Canadian Political Polls

[Oleg Bach]

Polls=Pander

[Vancouver King]

It's official: Goodbye majority. Conservatives fall behind their 2006 election night showing. What a difference a plagarized speech and/or debate makes.

CPC 35%

Libs 30

NDP 18

Grn 10

Bloc 8

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-October-2008E.pdf

[Vancouver King]

double post

Edited October 3, 2008 by Vancouver King

[jdobbin]

No, no. It's not the rural vote I'm looking at (although, it is strong). It's FARMERS specifically. You know, the guys who the CWB thing most affects?

Harper could have changed the rules on the Wheat Board if he followed the legislation. Why he didn't, I'll never know. When the courts slap you down three times on acting unilaterally and say to introduce legislation, you would think they'd get it.

The Tories falsely promise a dual market though. Once the monopoly is gone, the CWB becomes an illegal state trading enterprise under WTO rules. Farmer had better hope that the market does well for them in grain. Seems many have forgotten why the Board was set up in the first place.

[jdobbin]

It's official: Goodbye majority. Conservatives fall behind their 2006 election night showing. What a difference a plagarized speech and/or debate makes.

Will have to see how the other polls ranks things. Decima keeps indicating that Harper is pulling ahead.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Will have to see how the other polls ranks things. Decima keeps indicating that Harper is pulling ahead.

I'll be laughing if it proves to be a flip-flop like it did for Conservatives in Ontario with Tory bragging about majority but in the end not winning even his own seat and giving Liberals a bigger majority than they had before.

[Vancouver King]

Will have to see how the other polls ranks things. Decima keeps indicating that Harper is pulling ahead.

That implies all pollsters are created equal. Until they are dethroned by another firm with greater accuracy I will base my opinions on information from proven winners.

You called the election weeks ago as annihilation of Dion's Liberals. I'll make my prediction today: Another Tory minority with Dion resigning and Ignatieff taking over his leadership.

[independent]

Undecided has been growing.

When asked secondary choices conservatives are seldom the responsive so they are unlikely too gain ground.

The green party and NDP have gained support. But in the end a lot of people vote too make sure a certain party does not get in.

The conservatives are starting to lose a lot of ground in Quebec of late and seem more concerned at attacking the Liberals instead of going after the PQ.

[Vancouver King]

Undecided has been growing.

The conservatives are starting to lose a lot of ground in Quebec of late and seem more concerned at attacking the Liberals instead of going after the PQ.

I have said many times this election will be won or lost in Quebec. This latest poll shows Harper's

party is now in 3rd place there. Ontario remains the only other region with seat numbers available to Conservatives to form a majority without gains in Quebec. This poll shows the CPC now down to an Ontario dead heat with Liberals.

What will be the fallout if we have a near identical outcome to January, 2006?

[fellowtraveller]

What will be the fallout if we have a near identical outcome to January, 2006?

Harpeer will govern as if he has a clear majority and challenge the Oppopsition to play ball or vote him down.

He should make every vote a confidence vote.

[fellowtraveller]

What will be the fallout if we have a near identical outcome to January, 2006?

Harpeer will govern as if he has a clear majority and challenge the Oppopsition to play ball or vote him down.

He should make every vote a confidence vote.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Harpeer will govern as if he has a clear majority and challenge the Oppopsition to play ball or vote him down.

He should make every vote a confidence vote.

Harper has CLEARLY PROVEN that he cannot make concessions and compromises.

Liberals should get some guts and vote him down on EVERY confidence vote until Canadians get sick and tired of him trying to dictate with a minority and boot him out of the office.

[OddSox]

Harper has CLEARLY PROVEN that he cannot make concessions and compromises.

Liberals should get some guts and vote him down on EVERY confidence vote until Canadians get sick and tired of him trying to dictate with a minority and boot him out of the office.

Why should he make any concessions? He managed just fine with a minority government for a near-record length of time. If the opposition is that ineffective, it's because that is the will of the people. (in case you don't get it - the Liberals could have pulled the plug at any time, assuming they thought they had a mandate to do so - obviously they did not.)

[PoliticalCitizen]

Why should he make any concessions? He managed just fine with a minority government for a near-record length of time. If the opposition is that ineffective, it's because that is the will of the people. (in case you don't get it - the Liberals could have pulled the plug at any time, assuming they thought they had a mandate to do so - obviously they did not.)

Just because Liberals were afraid of an election doesn't mean Harper was good at ruling with a minority - he handled it with his signature bully approach: "Don't like it? Screw You! Let's fight if you have balls!"

The high-ranking members of Conservative party that are close to Harper know his real face very well - rude, authoritarian, with little patience for dissent - quite unlike the cuddly fluffy image his strategists tried painting for the campaign.

Edited October 4, 2008 by PoliticalCitizen

[jdobbin]

Harpeer will govern as if he has a clear majority and challenge the Oppopsition to play ball or vote him down.

He should make every vote a confidence vote.

And the next version of the Liberals should vote down every confidence vote if the government plays that sort of game. Perhaps then, the GG will ask the Opposition if they can form a government (which is in purview to ask).

[jdobbin]

I have said many times this election will be won or lost in Quebec.

I also said that the Bloc could not be counted out.

Latest Ipsos poll:

A steep drop in Conservative support among Quebecers appears to have stalled Stephen Harper's march toward a majority, according to a new poll.

The Conservatives have slipped well behind the Bloc Quebecois, shows the Ipsos Reid poll, commissioned by Canwest News Service and Global National. Since last week, the Bloc has surged eight per cent to 40 per cent in support among decided voters, while the Conservatives have fallen six points to third place, at 18 per cent.

The situation elsewhere for the Liberals is grim.

Nationally, 37 per cent of respondents support the Conservatives, down two points from a week earlier. The Liberals are next with 23 per cent, unchanged from the week before, followed by the NDP at 19 per cent, up a point, and the Green party at 10 per cent, down a point.

Anything over an 11 point lead over the next party makes it possible to elect a majority. Tory vote support though is too heavily placed in ridings they've already won. They can't afford for their own support to drop and migrate to other parties.

Edited October 3, 2008 by jdobbin

[OddSox]

Just because Liberals were afraid of an election doesn't mean Harper was good at ruling with a minority - he handled it with his signature bully approach: "Don't like it? Srew You! Let's fight if you have balls!"

The high-ranking members of Conservative party that are close to Harper know his real face very well - rude, authoritarian, with little patience for dissent - quite unlike the cuddly fluffy image his strategists tried painting for the campaign.

Huh? Either he was wrong - in which case you vote against him, or he was right. Pretty simple.

[Visionseeker]

That implies all pollsters are created equal. Until they are dethroned by another firm with greater accuracy I will base my opinions on information from proven winners.

You called the election weeks ago as annihilation of Dion's Liberals. I'll make my prediction today: Another Tory minority with Dion resigning and Ignatieff taking over his leadership.

If Dion underperforms 2006, he is done. But a simple hand-over to Ignatieff won't be possible b/c the Rae camp will have something to say about it. And the Liberals will engage in their 3rd civil war in 3 decades.

But if Dion matches or improves on 2006 and holds Harper to a minority, it will be because he seriously rehabilitated the Liberal brand in Quebec (it certainly won't be from turning the prairies red, that's for sure).

Nanos has the Libs jumping 6 points nationally in one day (from 24 to 30%) and 7 points in Quebec at the apparent expense of both the Bloc and Conservatives. Now, if these number are an accurate representation, then it's a good bet that Dion's French language debate performance has seriously strengthened his image in his home province. If this boost has any momentum, watch the "Kumbya" vote kick-in (i.e. Ontario and maritime voters who instinctively vote for the federalist party that is most popular in Quebec.

That's not a scenario that has Dion stepping down. Rather, his hold on the party would be dramatically strengthened.

We'll have to wait and see if Nanos' results are repeated elsewhere. I've been told that another firm has opted to hold a release and over- sample because they lacked confidence in their results - a polling behaviour sometimes adopted when the initial numbers dramatically defy conventional wisdom.

[Vancouver King]

If Dion underperforms 2006, he is done. But a simple hand-over to Ignatieff won't be possible b/c the Rae camp will have something to say about it. And the Liberals will engage in their 3rd civil war in 3 decades.

I've heard two analysts on CBC say Dion is running for the prime ministers job and would resign if faced with anything less. This will unleash another leadership race within the party and it is a safe bet Liberals will opt for a proven product next time around - Ignatieff.

Nanos has the Libs jumping 6 points nationally in one day (from 24 to 30%) and 7 points in Quebec at the apparent expense of both the Bloc and Conservatives.

Actually Nanos has had the Liberals at 26% since last month, todays new numbers show a 4% increase over last months figure, not 6%. The "Kumbya" vote is already morphing. The same

poll shows a dead heat in Ontario, not conducive to sufficient extra CPC seats there to offset the stalemate in Quebec. The landscape has minority govt written all over it. This is all happening, of course, with barely 10 days left in the campaign.

We'll have to wait and see if Nanos' results are repeated elsewhere. I've been told that another firm has opted to hold a release and over- sample because they lacked confidence in their results - a polling behaviour sometimes adopted when the initial numbers dramatically defy conventional wisdom.

It is interesting to view the Ipsos poll also released today and posted above. In 2006, with only 3 days left to election day, Ipsos had the Liberals 4% down from their actual election total days later. If the same methodology (bias?) exists in its results today, add that same 4% and you essentially have confirmation of the newest Nanos numbers.

[cybercoma]

I would strongly consider voting Liberal if Ignatieff were the leader.

[Visionseeker]

I've heard two analysts on CBC say Dion is running for the prime ministers job and would resign if faced with anything less. This will unleash another leadership race within the party and it is a safe bet Liberals will opt for a proven product next time around - Ignatieff.

Take that as nothing more than a "I'm in this to win" pronouncement. If Dion improves substantively on 2006, he’ll fight to stick around. If he has rejuvenated the party’s fortunes in Quebec through such improvement, there will be little credible talk of his resignation.

Should Dion fail, he will be pushed aside and the party will choose Iggy, Rae or someone else in yet another costly leadership contest. There will be no coronation.

Actually Nanos has had the Liberals at 26% since last month, todays new numbers show a 4% increase over last months figure, not 6%.

It is 4%, my bad. Harris-Decima had the Libs at 24%, not Nik.

The "Kumbya" vote is already morphing. The same poll shows a dead heat in Ontario, not conducive to sufficient extra CPC seats there to offset the stalemate in Quebec. The landscape has minority govt written all over it. This is all happening, of course, with barely 10 days left in the campaign.

Indeed, if Nik's numbers are real, Harper is getting further and further from majority territory.

It is interesting to view the Ipsos poll also released today and posted above. In 2006, with only 3 days left to election day, Ipsos had the Liberals 4% down from their actual election total days later. If the same methodology (bias?) exists in its results today, add that same 4% and you essentially have confirmation of the newest Nanos numbers.

Ipsos was a consistent outlier in 2004. They tended to favour the Conservatives some 2 to 3 points more than any other outfit throughout the campaign. Nanos and one of the firms beginning with the letter "E" (I'm not being cryptic here, just can't remember which firm it was) tended to capture the reality a little better. Ipsos' problem might very well have been bias (where is Darrell Bricker advising lately?), but I suspect they just had thier demographics model wrong.

Edited October 4, 2008 by Visionseeker

[independent]

I would strongly consider voting Liberal if Ignatieff were the leader.

Liberals under Dion are running as a team. I am sure Ignatieff has a big part in the decision making. Those that speak French seem to have a much higher regard for Dion. He did lose some support in Quebec because he stood up too them when he was a minister of interprovincial affairs. That is usually considered a good thing by the rest of canada.

[independent]

Election predictor with vote splitting.

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predic...2C1%3A0&r=0

A Liberal - NDP Coalition government?

Edited October 4, 2008 by independent

[PoliticalCitizen]

Huh? Either he was wrong - in which case you vote against him, or he was right. Pretty simple.

It's not about a particular decision. It's his attitude that's unacceptable.

[fellowtraveller]

It's not about a particular decision. It's his attitude that's unacceptable.

Attitude?

Why should I care about that?

What I care about is policy and legislation. I have absolutely no need to get any kind of warm and fuzzy feeling from any politician.

I vote fpor leadership, and expect whomever is elected to get on with what they said they would do. If the loyal Opposition does not agree with that course, they have a simple choice. Either dump the govt in a confidence vote, or get out of the way. Dion is now reaping the consequences of taking a third path, which is to whine about what Harper was doing, but failing to act on his stated beliefs in any kind of consistent manner. Goodbye credibility, hello jellyfish.