Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

No intent to be personal.

No harm done.

What I don't believe is the claim many LPC supporters make, in that the NDP is responsibile for the state of affairs of the LPC.

I have never made that claim. Who has made those claims?

The LPC are not a good opposition party. Unless you consider ABSENT as taking on the Harpre Conservatives.

The Liberals are terrible in Opposition most of the time. The problem is that the NDP is so good at it. A lot of the time people don't think they want to govern so much as to oppose. I don't make that claim lightly. They need more people who look like they are ready to jump into government.

The LPC campaign from the left. Nothing new.

And have had many MPs who are also on the left. I had Lloyd Axworthy in my riding for many years. Even now, NDPers continue to remember his time in office as one that was good for the city, province and the country. The party has been a constant compromise between the Axworthys and the Manleys.

What the NDP needs is someone like Gary Doer to take the reins. The problem for Doer is he doesn't speak French very well.

Edited August 22, 2008 by jdobbin

[jbg]

Fired off a cheque today to the national NDP. I didn't have the heart to tell them if polls indicate the Tories are anywhere near majority territory come election day, I along with legions of other supporters will be abandoning ship by placing a strategic vote for the Liberals.

I fired off a cheque check to the NDP as well. I'll be voting NDP though, loyally.

[capricorn]

According to this poll, Conservatives take the lead in Quebec.

A survey by the reputable CROP polling firm shows the Conservatives heading the pack with 31 per cent support, a shade ahead of the Bloc Québécois, which registered 30 per cent. The Liberals trail in third place with 20 per cent, followed by the NDP with 14 per cent support.

The poll also showed that Stephen Harper is by far Quebecers' top choice among federal party leader, with 35 per cent saying he is best suited to be prime minister. New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton came in second, favoured by 24 per cent, while only 20 per cent opted for Liberal leader Stéphane Dion.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...db-48f3994cf919

A March 2008 poll by CROP had the following results.

The Bloc, which has been the province's dominant party, is down to 30 per cent support. The Tories are nipping at the sovereigntist party's heels with 29 per cent. The Liberals have only 20 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...80330/20080330/

Looks like the fight between the Bloc and the Conservatives for top spot in Quebec is heating up.

[jdobbin]

Missed this poll when it first came out. This is the only place I could find it listed.

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=...5&Itemid=26

With election rhetoric between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Opposition Leader Stephane Dion heating up, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television finds that the Conservatives (36%, up 2 points) continue to lead the Grits (30%, unchanged) nationally among decided voters.

Further, if an election were to happen tomorrow, the NDP would receive 14% of the vote (unchanged), while the Green Party would receive support from one in ten (10%, down 1 point) Canadians. Six percent (6%) of Canadians remain undecided.

Focusing on vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals (35%) are slightly ahead of the Tories (33%), while the NDP (15%) and Green Party (16%) are statistically tied for third place.

In Quebec, the Bloc remains safely in the lead (34%), while the Liberals (25%) and Conservatives (25%) fight it out for second position. The NDP is receiving support from 11% of Quebecers, while the Green Party (5%) trails significantly.

[Wild Bill]

Missed this poll when it first came out. This is the only place I could find it listed.

http://netnewsledger.com/index.php?option=...5&Itemid=26

Interesting! I found the rest of the article even more intriguing, however!

"Since July 11, Tories Gaining Momentum Across the Country…

The Tories under Stephen Harper have increased their national lead from 1 point to 6 points over Stephane Dion’s Liberals since July 11. This improvement has been driven by the gaining of momentum in a few key battlegrounds.

Behind, But Closing the Gap:

* In Quebec, the Tories have closed a 26-point gap between themselves and the Bloc. The gap now sits at 9 points, representing a 17-point improvement.

* In Ontario, the Tories have closed a 12-point gap between themselves and the Liberals. The gap now sits at two points, representing a 10-point improvement.

* In Atlantic Canada, the Tories have closed a 12-point gap between themselves and the Liberals. The gap now sits at one point, a statistical tie, representing an 11-point improvement.

Maintaining the Lead:

* In British Columbia, the Tories have widened their lead from 12 to 16 points, representing an improvement of 4 points.

* In Alberta, the 46-point lead for the Conservatives has been maintained.

* In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives are currently 14 points ahead of the Liberals, statistically unchanged from the 15-point lead they had in July."

Surely this tells us more than the portion YOU quoted!

I guess it always pays to read the entire link...

[madmax]

The Liberals are terrible in Opposition most of the time. The problem is that the NDP is so good at it. A lot of the time people don't think they want to govern so much as to oppose. I don't make that claim lightly. They need more people who look like they are ready to jump into government.

If you don't have the depth, you shouldn't govern. Nor is it likely for the NDP to assume those reigns federally, like they have done Provincially. Like Any Party they have had success and failure governing, the worst of those often thinking they can lead the LPC without ever holding a membership or simply running from their failures as leaders into the arms of the Federal LPC. Perfect arrogance for the arrogant party. Lately the CPC have shown a degree of stubborness that challenges any party to work with them including the LPC regardless of how ineffectual they are as an opposition. The CPC wasn't as effective an opposition party as was the Reform or BQ and the NDP hadn't been an effective opposition throughout most of the 90s because it is hard to be effective with 9 MPs.

The NDP is an effective opposition, including when the LPC are in power or the CPC. Both parties having their difficulties with a minority parliment. I think Harper is making a Martin like mistake, after wandering around the donut shops. (My favourite place for shop talk).

And have had many MPs who are also on the left. I had Lloyd Axworthy in my riding for many years. Even now, NDPers continue to remember his time in office as one that was good for the city, province and the country. The party has been a constant compromise between the Axworthys and the Manleys.

And some argue that Pat Martin, and Peter Stoffer are to far to the right. I like Stoffer and think he is better dealing with Military issues then the CPC blowhards who con the public. Ships with no fuel and better treatment of our personell coming back from Afghanistan as well as proper treatment for our veterans is what I like about him.

All Parties have their left and their rights and all those voices in between, the Liberatarians and Freedom minded individuals who dislike government control of their lives.

All Parties have their Ken Dryden types (who might have been the best choice for LPC leader to challenge the CPC) and hold off the parties on the left of the LPC. People might believe him.

Not enough parties have people with the focus that Preston Manning had. He never took his eye off the ball for short term political points. He lead an effective opposition.

Meanwhile their are some guys I like that appear to get things done for the better of the country. I like Jim Prentice from what I have seen of him. VS Party hacks that defend all policy of the parties and all the stupid stuff leaders and MPs say.

What the NDP needs is someone like Gary Doer to take the reins. The problem for Doer is he doesn't speak French very well.

And then you run for Leadership of the MLPC and free Manitoba from the communist hordes

[MontyBurns]

I'll be voting NDP though, loyally.

Me too.

[Vancouver King]

Missed this poll when it first came out. This is the only place I could find it listed.

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month? Harper pumped another billion into the province? Maxine Bernier got a new girlfriend?

Where are the Nanos numbers when we need them.

[Topaz]

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month? Harper pumped another billion into the province? Maxine Bernier got a new girlfriend?

Where are the Nanos numbers when we need them.

[/quoted]

Which of those two pollers worked for Harper in the last election, kinda makes one not to believe any of the polls!

[Wild Bill]

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month? Harper pumped another billion into the province? Maxine Bernier got a new girlfriend?

Where are the Nanos numbers when we need them.

Which of those two pollers worked for Harper in the last election, kinda makes one not to believe any of the polls!

Now, now! Don't get all bent out of shape because your WISHES aren't proving true! Our own preferences and those of the majority of our fellow citizens can often be quite different. That doesn't mean there are crooked bribes or polls happening. It just means that you didn't read your fellow citizens' feelings accurately.

It's called being objective.

The fact that we had a change is not surprising. That always happens! Between elections polls always stay kinda flat and boring. People just don't care that much!

When it looks like an election is close and especially when it is actually called people tend to wake up and pay attention. It's easy to say you don't like one leader or party. It's quite another to decide to vote against him when you have to consider your alternatives. So a poll will show a sudden increase or decrease in one or another's popularity at that time, when it might have stayed relatively flat for months.

That's the reason I always smile at those who get all hung up at polls in the months between elections. They don't really show a lot! Again, because most people are NOT political junkies like us! They have a life and they don't want to waste a lot of energy on politics at times when they can't do anything about it.

What IS surprising is the big "catch up" of the Tories, especially in Quebec. This clearly shows momentum! Perhaps that's why jdobbin didn't show that part in his post. The increase for the Tories shows that Dion just hasn't inspired many Canadians. In fact, he's lost a lot of ground. To be fair, he's in an impossible position. He was always expected to be a "caretaker" leader. The smart Liberals never expected to win the next election, so soon after all the baggage from the Martin term. When Dion loses he will promptly be tossed out at the December Liberal leadership convention. Big guns like Rae and Iggy will start to play for real. Some others might come out of the woodwork as well. Dion's loss will have put enough distance and time from the baggage that it will all sink out of sight with his memory. The new Liberal leader will have a fresh start. Harper's crew will have been in office long enough that maybe Canadians will be getting tired of him.

The NEXT election will be the important one!

Meanwhile, I'm wondering if all these predictions of this election being a waste of time for returning another Tory minority are wrong. If this poll is at all accurate and there is that kind of momentum going on then Harper may be heading for a majority.

If so, I'm not certain if it's because he's impressed us all so much or if Dion has just failed to look like a better alternative.

Still, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. I may turn out to be "full of it" but I guarantee I won't lack company on this board!

[Wild Bill]

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month? Harper pumped another billion into the province? Maxine Bernier got a new girlfriend?

Where are the Nanos numbers when we need them.

Isn't Decima the one that all the journalists and politicos always joke about always being wrong?

[capricorn]

In this thread 3 weeks ago Decima had Tory Quebec support at 17%. Ipsos Reid above has it now at 30%. What explains an 80% increase in CPC support in less than a month?

The August 27th CROP poll I posted yesterday has a larger Quebec sample than Decima. Perhaps this explains the discrepancy or maybe it's that the Conservatives are really making inroads in the province. Funny I haven't heard anyone observe that it is good news that a federalist party is giving the Bloc a run for its money and is good news for the country.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...db-48f3994cf919

[jdobbin]

Interesting! I found the rest of the article even more intriguing, however!

"Since July 11, Tories Gaining Momentum Across the Country…

The Tories under Stephen Harper have increased their national lead from 1 point to 6 points over Stephane Dion’s Liberals since July 11. This improvement has been driven by the gaining of momentum in a few key battlegrounds.

Surely this tells us more than the portion YOU quoted!

I guess it always pays to read the entire link...

The moderator has specifically said not to quote the whole article which is why I post a link and usually the first paragraph or two. I generally expect people to read the link when I post it rather than accusing me of leaving something out.

[jdobbin]

Isn't Decima the one that all the journalists and politicos always joke about always being wrong?

Actually, that would have been Ipsos. They were the ones in the last election that had a wildly double digit lead for the the Tories a few days before the election in 2006.

The most accurate poll was SES which is now known as Nanos.

[jdobbin]

The August 27th CROP poll I posted yesterday has a larger Quebec sample than Decima. Perhaps this explains the discrepancy or maybe it's that the Conservatives are really making inroads in the province. Funny I haven't heard anyone observe that it is good news that a federalist party is giving the Bloc a run for its money and is good news for the country.

I've said several times in the polls section that I'd rather see federalist support rise even if it is Tory support when it comes to Quebec.

I have seen the BQ declared dead too many times to believe it though.

As far as the sample goes, you are correct. Decima's poll is a three week rolling average based on 757 people. That isn't too bad but it isn't 1000 people over a three day poll.

[jdobbin]

What IS surprising is the big "catch up" of the Tories, especially in Quebec. This clearly shows momentum! Perhaps that's why jdobbin didn't show that part in his post.

I have posted a link and the introductory paragraphs as per the moderator's instructions. The accusation that something is hidden when I posted a poll that everyone missed is a little odious.

[Wild Bill]

The moderator has specifically said not to quote the whole article which is why I post a link and usually the first paragraph or two. I generally expect people to read the link when I post it rather than accusing me of leaving something out.

My apologies!

[capricorn]

I've said several times in the polls section that I'd rather see federalist support rise even if it is Tory support when it comes to Quebec.

My bad.

I have seen the BQ declared dead too many times to believe it though.

Admittedly, they are a tough nut to crack.

[jdobbin]

My apologies!

Thank you. I post any and all polls when I find them in this thread specifically for ease in people tracking federal results.

There will always be a link to that poll so that the breakdowns can be seen for the reader themselves. The moderator asked that the extract be small when posting a quote so as to not be problematic for copyright. It was also meant to curb some of the very large posts that we sometimes see here.

I'm sorry I didn't see this poll earlier than I did. I'm also sorry if I got a little upset.

Now, in terms of my reaction to the CROP and other polls from Decima and Ipsos: I think we are seeing a stronger federal acceptance in Quebec. Whether it be for the Liberals or the Tories is hard to see. CROP says Tories while Decima and Ipsos have Liberals ahead or tied with the Tories. All the polls have the BQ still a force to be reckoned with.

I never underestimate the BQ. They are consistent election performers. I would love if an election in Quebec was between two or three federalist options. However, the nationalist option remains the biggest obstacle.

[Vancouver King]

You want the Nanos numbers you got the Nanos numbers.

To clear any confusion these are the folks who predicted all 5 major party totals to within one hundreth of one per cent of the actual outcomes in 2006. With other polling results all over the map it is comforting to have a snapshot of political preferences that can be counted on.

Liberals - 35%

Conservatives - 33%

NDP - 17%

Bloc - 8%

Greens - 7%

Welcome to reality, Wild Bill.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-SU08-T315.pdf

[jdobbin]

You want the Nanos numbers you got the Nanos numbers.

To clear any confusion these are the folks who predicted all 5 major party totals to within one hundreth of one per cent of the actual outcomes in 2006. With other polling results all over the map it is comforting to have a snapshot of political preferences that can be counted on.

Liberals - 35%

Conservatives - 33%

NDP - 17%

Bloc - 8%

Greens - 7%

This poll certainly shows BQ numbers down in Quebec. Could be a breakthrough for Liberal and Tories if it holds. I just know that the BQ are the New York Islanders of politics. They seem to perform in the play-offs.

[Vancouver King]

You recently asked what must the CPC internal polls show. The Nanos results above represent exactly what the Tory braintrust was also viewing when they made the decision to plunge into an election.

Faced with unfavorable numbers and coupled with Harpers desperate explanation for calling the election, an observer could reasonably conclude that the CPC hierchy was fully convinced that even worse numbers awaited them if they delayed longer allowing the Opposition to make it's move or by honoring their own fixed election date.

What else explains Harper's rush to the polls in the face of such unpopularity?

Edited August 29, 2008 by Vancouver King

[madmax]

This poll certainly shows BQ numbers down in Quebec. Could be a breakthrough for Liberal and Tories if it holds.

Committed Voters - Quebec (N=214, MoE ± 6.8%, 19 times out of 20)

BQ 31% (-9)

Conservative Party 25% (+2)

Liberal Party 24% (+2)

NDP 13% (+8)

Green Party 7% (-2)

(*Note: Undecided 14%)

What the above numbers show me, is that the NDP who have had virtually no prescence in Quebec, have been on a steady climb, actually surpassing the GPs. They used be less then 1% because there really hadn't been a party base within the Province. I see BQ voters parking their vote with the NDP. Perhaps these numbers will stick, perhaps not. As someone mentioned the BQ are difficult to count out.

I just know that the BQ are the New York Islanders of politics. They seem to perform in the play-offs.

Exactly.

[Wild Bill]

You want the Nanos numbers you got the Nanos numbers.

To clear any confusion these are the folks who predicted all 5 major party totals to within one hundreth of one per cent of the actual outcomes in 2006. With other polling results all over the map it is comforting to have a snapshot of political preferences that can be counted on.

Liberals - 35%

Conservatives - 33%

NDP - 17%

Bloc - 8%

Greens - 7%

Welcome to reality, Wild Bill.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-SU08-T315.pdf

Reality? Maybe. Whatever happened to this modern idea of 'consensus', where if a majority of 'scientists' believe in global warming then it must be true? Nanos is outside the consensus. I guess for some it's all in what you believe in the first place.

That being said, you may indeed be citing a more accurate poll. The will of the people is what it is and it doesn't matter a damn about a poll. Polls are mere snapshots and indicators, after all. A betting man would use them and over the years he would consistently make money but he would never be so foolish as to expect to be right every time.

Just out of curiosity, was 2006 the only time Nanos was so accurate? The reason I ask is that mathematically one or two instances is called 'blind luck'. It's like the probabilities of coin tossing. Just because a coin came up heads 3 times in a row means squat as to the chances of it being heads on the next toss. Coin tosses have no memory, as the math wizards say. Every time you toss it's 50:50, regardless if you were on a streak or whatever.

If Nanos has a history of being more accurate than all the other guys then I would agree that they seem to be better at their methodology than the other guys.

Anyhow, the 'reality' will be the election itself. Our wishes are meaningless, including mine.

I've always suspected that when those seers analyzed chicken entrails to tell someone's fortune they were really just conning the guy out of a free lunch!

Edited August 29, 2008 by Wild Bill

[jdobbin]

What the above numbers show me, is that the NDP who have had virtually no prescence in Quebec, have been on a steady climb, actually surpassing the GPs. They used be less then 1% because there really hadn't been a party base within the Province. I see BQ voters parking their vote with the NDP. Perhaps these numbers will stick, perhaps not. As someone mentioned the BQ are difficult to count out.

I'd have no problem if the NDP stole BQ votes and even supplanted them. I'd prefer the province to be represented by federalists and the one thing I have never questioned about the NDP is their commitment to federalism.

Those BQ though...they hide in the tall grass and grab the seats in the House when it counts.