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TheNewTeddy

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  1. LIVE RESULTS With about 0.1% of the votes in, the current actual vote-counting results are as follows: 29 - Likud 17 - Lapid 14 - Labour 11 - Shas 10 - Jewish 7 - Torrah 6 - Liberal 6 - Meretz 4 - UAL 3 - Hadash 3 - Balad 3 - Kadima THIS POST WILL BE UPDATED AS FREQUENTLY AS I CAN update - 4:30 not much real change, the above has not been edited as a result. I do have to go to bed at some point, have not slept all night, but I'll update when I wake up if I do go to bed soon. update - 5:10 Going to bed. update - 8pm 70% of the vote in now.
  2. Exit Poll Averaging, "result" of the election. 31 - Conservative AKA Likud 19 - Lapid 17 - Labour 12 - Jewish 12 - Shas 7 - Meretz 6 - Liberal AKA Hatnuah 6 - Torrah (forgot them in exit polls!) 5 - Hadash 3 - UAL 2 - Balad So, how do our proposed coalitions above do with these numbers? RIGHT WING: Likud + Jewish + Shas + Torrah 61 seats, a bare-boned majority. These parties, however, have indicated they may not be willing to work together. LEFT WING: Lapid + Labour + Liberal + Meretz etc etc These 4 parties get 49 seats. Shas would bring them up to 61, and therefore, this is possible... but with Meretz so far on the left and Shas still a religious party, somewhat unlikely. Labour will be pushing for this, even if Shas has to be replaced with the Jewish party. LEFT RELIGIOUS: Lapid + Labour + Jewish + Shas No majority. They'd hit exactly 60 and would need at least 1 other person to back them. Perhaps Livni could come in. RIGHT CENTRE: Likud + Lapid + Labour 67 seats. This is something that Likud could back. RELIGIOUS CENTRE Likud + Lapid + Shas These 3 parties could also cobble together a majority. Likud probably wants this more than anything right about now. 4th exit poll The only real change with the late exit poll is Shas loses 1 seat. This means that the Left Wing coalition is now impossible, and, so is the right wing coalition. That is important. The results, however, will tell the final story. I now seriously doubt a right-wing government will be formed. I also doubt that a government without Likud can be formed. This means Likud and Lapid (combined seats: 50) will decide on where to get the 11 extra seats they need for a government, and I suspect Lapid will have quite a bit of say on who that other party is. In other words, though Netanyahu has won the election, Lapid is in the driver's seat.
  3. Word on the street is that Bibi and Lapid will form a coalition. ALSO NOTE FURTHER UPDATES WILL JUST BE EDITED IN TO THIS POST TO AVOID DOUBLE POSTING. If there is a large update (IE breaking news) or, a long time gap, then I will move to other posts. until then, find more information below: update - 3:16 (above) update 3:30 looking for more exit polls and result data. expect an update shortly. update - 3:33 actual results can be found here http://www.votes-19....nationalresults remember that it is VERY early... and all in hebrew. I'll try to translate as things go on. final exit poll thanks to my friend in Haifa unedited quote as he sent it. all 3 exit polls 4th poll added. 31 - 31 - 31 - 29 - Likud 19 - 18 - 19 - 19 - Lapid 17 - 17 - 17 - 16 - Labour 12 - 12 - 12 - 13 - Jewish 11 - 13 - 12 - 10 - Shas 09 - 09 - 08 - ?? - Arab (total) 07 - 07 - 07 - 06 - Meretz 06 - 06 - 06 - ?? - Torrah 06 - 06 - 07 - 07 - Liberal 00 - 00 - 02 - 02 - Nationalist 00 - 00 - 00 - 02 - Kadima Next post will be a separate post averaging this and discussing possible coalition options.
  4. Another Exit Poll: 31 - Conservative 18 - Lapid 17 - Labour 13 - Shas 12 - Jewish 9 - Arab Total 7 - Meretz 6 - Liberal 0 - Kadima 0 - Nationalist 0 - Not-Shas
  5. One of the exit polls: 31 - Conservative 19 - Lapid 17 - Labour 12 - Jewish 12 - Shas 9 - Arab Total 7 - Meretz 6 - Liberal 0 - Kadima 0 - Nationalist 0 - Not-Shas
  6. The "Can a Jewish state be Democratic" thread.Most other Israel threads descend in to this "Well at least they are better than themthar ay-rabs" kind of stuff, so I asked people to not talk about it.
  7. Possible Coalitions: Over the past week, just about all the parties in the "Expected Coalition" have backed away from one another. The Jewish Party has said they'd rather sit with Labour. Likud has said they'd rather sit with Labour too. One might expect the two tried to hammer out a back-room deal before hand and both sides left frustrated. Remember too it was Labour leaving the government that caused the early election, but with more seats, and with the government losing 10 seats, Labour may be more willing to rejoin if they have more power. The 7 largest parties are now saying they'd all like a centrist coalition. Despite that, a right-wing coalition still may result at the end of the day. Here are a few possibilities. RIGHT WING: Conservative + Jewish + Shas + Torrah A left wing friend from Israel refers to this as the combining of a fascist with a theocratic administration and does not care for it. Despite the calls for a centrist government, I still put my proverbial money on this coalition. LEFT WING: Labour + Lapid + Liberal + Meretz + Kadima, with Shas, and support from Hadash Unlikely as the Arab parties would probably never support anything of this sort, and they'd need not only them, but Shas, which would never allow the Arab parties to do so, even if not officially in the coalition. LEFT RELIGIOUS: Labour + Jewish + Lapid + Shas + Liberal I suspect Labour will very much try to cobble this together after the election. They may even try to bring in Kadima along for bonus points. RIGHT CENTRE Likud + Labour + Lapid The smallest possible coalition (3 parties) may prove to be the most stable, if the latter two are willing RELIGIOUS CENTRE Likud + Lapid + Shas + Liberal or Torrah This is probably what Likud will aim for first, and what they hope to get. No other obvious combo has the 61 seats needed for a majority at these levels. Things to keep in mind: Kadima will survive it seems but suffer a massive drop, equal in size to that the Bloc faced in 2011. Kadima is expected to lose 93% of their seats, and be reduced from 28 to 2. Lapid's party is pulling support from Kadima. His father was one of the key people to support Kadima is a critical stage and his father's party basically joined with Kadima providing it an important electoral base. Livni was Kadima's leader for quite a while. Combined, Livni and Lapid are expected to take 21 seats. Add to the 2 Kadima will take and the end result is 23, not far off from the 28 the party took last time. A pensioners party is running. It is lead by a sweet looking old man who once headed an organization seen as more ruthless than the CIA and KGB put together; he was the one who (ran the operation that) hunted down Eichmann. He ran in 2006 when his party was projected to take 2 seats and wound up taking 7. His new party may be able to surprise as well and despite being projected at 0 the entire way, may manage to score seats. The last 2 parties on the list may also make the threshold, especially the nationalists. People may be saying they'll vote for Shas - a very ethnic based party - despite the fact they plan to vote for another party like the Jewish party. We'll see if this actually happens or not.
  8. Election in Israel today. I need to be out until about 3pm or so, but after that, polls should close, and I should be able to provide updates as counting progresses. My final projection is as follows: 32 - Conservative - Likud and Yisrael Beitanu - Benjamin Netanyahu 17 - Labour - Avoda - Shelly Yachimovich 14 - Jewish - Jewish Home and National Union - Naftali Bennett 13 - Lapid - Yesh Atid - Yair Lapid 11 - Shas - Shas - Eli Yishai 8 - Liberal - Hatanuah - Tzipi Livni 6 - Torrah - United Torrah Judaism - Yaakov Litzman 6 - Progressive - Meretz - Zhava Gal-On 4 - Arab&Jewish - Hadash - Mohammad Barakeh 4 - Arab&Islamist - Balad - Jamal Zahalka 3 - Arab&Nationalist - UAL - Ibrahim Sarsur 2 - Kadima - Kadima - Shaul Mofaz 0 - Nationalist - Otzma LeYisrael - Aryeh Eldad 0 - Not-Shas - Am Shalem - Haim Amsalem
  9. About a dozen of the people in the picture ... well a dozen if everyone had shown up for work, are members of Shas. Shas MP candidates are chosen by Rabbis and not voters.
  10. The crux of my question is can a theocratic state be a democracy
  11. For the record, the Voluntary thread I started up is working. I'll be starting another one up shortly to see if it works the same on the climate issue.
  12. Remember, the Israeli election is tomorrow. My projection is as follows: 32 - Conservative (Coalition of 2 parties) 17 - Labour 14 - Jewish (Coalition of 2 parties) 14 - Lapid (Liberalish policies) 11 - Shas 8 - Liberal (Livni's party) 6 - Torrah Party 6 - Progressives (Meretz) 4 - Hadash (Arab/Jewish) 3 - UAL (Islamist) 3 - Balad (Arab Party) 2 - Kadima (won most seats last time) I reserve the right to change it due to last minute information
  13. Advertising is another reason, etc. I will continue to list individual reasons btw as there are far too many to fit into a single post.
  14. What special status does the Catholic Church have in Canada exactly?
  15. It's just one point. Another: When you can't talk to one another you can't try to agree. Look at our own country. Quebecois 'need' to learn English to speak to the rest of Canada, and if you want to speak to Quebec, you gotta learn French to do so. This is not a good situation. We need to be able to speak to one another no matter where or who we are. If the entire world spoke one language - whatever that language - we would be able to communicate with one another and thus come to agreements. It's not about high ranking political leaders being able to talk to the people, or about the people to be able to talk to those top leaders. It is about people talking to people. The internet brings this world together, but languages divide us. If you could go on to the right website and have a chat - right now - with someone from Nepal, or Algeria, or Brazil, both of you would end up with a far more open mind. Communication is important and we should not poo-poo the thought of it.
  16. Freedom and Democracy can, at times, be very different things. I have no doubts that a Jewish state can be Free.
  17. My original projection: Between 66 and 69 - CDU (Conservative) Between 54 and 59 - SPD (Socialist) Between 21 and 24 - GRN (Green) Either (Zero) 0 or 8 - FDP (Liberal) Changes, given that there are only 90% of the seats I had expected. IE, these numbers multiplied by .9 59-62 CDU (54) - result 49-53 SPD (49) 19-22 GRN (20) 00-07 FDP (14) Presuming a 7 seat tactical vote from CDU to FDP 59-62 CDU (61) Prediction correct 49-53 SPD (49) Prediction correct 19-22 GRN (20) Prediction correct 00-07 FDP (07) Prediction correct My errors were > Not bothering to double check how many seats were up for grabs > Not expecting the CDU-FDP tactical vote, or, it's strength.
  18. In the Referendum in Austria, voters rejected, by a 60-40 margin, a change that would outlaw the draft. It seems there were fewer seats at stake in Lower Saxony than I had been told. Regardless, the preliminary results are quite clear. CDU agents told voters to vote FDP to ensure they make the threshold and they did in huge numbers, doubling the expected FDP take. CDU - 54 FDP - 14 TOTAL - 68 SPD - 49 GRN - 20 TOTAL - 69 With votes still being counted, however, the results could swing the other way. After all, it's 1 seat we are talking about. I'll keep you updated if anything changes. PS The Left got 3.3% and the Pirates 1.9%, both below the 5% threshold. If there was no threshold they'd have won 5 and 3 seats respectively, with all other parties losing a total of 8 seats to make up for this addition.
  19. Yes. They've done studies with just one thing - colour - and have shown that people who speak some languages see colours that people who speak other languages do not. Russian for example has two "Blue" colours, and they can distinguish between them far better than we can. Their eyes are no different than ours are, it's their brains. In china, people see the past as "up" and the future as "down" because that is how traditional Chinese text is presented. When you think so radically different from somebody that you can't even agree about the colour on the page in front of you, you can easily get into arguments. If we all spoke one language, this would not happen.
  20. A reminder for the naming convention I'm using for the Israeli Election: http://www.mapleleaf...240#entry871337 ----LOWER SAXONY--- No poll updates in Lower Saxony, however there are 4 possibilities. Yellowless Red-Green Majority Widely expected until a week or so ago, is a Red-Green Majority with no Yellow, IE: a Socialist-Green Majority coalition government where the (Yellow/FDP) Liberals fail to make it into the parliament. Such an election would look something like this: 69 - Conservative 59 - Socialist 24 - Green Traditional Red-Green Majority With the Liberals nearing the 5% threshold, this is now a possibility. It would look something like this: 66 - Conservative 56 - Socialist 22 - Green 8 - Liberal Traditional Black-Yellow Majority The Conservatives (black) could manage to win enough votes to form a majority with their traditional Liberal allies. It would be somewhat like this: 69 - Conservative 54 - Socialist 21 - Green 8 - Liberal Tie Perhaps the most interesting scenario is what happens if the two sides happen to tie, like such: 68 - Conservative 55 - Socialist 21 - Green 8 - Liberal Both 'standard' coalitions would have 76 seats, and a non-standard coalition would have to be put together. The options for that are as follows: Traffic Light: A Red, Yellow, Green coalition lead by the Socialists and including both the Greens and Liberals. Jamaica Flag: A Black, Green, and Yellow coalition, lead by the Conservatives and including both the Greens and Liberals. Grand Coalition: A Red-Black coalition including the Conservatives and Socialists, lead by the Conservatives. The Liberals and Greens generally don't get along very well, but with the Greens "maturing" and the Liberals generally becoming "desperate" due to losses, the more usual-as-of-late Grand Coalition may not be the default option here. My projections are as follows. Between 66 and 69 - CDU (Conservative) Between 54 and 59 - SPD (Socialist) Between 21 and 24 - GRN (Green) Either (Zero) 0 or 8 - FDP (Liberal) With the last depending on if they just make the threshold of just miss it. ----ITALY---- I guess Voters in Italy have been reading this thread in massive numbers, as they are starting to make things interesting for once! The Socialists have been bleeding away support as Berlusconi continues to rack up new small parties to attach to his Conservative coalition. A large number of polls now show the gap down to 10 points or less. Averages are as follows: 36.83% - Socialist (Bersani) 28.13% - Conservative (Berlusconi) 14.03% - Centrist (Monti) 12.82% - Populist (Grillo) 4.72% - Progressive (Ingroia) What has happened is not only have the Conservatives been able to take a few points from the Populists, but the Progressives are inching up towards the threshold. Remember, the winner of the popular vote, even by 1 vote, wins at least 344 seats in the house, 55% of the seats, a majority. However, the Senate does things a bit differently. The winner of each Province gets at least 55% of the seats, in that province. With the electorate so divided, it starts to become more and more likely that Monti's strategy is working. Monti is specifically focusing on the Senate race to force whomever wins into a Senate minority, and thus, force them into a coalition with him. Likely in a bid to remain the Prime Minister. Since neither Bersani or Berlusconi seem to be actually running for the Prime Minister's job (likely to pull the strings from behind the scenes while someone else takes the blame) Monti could well actually win the election from 3rd place. ----ISRAEL---- Israel is actually the boring one this time, with not much in the way of changes since the last update. Lapid continues to suck up voters while Kadima solidifies it's place on the board. Not-Shas is back in obscurity, while the Nationalists seem to be sticking around. Current projection is as follows (note, includes trends that I see, may not match current polling data 100%) 32 - Conservative (Coalition of 2 parties) 17 - Labour 14 - Jewish (Coalition of 2 parties) 14 - Lapid (Liberalish policies) 11 - Shas 8 - Liberal (Livni's party) 6 - Torrah Party 6 - Progressives (Meretz) 4 - Hadash (Arab/Jewish) 4 - UAL (Islamist) 3 - Balad (Arab Party) 2 - Kadima (won most seats last time) This adds to 121. Chances are Hadash or UAL (one of them, not both) will in 3 and the other will win 4. The Nationalists also may win 2 seats if they manage to hit the threshold. I would expect the Conservatives, Jewish Party, Shas, and Torrah Party to form a coalition after this election. At projected support levels, this gives them 63 seats.
  21. Palestinians want the wealth and, especially the free healthcare, provided by Israel. They are more interested in butter than guns when they have access to said butter. It's the economy, give them a strong country and they'll have "first world problems" to worry about. One of the reasons a one-state solution has it's merits as well as significant difficulties.
  22. You are right - and that is a bad thing - and that is why we look down upon it. I would hope that in Bulgaria, there is outrage at the beating, as there would be here if our security forces did the same thing.
  23. I don't recall any beating of Bain when he tried to assassinate Marois
  24. On Israel annexing the West Bank: I specifically brought this up due to the possibility of a one-state solution. Polls taken of Palestinians (sadly, few and far between) show that a constant majority support a one state solution.
  25. I once was given a warning point on another forum for referring to certain countries as "loser countries" over and over When your official security guards feel the need to kick and beat someone, even if they've pointed a gun at the head of your leader You live in a loser country. If you are the guard, you are the loser, and this is your country. Loser country.
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