TheNewTeddy

Fun with numbers! What if Canada had the same electoral system as Japan? Here is the 2011 results, presuming we had 100 PR seats. In terms of the PR seats the parties would have gained the following. CPC - 3 from the Atlantic, 4 from Quebec, 17 from Ontario, 4 from the Prairies, 6 from Alberta, and 6 from BC NDP - 3 from the Atlantic, 10 from Quebec, 10 from Ontario, 2 from the Prairies, 2 from Alberta, and 4 from BC LIB - 2 from the Atlantic, 3 from Quebec, 10 from Ontario, 1 from the Prairies, 1 from Alberta, and 2 from BC GRN - 0 from the Atlantic, 1 from Quebec, 1 from Ontario, 0 from the Prairies, 1 from Alberta, and 1 from BC BLQ - 0 from the Atlantic, 6 from Quebec, 0... etc etc The end PR seat results: 40C - 31N - 19L - 4G - 6B Added to our FPTP, the end results would be as follows: 207C - 133N - 53L - 5G - 10B A Majority with a strong opposition. JAPAN update Summary: 325 - GOV (Conservative) 58 - OPO (Liberal) 54 - JRP (Reform) 43 - ALL OTHERS (Populist, Communist, Socialist, Liberal, etc) ALL SEATS IN

10 of Egypt's 27 provinces have gone to the polls over the new proposed Constitution. Results suggest between 55% and 57% have voted yes. A second round takes place next week (the day after the world ends) but the results are not expected to be much different.

I visit people's profiles when they make note of it (like betsy did - others have too in the past asking questions about their profiles) or when I want to find a post that I know someone made but can't remember where (search their post history) or finally, if I've noticed they've looked at my profile.

My Coverage of the Japan election ends. Notes: The LDP has won a majority of ridings in all but two areas. One is the small 3 seat Yamanshi area, the other is the large city of Osaka. In Osaka they nabbed 3 seats, combined to 4 for their ally the NKP (nearly half of the NKP's total riding victories) and 12 for the JRP (remember, the JRP only won 14 ridings) The LDP has won the PR vote in every area except the Kinki region (which contains Osaka) where the JRP edged them out by 1 seat. The LDP, DPJ, JRP, and NKP have all won at least 1 PR seat in all PR areas of Japan. YPJ has won PR seats in all except the 3 smallest areas. DPJ has fallen behind JRP in most of the regions, and behind the NKP in some. My estimate of the popular vote given the PR seats: LDP - 33% JRP - 22% DPJ - 17% NKP - 12% YPJ - 8% TJP - 3% There are, however, two ballots voters are given. One for PR and one for the ridings. My estimate of the ridings popular vote is as follows: LDP - 51% DPJ - 17% JRP - 12% NKP - 10% YPJ - 6% TJP - 5% This averages to: LDP - 42% JRP - 19% DPJ - 15% NKP - 11% YPJ - 7% TJP - 4% You can expect the final results to be within 1:5 of this. With just 6 seats left to go, the near-final results are: 293 - LDP 30 - NKP 323 - NEW GOVERNMENT (GOV) 56 - DPJ 1 - NPP 57 - OLD GOVERNMENT (OPO) 52 - JRP 18 - YPJ 8 - TJP 8 - CPJ 2 - SDP 1 - NPD 5 - Independents 6 - Undeclared ---- Summary: 323 - GOV (Conservative) 57 - OPO (Liberal) 52 - JRP (Reform) 42 - ALL OTHERS (Populist, Communist, Socialist, Liberal, etc) 6 - Undeclared

Current standings The new government will have a 2/3rds majority http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/index.html# Since the election is thus "over" my updates to this chart will become more rare. Check the above link for live results. - - - - - Riding PropRep - - - - - Total DPJ - - - 26 - - - 29 - - - DPJ - - - 55 LDP - - 236 - - - 55 - - - LDP - - 291 TPJ - - - 2 - - - - 6 - - - - TPJ - - - 8 NKP - - - 9 - - - 20 - - - NKP - - - 29 JRP - - - 14 - - - 37 - - - JRP - - - 51 CPJ - - - 0 - - - 8 - - - CPJ - - - - 8 YPJ - - - 3 - - - 13 - - - YPJ - - - 16 SDP - - - 1 - - - 1 - - - SDP - - - 2 NPP - - - 1 - - - 0 - - - NPP - - - 1 NPD - - - 0 - - - 1 - - - NPD - - - 1 JNP - - - 0 - - - - 0 - - - JNP - - - 0 NPR - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - NPR - - - 0 HRP - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - HRP - - - 0 FAC - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - FAC - - - 0 IND - - - 5 - - - 0 - - - IND - - - 5 YTC - - - 3 - - 10 - - YTC - - - 13 IF IN CANADA (308 seats in each section - for comparison) - - - - - Riding PropRep - - - - - Total DPJ - - - 27 - - - 50 - - - DPJ - - - 35 LDP - - 242 - - - 94 - - - LDP - - 187 TPJ - - - 2 - - - - 10 - - - - TPJ - - - 5 NKP - - - 9 - - - 34 - - - NKP - - - 19 JRP - - - 14 - - - 63 - - - JRP - - - 33 CPJ - - - 0 - - - 14 - - - CPJ - - - - 5 YPJ - - - 3 - - - 22 - - - YPJ - - - 10 SDP - - - 1 - - - 2 - - - SDP - - - 1 NPP - - - 1 - - - 0 - - - NPP - - - 1 NPD - - - 0 - - - 2 - - - NPD - - - 1 JNP - - - 0 - - - - 0 - - - JNP - - - 0 NPR - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - NPR - - - 0 HRP - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - HRP - - - 0 FAC - - - 0 - - - 0 - - - FAC - - - 0 IND - - - 5 - - - 0 - - - IND - - - 3 YTC - - - 3 - - 17 - - YTC - - - 8 Frankly, this election is the biggest argument for the Japanese election system of Parallel PR that I've seen yet. Without PR this would have been a bigger-than-Mulroney landslide with the Opposition crushed into dust. With 'standard' PR, this would have been a minority government without the moral authority to govern. With the combined Japanese system, this is a Majority with a divided but robust opposition. (may not add to 308 due to rounding errors)

People are irresponsible. That's the core of the problem. Guns are weapons. Guns are not "Freedom". The problem is the Americans who think they are "Freedom". After all, would you leave your freedom at home? If this mindset was quashed gun control would not be needed. Irresponsible people should have their right to bear arms infringed.

"Live" results (I will edit in updates) Party - Results (colour on map) DPJ - 44 (blue) Democrats LDP - 272 (red) Liberal-Democrats TPJ - 7 (cyan) Tomorrow/Future Party of Japan NKP - 27 (dark yellow) Komeito JRP - 42 (yellow) Japan Restoration Party CPJ - 6 (purple) Communist YPJ - 12 (orange) Your Party SDP - 1 (Dark Green) Social Democrats NPP - 1 (pinkish purple) New Party People NPD - 1 (green) New Party Daichi JNP - 0 (Other Orange) Japan New Party NPR - 0 (Light Green) New Party Reform HRP - 0 (Light Purple) Happiness Realization Party FAC - 0 (Greyish) Factions IND - 4 (sky blue) Non-Party YTC - 63 (Dark Grey) Yet to call JRP has won the Tokyo Governorship. CHECK BELOW FOR MORE UP-TO-DATE LIVE RESULTS.

Current results (these are hard to find as they are all in Japanese!) LDP - 192 DPJ - 32 JRP - 31 NKP - 24 YPJ - 11 (Also called YP) CPJ - 4 TPJ - 4 (Also called FPJ) SDP - 1 IND - 1 YTC - 180 (Yet To Come) The YTC happens to equal Proportional Representation. Seems as though the above are the results of the ridings. I will thus calculate the final result myself... but again, all this data is Japanese, so it takes a bit of figuring. Until then, here's a map! Red = LDP Blue = DPJ Dark Yellow = NKP Light Yellow = JRP EDIT - Seems some of the PR seats are indeed being counted, as seen on the right-hand side of the map. Also, according to this live coverage, the biggest problem with the DPJ was flip-flopping. In particular, proposing a policy, implementing it, seeing it does not work, and cancelling it. Needless to say, this was unpopular. Edit Breakdown of current results by electoral method RIDINGS LDP - 144 DPJ - 7 NKP - 7 JRP - 3 YPJ - 3 TPJ - 1 IND - 1 PROPREP LDP - 48 JRP - 28 DJP - 25 NKP - 17 YPJ - 8 CPJ - 4 SDP - 1 IMPORTANT NOTES!!! 241 for Majority 320 for Supermajority (Constitutional Changes) NKP is expected to sit in coalition with the LDP even if the LDP wins 320 seats Current upper house: LDP - 83 NKP - 19 NRP - 5 (conservative and nationalist) GOV - 107 (new government already holds these in an upper-house coalition) DPJ - 106 YPJ - 11 JCP - 6 SDP - 4 PNP - 3 (protectionist, social conservative, populist) IND - 5 122 needed for majority. 162 seats needed for a supermajority. (81 can stop a supermajority)

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/ Dunno if the polls have closed yet, or, close very soon, but the media coverage is getting started. Live coverage here. Don't worry if you don't have time to follow, I will keep you all updated! Current reports: EXIT POLLS: 275-310 LDP 55-77 DPJ 40-61 - JRP 20-28 - NKP 40-60 - Others

You'd settle for reducing deaths as opposed to trying to stop them altogether? The deadliest elementary school incident in US history involved a bombing. Bombs are found everywhere.

Oh! thank you, excellent. I'll go poking around that to see if there are any other things I want to check.

Egypt starts voting on it's constitution today. There are three basic groups of people who will decide the results: Those who are Anti-Morsi These folks generally are voting against the deal. Pro-Morsi Conservatives These folks love the constitution and are voting for it. Folks who want stability These people, many of whom are Liberal, are going to be voting for the deal as well. Japan (241 needed for majority) Updated projection to better match current trends in polling: 255 - LDP - Conservative 99 - DPJ - Liberal 64 - JRP - Reform 62 - Others: 21 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist) 15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive 14 - YP - Populist...ish 8 - JCP - Communists 4 - SDP - Social Democrats Smaller parties gain 1 or 2 each due to high undecided rates (if they are undecided about the big guys, they may go small) JRP loses more seats due to the fact that they seem to be performing better among PR voters than among district voters, while the DPJ gains seats for the opposite reason. EDIT Adjusted again due to more information. LDP seems to be sweeping in the non-PR vote, and the little guys are doing even better than I have above. 280 - LDP - Conservative 74 - DPJ - Liberal 61 - JRP - Reform 65 - Others: 23 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist) 15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive 15 - YP - Populist...ish 8 - JCP - Communists 4 - SDP - Social Democrats There are those who think LDP+NKP (usual allies) will get a super-majority of 330 seats. This would enable them to over-ride any veto from the upper house. I however do not see it. When the undecideds are this big of a fraction, they usually do not break for any one party (though Quebec and Alberta have proven that this can indeed be the case from time to time) The better the LDP sweeps the non-PR ridings, the worse DPJ will do, as that is where they need to make their gains.

Here's one for the gun control people. http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_t3 The problem is not with guns or knives or death vs injury - the problem is with society.

I (finally) checked my e-mail and there was an e-mail. It was not junked. However, I do not regularly check my e-mail. Is there a way to get a notification on the forum itself? The last time I checked my e-mail was Monday, but the last time prior to that I checked my e-mail was November 22nd (judging from the date of the e-mails I had to delete) If it took someone 3 weeks to respond to a warning, the mods might presume they are doing it on purpose.

Rational people, in general, do not commit suicide.

Amazing how fast we are willing to focus on the person behind the gun and how quickly we forget about the people on the other side of those bullets.

Oh and on waiting times... In September 2011 my shrink told me that my mental illnesses make it difficult for me to get hired. Not hold a job mind you, just find one and get hired. So he put me on a waiting list for a social worker. In February 2012 I started seeing this social worker. We worked though some issues and she thought I was ready for job help. So she contacted an outside agency - cause this social worker is only internal to the hospital. May 2012, the other persona finally came to see me and said I was not disabled enough for them, that if I wanted to go though them, I need some papers showing exactly what I have. Thus we set up appointments to get that done. July 2012, I began that process. September 2012, that process ended. I now "officially" have Autism. I was then referred to another outside source. October 2012 that person called me. Told me they were going to call me... November 2012 They called me and told me that I quality for their services. And promptly put me on another waiting list. I'm still waiting to hear back from them.

Hope that helps. I'm pro public healthcare, but I also live in reality.

These parents probably already have presents for their kids. This is just tragic.

red=conscription Frankly, I support it. Teach people some discipline.

Question: I got a warning but did not get any "notification" about it. I saw I had more so I clicked, and there was a note, but I did not get any kind of pop-up or such (like I would for a PM) and am wondering if this is WAD or not?

Upcoming elections: 15th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2012 Egypt Referendum 16th http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 JAPAN 16th - http://en.wikipedia....elections,_2012 Venezula 17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 Bermuda 19th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2012 South Korea* 12th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Czech (President) 20th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Austria Referendum 20th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lower Saxony (Germany)* 22nd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 ISRAEL Countries in ALLCAPS will get focus by me, while those with an asterisk* after them will get a "minor focus" (similar to Romania or Ghana) Other big elections this coming year http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_German_federal_election GERMANY http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election AUSTRALIA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_parliamentary_election,_2013 Iceland* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2013 Lebanon* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nepalese_Constituent_Assembly_election,_2013 Nepal* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistani_general_election,_2013 Pakistan* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_general_election,_2013 Palestine* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_constitutional_referendum,_2013 Zimbabwe Referendum http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_presidential_election,_2013 Zimbabwe Presidential

South Korea More polls and more of the same. Park looks set to win. I'll thus remove this from my "follow close" and focus on Japan and elections coming up next month.

This. As well, when the admin says to do a thing and you say you will not because the person who posted originally is someone you dislike - that is called "Trolling"

Ghana Final results for the Presidential votes are as follows. John Mahama - Social Democrat - 5,574,761 Nana Akufo-Addo - Conservative - 5,248,898 All the other candidates combined - 171,603 Total number of invalid ballots cast - 251,720 The losing candidate is debating a court challenge but has ruled out violence. In Parliament: 120 - Socialists 94 - Conservatives 3 - Others 58 - Undeclared Romania It seems the election system has elements of proportionality that I was not aware of. House 273 - Socialists (158 Socialists, 102 Left-Liberals, 13 Social-Conservatives) 56 - Conservatives (52 Right-Liberals, 3 Democrats, 1 Pesants) 47 - Populists 18 - Hungarians 18 - Various Ethnic Minorities Senate 122 - Socialists (63 Socialists, 51 Left-Liberals, 8 Social-Conservatives) 24 - Conservatives (22 Right-Liberals, 1 Democrat, 1 Peasant) 21 - Populists 9 - Hungarians Japan Updated projection to better match current trends in polling: 260 - LDP - Conservative 94 - DPJ - Liberal 70 - JRP - Reform 56 - Others: 19 - NKP - Religious (Buddhist) 15 - FJP - Moderate and Progressive 12 - YP - Populist...ish 7 - JCP - Communists 3 - SDP - Social Democrats