Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Best speech and campaign will win it.

The lukewarm feelings Canadians have for any party probably means best speech and campaign results in another minority.

Edited February 15, 2008 by jdobbin

[Vancouver King]

The lukewarm feelings Canadians have for any party probably means best speech and campaign results in another minority.

Dion is crazy if he pulls the plug over the budget when the simple passage of time will deliver Harper's head on a platter. Prop up the Tory minority at all costs and in six months - when the nations economy lies in shambles - let Harper explain to the electorate why Ottawa is then running budgetary deficits and that the tough times are all the fault of American conservatives.

Edited February 16, 2008 by Vancouver King

[Visionseeker]

Dion is crazy if he pulls the plug over the budget when the simple passage of time will deliver Harper's head on a platter. Prop up the Tory minority at all costs and in six months - when the nations economy lies in shambles - let Harper explain to the electorate why Ottawa is then running budgetary deficits and that the tough times are all the fault of American conservatives.

I think you have hit on the argument that many in Dion’s caucus are advancing. And I also think there’s so truth to it. But at the same time, an election that reinforces the current stalemate gives Dion campaign experience and weakens Harper.

If we go to the polls this spring, we will likely get an outcome that is similar to what we have in terms of seat numbers, but the riding by riding results could yield some interesting results in terms of Liberal momentum.

If I were advising the Liberals, I’d say pull the trigger this spring with the understanding that the “real” battle will be fought in the spring of 2009 (assuming Dion doesn’t fall on his face).

[capricorn]

If I were advising the Liberals, I’d say pull the trigger this spring with the understanding that the “real” battle will be fought in the spring of 2009 (assuming Dion doesn’t fall on his face).

If there is another Conservative win, a Liberal leadership convention will surely follow and Dion will be replaced. By the same token, if the Conservatives win another minority, Harper's leadership may also be reviewed.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

That is what Canadians need to have happen, put the leaders on trial after an election.

[August1991]

Canada has three strong federal political parties and one small but viable party (NDP). Until one of these parties disappears (or combines with another party), Canada will likely have minority governments. Winning a majority will be very difficult.

Chretien was fortunate because the Conservatives were divided into the PC and Reform.

All of this is a consequence of Trudeau's patriation of the Constitution in 1982 and Mulroney's attempt to fix this error with Meech Lake.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Ipsos Reid.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=314002

Election fever may rage in Ottawa but a new national survey shows neither of the biggest parties in a position to change their current standings. The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, said the Conservatives dropped one point to 36% since the last survey two weeks ago, while Liberal support remained static at 29%.

The NDP slipped one point to 13% and the Green party held steady at 10%.

The results suggest the Liberals and Conservatives remain pretty much where they stood in public support at the time of the 2006 election, despite escalating talk in Ottawa of the likelihood of an election.

No real change. Certainly if anyone thought their prospects of winning a majority now should take note of the lack of movement anywhere.

[jdobbin]

Dion is crazy if he pulls the plug over the budget when the simple passage of time will deliver Harper's head on a platter. Prop up the Tory minority at all costs and in six months - when the nations economy lies in shambles - let Harper explain to the electorate why Ottawa is then running budgetary deficits and that the tough times are all the fault of American conservatives.

We could certainly have tough economic times ahead that would give an already ambivalent electorate to consider changes.

I think the problem is that Dion looks weak voting in favour of the government over and over again. Dion might want an election just to break the logjam.

[Vancouver King]

We could certainly have tough economic times ahead that would give an already ambivalent electorate to consider changes.

I think the problem is that Dion looks weak voting in favour of the government over and over again. Dion might want an election just to break the logjam.

There are other compelling reasons for the Opposition to hesitate before plunging into a Spring vote. You have frequently touched on one: the longer Dion has to apprentice the more professional will be his performance. Already his English shows improvement and his questioning in the House now has a more appropriate air of indignation. More time should show further improvement.

The addition of several high profile MPs to the Liberal front bench can only be a positive factor for the Liberal Party as is a less obvious one: The impending economic downturn is beyond Harper's control and for a PM that micro manages every nuance of his government's policy and communications, establishing the agenda with a tight focus will give way - as it did with the Mulroney hearings - to reacting to events.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained their strongest lead over the Liberals since first taking power in 2006, and have edged ahead in support on almost every key issue, according to a new Strategic Counsel poll.

"It's a cold shower for Liberal election plans," the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo told CTV.ca Wednesday.

When respondents were asked which party they would vote for, nearly 40 per cent said they would back the Conservatives (percentage-point change from a Jan. 10-13 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 39 per cent (+3)

* Liberals: 27 per cent (-3)

* NDP: 12 per cent (same)

* Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)

CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was pushing for an election Tuesday, and was considering voting down the federal budget in March.

"He happens to believe that if Canadians see him in an election campaign, they'll like him and elect him as prime minister," said Fife.

"Of course, Liberal MPs have a different view of that. They believe that the party will get slaughtered in an election campaign, so they're telling him to please hold off and wait until it looks advantageous for the Liberal party to actually win."

Fife said the 27 per cent support received by the Liberals reflects a core of Canadians who will vote for the party no matter what.

"I would think it would be almost impossible for them to go below that because that's where their core vote lies," he told CTV's Canada AM on Thursday.

Donolo noted that the Conservatives have only been in power for two years, and the public usually demands a change in government after a far longer stretch in office.

I'm sure this will be ammunition for Liberal MPs who don't want to have an election this spring.

[jdobbin]

Still, here is the results from a poll taken in the same time from Decima.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...qO5xh9sDA7CcXqQ

A new poll suggests no federal party should be in a rush to force a spring election, with the Conservatives and Liberals locked in a virtual dead heat.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 35 per cent and the Liberals at 33 per cent, a statistical tie given the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error.

Both parties remain well short of capturing majority support and neither appears to have strong momentum.

Support for the NDP and Green party slipped slightly to 13 per cent and nine per cent respectively.

And while the Bloc Quebecois enjoyed a commanding lead in Quebec with 35 per cent support, it was down seven points from the popular vote it captured in the 2006 election.

The poll was released Wednesday as the parties prepare to embark on a series of confidence votes next week that could topple Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government.

The first and most likely trigger for an election will be Tuesday's budget. The NDP and Bloc have signalled that they intend to vote against the budget but the Liberals are torn over what to do.

Both polls still show minority status. Nothing to indicate that either has jumped over the 40% mark.

Edited February 22, 2008 by jdobbin

[geoffrey]

With Dion's support so low, Harper won't need 40%. Chretien did it with 36% because of the vote splitting. The NDP and the Liberals or even the Greens may split that vote up enough for a majority win.

I think the issues polling is most telling. No one likes Dion on anything.

[Keepitsimple]

The Strategic poll is the latest of many that show that the large majority of Canadians believe the country is moving in the right direction. In this case it was 60% who agreed and 28% who disagreed. It makes sense that this will ultimately affect how people vote when the time comes to actually cast a ballot.

[jdobbin]

With Dion's support so low, Harper won't need 40%. Chretien did it with 36% because of the vote splitting. The NDP and the Liberals or even the Greens may split that vote up enough for a majority win.

I think the issues polling is most telling. No one likes Dion on anything.

Since the NDP hasn't budged in the polls and the Greens have their vote spread thin, the vote splitting would have to entail even further declines in Liberal support. We've had several polls saying the two main parties are in a statistical tie. On the same day, Decima and Strategic have two different results, both in minority territory.

Dion might not have as much support. He is running on the Liberal brand which still remains strong more than two years into Tory rule.

No pollster is saying that the Tories will be able to win at less than 40%.

[jdobbin]

The Strategic poll is the latest of many that show that the large majority of Canadians believe the country is moving in the right direction. In this case it was 60% who agreed and 28% who disagreed. It makes sense that this will ultimately affect how people vote when the time comes to actually cast a ballot.

And yet we are still seeing consistent polls where the Liberals and Tories are in a statistical tie.

If the Tories were really able to translate that "moving in the right direction", it would mean over 40% in the polls.

[August1991]

Both polls still show minority status. Nothing to indicate that either has jumped over the 40& mark.

I agree. The Libs and Tories are bouncing around the mid-30s. All the results are within the margin of error.

With Dion's support so low, Harper won't need 40%. Chretien did it with 36% because of the vote splitting. The NDP and the Liberals or even the Greens may split that vote up enough for a majority win.

I don't know about that. Chretien benefitted from vote splits and a weak NDP but Harper won't have those luxuries.

I think that to win a majority, Harper will have to win over one of three constituencies: women, urban voters or French Quebec. We won't really know until the Tories wheel Harper out during a campaign.

The Strategic poll is the latest of many that show that the large majority of Canadians believe the country is moving in the right direction. In this case it was 60% who agreed and 28% who disagreed. It makes sense that this will ultimately affect how people vote when the time comes to actually cast a ballot.

That's a good point (and Geoffrey said the same about issues above).

In a blind taste test, Coke drinkers prefer Pepsi. Now, Pepsi just has to get some of them to switch with the blindfold off.

[capricorn]

Dion might not have as much support. He is running on the Liberal brand which still remains strong more than two years into Tory rule.

Therein lies the problem. Dion and his team should have trumpeted a renewal of the Liberal Party and not championed the record of the Chretien/Martin Liberals. An opportunity lost, IMO.

No pollster is saying that the Tories will be able to win at less than 40%.

A majority has been obtained before by the Liberals with less than 40%. Why would the Conservatives not pull it off themselves? It is possible, isn't it?

[jdobbin]

Therein lies the problem. Dion and his team should have trumpeted a renewal of the Liberal Party and not championed the record of the Chretien/Martin Liberals. An opportunity lost, IMO.

I can only point to what people said about Harper even weeks before the election. They didn't think much of him not did they think much of his party. At the time of the election call, both the Liberals and Liberal leader were ahead. The Liberals ran a terrible campaign which they still might have won had it not been for the RCMP announcement a couple of weeks before the vote.

Dion will have some victories in March with the by-elections if he lets the budget pass. He'll have to figure out if it is worth it to be seen as passing the Tory budget.

A majority has been obtained before by the Liberals with less than 40%. Why would the Conservatives not pull it off themselves? It is possible, isn't it?

No pollster I've seen or read as indicated it. The Tory chief adviser wrote a very detailed column for the National Post or Globe which was posted here last year. He gave the exact figures needed to win. He said if the Tories have over 40%, they win. If they are more than 11 points ahead in the polls, they win. Tom Flanagan said it was a numbers game. We haven't seen those numbers for the Tories or if they get close to them, they seem to be contradicted as they were today by polls taken in the same timeframe.

If Harper truly thought he had the winning numbers, he would be merciless and say that he would have a confidence motion on every piece of legislation to hasten an election. It would appear that he didn't want an election on Afghanistan. It is doubtful he will go to the polls on the Senate when they probably will ultimately vote for it.

The Liberals themselves don't seem to want an election on something like the budget. They are probably looking to pick up momentum from the be-election vote.

[jdobbin]

I agree. The Libs and Tories are bouncing around the mid-30s. All the results are within the margin of error.

And now the third poll this week from Angus Reid:

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/305943

OTTAWA–Even after two years in power, Canadians appear to be unwilling to hand Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives a majority government, according to a Toronto Star/Angus Reid poll released today.

"Two years later the report card is in – Stephen Harper you fail," pollster Angus Reid said in an interview after releasing the poll showing the Conservatives with a slight lead over the opposition Liberals.

The online poll shows the Conservatives with 34 per cent of the decided vote, the Liberals with 31 per cent, the New Democrats with 17, the Bloc Québécois with 9, and the Green party with 8.

Support for the Conservatives, who won a minority government in the Jan. 23, 2006, election, has increased by one percentage point since the last Angus Reid poll in December, while the Liberals climbed by three percentage points.

The online poll of 1,082 adult Canadians, conducted Feb. 15 to 18, has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

I still don't think much of online polls but this is another poll the basically states a statistical tie.

It also goes on to note that despite Dion's negative leadership numbers, Harper is also weighted down by his own numbers.

"Stephen Harper has had the opportunity to emerge as the putative prime minister of Canada. He's got a very weak opponent in Stéphane Dion," Reid said. "But he still has a terrible approval rating, terrible numbers in terms of momentum and he is doing terribly on the question of who would be best prime minister."

[LastViking]

Today's Ipsos poll has been added to the february seat projections at Trendlines. Interesting blog comment accompanies:

"While it is clear today that the Budget will get a pass, the Liberal Party & many Canadians are troubled by the Conservatives unwillingness in Debate to commit to withdraw from "search & destroy" combat missions in Afghanistan. The Liberal amendment is clear in its intent to provide a framework for a change in the mission that prohibits combat except when related to immediate security. The Conservatives seem intent on continuing maneuvers with the USA, Britain & Netherlands after February 2009. One of the Parties has to blink. This could precipitate the Election.

The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority if he waits out the Harper mandate."

http://trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

Edited February 27, 2008 by LastViking

[MontyBurns]

Today's Ipsos poll has been added to the february seat projections at Trendlines. Interesting blog comment accompanies:

"While it is clear today that the Budget will get a pass, the Liberal Party & many Canadians are troubled by the Conservatives unwillingness in Debate to commit to withdraw from "search & destroy" combat missions in Afghanistan. The Liberal amendment is clear in its intent to provide a framework for a change in the mission that prohibits combat except when related to immediate security. The Conservatives seem intent on continuing maneuvers with the USA, Britain & Netherlands after February 2009. One of the Parties has to blink. This could precipitate the Election.

The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority if he waits out the Harper mandate."

http://trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

This trendlines stuff seems like a pile of crap. The momentum is clearly in the Conservatives favour but a Liberal majority is imminent. Whatever!

[jdobbin]

Looks like Flaherty's battle with McGuinty has not been a winner for the Tories.

http://www.640toronto.com/news/metro.cfm?c...mp;gm=metro.cfm

Results of a new poll released Friday suggest Premier Dalton McGuinty has a lot of public support when it comes to his ongoing feud against federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

McGuinty has recently accused Flaherty of concentrating too much on the oil-and-gas sector and leaving troubled manufacturers out in the cold. The Harris-Decima survey shows 47 per cent of Canadians sided with McGuinty, with only 27 per cent backing Flaherty.

McGuinty's level of support was even higher in Ontario, where the poll found 56 per cent support for the premier and 25 per cent for the minister.

He was at it again today too. Maybe Flaherty should stick to his own knitting. If he wants to run the province of Ontario, he should resign and run in the next provincial election.

[M.Dancer]

Looks like Flaherty's battle with McGuinty has not been a winner for the Tories.

http://www.640toronto.com/news/metro.cfm?c...mp;gm=metro.cfm

He was at it again today too. Maybe Flaherty should stick to his own knitting. If he wants to run the province of Ontario, he should resign and run in the next provincial election.

He would certainly do better than Tory.

[Shakeyhands]

He would certainly do better than Tory.

With the Conservative base perhaps. Certainly not with the rest of us who remember his run with Harris and the mess it landed us in.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Decima:

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...ho2hjqI8jxbm6Qw

A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have taken a beating in public opinion over the past week, but the opposition Liberals have done nothing to capitalize.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey had the two major parties in a statistical dead heat, with the Tories nominally ahead of the Liberals 31-30.

The governing party had been as high as 35 per cent in a previous Harris-Decima poll - albeit only two points higher than the Liberals - but some other pollsters had the Tory lead as wide as seven percentage points.

The poll of more than 1,000 respondents was taken over the last weekend. The survey followed a federal budget, and began just after news broke of the Chuck Cadman bribery allegations and in the midst of a war of words between Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty.

While the Tories and Liberals appeared stalled, the NDP at 17 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at eight per cent nationally were not big beneficiaries.

Looks like we'd have a repeat of the last election once again.