Pellaken

that link does not work for me. what is alliance quebec?

if I were Martin, I'd call it right now *stops... looks around...* guess not... regardless of the tory leadership election, I think calling the election at this instant will be his best option. he will lose a large chunk of votes for calling it during the tory leadership convention, yes, but since they are in a convention, they wont pick up too many votes. Especially if Harper wins, as stronach supporters may stay home. The NDP would benifit, but, honestly, we are in no position to take government. This is his only option if he wants to hold on to power.

possible results of the next election: BC Con-30 NDP-6 The Liberals will be FLOORED here. Totally. British Columbians are getting more upset at scandal after scandal after scandal. They tossed the NDP out of party status becuase of a few scandals, I would not be surprised with this result AB Con-27 NDP-1 I think this is obvious, the tories will just do very well here. 70%-75% of the vote is not beyond the realm of possibility. The NDP, meanwhile, will pick up one riding, in the center of Edmonton. we've done it before. with the lack of the Liberals, it will become the NDP who will be the main opposition SK Con-10 NDP-4 These numbers look like those numbers we had in the 70's and 80's. MB Con-8 NDP-6 Again, traditional 70's/80's numbers ON Con-71 NDP-32 Lib-5 in 2000, the liberals won 5 ridings by more than 50% of the vote (70% for the libs, to a combined 20% for the tories) The tories finished with less then 30% combined vote in a number of ridings in 2000. PQ BQ-61 Lib-5 Con-8 NDP-1 There are about 60 ridings the Bloc got more then 30% in. in 5, they finished below the combined PC/CA vote. The bloc does have a celing even within quebec. NB Con-8 NDP-2 The NDP did elect 2 MP's from NB in the past. NS NDP-6 Con-5 just like 1997 PE Con-3 NDP-1 PEI was the best for the PC Party, in terms of pop vote, in the 93/97/00 elections, but due to the smalness, they did not elect any MP's. I think the NDP will make a real drive to elect an MP, even going so far as to run Dr.Herb in Charlottwtown (our most popular member, in our most popular region. he lives in western PEI) NL Con-5 NDP-2 Non-Tories will vote NDP TR NDP-2 Con-1 the Yukon will turn blue. TOTALS: Con-183 NDP-62 BQ-61 Lib-10 *does not make official party status* like honestly, unless the Liberals do something and do it now, they are dead

actually, I would not put that beyond the realm of possibility

24 hours ago (5am my time) www.conservative.ca had been taken by a cyber-squatter. the site has nothing on it right now. www.conservatuer.ca is taking its place (there's a great shot at anti-french alliancers) but the point is that this party is having some major growing pains, and with the liberals who seem to be giving an example of suiside right now, the tories really need to get their act togethor.

This new scandal is the best thing to ever happen to the NDP... well, the best thing since Paul Martin the Liberals will begin, today, a freefall in the polls, and they will not stop till after the next election. I expect within 2 weeks the Liberals will be in second place in the polls. Harper's got the tory race rapped up now, no one is going to vote for Stronach as PM. I think they would have won if not for these scandals, as she would have had 4 years on the opposition benches to prepare, but now that the tories are likely to form government, I think Harper will be re-elected as leader. The NDP will pick up a sh*tload of former Liberal votes. I expect we will get north of 25% of the vote, and finish ahead of the Liberals on every province west of Quebec. I think we will beat them in Nova Scotia as well. things are fluid... lets wait an see... this is exciting man, what an exciting 18 months we've had... I'm lovin it

this is BILLIONS the liberals have made dissapear when you total it. They are dead. No election in the spring of 04, the Liberals will freefall in the polls, and will do horribly in the spring 05 eleciton... how horribly? ever heard of Kim Campbell? We will see a Conservative Majority government, with an NDP official opposition. Expect the Bloc to end up with north of 60 seats again, these are prelim numbers (I only heard about this new scandal 5 minutes ago) but ya never know

I think this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. no spring election.

why we out one of our stars up against one of their stars is beyond me. why not run her in one of the ridings with a loser.

no, I did not touch it to do these, which is why it should not carry too much weight just yet. once the tories pick a new leader, I will do up another riding by riding prediction

what are you guys smoking? Ontario: Liberal - 45% - 75 seats Conservative - 25% - 21 seats New Democrat - 20% - 12 seats Quebec: Bloc Quebecois - 45% - 44 seats (1997 seat total) Liberal - 40% - 31 seats New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats (Ducasse will finish a strong third, or weak second) Conservative - 5% - 0 seats BC: Conservative - 35% - 20 seats Liberal - 35% - 10 seats New Democrat - 25% - 6 seats Green - 5% - 0 seats Alberta: Conservative - 60% - 26 seats Liberal - 30% - 2 seats New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats Manitoba: Liberal - 40% - 7 seats New Democrat - 30% - 4 seats Conservative - 25% - 3 seats Saskatchewan: New Democrat - 35% - 4 seats Liberal - 35% - 4 seats Conservative - 30% - 6 seats Nova Scotia: Liberal - 45% - 6 seats New Democrat - 30% - 3 seats Conservative - 25% - 2 seats New Brunswick Liberal - 50% - 6 seats Conservative - 40% - 3 seats New Democrat - 5% - 1 seat Prince Edward Island Liberal - 45% - 3 seats Conservative - 45% - 1 seat New Democrat - 5% - 0 seats Newfoundland Liberal - 45% - 4 seats Conservative - 45% - 3 seats New Democrat - 10% - 0 seats Territories, seats: Liberal:2 Conservative:1 TOTAL: Liberal - 150 - 40.5% Conservative - 86 - 25.5% (same as CA in 2000) Bloc - 44 - 10.7% (same pop vote as 1997 and 2000) New Democrat - 30 - 16.5% These are very preliminary numbers, and are subject to change.

that is, indeed, true. I went to see a lawyer specifically about this as a politician I dont want to do anything that's going to come back and bite me in the arse.

the Liberals are skrewy too... vote NDP

I'm a little confused. If harper wins, I also see a minority possible for the tories, but if it looks like they are heading for a minority, the election may never get called I am still thinking, debating, and looking at the polls and ridings. personally, I'll crituque your prediction Alta CPC 28 I cannot see this, the Liberals will take 1 seat at least, likely 2. SK/MB/Terr CPC 14 Lib 2 NDP 15 I think the Liberals, who hold 7 seats right now, will gain, not lose seats here. Ont CPC 45 Lib 51 NDP 10 I cant see the new conservative party taking more then 30 seats, MAX here, my predictios have 25 or less.

The NDP of today, is in terms of policies, where the Liberals were under Trudeau The Liberals of today is, in terms of policies, where the PC Party has historically been The NDP will gain right across the country.... but I doubt they will gain much in Quebec.

The NDP is not set to gain any seats in atlantic canada. If we do, it's halifax west. We are also looking good in our 4 current seats, so I wouldent predict a loss. We are polling about the same now as we did last election, so things are looking good for us keeping our 4 seats

I dont think theres any quesiton that the tories will win the official opposition. All my predictions show them between 60 and 100 seats. I just cant see the bloc topping the 1993 total of 54 seats, and I find it hard to beleive the new conservatives would get less then that number. Even if you take the half the Edmonton ridings out, you still have 25 tories just from Alberta alone. I dont think there's any quesiton the party will pick up seats in Ontario, even a 1 or 2% gain for the Alliance would have got 5 seats in Ontario. Of the 12 seats in the former PC caucus, 10 were from the east. Even if half those seats are kept, thats 5 seats. There are 15 seats in SK/MB, lets say 5 again. we are now up to 40 seats, meaning 15 seats in BC, and you got an opposition. I think this is reasonable. The question will be where will they fall in. The CA vote 66 seats. The CA + PC seats in the last election was 12+66= 78. According to UBC, had the 2 parties been one (done by hitting forcast without changing a thing) it would have had 114 seats. The current caucus has 73 members. 66-73-78-114. Where will the party fall in? If the party can manage more then 114 seats, we must consiter the possibility that it would form a minority government. 114 tories, plus 50 Blocists, and around 30 Dippers, totals 194, which is just 114 seats shy of the total. For the NDP, the quesiton is how many PCers are voting Liberal. There are some ridings where we may be close to the Liberal. the result of this election will rely on just how many raw votes the Liberals can get. If the PCers stay home, the NDP will benifit, if they vote in droves for Martin, the NDP will suffer. We really could get anywhere between 50 and 5 seats depending on what the PCers do. Conversley, almost every single seat we can take, we can take from the Liberals. The better we do, the better the tories do. If the tories are 20 seats behind the liberals, and we take 30 seats, that's a 10 seat lead, and a government for the tories. This effect is seen in Quebec. All the BQ seats will be taken from the Liberals, the better the Bloc does, the worse the Liberals will do. The longer martin waits to call this election, the worse it looks. The NDP and Tories are ready to go... NOW. The longer he waits the worse it will look, and the more people will gravatate away. I think this may be a close election actually, if Harper wins and the PCers stay home, we may see the tories actually win this if the timing is right.

I use the http://esm.ubc.ca/CA04/forecast.html to help, but it's by no means the final word.

honest politicians dont get elected

Trends to note Ipsos reid polls for the green party. that means they ask the people they poll "who would you vote for, Lib, Con, NDP, or green?" Most people do not think of the greens as a feasable alternative yet, and so asking the people, as though it were, will get higher responces. if they were to ask for the CHP, or the communist party, they'd get the same results. but, assuming these green numbers are right, they point to a huge boost for the party nationwide, especially ontario west. With these numbers, they could elect a seat in BC. The NDP is up in every region, except the east, where it's vote remains unchanged. Historically, the NDP has not done well in the east anyway, so to remain stable here while re-gaining the traditional base is quite a feat. The Conservatives has not yet managed to capture the traditional PC&CA votes. They are down, way down in some cases, right across the country. Due to the nature of the merger, this is expected, and hence does not spell disaster for the new party. The Liberals have lost gorund in central canada, and made up for it with gains elsewhere. The Libereal party is now truly a national party, joining the Conservatives and NDP. (sorry for the dig there, but I did want to point out the Liberals are up in western canada) now, to compare the conservative vote with previous CA/PC votes: BC CON-26 - down from old CA vote CA-49 PC-11 AB CON-57 - around old CA vote CA-59 PC-14 PR CON-24 - down from old CA vote CA-39 PC-10 ON CON-31 - Up from old CA vote CA-24 PC-15 PQ CON-6 - around the old total for either party CA-6 PC-6 ATL CON-31 - matches old PC vote exactly. CA-10 PC-31

comparavitvley: Nationally (from this poll to the last election) Lib 38 (-3) Con 26 (-12) NDP 17 (+9) BQ 11 (+-0) Grn 4 (+3) BC Lib 33 (+5) NDP 29 (+18) Con 26 (-31) Grn 10 (+8) AB Con 57 (-15) Lib 24 (+3) NDP 16 (+11) Grn 2 (+2) Prarie Lib 36 (+9) NDP 31 (+8) Con 24 (-25) Grn 6 (+6) ON Lib 47 (-4) Con 31 (-7) NDP 16 (+8) Grn 4 (+4) PQ BQ 49 (+9) Lib 31 (-13) NDP 8 (+4) Con 6 (-6) Grn 4 (+4) ATL Lib 49 (+8) Con 31 (-11) NDP 17 (+-0) Grn 1 (+1)

really, we should compare this to the 2000 election, not the last poll. The totals for the "Conservative Party" are the totals for the alliance and PC's combined. The "Seats won" are NOT the real seats won, but, the seats that would have been won had the PC-CA vote been a single vote. BC CON-30 - 56.7% Lib-3 - 27.6% NDP-1 - 11.3% AB Con-25 - 72.3% Lib-1 - 20.9% NDP-0 - 5.5% Prarie Con-17 - 48.5% Lib-6 - 26.9% NDP-5 - 23.3% ON Lib-75 - 51.4% Con-27 - 38.1% NDP-1 - 8.3% PQ BQ-38 - 39.9% Lib-36 - 44.2% Con-1 - 11.8% NDP-0 - 1.8% ATL Lib-15 - 40.7% Con-13 - 41.5% NDP-4 - 16.6%

I am a populist before I'm a social-democrat. I support democratic reforms, and have posted MANY times about my ideas for them. all those posts are ignored by those "EEE or nothing" supporters. for the record I was a member of the alliance for a week in august, but when I was told my NDP membership would be revoked unless I quit the party, I did.

Pell, if I had my way, we'd be gone tomorrow...sooner, if possible. I support western sepration and quebec seperation I've had enough whining, its about time the coutry fracture, and everyone walk their seprerate ways either that, or we negotiate, but I dont see that happening any time soon

Campbell wants PR. expect to see a minority government... and many more to follow. but yes, this does hurt the BC libs. They are almost skrewing up as bad as the federal libs.