Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

This is ridiculous. Canadians are actually buying this nonsense that Steve has cooked up? Willing to support a PM who breaks the law?

Unfortunately, there is no mainstream alternative available at the moment. I think that I will probably have to vote Conservative in this election, not that they would lose in my riding anyway. The Liberals under Stephane Dion have moved too close to the NDP, and that's not where the majority of Canadians are at. That includes me. I cannot support the party that I am a card carrying member of in this election.

Edited September 4, 2008 by Smallc

[Wild Bill]

Although still in minority territory, I am now predicting that based on the trend that the Tories will win a massive majority.

Jdobbin, if I ever forget my manners again and accuse you of a lack of objectivity, would you please remind me of your post?

To be able to see a trend so clearly that goes against your own preferences adds great value to your observations on this board.

There are a few others who would do well to follow your example.

[M.Dancer]

I'll go on the line now...CBC poll gives theconservatives a commanding lead in ontario and making inroads in the GTA.....

Dion will not be leader in January and Harper will be.

Outside odds layton working infomercials in May ...

Edited September 5, 2008 by M.Dancer

[jdobbin]

Jdobbin, if I ever forget my manners again and accuse you of a lack of objectivity, would you please remind me of your post?

To be able to see a trend so clearly that goes against your own preferences adds great value to your observations on this board.

There are a few others who would do well to follow your example.

The Liberals best chance was to gain some momentum in the by-elections and they always do better when Parliament is in session.

There is still a lack of cohesiveness in Liberal ranks and they just haven't been able to get their fundraising together. Rae has been best at the money game, followed by Ignatieff. Dion has struggled throughout.

The trend I mention will show itself in the first week. If the Liberals perform better than the low expectations of them, they will have a hope. If they stumble, they may suffer a defeat that leaves them so damaged that they cease to be a national force for some time, perhaps forever.

[jdobbin]

Leger poll results.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

According to the poll, conducted between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3, 30 per cent of Quebeckers would vote for the Conservatives, another 30 per cent would vote Bloc Québécois, 23 per cent for the Liberals, 11 per cent for the NDP and 5 per cent for the Green Party.

Only Montreal shows any hope for the Liberals.

The Tories could put the BQ out of the picture.

[blueblood]

From what your saying its that the tories could almost over 200 seats.

Layton could still be leader if the Liberals collapse like Dobbin is saying. I'm wondering if dobbin got some kind of a bad email or something. This is really good news if your an NDP supporter. What was nice with the Liberals and tories was if you got sick of one, you could vote the other in and the country wouldn't have changed that much. With the NDP, it's if your sick of the tories and vote the NDP in, who knows what you'll get. I'd rather have the devil I know than the devil I don't.

[Smallc]

We'll have to wait and see what happens I think. It could be very bad to the Liberals, but maybe not as bad as some think. I'm hoping they lose, but I'm not hoping that they get crushed.

[jdobbin]

From what your saying its that the tories could almost over 200 seats.

If the defeat is massive enough, it could be a lot more than that.

Layton could still be leader if the Liberals collapse like Dobbin is saying. I'm wondering if dobbin got some kind of a bad email or something. This is really good news if your an NDP supporter. What was nice with the Liberals and tories was if you got sick of one, you could vote the other in and the country wouldn't have changed that much. With the NDP, it's if your sick of the tories and vote the NDP in, who knows what you'll get. I'd rather have the devil I know than the devil I don't.

Nope, haven't heard a thing from anyone. In the absence of any momentum for the Liberals such as the by-elections or a session of Parliament and a record of not one but two poor election campaigns, my feeling is the lack of strong leader will result in an incredible defeat.

It will come down to the first week to see how effective the Liberals will be.

[margrace]

Catastrophe for us all, McCain will win in the US and Harper will have a majority government in Canada. The thirtys all over again. Mass unemployment, mass starvation and two government leaders who do not give a darn except that they contol everything. These two men are no different, basically, from the Taliban in their contempt for us all.

[White Doors]

Catastrophe for us all, McCain will win in the US and Harper will have a majority government in Canada. The thirtys all over again. Mass unemployment, mass starvation and two government leaders who do not give a darn except that they contol everything. These two men are no different, basically, from the Taliban in their contempt for us all.

[Wild Bill]

If the defeat is massive enough, it could be a lot more than that.

Nope, haven't heard a thing from anyone. In the absence of any momentum for the Liberals such as the by-elections or a session of Parliament and a record of not one but two poor election campaigns, my feeling is the lack of strong leader will result in an incredible defeat.

It will come down to the first week to see how effective the Liberals will be.

You may be right. I'm still having trouble clearly reading this one. Not everything is showing and there are too many variables. Like those math problems we used to get in school, where it seemed you had 3 variables but 4 unknowns!

Destroy the Liberals? Somehow, I doubt it. I remember when Mulroney swept in with the two greatest majorities ever. Yet at the end of his term the Liberals came back and the Tories were reduced to TWO seats!

No, Dion may go down in flames but his party could rise like a phoenix next election. It all depends on who's running the show at the time. They could have some changes, like a merger with the Greens. Of course, at present the Greens are nowhere near as powerful as Reform/Allliance was at the time of their merger with the PC's but there's a trend there worth following.

Besides, the writ hasn't even been dropped! Lots of time for one leader or the other to blow it with a major gaffe!

Since Mulroney's time we have seen some wild swings in seats, both provincially and federally. We Canadians seem to be yoyoing from one choice to another. This implies to me that NONE of the parties are offering a clear choice to voters! People are tossing one choice out but they are not madly in love with the alternatives.

I suspect this might have something to do with the "adman" approach of the party handlers. Try to stay in the middle. Don't offend any one group. Go for the common denominator. Be beige, beige and beige in your colours with once in a while showing a quick flash of tan to make the claim you're actually unique!

Do this long enough and people start to feel that they don't HAVE much in the way of real choices! So they lose respect for a party's brand. It's normal for older voters to gain a little cynicism and be more realistic about political choices but perhaps it's happening at an earlier and earlier age.

This may well prove to be a positive thing, unless you belong to one of the parties that gets clobbered, of course! Still, politicians grow the toughest hides of us all. It's Darwinian. If they want to survive they will have to change in a fashion that will please more voters.

Sometimes we forget that the parties are only our representatives. It doesn't matter what happens to them. It only matters what happens to US! The parties are there to serve the people, not the people to serve the parties.

The past few decades have shown the greatest social and technical changes in man's history. So many things that were around for eons are no more. Either they morphed into something unrecognizable today or they simply totally disappeared. Part of the price for more equal rights has been the membership of some churches, churches that have been around for centuries. It may seem a shame but if an institution doesn't evolve with the people then Darwin rules, if you'll pardon the mixed metaphor!

So why should a political party or structure be immune to the need to change? The NDP finally shows some signs of evolving. Their own Laxer report in the 80's warned them they were becoming irrelevant dinosaurs. They refused to listen and look what the next few decades brought them! Perhaps if they change some more they would be pleasantly surprised.

Sometimes when I look at the Liberals I see myself in the 70's, full of a lot of idealism and "hippy" ideas that were often impractical or even unworkable. Big heart but no life experience. As a people we changed but the Liberals in some ways stayed in a time warp. Perhaps now they're paying the price for all those years of having a split opposition and an easy time staying in power. It meant that they didn't really have to change with the people. Darwin showed how a species with no need to change simply doesn't, except for the odd mutation every few hundred or thousand years.

The Liberals have simply had a quick change in their environment that they didn't see coming.

So save your tears! It's not important what name is in power, only how that name serves Canada and its people!

"Ask not what you can do for your party! Ask what your party can do for the people!"

I have to stop before I start singing "The sun will come out tomorrow, tomorrow!"

[jdobbin]

You may be right. I'm still having trouble clearly reading this one. Not everything is showing and there are too many variables. Like those math problems we used to get in school, where it seemed you had 3 variables but 4 unknowns!

Destroy the Liberals? Somehow, I doubt it. I remember when Mulroney swept in with the two greatest majorities ever. Yet at the end of his term the Liberals came back and the Tories were reduced to TWO seats!

I've seen it on too many provincial fronts to completely discount it. We are beginning to see it in Nova Scotia now.

No, Dion may go down in flames but his party could rise like a phoenix next election. It all depends on who's running the show at the time. They could have some changes, like a merger with the Greens. Of course, at present the Greens are nowhere near as powerful as Reform/Allliance was at the time of their merger with the PC's but there's a trend there worth following.

I still think the trend has shown where we are seeing more and more evidence that the Liberals are in trouble on the provincial and federal front. In B.C. and Quebec, the Liberal name lives on as a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives. In the rest of the three western provinces, we see the Liberals decimated. Ontario and New Brunswick have the only two viable Liberal parties in government. In Newfoundland, the Liberals are devastated.

Besides, the writ hasn't even been dropped! Lots of time for one leader or the other to blow it with a major gaffe!

Anything is possible including another raid on Tory headquarters but it seems unlikely.

If the Liberals perform above very low expectations, they might salvage something but it doesn't look good. The key numbers are all negative.

Since Mulroney's time we have seen some wild swings in seats, both provincially and federally. We Canadians seem to be yoyoing from one choice to another. This implies to me that NONE of the parties are offering a clear choice to voters! People are tossing one choice out but they are not madly in love with the alternatives.

The PCs were killed by Mulroney's time. There are very few Red Tories or progressives left in the Conservative party now. For all intents, the PCs were mortally wounded, limped along and eventually were consumed by another party.

The Liberals have simply had a quick change in their environment that they didn't see coming.

So save your tears! It's not important what name is in power, only how that name serves Canada and its people!

"Ask not what you can do for your party! Ask what your party can do for the people!"

I have to stop before I start singing "The sun will come out tomorrow, tomorrow!"

I think you have more faith in things than I do at the moment.

I still don't see a place for me in the NDP or the Conservative party. There is still a rump of a party where I live. If even that failed to exist, I'd likely just drop out of the political process altogether.

[Keepitsimple]

I still don't see a place for me in the NDP or the Conservative party. There is still a rump of a party where I live. If even that failed to exist, I'd likely just drop out of the political process altogether.

Let's hope that doesn't happen. I've always respected your opinions, your loyalty and your perseverence. Canada always needs passionate people like you Dobbin to reflect it's diverse views. If the Tories do manage to get a majority and continue to cultivate a centrist approach, perhaps you could consider joining as a center/left influence. If the Tories truly embrace grass roots, I'm sure you could make a valuable contribution. It's in their best interest to over time, win over rational people like yourself. Having said this, it's never over till it's over. It's often said that "events" often overtake elections. Anything can happen.

[M.Dancer]

Although still in minority territory, I am now predicting that based on the trend that the Tories will win a massive majority.

Knock me over with a feather....

[M.Dancer]

Catastrophe for us all, McCain will win in the US and Harper will have a majority government in Canada. The thirtys all over again. Mass unemployment, mass starvation and two government leaders who do not give a darn except that they contol everything. These two men are no different, basically, from the Taliban in their contempt for us all.

Put on your Burka....

[M.Dancer]

A fun site to keep abreast of the mood...

http://www.electionprediction.org/

[normanchateau]

Although still in minority territory, I am now predicting that based on the trend that the Tories will win a massive majority.

I agree completely. This is a historic time for Canada and reminiscent of what happened in Great Britain in the early part of the twentieth century when the Liberals became a third party leaving only Labour and the Conservatives as the major parties. Churchill was forced to abandon the Liberals and rejoin the Conservatives if he hoped to remain a MP.

Dion has been a disaster for the Liberals and even in the unlikely event that he campaigns well, he'll have no momentum and few funds for advertising. Canada will eventually have two major parties, CPC and NDP.

Eventually the NDP will capture former Liberal voters but it will be a long process shortened only if the social conservative wing of CPC becomes influential.

[Shakeyhands]

I agree completely. This is a historic time for Canada and reminiscent of what happened in Great Britain in the early part of the twentieth century when the Liberals became a third party leaving only Labour and the Conservatives as the major parties. Churchill was forced to abandon the Liberals and rejoin the Conservatives if he hoped to remain a MP.

Dion has been a disaster for the Liberals and even in the unlikely event that he campaigns well, he'll have no momentum and few funds for advertising. Canada will eventually have two major parties, CPC and NDP.

Eventually the NDP will capture former Liberal voters but it will be a long process shortened only if the social conservative wing of CPC becomes influential.

Well.. There goes my breakfast.

Hopefully that doesn't happen.

[M.Dancer]

Well.. There goes my breakfast.

Hopefully that doesn't happen.

I agree. There must be a party for those who find both Layton and Harper not their cup of tea....which as Dion moves the party further left, Those Canadians are left out...which is probably why many will either not vote or not vote for Dion.

Hopeful within the next 4 years a better voice will rise in the Liberal ranks who does represent the middle path.

[normanchateau]

Hopefully that doesn't happen.

With the Conservatives now 9 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario before the campaign officially begins, it's inevitable.

Dion does not have the personality, funds or Flanagan- and Rove-type, American-trained political advisors to fight the kind of fight that he now needs to fight.

[M.Dancer]

With the Conservatives now 9 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario before the campaign officially begins, it's inevitable.

Dion does not have the personality, funds or Flanagan- and Rove-type, American-trained political advisors to fight the kind of fight that he now needs to fight.

And more importantly, a policy and programme that Canadians will buy into.

[normanchateau]

And more importantly, a policy and programme that Canadians will buy into.

Like six months in jail for one marijuana plant?

[jdobbin]

Let's hope that doesn't happen. I've always respected your opinions, your loyalty and your perseverence. Canada always needs passionate people like you Dobbin to reflect it's diverse views. If the Tories do manage to get a majority and continue to cultivate a centrist approach, perhaps you could consider joining as a center/left influence. If the Tories truly embrace grass roots, I'm sure you could make a valuable contribution. It's in their best interest to over time, win over rational people like yourself. Having said this, it's never over till it's over. It's often said that "events" often overtake elections. Anything can happen.

I don't know about that. It seems that there are very few if any progressives or Red Tories left in the Conservative party that I'd like to see elected and I feel there is certainly no room for me in a party like that. Likewise, the NDP would have no room for my belief in fiscal conservatism and lower taxes.

There is a rump of the provincial Liberal party still left in Manitoba. It has climbed out of the 1980s where there were no seats and where the party didn't run a full slate of candidates. They held on to their two seats by the skin of their teeth in the last election this past year. I do all I can to support it, even ran as a candidate but if it ceased to exist, I would probably drop out of provincial politics. I just don't feel that the provincial NDP or the Tories is the right fit for me.

Some say if you don't vote, you can't complain. However, if I couldn't live with my vote, I wouldn't vote.

If I lost my federal option, I'd probably just withdraw from being involved altogether. I'd do my best to keep that social liberal/fiscal conservative option available but in the end, I'm only one person and can only do so much.

[M.Dancer]

Like six months in jail for one marijuana plant?

Yeah that's a bit harsh. I see 10 plants as a good number with maybe 11 months in jail.

[jdobbin]

I agree completely. This is a historic time for Canada and reminiscent of what happened in Great Britain in the early part of the twentieth century when the Liberals became a third party leaving only Labour and the Conservatives as the major parties. Churchill was forced to abandon the Liberals and rejoin the Conservatives if he hoped to remain a MP.

I guess we'll see if the first weeks of the campaign show some resilience not yet revealed. As I said, the trend is not good.

Dion has been a disaster for the Liberals and even in the unlikely event that he campaigns well, he'll have no momentum and few funds for advertising. Canada will eventually have two major parties, CPC and NDP.

It isn't only Dion. It was the belief that there was a luxury of infighting in the interim whereas the Liberals were facing a nited right.

Eventually the NDP will capture former Liberal voters but it will be a long process shortened only if the social conservative wing of CPC becomes influential.

Most voters will likely split along NDP or Conservative lines with the demise of the Liberals if it came to pass. The Greens might eventually make inroads but it is just as likely they'd be bringing up the rear for decades to come.