Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/29529...e_surge_in_2008

Many adults in Canada believe their national currency will not attain a record high this year, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies. 70 per cent of respondents think it is unlikely that the Canadian dollar will rise to $1.25 U.S. in 2008.

In addition, Canadians are evenly divided on the likelihood of having a new prime minister this year, while only 14 per cent believe their country will be ranked number one in the United Nations Human Development Index.

It looks like half of Canadian expect there to be a new prime minister this year. Hmm, I wonder who they think will replace the old prime minister?

[Michael Bluth]

It looks like half of Canadian expect there to be a new prime minister this year. Hmm, I wonder who they think will replace the old prime minister?

Wow, if that means half of Canadians expect to vote for Harper then we are looking at a record majority! Bring on the election.

[margrace]

Wow, if that means half of Canadians expect to vote for Harper then we are looking at a record majority! Bring on the election.

Hope springs eternal for the paid sheeples

[BubberMiley]

Bring on the election.

Seeing as Harper has lost 25% of his support in the past few weeks, going from 40 to 30 in the polls, I have to agree.

[Michael Bluth]

Seeing as Harper has lost 25% of his support in the past few weeks, going from 40 to 30 in the polls, I have to agree.

He was at 40% just a few weeks ago?

Hey, we already have a resident poll misrepresenter, talk to him if you want his job but I don't think he'll give it up easily.

[BubberMiley]

He was at 40% just a few weeks ago?

Hey, we already have a resident poll misrepresenter, talk to him if you want his job but I don't think he'll give it up easily.

Ipsos-Reid had them at 39 and 42 in November. I think it would be safe to round that off to 40, at least among reasonable people. Amazing how they've fallen so far, so fast. Why do you suppose that is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_federal_election

[sharkman]

Yet another poll thread. *yawn*

[BubberMiley]

Yet another poll thread. *yawn*

I think the same things about the Muslims/immigrants/globalwarmingfraud threads. I have the perfect solution though. I don't read them.

But I guess if the polls weren't so devastating for the CPC, you'd be more interested.

[jdobbin]

Yet another poll thread. *yawn*

And yet you are here with bells on. Welcome to 2008 where the country is split on whether there will be a new prime minister.

Edited January 3, 2008 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid commentary in today's National Post.

No Tory majority this year.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=211065

The poll questioned Canadians on the political horizon for 2008 by asking them if they thought there was a good or bad chance of something happening. Three-quarters (73%) believe there is a good chance that there will be a federal election called in Canada this year and two-thirds (63%) believe that Mr. Harper will be re-elected.

Only 31% predicted that there is a good chance he will win a majority.

[jdobbin]

Hope springs eternal for the paid sheeples

I think that is the view in Alberta according to Ipsos. Quebecers are feeling a Tory majority is less likely. Canadians as a whole don't feel the Tories will win a majority.

[jdobbin]

Seeing as Harper has lost 25% of his support in the past few weeks, going from 40 to 30 in the polls, I have to agree.

It has been a quick climb down to statistical tie with the Liberals. Decima even has the Liberals at 2 points higher than the Tories.

[Michael Bluth]

Ipsos-Reid had them at 39 and 42 in November. I think it would be safe to round that off to 40, at least among reasonable people. Amazing how they've fallen so far, so fast. Why do you suppose that is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_federal_election

Try comparing apples to apples. Ipsos Reid had the Conservatives at 35% in December. A four point drop from the previous poll Ipsos did.

1 point outside the margin of error is not "so far, so fast" to a reasonable observer.

Your painful attempt at misreprsenting the polls was refuted in three sentences, why do you suppose it was so easy to do?

[jdobbin]

I think the same things about the Muslims/immigrants/globalwarmingfraud threads. I have the perfect solution though. I don't read them.

Perhaps in 2008 there will be fewer of them since one of the main contributers to one of those threads has been banned and the other has had their posting routine curtailed.

I noticed there wasn't a lot of commentary from the Tory crowd here that that regularly rails against immigration over Harper's "I love immigrants" speech just before the holidays.

[Topaz]

As far as Harper's supporters go, he may have lost some of the military stationed here in Canada. The military is cutting living allowances for some and giving those in Alberta a rise to $5oo. www.bourque.org There also a million people in the west who have to be on the voting list , mostly in Sask., BC. I really don't think Harper will get a majority government.

[blueblood]

Perhaps in 2008 there will be fewer of them since one of the main contributers to one of those threads has been banned and the other has had their posting routine curtailed.

I noticed there wasn't a lot of commentary from the Tory crowd here that that regularly rails against immigration over Harper's "I love immigrants" speech just before the holidays.

ha ha. Those blasted zealots. That's why we won't see a Tory majority. Maybe in 2008 Harper would take shots at the far right zealots. Sure those votes stay home at election time, but they live in ridings where he already has it in the bag already. Maybe he can get some moderates with his fiscal policy...

And i'm not wishing to discuss ethanol in this thread

Shoot if it weren't for that muslim doctor in town, I'd be in considerable hot water if I got hurt on the job.

[Michael Bluth]

And yet you are here with bells on. Welcome to 2008 where the country is split on whether there will be a new prime minister.

While at the same time 2/3rds of the country think Harper will be re-elected.

From the NP poll 7 posts ago...

Three-quarters (73%) believe there is a good chance that there will be a federal election called in Canada this year and two-thirds (63%) believe that Mr. Harper will be re-elected.

Maybe that 13% of the population really thinks there will be two elections this year.

[jdobbin]

Maybe he can get some moderates with his fiscal policy...

His fiscal policy of spending 25% more since they have been elected is starting to become a problem.

[blueblood]

His fiscal policy of spending 25% more since they have been elected is starting to become a problem.

Maybe he is fishing for votes, I don't know.

[jdobbin]

Maybe he is fishing for votes, I don't know.

Probably. However, he is not doing a very good job of it give the statistical tie they are in right now.

[Alexandra]

The Ipsos Reid News (in total) directly from it's website reads as follows: The headlines are blue and in capitals.

Political Predictions for 2008

Three Quarters (73%) Believe There’s a Good Chance for a Federal Election, and Two Thirds (63%) Believe Harper Will Be Re-elected.

January 3, 2008

Contact John Wright at 416.324.2900

Category Ipsos Reid/Global/National Post , Politics & Elections (National) , Societal Issues, Foreign Affairs & Policy

Location Canada

Toronto, ON –Looking ahead to 2008, there are lots of things in politics that could be chanced -- and so, we asked Canadians what they thought was a good or bad chance of something happening. The results of the new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of CanWest News Service and Global Television are in, and here are Canadian’s prognostications:

Three quarters (73%) believe that there is a good chance that there will be a federal election called in Canada in 2008, and two thirds (63%) believe that Stephen Harper will be re-elected. However, only 31% believe that he will get a majority government.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3779

[jdobbin]

Three Quarters (73%) Believe There’s a Good Chance for a Federal Election, and Two Thirds (63%) Believe Harper Will Be Re-elected.

Think I've said for two plus years that Harper would be re-elected with a minority. Some of the right in these forums are convinced that the poll numbers released in the last weeks mean massive Conservative majority.

[Michael Bluth]

Think I've said for two plus years that Harper would be re-elected with a minority. Some of the right in these forums are convinced that the poll numbers released in the last weeks mean massive Conservative majority.

Hmmm, nine hours ago you were spouting some misrepresentation about Canadians thinking there will be a new PM. Whatever could have changed your view so quickly.

Oh right you 'won't read' this post.

Just quote somebody else in your clever response. No doubt some attempt at making an excuse for Dion's impotent leadership.

[jdobbin]

Latest finding from a poll Decima commissioned in December.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/minority_parl_poll

A new poll suggests Canadian voters are comfortable with the idea of a minority federal government and hesitant to give any party a commanding majority.

The Canadian Press Harris/Decima survey asked respondents to choose the best way to distribute seats in a hypothetical Parliament.

The results, on average, gave 36 per cent of the seats to the Liberals, 31 to the Conservatives, 15 to the NDP, 10 to the Bloc Quebecois and eight to the Green party.

The Liberals, rather than the Tories, came out ahead - largely because the Grits were a more palatable alternative for NDP and Green voters. By contrast, the Conservatives were a more acceptable second choice for Bloc voters.

[capricorn]

For posterity, I am posting the following poll here. It is the first of its kind conducted by a major pollster. Overall, it is favourable to the present Conservative government. The underlying finding is that Canadians are generally content with their politicians and with the direction the country is headed.

On the economy:

"There was also a high degree of optimism for the economy in the year ahead, with almost half expecting it to get stronger in 2008, while only 19.8 percent said it will get weaker."

On the Conservatives and the PM:

"As for the Conservative government and Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, Nanos says that while people don't have "a warm fuzzy feeling or inspirational feeling" for Harper, the government got "very high marks from Canadians."

Ten percent of respondents gave the government a "very good" rating, 29.4 percent a "good" rating, and 38.1 percent rated it "average." Only nine percent gave the government poor performance marks."

On provincial relations:

"Canadians are also generally positive about federal/provincial relations, and that includes Quebec where the relationship has historically been both sensitive and important. On a scale of one to five, 42.7 percent of Quebecers rated relations at three."

Regarding our youth:

"Canadian youth are also highly optimistic, with 35.8 percent saying they're better off than a year ago. Nanos says it's understandable that young Canadians would be optimistic — despite carrying student loan debt — given Canada's strong job market and low unemployment rates."

On foreign policy:

"On foreign policy and Canada's reputation on the international stage, respondents in general had good feelings about Canada, but attitudes to specific countries might be different and personalized. Nanos gives China as an example.

"Canadians will focus on China when something happens that touches them directly like toxic toys coming into the country or jobs that are lost due to imports."

http://en.epochtimes.com/news/8-1-2/63559.html