Canadian Political Polls

[normanchateau]

Nanos had the 2006 result predicted accurately to within one one-hundredth of one percent of the actual outcomes for all 5 major parties. No one else, including EKOS, was close.

If I'm not mistaken, Ekos had a much smaller sample size in 2006. In 2008, there sample size is huge.

Here are some Ekos numbers from January, 2006 which were surprisingly close:

http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/5Jan2006PR.pdf

[Vancouver King]

What if they win a majority without any representation from Quebec?

That would be great.

Great for what? Great for who?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Good luck with that majority power play Stevie Boy.

[jdobbin]

What if they win a majority without any representation from Quebec?

That would be great.

Is that the official view from the Tory warroom and Harper?

[Jobu]

Is that the official view from the Tory warroom and Harper?

Doubt it. But I would find it rather humorous.

[Vancouver King]

Doubt it. But I would find it rather humorous.

So Quebec in isolation would be great since it would bring you personal humour. Is that right?

[Vancouver King]

Ipsos Reid for CanWest News. Election prediction: Conservative minority.

Cons 34%

Libs 29

NDP 18

Bloc 9

Green 8

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...7d-719bc5d3f1e1

[PoliticalCitizen]

Ipsos Reid for CanWest News. Election prediction: Conservative minority.

I will not forget John Tory bragging about a Conservative majority here in Ontario and in the end handing Liberals a bigger majority...

I guess there are less flip-flop ridings in a national election...

[Jobu]

So Quebec in isolation would be great since it would bring you personal humour. Is that right?

I really couldn't care less about Quebec. They have proven time and time again that they have no interest in unity. I am sick and tired of the handouts and pandering to Quebec, by all federalist parties.

I have no sympathy for Quebec if they continue to vote for the BQ. Whether it's the LPC, CPC or NDP, if they don't evidence any interest in a united Canada or voting for a party that is more than a one trick pony, I see no need to placate them.

Federal leaders may feel differently.

[Jobu]

Segma poll, for whatever it's worth, shows LPC and NDP in battle for second (1500 respondents, Oct 5th to 9th):

Conservatives 34.6

Liberals 23

NDP 20.5

Greens 10

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elect...minoritaire.php

[Bryan]

I really couldn't care less about Quebec. They have proven time and time again that they have no interest in unity. I am sick and tired of the handouts and pandering to Quebec, by all federalist parties.

I have no sympathy for Quebec if they continue to vote for the BQ. Whether it's the LPC, CPC or NDP, if they don't evidence any interest in a united Canada or voting for a party that is more than a one trick pony, I see no need to placate them.

Federal leaders may feel differently.

I totally agree. The false indignation over arts funding to me was the last straw. They get the freaking world handed to them, and it's never enough. Harper bends over backwards to appease them, and they just spit in his face. Pretending that the criticisms of Dion's inability to answer a simple question on the economy has anything whatsoever to do with english being his second language is just icing on the cake. Screw them. Let them keep chewing on their own faces and never have a voice in Ottawa.

Edited October 11, 2008 by Bryan

[PoliticalCitizen]

Screw them.

That's the attitude.

You're from the West, I take it?

[Smallc]

That's the attitude.

You're from the West, I take it?

Not that I disagree with you on the view of many westerners...or Ontarians for that matter, but I'm from the west, and I love the entire country. I wish more people felt the same.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Not that I disagree with you on the view of many westerners...or Ontarians for that matter, but I'm from the west, and I love the entire country. I wish more people felt the same.

I used to love this country, when it was ours. Now after the advent of free trade that isn't, we have become a vassal of the United States.

[Smallc]

I used to love this country, when it was ours. Now after the advent of free trade that isn't, we have become a vassal of the United States.

I'm sorry you feel that way, but I very much disagree. Canada is my country, and it is NOT a vassal of the US.

[Vancouver King]

Conservative lead slides to 4 points. The country's most accuarate pollster shows Tory popularity at 32% - lowest of the campaign.

Cons 32%

Libs 28

NDP 22

Bloc 10

Grn 8

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-11-2008E.pdf

[Jobu]

Conservative lead slides to 4 points. The country's most accuarate pollster shows Tory popularity at 32% - lowest of the campaign.

Cons 32%

Libs 28

NDP 22

Bloc 10

Grn 8

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-11-2008E.pdf

My prediction is that Nanos will lose his credibility this election and pull a "Zogby".

His overemphasis on citizens who won't vote, and his curious line of questioning which doesn't even list parties, are just two of the reasons. Plus, his Atlantic numbers in particular are ridiculous. Each party is seeing 5-10 point swings every night.

Having said that, many polls are in the same range, though Nanos seems to be at the top of the LPC support. It could be a very close election in terms of overall popular vote, but as we all know that doesn't really matter.

The underlying numbers on Nanos are interesting. At least according to him, and again I am skeptical, CPC is gaining significantly in Ontario, which is where this election, and its size, will be won.

[Vancouver King]

My prediction is that Nanos will lose his credibility this election and pull a "Zogby".

His overemphasis on citizens who won't vote, and his curious line of questioning which doesn't even list parties, are just two of the reasons. Plus, his Atlantic numbers in particular are ridiculous. Each party is seeing 5-10 point swings every night.

Having said that, many polls are in the same range, though Nanos seems to be at the top of the LPC support. It could be a very close election in terms of overall popular vote, but as we all know that doesn't really matter.

The underlying numbers on Nanos are interesting. At least according to him, and again I am skeptical, CPC is gaining significantly in Ontario, which is where this election, and its size, will be won.

You can argue with success all you want using your hopeful theories. Until another pollster proves it, I will base my opinions on proven winners - not biased losers.

[Bryan]

Not that I disagree with you on the view of many westerners...or Ontarians for that matter, but I'm from the west, and I love the entire country. I wish more people felt the same.

I love the whole country too. I don't have anything specifically against Quebec itself either. My wife and I have spent plenty of time there, and even talked about moving there because we liked it so much.

I'm just tired of insecure selfish Quebeckers who clearly do NOT love the whole country.

[BC_chick]

I'm just tired of insecure selfish Quebeckers who clearly do NOT love the whole country.

How do you feel about the 23% of Albertans who clearly share the same antipathy toward Canada as some Quebeckers?

http://www.separationalberta.com/

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I applaud those Albertan brothers and sisters of mine. I believe that we have THE RIGHT TO VOICE OUR OPINION, as indeed do the citizens of Quebec.

[Bryan]

How do you feel about the 23% of Albertans who clearly share the same antipathy toward Canada as some Quebeckers?

http://www.separationalberta.com/

You don't see western separation parties taking over the agenda of the entire country. Having a dissenting opinion is one thing. Even the protest vote for the Bloc the first couple of times was fine, but eventually you need to grow up.

The west had their protest vote too with Reform, but they very quickly realized that would not amount to anything more. Because they were intelligent, they realized that being part of the process was better than being just outside of it and/or getting in the way of it. Bloc supporters need to grow up.

[kengs333]

You don't see western separation parties taking over the agenda of the entire country. Having a dissenting opinion is one thing. Even the protest vote for the Bloc the first couple of times was fine, but eventually you need to grow up.

Ummmm... the Conservative Party basically is a regional party representing in the Prairies.

The west had their protest vote too with Reform, but they very quickly realized that would not amount to anything more. Because they were intelligent, they realized that being part of the process was better than being just outside of it and/or getting in the way of it. Bloc supporters need to grow up.

Well, they just changed their name a couple of times and eliminated their conservative rivals.

[BC_chick]

I applaud those Albertan brothers and sisters of mine. I believe that we have THE RIGHT TO VOICE OUR OPINION, as indeed do the citizens of Quebec.

Everyone has a right to an opinion, I would never argue otherwise.

But what was it Bryan said though? Something about "whiny" and "not loving all of the country"... ?

Keep that in mind next time you want to pretend it's jealousy that makes a lot of people dislike Alberta....

[kengs333]

Conservative lead slides to 4 points. The country's most accuarate pollster shows Tory popularity at 32% - lowest of the campaign.

Cons 32%

Libs 28

NDP 22

Bloc 10

Grn 8

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...er-11-2008E.pdf

And this is before the election day left-wing shift to the Liberals...