Accountability Now

I started following the UK numbers simply because Dr Hinshaw (here in Alberta) said about a year ago that what happens in the UK tends to happen in Canada a number of months later. This was the reason why Alberta announced their dropping of restrictions back in July as they had a good indication of data coming from the UK saying it wasn't that bad. Hoping Alberta follows the UK on dropping any sort of vaccine passport too.

I remember watching the UK numbers as they went up and then came down then went up again and then slowly went up again before looking like its coming down again. It would be nice if it just went up and down but at this point we can't expect anything.

What about getting a shot every six months? That's the way the data is leaning right now when you look across the water. You missed the main point. The fact you are claiming is true at the start but immunity has shown to wane. Even in the Under 50 group in the UK the numbers are starting to shift. From July 21 to July 5, the cases in that in that period were 62.41% unvaccinated. In the period between Aug 15 to Aug 29 that same number is 41.94%. Looking at the same group over the same period, the hospitalizations have gone from 65.47% to 55.42% and the deaths have gone from 83.33% to 65.85%. The rates for double vaccinated people have mirrored this by starting low and trending up. This is only data from a 2 month period. I am curious how these numbers are going to look in 4 months or 6 months. This was why Israel opted for boosters after 6 months. A few points of discussion on this: 1. 85% of the cases in the UK for Delta (to date) have been with the under 50 group so it should be expected that group will have higher hospitalization numbers. They also have only 8% of the deaths even with these high numbers which is again indicative of your comment on age and health in general. 2. Both the over 50 and under 50 groups have shown a downward trend in immunity but they differ in the timing. This is explained by the fact that the over 50 group got their vaccine shots first. 3. The numbers from the UK don't show any relation to pre-existing conditions but we know that's a factor. The Alberta website had a pretty good graphic on this for all Covid cases that showed 80% of hospitalizations and 97% of deaths were with people who had pre-existing conditions. If this is even somewhat true then our approach needs to be and should have been to educate these people that because of their condition that they need to be vaccinated and are getting vaccinated regularly (every 6 months) as well as the elderly. If we were to achieve this then hospital numbers would be manageable and we could truly reopen.

The data on the Israel and the UK both go to show the vaccines work but their effectiveness wane after a shorter time than hoped. I'm curious how many people will roll up their sleeves for a third or fourth shot because that's what will happen the way this is going. The numbers in Canada are starting the same way they did in the UK...now the percentages are much higher including 67% of the recent deaths being fully vaccinated.

That is my exact same experience. Never had the flu before that one flu shot and never had it after but ironically a few days after taking it I had to go to emergency with a 105F fever. To be honest I was hoping these vaccines actually worked a little better and would stop transmission so that COVID would end and I wouldn't need the shot. Unfortunately that isn't the way it is and much like you I would rather lay low with the vaccine restrictions than take the risk on a vaccine that is so new.

No they don't. They just make their staff do extra steps based on their vaccination status. Supplying that vaccination status was mandatory. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/media/fox-mandate-vaccine-status/index.html I don't think people would be upset if they could keep their jobs knowing they just need to do an extra steps like rapid tests for example. Speaking of rapid tests...why is that not an option https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/experts-recommend-using-more-rapid-tests-so-why-is-canada-so-far-behind-other-regions-1.5578229

Sure we could break down deaths by age groups and then compare vaccination rates. If you have that info, then lets do it. The UK only goes by over 50 and under 50. However, if we are going to get into age detail then we also need to get into comorbidity detail also since that is a major factor too.

I don't distrust her either but like all people, she has an agenda. Her agenda of course is to convince as many people as possible to get vaccinated for the good of their health. Nothing wrong with that but still I've seen other health authorities use interesting choice of word or stats to drive home their agenda when its misleading. For example, you see a lot of authorities say they are seeing more kids hospitalized when what they are referring to is the ratio and not the absolute number. That's why I wanted to see what she said about the increase in 18-49 year old group.

Ok. I'll take a look. If you happen to see it sooner then please share that info

I'm not saying you're lying. I'm sure they said it but I would like to see what they said exactly and what data they are using. I have been following the UK who has been going through the delta variant for much longer with many more cases and thus far 60% of deaths are among the double vaxxed. BC and the rest of Canada is just starting on this delta spike so time will tell.

Sorry what I meant is that no one seems to be talking about the number of deaths. My point was leaning towards the fact that 60% of the deaths in England are double vaxxed. So if your vaccination rate is roughly 60% and your vaccinated death rate is 60%, doesn't that suggest that the vaccine has little to no effect on death? Do you notice that the government agencies here in Canada don't show vaccination status on deaths? They were above 3000 in the second wave. If they follow other countries then we will assume the death rate will be lower in this wave. If not, then one would have to question what makes the US different than other countries. First thing that comes to mind...general health.

Do you have a cite that you can provide?

I would also suspect that case numbers might not be truly represented as vaccinated people will feel milder or no symptoms yet still spread it. So their number may actually be quite a bit larger than what is represented. To add to this, the PHE case numbers also resemble the hospitalization numbers in that back in June, the double vaxxed were only 7% of the cases but now make up close to 20%. Immunity is waning and that will be the same here. Of course, no one seems to talk about deaths anymore. I'm guessing its because the data doesn't work for the vaccination cause in that metric.

Obesity is one component here. Again, hypertension is one of the largest comorbidities (is the largest in Alberta) and can be objectively measured. Even with obesity, I would suspect that the VAST majority of obese people already know they are. Getting educated on what comorbidiites are involved would not require a Fat Shaming exercise. You point out the facts and let them decide. Right now, MSM floods the news with videos of antivaxxers who died or are struggling and the majority of times they are clearly obese. In most other cases, you can dig to find they had some other issue going on. I agree. Believe it or not, I have just as many issues dealing with antivaxxer idiots who quote memes rather than the data. With that said, I don't like listening to the media as they twist things. The data supporting this is coming out of Israel and the UK. Israel was the first to the table for vaccines and had a large uptake. However at this point, 62% of their hospitalizations are double vaxxed. You can see the same trend happening in the UK as hospitalizations of the double vaxxed started at 6% back in June but have already climbed to 21% as of August. Right now the stats we see in Canada are showing low double vaxxed people in the hospital but based on the above examples, that will largely shift by December or so. Hence the need for boosters. Right now, the experts agree that boosters for elderly and immunocompromised are needed but are mixed on blanket boosters. Right now Canada and even the US are just entering their Delta phase and the hope is it will go away before the talk of boosters are needed however that doesn't seem to be the case in the UK as they continue to average about 30k cases per day.

Fair enough. The only thing I could find quickly for age demographics is from the CDC. Here's a link to that (https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html) Just looking at the colored chart, it doesn't appear that the numbers change much for the younger groups. Where you see the difference is the decrease in the older groups. So again by comparison, there are more younger people by ratio. Of course, we shouldn't trust one's visual perspective so I ran some numbers by clicking on the graph. From November 14 to Jan 16 (Second Wave), the hospitalization numbers on average were 32.2 for 0-4, 50.6 for 5-17 and 1243 for 18-49. For the period thus far in the Delta Wave we see numbers on average of 30 for 0-4, 42.4 for 5-17 and 904 for 18-49. I will not argue that the numbers have gone down that probably isn't the case however its safe to say that the numbers according to the CDC don't show an objective increase in younger hospitalizations. Of course....that data doesn't sell newspapers now does it. Not mandating but educating. How many people actually know these stats? I would actually love to get in front of antivaxxers and say go get your blood pressure tested. Or do you have an auto immune disease? I would be the biggest advocate of vaccination for them. But the fear mongering for EVERYONE to get it regardless of your health status is ridiculous. BMI is outdated. Connor McDavid is considered overweight by the CDC calculator! LOL! I would think that it would be fat content but again I am not proposing mandates but rather education. If you think you are truly overweight then get the jab. Except when vaccine immunity wanes after 4-6 months and you have elderly people walking around like they are bullet proof as they weren't actually educated. Just curious, how many booster shots are you going to end up taking? How many do you think the bulk of Canadians will take?

We've been through this before. Your version of many hasn't been quantified. The ratio of young people to old people may be increasing but I haven't seen an objective increase in numbers. As I showed you from Public Health England, the data shows the number of young kids hospitalized in previous waves was roughly the same as the Delta waves. The US might be showing an increase in numbers but again (as per the article I shared with you) the concern there is the obesity level in kids involved. Either you aren't looking hard enough or choosing not to look. Although...I do recall presenting most of this data to you earlier so I'm guessing its the latter. By age...https://www.statista.com/statistics/1228610/number-covid-cases-hospitalized-canada-by-age/ People under 20 have made up 1.93% of the hospitalizations. By comorbidity ....there are a number of sites that address this but I feel one of the best is the Province of Alberta. (https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#comorbidities It shows cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths based on the number of comorbidities you have. 3.2% of deaths in Alberta came from people with no comorbidities. Roughly 20% of ICU, 24.5% of hospitalizations and 68.4% of cases. More important to note that 84% of deaths have involved people with hypertension (high blood pressure). Its not hard to go down to your local Shoppers Drug Mart and test your blood pressure. What would be even more interesting is to see more detailed info on comorbidities and age together. A number of articles I have read have commented that a significant number of young people in the ICU had comorbidities but I have yet to see stats on it. We can go down the rabbit hole of what the vaccine does but I see you have deflected away from the point I made in that having natural infection provides better protection than a vaccine. So why wouldn't it be added to the vaccine passport other than agenda?

So you trust the science when it works for you but not against you? Why not take 10 doses of vaccine at one time then. Why not wear a blue shirt while getting vaccinated. If you are immune then you are immune whether its from Even Israel acknowledges past infection as a form of vaccination. PS...Trump should get it. He's old and probably has health issues. Again...my belief is that people with health issues or elderly should get it. The rest should choose.

Wondering if the new vaccine passports will include people who have had COVID already. They probably should now that this study was released: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital

Correct me if I wrong but the graphics from Argus have shown hospitalization numbers but not deaths. I briefly looked for Ontario COVID (Delta) deaths by vaccination status but wasn't successful. Keep in mind, the Covid cases in Ontario from Delta aren't large by any stretch as they are seeing approximately 500 cases per day with a population of 14.5 million versus UK with a population of 66.5 million seeing 35000 cases per day. 5x the population but 70x the daily cases. Just yesterday the UK updated their numbers and it shows 1189 deaths from Delta since Feb 1. 679 (57.1%) of these deaths are from double vaxxed and 390 (32.8%) are from unvaxxed. At the time of this briefing, the vaccination rates in the UK were 60% double vaxxed and 30% unvaxxed which is very close to the death rate percentages. However, keep in mind the data is cumulative from Feb 1 when only 0.7% of the UK was double vaccinated. To truly compare this one would have to cross reference weekly vaccination rates with case counts...not sure I am up for that. LOL. However if you look at the percentage of vaccinated versus unvaccinated for cases, hosptializations and deaths over the last six technical briefings you will see that the percentage of double vaccinated is climbing in every category and the percentage of unvaccinated is decreasing as time time goes on. The above suggests the vaccination effectiveness wanes over time. This is also being seen in Israel where just recently they found that 60% of people hospitalized are double vaxxed. Hence their reasoning for booster jabs.

The obvious? Like how Delta has taken the lives of 742 people in the UK since it arrived in February and 402 (54%) were double dosed, 87 (12%) were partially vaccinated and 253 (34%) were unvaccinated. These percentages closely resemble the number of vaccination percentages in the UK suggesting that people who are going to die from Delta are going to die regardless of vaccination status. What else else is obvious to you? Like the CDC showing that vaccination get the virus and spread it. I can also show you the Public Health England notice saying the same thing. The only benefit thus far of the vaccine appears to be reduced severity and hospitalizations which is why Ontario is showing us the ICU and Hospital admissions based on vaccination status. Delta is a game changer. So any stats you had on the original strain or other mutations don't apply. The key thing to observe is that vaccination immunity is showing to wane around 6 months which is why countries like Israel are offering the booster. In Canada, we started vaccinated later so there is a chance that the vaccines will hold off for most but that clock is ticking. Of course, a new game will start when Lambda arrives.

You clearly aren't up to date with worldly news. Vaccinated people are spreading it just as much as unvaccinated. They just don't feel the harsher effects (other than death which of course still seems to get those despite their vaccination status...at least in England that is). I would advise you to check in with countries like Israel, England and Singapore who are all highly vaccinated and are seeing large breakthrough numbers.

If the vaccines worked then why would it matter if some didn't get their first dose?

But not everything is purely capitalism. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-union-criticizes-party-leaders-promises-to-discipline-unvaccinated/ I'm not a union expert but I know they certainly have some clout especially in public sector jobs. Even MLSE has decided to go the moderate way asking for proof of vaccination or proof of negative test. I think you will start to see more of this from businesses as it allows them to stay open but also to appease their health concerns. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/article-maple-leaf-sports-entertainment-will-require-proof-of-vaccination-or/

I agree with everything you said except this part which was ironically the first point we engaged on. If we follow the UK data and from other countries (other than US) you will see that the percentages of vaccinated cases, hospitalizations and death are still there. Its tough to draw hard lines on something like a vaccine passport when the very thing you are basing it on shows such data. With that said....we will have to wait and see. Good chat.

Ok... You're really struggling keeping the arguments together. I disputed your claim that ratios shouldn't be used and instead objective numbers should be used. I then showed you the stats from England where they proved that younger people rates have not changed from the previous waves. Here it is AGAIN so you don't trip over yourself https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals