Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

New Crop poll for Quebec.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The Bloc, which has been the province's dominant party, is down to 30 per cent support. The Tories are nipping at the sovereigntist party's heels with 29 per cent. The Liberals have only 20 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent.

"But when you drill down inside those numbers, they're awful for (Liberal Leader Stephane) Dion," McDonald said.

For francophones, which is about 85 per cent of Quebec votes, it breaks down this way:

* Bloc: 35 per cent

* Tories: 30 per cent

* Liberals, NDP: Tied at 15 per cent

I've always thought that Dion's link to the Clarity Act would hurt him in Quebec. Quebecers of every stripe for the most part still haven't forgotten this.

I don't see it changing any time soon.

[Keepitsimple]

New Crop poll for Quebec.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

I've always thought that Dion's link to the Clarity Act would hurt him in Quebec. Quebecers of every stripe for the most part still haven't forgotten this.

I don't see it changing any time soon.

It goes beyond the Clarity Act. Quebecers don't like him because he is a proponent of Trudeauist/Chretien big central government who intrude in areas of Provincial juristiction - that's what drives Quebecers mad and has also grated on the Western Provinces. Duceppe calls it a "Father Knows Best" attitude. Dion has now appointed Gerrard Kennedy as Intergovernmental Affairs - albeit he will do it from outside Parliament. Kennedy follows the same drummer. Once again, Dion has selected the wrong man for the job.

[jbg]

Once again, Dion has selected the wrong man for the job.

What a miraculously good leader that Dion is.

[jdobbin]

It goes beyond the Clarity Act. Quebecers don't like him because he is a proponent of Trudeauist/Chretien big central government who intrude in areas of Provincial juristiction - that's what drives Quebecers mad and has also grated on the Western Provinces. Duceppe calls it a "Father Knows Best" attitude. Dion has now appointed Gerrard Kennedy as Intergovernmental Affairs - albeit he will do it from outside Parliament. Kennedy follows the same drummer. Once again, Dion has selected the wrong man for the job.

The Clarity Act is what has been cited by Quebecers most often as something they dislike Dion for. The Leger poll several months ago showed this was a sticking issue. I thought so at the time he announced he was running. Many Liberals thought that only someone outside of Quebec like Ignatieff or Rae would be able to distance the the party from both the Clarity Act and sponsorship.

I think Dion might have had a chance in Quebec but the poor byelection results and subsequent poor performance in Quebec has reached a critical point.

As far as this contention that Dion if a proponent of big central government, it seems to me that it is Harper who is spending like a drunken sailor in Quebec.

[Keepitsimple]

The Clarity Act is what has been cited by Quebecers most often as something they dislike Dion for. The Leger poll several months ago showed this was a sticking issue. I thought so at the time he announced he was running. Many Liberals thought that only someone outside of Quebec like Ignatieff or Rae would be able to distance the the party from both the Clarity Act and sponsorship.

I think Dion might have had a chance in Quebec but the poor byelection results and subsequent poor performance in Quebec has reached a critical point.

As far as this contention that Dion if a proponent of big central government, it seems to me that it is Harper who is spending like a drunken sailor in Quebec.

Dobbin, the Clarity Act is a convenient anchor for the media to hang around Dion's neck but the elephant in the room continues to be the heavy-handed brand of centralized Liberal politics. Quebec is not the only province who abhors this sanctimonious approach. There was an under-reported element of BC dis-satisfaction with the way Confederation was working under the Liberals. Polls showed a significant number saying it was time to examine separation. Alberta of course, authored the Firewall approach. Newfoundland removed the Canadian flag. Back to Dion - he is seen as a continuation of the same old Liberal bag of tricks - keep the money in Ottawa and create "shared programs" in areas of Provincial Juristiction and then dole out the money as and when they see fit. The Clarity Act is almost a red herring because Harper actually had more to do with it than Dion. Harper introduce Bill C341 in 1996 (the Quebec Contingency Act) but Chretien's Liberals did not allow it to pass. The subsequent Clarity Act was very similar in content. By your reasoning, Harper should also be held "responsible"......and it seems he is not.

Edited April 1, 2008 by Keepitsimple

[August1991]

The Clarity Act is what has been cited by Quebecers most often as something they dislike Dion for. The Leger poll several months ago showed this was a sticking issue. I thought so at the time he announced he was running. Many Liberals thought that only someone outside of Quebec like Ignatieff or Rae would be able to distance the the party from both the Clarity Act and sponsorship.

I have to agree with KISS above.

In Quebec federal Liberal circles, Dion is perceived as the follower of Chretien and Ignatieff as following Martin. The dispute is partly about personality but it's also about "central control".

The Toronto media seems concerned about the demise of the federal Liberal Party in Quebec, its low standings in general and the unpopularity of Dion. It seems to me however that the real story is that the Conservatives are taking the place of the BQ outside of Montreal.

As far as this contention that Dion if a proponent of big central government, it seems to me that it is Harper who is spending like a drunken sailor in Quebec.

Ah yes, Quebec is the "gimme, gimme" province. As if no one else in Canada has their hand outstretched. Edited April 1, 2008 by August1991

[jbg]

Dobbin, the Clarity Act is a convenient anchor for the media to hang around Dion's neck but the elephant in the room continues to be the heavy-handed brand of centralized Liberal politics. Quebec is not the only province who abhors this sanctimonious approach. There was an under-reported element of BC dis-satisfaction with the way Confederation was working under the Liberals. Polls showed a significant number saying it was time to examine separation. Alberta of course, authored the Firewall approach. Newfoundland removed the Canadian flag. Back to Dion - he is seen as a continuation of the same old Liberal bag of tricks - keep the money in Ottawa and create "shared programs" in areas of Provincial Juristiction and then dole out the money as and when they see fit.

Great analysis. It has echos in our country, though not necessarily along partisan lines. While the Democrats have trespassed state jurisdictions, so have the Republicans with:

1. In 1973-4 the National Maximum Speed Limit of 55 mph (around 90 kms); and
   
2. In 1984-6 (not sure of exact year) the national 21 year old minimum drinking age.
   

Both were accomplished via the threat to withhold Federal highway funds if the States did not enact their own implementing legislation. The highway funds are a signficant club since the Feds collect $0.13 per gallon for every gallon of fuel sold in the US.

Initially, the Feds didn’t care if the States enforced the 55 mph limit (recognizing its impracticality on empty Interstates in places like Montana, Wyoming and Nevada) but went nuts when Nevada, in a purely symbolic protest posted a 70 mph limit on a five-mile stretch of interstate back in 1978. The interesting thing is that when the Feds finally did try to force States to enforce those limits by withholding Federal highway funds¹, the uproar forced the Feds first to allow speed limits of 65 mph in so-called “rural” areas, and eventually to scrap the NMSL entirely.

Thus, Federal trespass into provincial/state areas of concern is not unique to Canada under the LPOC.

¹There is some suspicion that the Reagan administration clamped down on "enforcement" in order to generate a furious response and motivate Congress to lift the NMSL, which was already, in practice, an unenforced law and a dead letter.

[jdobbin]

In Quebec federal Liberal circles, Dion is perceived as the follower of Chretien and Ignatieff as following Martin. The dispute is partly about personality but it's also about "central control".

I never thought Dion and Chretien were that close, to be honest. As for Ignatieff, I didn't see him following any particular person. I certainly never thought of him as a Martin camp person.

The Toronto media seems concerned about the demise of the federal Liberal Party in Quebec, its low standings in general and the unpopularity of Dion. It seems to me however that the real story is that the Conservatives are taking the place of the BQ outside of Montreal.

Really? Because the CROP poll is the only poll so far that I have seen that gives that impression. It seems to me that a few polls have shown BQ support stabilizing. Last Leger poll I saw had them recovering. Have you seen a breakdown of the CROP poll?

Ah yes, Quebec is the "gimme, gimme" province. As if no one else in Canada has their hand outstretched.

I never said "gimme." If anything, it is "taking." Quebec ridings where Tories are elected are reaping the benefits of Harper's largesses. You are getting defensive about Quebec's receiving. What you should be offended about is the spending. You yourself have said Harper is spending too much. You often counter that Dion would spend more. How you come to that conclusion is beyond me. The Liberals spent profusely in Chretien's latter years and in Martin's short time but as was shown here in a previous link, it doesn't come close to Harper's spending.

Edited April 1, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Angus Reid.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/407824

The Conservatives enjoy the support of 36 per cent of Canadians – roughly the same level as the 2006 election – but the Liberals have dropped to 26 per cent, down two percentage points in the last month and four percentage points from the 2006 vote, according to the poll.

The New Democrats are at 18 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 9 per cent and the Green party, which enjoyed a strong showing in the March 17 by-elections, is at 9 per cent, double its support in the 2006 federal election.

The news is grim for Dion, who is suffering through his worst month since taking the helm of the Liberal party in December 2006. His approval rating stands at 11 per cent, down 6 points since February.

And for the first time, more than half of Canadians – 57 per cent – disapprove of his performance, the numbers show.

Dion now seems most responsible for the Liberals not actually being ahead of the Tories nationally. What this poll shows is that there is no great love of Harper or the Conservative brand that will push them into majority territory. They will coast to a minority or a majority if Dion continues a downward trend.

It is doubtful that Quebecers or Quebec Liberals will change their views to any great extent before an election. Dion is now the central issue.

Edited April 1, 2008 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

It is doubtful that Quebecers or Quebec Liberals will change their views to any great extent before an election. Dion is now the central issue.

Dion may not have done himself a favour by taking Coderre out as the defence critic and putting him as Heritage and Francophone Affairs critic. By all accounts Coderre is a tireless worker an is well liked in Quebec. Quebec Liberals may see this as lessening their standing in caucus.

[August1991]

It is doubtful that Quebecers or Quebec Liberals will change their views to any great extent before an election. Dion is now the central issue.

The problem of the Liberals in Quebec goes beyond Dion but that's only the start of it.

The advance of the Conservatives over the BQ is more relevant. The BQ is going through an existential crisis and the Conservatives are taking up the pieces.

----

For some 50 years or more, perhaps since Laurier, the federal Liberal existed to unite the divide between English and French Canada. The Liberal Party receieved many seats in Ontario on the simple basis that it was the only truly "national" party.

Only people in the Toronto media speak of "brands" and politics. There is a realignment going on in Canadian federal politics and it seems to me that only people outside of Toronto are aware of it.

[jdobbin]

Dion may not have done himself a favour by taking Coderre out as the defence critic and putting him as Heritage and Francophone Affairs critic. By all accounts Coderre is a tireless worker an is well liked in Quebec. Quebec Liberals may see this as lessening their standing in caucus.

Is he well liked in Quebec? He might be well liked by Quebec Liberal party members but I don't know that I have ever seen Codere's personal popularity tested.

In any event, if Dion hopes to stare down Quebec Liberals, it will have to start somewhere. If they decide to fight back, they are still at Dion's mercy. There is no mechanism to force a sitting leader to resign.

Many Liberal MPs now want to go an election come what may. Their own polls show a Tory majority. I have no idea how they come to those figures but it might be on a riding by riding basis.

[jdobbin]

The problem of the Liberals in Quebec goes beyond Dion but that's only the start of it.

The advance of the Conservatives over the BQ is more relevant. The BQ is going through an existential crisis and the Conservatives are taking up the pieces.

----

For some 50 years or more, perhaps since Laurier, the federal Liberal existed to unite the divide between English and French Canada. The Liberal Party receieved many seats in Ontario on the simple basis that it was the only truly "national" party.

Only people in the Toronto media speak of "brands" and politics. There is a realignment going on in Canadian federal politics and it seems to me that only people outside of Toronto are aware of it.

The realignment you speak of remains to be seen. Harper's own popularity is keeping his party in the the same spot they were when they won the election. It doesn't bode well when all it seems to take for the Liberals to soar past the Tories is a leadership change.

People do not like Harper very much. They seem to like him even less the more they get to know him. He must thank God for Dion every day but it must give him the willies if they choose anyone else before an election call.

You'll have to show me more about the change for the BQ. I didn't see it in the last Leger poll and don't know enough about the CROP breakdown on numbers. Do you have some number citations or newspaper articles on it? Or is just your gut instinct?

It seems to me that when I watching Quebec election returns from Quebec that they talked about the strength of the Liberal "brand" in getting Charest elected. Maybe the reporters there came from Toronto.

Edited April 1, 2008 by jdobbin

[capricorn]

Is he well liked in Quebec? He might be well liked by Quebec Liberal party members but I don't know that I have ever seen Codere's personal popularity tested.

I have heard Jean Lapierre say that Coderre is like by many in Quebec. I have never read any real criticism of Coderre in the french press.

Here's some trivia re facebook. As of March 23rd:

Coderre had 2,600 fans.

Dion had 10,000 fans.

Harper had 8,000 fans.

Layton had 9,500 fans.

Duceppe had 500 fans.

I don't go to facebook. I got those numbers off a french article.

[Alta4ever]

I have heard Jean Lapierre say that Coderre is like by many in Quebec. I have never read any real criticism of Coderre in the french press.

Here's some trivia re facebook. As of March 23rd:

Coderre had 2,600 fans.

Dion had 10,000 fans.

Harper had 8,000 fans.

Layton had 9,500 fans.

Duceppe had 500 fans.

I don't go to facebook. I got those numbers off a french article.

Facebook is no great indication of anything, the majority of people who use it are of one or two demorgraphics and those are some of the youngest of our society, and lets look at their voting habits.

[jdobbin]

I have heard Jean Lapierre say that Coderre is like by many in Quebec. I have never read any real criticism of Coderre in the french press.

I still don't see any actual polling data. All I know is that Coderre briefly thought about running for the leadership but didn't find any support to do so.

[jdobbin]

Facebook is no great indication of anything, the majority of people who use it are of one or two demorgraphics and those are some of the youngest of our society, and lets look at their voting habits.

Facebook has a very large chunk of adult, voting population.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/07/06/faceb...ographic-shift/

[August1991]

You'll have to show me more about the change for the BQ. I didn't see it in the last Leger poll and don't know enough about the CROP breakdown on numbers. Do you have some number citations or newspaper articles on it? Or is just your gut instinct?

I posted them in the thread about the BQ.

In the Quebec City region, the CPC leads the BQ 41% to 25%. In other regions outside of Montreal, the CPC leads the BQ 34% to 30%. Link

On my French forum and in the press in Quebec, there has been much discussion of the raison d'être of the BQ.

I have heard Jean Lapierre say that Coderre is like by many in Quebec. I have never read any real criticism of Coderre in the french press.

Denis Coderre is a Liberal hack. He was up to his ears in the sponsorship scandal.

His riding is in an area known as Little Italy (Montreal North) where there is no way that the BQ will win. Knowing Coderre, he may have asked for this demission so that he can distance himself from Dion.

[M.Dancer]

His riding is in an area known as Little Italy (Montreal North) where there is no way that the BQ will win. Knowing Coderre, he may have asked for this demission so that he can distance himself from Dion.

I'm from Montreal North (Nord).

It was one of the first ridings to vote PQ and always solidly votes Liberal. Although the days of it being little Italy are past. Now it is more known for being a little Haiti. Still, it has a rather stalwart anglo pop..which is unusual for east end Montreal. It was also once a city ruled by a Ryan....

[jdobbin]

I posted them in the thread about the BQ.

In the Quebec City region, the CPC leads the BQ 41% to 25%. In other regions outside of Montreal, the CPC leads the BQ 34% to 30%. Link

On my French forum and in the press in Quebec, there has been much discussion of the raison d'être of the BQ.

What do the Leger polls show? I thought it wasn't as cut and dried in their last poll.

I think most people know better than to underestimate the BQ.

[jbg]

The realignment you speak of remains to be seen. Harper's own popularity is keeping his party in the the same spot they were when they won the election. It doesn't bode well when all it seems to take for the Liberals to soar past the Tories is a leadership change.

Ever the LPOC cheerleader.

[capricorn]

Facebook is no great indication of anything,

That's why I don't partake with that site. I thought the Liberals around here would get a little boost at seeing Dion with more fans than Harper. I mean, they're having a pretty bad time lately, aren't they?

[capricorn]

Denis Coderre is a Liberal hack. He was up to his ears in the sponsorship scandal.

That explains why he has friends in high places.

His riding is in an area known as Little Italy (Montreal North) where there is no way that the BQ will win. Knowing Coderre, he may have asked for this demission so that he can distance himself from Dion.

I can't see Coderre asking to be demoted unless of course he wanted things among Quebec's top Liberals to deteriorate further in order to harm Dion.

[August1991]

What do the Leger polls show? I thought it wasn't as cut and dried in their last poll.

I think most people know better than to underestimate the BQ.

The recent internal outbursts within both the BQ and PLC reflect this recent poll. In fact though, the problem is greater than the poll and popular opinion. The PLC (Q) has serious organizational problems and infighting. (I mean, in case you forgot, they lost Outremont... ) The BQ doesn't know what to do anymore, particularly since Marois dropped the referendum idea.

The BQ has turned into a Plateau-Mont Royal party and it doesn't know how to represent the rest of Quebec.

It was one of the first ridings to vote PQ and always solidly votes Liberal. Although the days of it being little Italy are past. Now it is more known for being a little Haiti. Still, it has a rather stalwart anglo pop..which is unusual for east end Montreal. It was also once a city ruled by a Ryan....

I could be wrong but I think that Gerald Godin was elected there.

It has about 30% mother tongue allophone which means largely Italian origin. Here are the stats. I suppose there are Haitians there too. It's on the edge of St. Leonard.

These voters are diehard federalists and they would not vote for Harper nor the NDP. Coderre won with a comfortable majority in 2006.

[jdobbin]

The recent internal outbursts within both the BQ and PLC reflect this recent poll. In fact though, the problem is greater than the poll and popular opinion. The PLC (Q) has serious organizational problems and infighting. (I mean, in case you forgot, they lost Outremont... ) The BQ doesn't know what to do anymore, particularly since Marois dropped the referendum idea.

The BQ has turned into a Plateau-Mont Royal party and it doesn't know how to represent the rest of Quebec.

Given what you are saying, you seem to think that the Tories will win the majority of the seats in Quebec.