever that polls are worthless. If you think Albertans are going to vote for Dion and his commitment to meet 1990 levels at any expense, you're dreaming, as usual.

Don't think I ever said that Liberals were going to win in Alberta. I just said support for Tories had dropped there substantially.

One of the reasons that Conservatives have done well in national polling is because they poll extremely high in regions they've already won. The bigger concern Harper should have is that his party is still behind in Quebec and Ontario, regions he needs to win in the next election. He can't really win more seats in Alberta at present.

Edited January 12, 2008 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

Don't think I ever said that Liberals were going to win in Alberta. I just said support for Tories had dropped there substantially.

One of the reasons that Conservatives have done well in national polling is because they poll extremely high in regions they've already one. The bigger concern Harper should have is that his party is still behind in Quebec and Ontario, regions he needs to win in the next election. He can't really win more seats in Alberta at present.

Very interesting poll. This is a tough poll to read because of the limited information provided in the article. The print version of my local paper had a little more information for Alberta.

The Conservative drop in Alberta is HUGE but not really that meaningful. 66% to 43%.

Only two CPC MPs would have lost in Alberta in 2006 if they lost 25 points from their support and it all went to the second place finisher.

Laurie Hawn in Edmonton Centre and Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton Strathcona.

Hawn beat Anne Maclellan. She isn't running again, so he should have no problems.

Jaffer is in for a fight. The NDP have clearly targetted that riding. If he loses? The CPC is down to 27 out of 28 seats in Alberta.

It looks like Ontario is swinging to the right. The NDP could lose a net of four seats with the Liberals netting zero (picking up those four while losing four more conservative ridings to the CPC.)

Quebec looks pretty status quo.

An election with results close to those poll numbers would probably be a stronger minority for the Conservatives. More MPs for the Liberals. All at the expense of the NDP. Result the leaders of all three parties lose their jobs at some point after the election.

That's why I don't think we'll see an election before October '09.

[normanchateau]

Liberals take the lead for the first time in an Ipsos poll since the election. Still a statistical tie though.

Consistent with the trendline link provided yesterday by LastViking which predicts a Liberal majority in October, 2009.

[BubberMiley]

It's rather impossible to predict what would happen in October 2009 with any accuracy. Trend lines rarely continue uninterrupted.

[normanchateau]

It's rather impossible to predict what would happen in October 2009 with any accuracy. Trend lines rarely continue uninterrupted.

No argument there. The Liberals could merely win a minority.

[capricorn]

This is a tough poll to read because of the limited information provided in the article. The print version of my local paper had a little more information for Alberta.

I wonder if the 1000 polled in Alberta were random province-wide or concentrated in either Edmonton or Calgary. That might help examine the poll result for the Conservatives in that province.

[Oleg Bach]

I wonder if the 1000 polled in Alberta were random province-wide or concentrated in either Edmonton or Calgary. That might help examine the poll result for the Conservatives in that province.

Polls are conducted by companies. Companies are owned directly and indirectly by people who have an agenda. It might be best not to depend on them. Anyway ..George Bernard Shaw said - and from what I gather was a socialist and would know.."The majority is always wrong". If you translate that, it might mean that most people are followers and not to bright - and in effect for a politican to depend on polls, is a person with no leadership abilty...plus - it is mob rule...much like democracy..at the top end which is similar to a couple of wolves and a sheep voting on what is for dinner.

[Michael Bluth]

I wonder if the 1000 polled in Alberta were random province-wide or concentrated in either Edmonton or Calgary. That might help examine the poll result for the Conservatives in that province.

I would guess they polled randomly province-wide.

43% would *only* represent about a 13 point drop-off for the CPC in Edmonton.

[BubberMiley]

If those numbers hold up, it would suggest an environment for Reform II. It probably is just a blip though.

[Michael Bluth]

If those numbers hold up, it would suggest an environment for Reform II. It probably is just a blip though.

We are far, far from a position in which we would see the rise of another Reform-type party on the Federal scene.

The royalty structure was a provincial decision which might bite the PCs in the butt. These are by no means bad numbers federally. Still enough that it really only leaves one riding in the entire province as anything but an absolutely solid lock.

Some of the rednecks out here might gripe a bit with respect to Harper's approach with Quebec but Reform and the conservative split leading to 16 12 years of Liberal hegemony is too fresh in people's memory for anything like that. Besides Harper has done nothing as egregious as the CF-18 contract and won't.

[jbg]

Don't think I ever said that Liberals were going to win in Alberta. I just said support for Tories had dropped there substantially.

They could erode quite a bit in Alberta and since that seems to be more than matched elsewhere, his riding totals still rise. Dion is not going to win in Alberta.

[normanchateau]

If those numbers hold up, it would suggest an environment for Reform II. It probably is just a blip though.

I don't think there's even a slight chance that a party will form that's to the right of Stephen Harper's CPC. When Reform appeared on the scene, it captured the social conservatives, religious right and anyone else to the right of Brian Mulroney, a Quebec social moderate who was recently honoured for his record on environmentalism.

As long as Stephen Harper remains leader, those supporters aren't about to move right as they might have had a liberal won the CPC leadership contest. That's good news for CPC. The bad news for CPC is that as long as Stephen Harper remains leader, a majority government is unlikely and probably impossible. Most Canadians are either centrists or left-of-centre. Centrists had no problem voting for Brian Mulroney but they're not about to vote for a social conservative.

[Michael Bluth]

As long as Stephen Harper remains leader, those supporters aren't about to move right as they might have had a liberal won the CPC leadership contest. That's good news for CPC. The bad news for CPC is that as long as Stephen Harper remains leader, a majority government is unlikely and probably impossible. Most Canadians are either centrists or left-of-centre. Centrists had no problem voting for Brian Mulroney but they're not about to vote for a social conservative.

Just as most Canadians are either centrists or right-of-centre you have to play to the centre to win power in this country.

Harper has tried to advance no social conservative agenda while in office. The vote on SSM was a sop to socons that everyone knew would fail. Nothing else the government has done could be remotely construed as socially conservative.

Harper got enough centrists to win office. A few more and he's in with a majority.

[gc1765]

Only two CPC MPs would have lost in Alberta in 2006 if they lost 25 points from their support and it all went to the second place finisher.

Laurie Hawn in Edmonton Centre and Rahim Jaffer in Edmonton Strathcona.

Either your math is off, or mine is...because I count at least 11 seats in Alberta that the CPC would lose if they lost 23 points and it all went to the second place finisher...

[M.Dancer]

In other words, the price for having a majority government is to have the will of the few imposed on the many.

This is democracy? This is a GOOD thing?

I think you mean a minority, but even so. take the number of seats and go from there....statements regarding % 's of p[opular vote are equally irrelevant for minority as they are for majority gov'ts, seeing that we haven't had a majority gov't that had a majority of the popular vote in years and years...

[normanchateau]

Harper has tried to advance no social conservative agenda while in office. The vote on SSM was a sop to socons that everyone knew would fail. Nothing else the government has done could be remotely construed as socially conservative.

That depends on how you define "social conservative agenda." By my definition, legislation imposing a mandatory six month jail term for growing as little as one marijuana plant fits that agenda. Judges currently have discretion in whether they impose jail sentences for possession of a single marijuana plant. The legislation unveiled by the Harper government in November 2007 would impose a mandatory sentence and remove judicial discretion:

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/st...31-3411c2619f58

Does Harper seriously believe that adopting the US approach to marijuana prohibition will bring those Canadian centrists on side? If so, he is out of touch with reality.

[Michael Bluth]

Either your math is off, or mine is...because I count at least 11 seats in Alberta that the CPC would lose if they lost 23 points and it all went to the second place finisher...

I do apologize. I eyeballed them and didn't do the math.

The eleven ridings are all in Edmonton and Calgary.

The nine I missed the CPC would be losing those ridings in very tight races. *If* all those votes went to the second place party, basically the Liberals. I'm guessing that wasn't the case in that poll.

The Liberals polling in the high 30s in Alberta would be HUGE news.

I'm sure the results are a little bit of a cause of concern for the CPC but I doubt all that support went to the Liberals except for the two ridings where the NDP came in second in '06.

[normanchateau]

The eleven ridings are all in Edmonton and Calgary.

Must be fewer social conservatives in those ridings than elsewhere in Alberta.

[Michael Bluth]

Must be fewer social conservatives in those ridings than elsewhere in Alberta.

As is the case in every province. The cites are less socially conservative than are the rural areas.

[normanchateau]

The cites are less socially conservative than are the rural areas.

So do you or do you not acknowledge that the Harper government's legislation imposing mandatory six month jail sentences for possession of a single marijuana plant might be construed as socially conservative?

[Michael Bluth]

So do you or do you not acknowledge that the Harper government's legislation imposing mandatory six month jail sentences for possession of a single marijuana plant might be construed as socially conservative?

I don't believe that drug policy is solely related to a person's social views.

IMO social policy encompasses issues such as marriage, abortion, age of consent etc.

Drug policy has effects on public safety, health, and crime.

I think anybody who construes drug policy as reflective of a party's social platform is framing the issue in a simplistic manner in order to advance their personal agenda.

btw, what does your question have to do with rural areas being more socially conservative than urban ones?

Edited January 14, 2008 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Strategic Counsel shows Dion's support plummets over the year.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Over the past year, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's approval rating has plummeted across Canada, according to a new Strategic Counsel poll.

The survey, conducted between Jan. 10-13 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows that Dion is the only national party leader to show a significant drop in support.

When respondents were asked if they found the leaders favourable, less than half said they had a good impression of Dion (difference between a Jan. 11-14, 2007 poll in brackets):

* Stephen Harper, Conservatives: 58 per cent (+4)

* Elizabeth May, Green Party: 56 per cent (-2)

* Jack Layton, NDP: 55 per cent (-4)

* Stephane Dion, Liberals: 39 per cent (-20)

"He had a tough year and we saw that in the media coverage, and what we're seeing is that the public's gotten to that," the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo told CTV.ca Monday.

"It has to be an issue of concern for him that his negatives are as high as they are, particulary if you look at it more deeply. He's got a higher percentage of people saying he's 'very unfavourable' than Stephen Harper, which is surprising, given that he hasn't been in that government hot seat -- Mr. Harper has."

[Michael Bluth]

There are some other very interesting things in that poll.

Conservatives: 36 per cent (+4)

Liberals: 30 per cent (+1)

NDP: 14 per cent (-2)

Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (+1)

Greens: 10 per cent (-3)

When asked about the preferred election date...

According to the survey, roughly two in three Canadians want to wait until October (difference between Jan. 10-13, 2007 poll in brackets):

October 2009: 66 per cent (+5)

Second half of 2008: 15 per cent (same)

First half of 2008: 10 per cent (-1)

Immediately: 3 per cent (-4)

[BubberMiley]

There are some other very interesting things in that poll.

I find it interesting that there are only shrieks that the messenger is biased when the poll results are less favourable for the CPC.

[M.Dancer]

Canadians get to know Dion, Flee in fear.....

When respondents were asked if they found the leaders favourable, less than half said they had a good impression of Dion (difference between a Jan. 11-14, 2007 poll in brackets):

Stephen Harper, Conservatives: 58 per cent (+4)

Elizabeth May, Green Party: 56 per cent (-2)

Jack Layton, NDP: 55 per cent (-4)

Stephane Dion, Liberals: 39 per cent (-20)

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories