Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

... the opposition parties have only recently reminded Canadians that Harper wanted not only to go to war over Iraq but actually went on US television in 2003, a very unCanadian and unpatriotic action, to inform Americans that the Canadian government should have joined Bush in invading Iraq.

An unrepentant neocon that took every opportunity to endear himself to Washington Republicans. Remember the 2006 election, when he finished every major speech with "God Bless Canada"? Now with American financial contagion infecting the globe, our PM wants nothing to do with the lame ducks and dinosaurs in the American capital. I guess the imperative of reelection trumps ideology.

Dion's focus on the economy has helped Dion but I think he should have pointed out Harper's similarities to Bush long ago. Duceppe has no problem successfully employing this strategy but Dion is far too much of a gentleman in failing to remind Canadians that Harper is a right wing, out-of-control spending, social conservative.

I've heard several analysts use the word decency to describe Dion but never heard it once regarding Harper. Our PM, on the other hand, is easily described as ruthless.

There is still a chance that Harper can turn things around if he comes up with an economic plan...

Sure, anything is possible. I doubt his program speech today put brakes on opposition momentum. My reading of the tea leaves says Harper & Co. will soon be occupying the opposition benches.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I am very pleased with the direction of public opinion. If in fact the current poll is translated into reality on election day, we may see a new government. If Dion can form a government without an NDP coalition I will suggest that he becomes a one shot wonder and losses at the first chance the Conservatives can find to oust him. On the other hand, should the Liberals in fact be in possession of the necessary faculties required to hold the reins of power in the current political environment then the NDP will find themselves as part of the government in fact not merely as a support function during legislative effort.

A coalition government, a group of individuals working across party lines would be a first in my memory within this nation. That is what I desire, a multi-partisan effort at governance.

[capricorn]

On the other hand, should the Liberals in fact be in possession of the necessary faculties required to hold the reins of power in the current political environment then the NDP will find themselves as part of the government in fact not merely as a support function during legislative effort.

If the Liberals win, the NDP's viability as an alternative will very quickly come to an end. The Liberals have turned so far left, it is looking more and more like the NDP. I think this is due mostly to Bob Rae who is still a socialist at heart. I do believe the Liberals and the NDP should amalgamate. The demise of the NDP would move us closer to a two party system, something I think would be healthy for this country. What can you say about a government being elected with 36% support? The electorate is partitioned into too many factions and as a result, Canadians are not properly represented in our Parliament. That's why government today gets very little work done and the House of Commons operates on the level of a zoo.

[tango]

If the Liberals win, the NDP's viability as an alternative will very quickly come to an end. The Liberals have turned so far left, it is looking more and more like the NDP. I think this is due mostly to Bob Rae who is still a socialist at heart. I do believe the Liberals and the NDP should amalgamate. The demise of the NDP would move us closer to a two party system, something I think would be healthy for this country. What can you say about a government being elected with 36% support? The electorate is partitioned into too many factions and as a result, Canadians are not properly represented in our Parliament. That's why government today gets very little work done and the House of Commons operates on the level of a zoo.

Hurrah!!! What a relief. So glad to see Harper take a dive. I hope the party gets rid of him and elects Jim Prentice.

I think it is becoming clearer that Canadians are not interested in having a dictator/majority. What we want to for the "zoo" to stop acting like they have conduct disorders and start acting like the government, start working together in the interests of Canadians instead of in their own political interests.

In short, I'd like to see them behave the way students are expected to behave - cooperatively.

I'd like to see them behave the way employers want their employees to behave - teamwork

I don't think we can afford this bloated system of self interest any longer.

[tango]

Speaking of self-interest ...

The document - entitled "The True North Strong and Free: Stephen Harper's plan (???) for Canadians" - is a glossy, 41-page booklet printed in huge blue font that includes 22 colour photos of Harper.

The man does not even try to camouflage that this is a one man government!!

I rest my case.

Edited October 8, 2008 by tango

[capricorn]

Hurrah!!! What a relief. So glad to see Harper take a dive. I hope the party gets rid of him and elects Jim Prentice.

I must say I find this to be a truly bizarre response to my observations. Oh well, whatever turns you on.

[tango]

I must say I find this to be a truly bizarre response to my observations. Oh well, whatever turns you on.

I responded to the "zoo" comment.

[capricorn]

Speaking of self-interest ...

The document - entitled "The True North Strong and Free: Stephen Harper's plan (???) for Canadians" - is a glossy, 41-page booklet printed in huge blue font that includes 22 colour photos of Harper.

The man does not even try to camouflage that this is a one man government!!

I rest my case.

Believe me when I say this. You, tango, are not the one Harper is trying to impress. The platform was packaged to appeal to mainstream Canadians, not rabid partisans.

[Vancouver King]

Believe me when I say this. You, tango, are not the one Harper is trying to impress. The platform was packaged to appeal to mainstream Canadians, not rabid partisans.

So you believe the platform document represents a knockout punch?

[PoliticalCitizen]

Speaking of self-interest ...

The document - entitled "The True North Strong and Free: Stephen Harper's plan (???) for Canadians" - is a glossy, 41-page booklet printed in huge blue font that includes 22 colour photos of Harper.

The man does not even try to camouflage that this is a one man government!!

I rest my case.

Does it include a spread?

[capricorn]

So you believe the platform document represents a knockout punch?

I never said that. But since you appear to want my opinion, I will say that as a result of the platform's release, I think the polls will show an increase in support for the Conservatives in the coming days. I also think this support will mostly come from the present 15-20% of undecided voters.

(I thought a knockout punch, politically speaking, is something that happens in political debates. I may be wrong.)

[myata]

A coalition government, a group of individuals working across party lines would be a first in my memory within this nation. That is what I desire, a multi-partisan effort at governance.

I'd subscribe to that. At least three extremely important tasks: economy, environment and the electoral reform need concerted effort of all progressive forces in the country.

[Vancouver King]

I also think this support will mostly come from the present 15-20% of undecided voters.

Why will this election be the exception to the rule that says undecided voters breakdown exactly as decided voters do?

[capricorn]

Why will this election be the exception to the rule that says undecided voters breakdown exactly as decided voters do?

If that is the case, then the Conservatives would pick up around 35% of undecided voters as things stand now. I think it's too soon to tell how well the platform will be received. For one thing, the media and politicos haven't yet finished looking for holes to poke at. What they come up with will have some impact.

[PoliticalCitizen]

(I thought a knockout punch, politically speaking, is something that happens in political debates. I may be wrong.)

Apparently Conservatives think it's good to throw punches AFTER the fight.

But the only ones they can knock out now is themselves

[Vancouver King]

If that is the case, then the Conservatives would pick up around 35% of undecided voters as things stand now. I think it's too soon to tell how well the platform will be received. For one thing, the media and politicos haven't yet finished looking for holes to poke at. What they come up with will have some impact.

35% by Oct 14th might be a bit generous for a final Tory total but I agree that a hard core one third of voters are going to support Tories. However, we have had 5 days of polls showing steady increases in Liberal support, now over 30% and rising. This has been confirmed by several pollsters so it now constitutes a trend. This is Harper's first problem - opposition momentum.

A completely different additional factor and one that is ominous for CPC fortunes is this: NDP and Green support levels, always suspected as soft at the best of times, now begin to melt through strategic voting overwhelmingly into the Liberal column. It is tough to sometimes phrase it this way but in many respects these minor parties run parking lots - with the Liberals taking the lion share of those that drive away.

This will probably be a very close election, but remember it was not supposed to be close, this vote was the first step in Harper's strategy of literally eliminating the Liberal party from federal politics.

[capricorn]

This will probably be a very close election, but remember it was not supposed to be close,

Nothing leads me to beleive that common wisdom among the informed crowd was that Harper would win a majority. I certainly never said so. I am merely an interested observer who is a committed Conservative supporter watching developments unfold. On the other hand, dobbin, who is much more clued in on politics than I am, predicted the decimation of the Liberals with this election. That said, I now believe Harper will win another minority government.

this vote was the first step in Harper's strategy of literally eliminating the Liberal party from federal politics.

Harper never underestimated the resilience of the Liberal brand. Never did he say he would be at the helm when the Liberal Party finally goes down. He sees it as an incremental process and the first step is to bankrupt the party. Losing this election will send the Liberals into a frenzied leadership race they cannot afford and whose outcome can only further divide the party. IOW, when the party finally hits a brick wall, it will not just be Harper's doing.

[Visionseeker]

I never said that. But since you appear to want my opinion, I will say that as a result of the platform's release, I think the polls will show an increase in support for the Conservatives in the coming days. I also think this support will mostly come from the present 15-20% of undecided voters.

(I thought a knockout punch, politically speaking, is something that happens in political debates. I may be wrong.)

The self-administered knock-out punch came at the opening of the English language debate when Harper laid into Dion for having "panicked". By this first move, Harper came across as reality avoidant and merely reinforced a sense that he's out of touch.

The CPC will still win. But their minority will be significantly weaker. Harper will have lost credibility and his total control over the party.

Prediction: Dion outlasts Harper as a party leader

[jdobbin]

Nothing leads me to beleive that common wisdom among the informed crowd was that Harper would win a majority. I certainly never said so. I am merely an interested observer who is a committed Conservative supporter watching developments unfold. On the other hand, dobbin, who is much more clued in on politics than I am, predicted the decimation of the Liberals with this election. That said, I now believe Harper will win another minority government.

The trend certainly was a train wreck to the basement for the Liberals. I mentioned three possible speed bumps.

1. A jump right out the gate for the Liberals. It didn't happen. They didn't get their plane off the ground and when it did, it almost crashed.

2. Duceppe. Harper didn't go after Duceppe as much as he went after Dion. It left him open to Duceppe's attack which helped the BQ recover from a few poor weeks at the start.

3. The unexpected. I said something like a raid on Tory headquarters. I thought it unlikely. I also thought the economy was going to hold off as a defining issue. Boy, was I wrong. Harper is on the defensive about it and why not? Each day seems a new low in the market and more economists are predicting a recession. The effect is like a dozen raids by the RCMP. This time though it is a raid on the credibility of Harper. He said three weeks ago that he thought the worst of downturn was over. Ouch.

There is still a reckoning for the Liberals. They have let the NDP get too close and let the Tories get too far and almost lost the entire Liberal party to poor leadership, finances, organization and ideas. Can Dion survive? I'd say only if he salvages something. He might need to make some sort of agreement with his former rivals for substantial roles, his departure at some future date and a detente to get the party back on track.

Edited October 8, 2008 by jdobbin

[independent]

I never said that. But since you appear to want my opinion, I will say that as a result of the platform's release, I think the polls will show an increase in support for the Conservatives in the coming days. I also think this support will mostly come from the present 15-20% of undecided voters.

(I thought a knockout punch, politically speaking, is something that happens in political debates. I may be wrong.)

Only 14% of the undecided voters pick the conservatives as their second choice. Not a lot of room for improvement for the Tories.

[Wild Bill]

The self-administered knock-out punch came at the opening of the English language debate when Harper laid into Dion for having "panicked". By this first move, Harper came across as reality avoidant and merely reinforced a sense that he's out of touch.

The CPC will still win. But their minority will be significantly weaker. Harper will have lost credibility and his total control over the party.

Prediction: Dion outlasts Harper as a party leader

Your posts make me curious. Do you not consider the tattered state of Liberal finances to be important?

In other words, do you not believe that they could go bankrupt?

[capricorn]

Prediction: Dion outlasts Harper as a party leader

I don't think Harper delivering another minority will trigger a leadership review. Conservatives are savvy enough to realize that in the present political climate in this country, a majority is practically unachievable. If Harper loses the election, as a Conservative I would welcome a leadership review.

As for Dion, an election loss will sharpen the appetites (and knives) of leadership hopefuls. Especially so for Iggy and Rae who are getting on in age and won't want to hang around for too many more years playing second fiddle.

Therefore, unless Dion pulls off a miracle, I think he's done as leader. Whether he steps down following the loss remains a question. He is probably so buoyed by his climb in the polls, he might become obstinate and hang on to the leadership. This would be very negative for the party.

[Vancouver King]

The fat lady has cued the orchestra.

This election is all but over.

All hail Prime Minister Dion.

Today's Harris-Decima:

CPC 31%

Libs 27

NDP 20

Grn 12

Bloc 8

[Smallc]

The fat lady has cued the orchestra.

This election is all but over.

All hail Prime Minister Dion.

Today's Harris-Decima:

CPC 31%

Libs 27

NDP 20

Grn 12

Bloc 8

Best we not count our chickens....

[Vancouver King]

Best we not count our chickens....

this chicken is plucked and counted. Tory popularity is in free fall and Dion is up to the task of bringing this puppy home.