Vancouver King

What has become of the forums favorite liberal, Norman Chateau? No one could hijack a thread faster than Normie. All right then, I'll play leftest advocate: CTV, among others, has observed a stopping of CPC support at the 38-39% level. Could this be Canadians way of telling Stephen Harper, that yes we will give you the gov't, but only in a minority situation and depending on your performance in this pressure cooker, we will grant you a majority in a year or two?

The RCMP isn't campaigning against the Liberals, thats ridiculous. The Liberals might be as anti-Justice and anti-Police as you can get, but I'd be very hesitant to call into question the ethics of the RCMP on this. Anyone that conducted themselves in the manner that Goodale did on the income trust leak, would be investigated promptly by the police. The RCMP isn't campaigning agains the Liberals, its just simply that the Liberals broke the law. _________________________________________ The January 24th post mortem will show the RCMP's decision to publicly confirm their formal investigation into income trust leaks was the single most important factor in the looming Liberal debacle. The timing of the announcement was devastating to Martin as evidenced by tracking polls in the hours and days immediately following it's release. Does anyone truly believe the national force's management had no idea the effect their action would produce? My intuition says the RCMP has room fulls of files detailing corruption and questionable gov't actions, enough to leave little doubt in their minds that it is in Canada's interest to deny reelection to those responsible. This is their way of alerting the electorate to their view of integrity in national public affairs. This is not exactly campaigning, it is more a national institution's indirect signal to voters that corruption must remain front and centre during this election.

Yes, it's 75 kms East on the freeway but light years away from ever electing a Liberal candidate. This is Randy White's old riding where in 2004 the CPC rolled up a 20,000 vote plurality over the Liberal. Considering the NDP in 2004 came close to losing it's deposit in Abbottsford, and adding in the Conservative bandwagon rolling through the Fraser Valley, it borders on the bizarre that this Grit candidate actually thought he could bribe his way Ottawa.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}> That distant whirring sound you hear is incumbent Liberals testing their paper shredders.

The RCMP said that "information received" justified a criminal investigation of a leak from Finance. The national force would not take such action lightly, they would be fully aware of it's explosive political potential in the middle of an election. To take such actions against their political masters points to the gravity of the evidence they have uncovered.

So far only six posters have made a prediction on how many seats the CPC will end up with, and five of these are so ridiculously low it isn't even funny. Slavik44 ................ 102 Colby Cosh ............ 105 tml12 ..................... 106 Vancouver King ...... 110 August1991 ............ 113 Now if you were all to increase those numbers by at least a third before the end of this year, you won't have to endure ridicule at the start of the next one. Just trying to help. _____________________________________________________ My crystal ball is still cloudy on one point. Will the predicted carnage in Quebec materialize and wipe a dozen or more seats off the Liberal total? The Bloc is sounding almost inclusive this election appealing to ethnic minorities and disillusioned federalists. Harper's perfect campaign to date is further bolstered by news of RCMP investigation of Finance Dept income trust leak. Nothing like a renewed stench of corruption to skewer Liberal hopes. We've been told since the outset that the real campaign - the main event - begins Janaury 1st. My revised numbers after the preliminary round are: CPC: 116 Liberal: 103 Bloc: 63 NDP: 26 I'm ready to endure ridicule. <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just trying to help. <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Nothing I've read satisfactorily explains Harper's reasoning in not shaking hands. The CPC strategy is already paying dividends. Consider: Let's say the debate never takes place. Harper is still seen as a courageous volunteer willing to enter the lions den while Martin is running scared from a one on one with Duceppe. These perceptions are already in the CPC bag.

This is huge for Harper. The optics are positive, he can't lose by doing this. He might even be perceived as courageous outside of Quebec. Martin appears to be running from Duceppe and his desperation in Quebec is compounded by this analysis released today by Strategic Counsel for CTV and G&M: "with the current numbers that they are polling in Quebec, the Liberals would be reduced to seven seats and this number would not include Mr. Martin's own seat. Right now, there's a risk that the PM might lose his own seat." Unbelievable. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Wow wouldn't that be something! Harper can't lose in this debate, the ROC will see this in a very positive light! <{POST_SNAPBACK}> _______________________________________________________ The Strategic Counsel numbers get more interesting. Outside Quebec, the CPC is tied with the Liberals at 37% each. If the Quebec numbers hold the Libs will be down 18 seats before the first vote is counted in Ontario. I smell debacle.

Actually, some guy offered his vote for sale by posting it on EBay. Elections Canada intervened with the web site and explained the sellers intentions violated the Elections Act. I think the bidding reached $20.

[in truth A vote for the NDP = a vote for the NDP and their policies A vote for the Liberals = a vote for the Liberals and their policies A vote for the bloc = a vote for the bloc and their policies A vote for the conservatives = a vote for the conservatives and their policies <{POST_SNAPBACK}> ------------------------------------------- Except, of course, when voting strategically makes sense. The CPC candidate in my constituency has next to zero chance of winning. My highest priority is to punish the corrupt Libs, therefore I will vote NDP to block the incumbent Grit. See, there's other ways to rationalize your vote.

Le Soleil The idea is so bizarre (and why do I think that? - it's not bizarre at all) that I'm sure TQS will follow it up. Watch for Layton to insist that he wants to be present too. Now then, I'm not so sure the ratings will be much. Only several hundred thousand watched the first French debate. No, that's not the issue at all. Harper has no pretentions about his French. During the first French debate, several times he asked for questions to be repeated. This is seen well. His grammar is precise. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> This is huge for Harper. The optics are positive, he can't lose by doing this. He might even be perceived as courageous outside of Quebec. Martin appears to be running from Duceppe and his desperation in Quebec is compounded by this analysis released today by Strategic Counsel for CTV and G&M: "with the current numbers that they are polling in Quebec, the Liberals would be reduced to seven seats and this number would not include Mr. Martin's own seat. Right now, there's a risk that the PM might lose his own seat." Unbelievable.

How soon we forget. The stated reason why Layton pulled the plug on Martins govt was this: Martin would not back public health care with meaningful sanctions against provinces that allowed for-profit care. If you are in favor of the public health system don't vote CPC or Liberal.

It is testimony to Liberal's desperation that Martin chose to unleash his scripted emotional sequence at Duceppe during the English debate, not during the previous evenings French affair. Why no interest in capturing the hearts and minds of Quebecers? Obviously the staged patriotism was to woo wavering Ontario voters and not an attempt to impress the single minded electorate of his home province.

Scriblett: [Well I'm no gun lover, but making a campaign promise to ban something thats allready banned is a little, well,.....and this isn't the U.S. If they did implement tighter policing at the same time, then its likely that it factored into the statistics. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> I think Andrew Coyne had an interesting spin on the handgun announcement. The chorus of opposition that arose was identical to that of the original gun registry, ie. Tories, gun owners, Western farmers, and served to contrast the Conservatives to other parties. The legal right to own a handgun is not exactly a priority for urban Canada and reaction to Martin's statement served to push the CPC further from the political centre.

William Glberzon, 8 December 2005G & M ............................... The markets, like public life in this country, have become a free for all.

If these numbers hold up then I would put the blame on Harper's pronoucements on SSM. Most people do not care about the issue per se but the fact that Harper went out of his way to make an issue of it cemented his image as a Bush style social conservative which many urban voters intensely dislike. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Maybe he's a victim of his own honesty - he could have declared that SSM was effectively the law of the land and once elected, pulled a Liberal ploy by revisiting the issue early in his mandate. It would not be the first time a politician has said one thing and done another.

Hello, Norman. I was astonished to read those numbers today after Harper put up a respectable first week. Urban Ontario seems to have made it's mind up early in the campaign and frankly, I can't imagine any event that is going to turn such a lead around. Painful as it must be, the majority in this forum had better prepare for the worst.

Civil unions as a substitute for full marriage simply reinforces gays "difference" in the eyes of the law and the public. SSM is a human rights issue. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> So I guess that means everyone else in the world is a human rights abuser, eh? I find it incredible how many people will hear some liberal sound bite and without even engaging their forebrain assume it comes from the holy gospel. SSM is a human rights issue only since the Liberals changed their mind about five years ago, after saying it had nothing to do with human rights and that there would be no SSM in Canada. Are you gonna run off and demonstrate in front of the Swiss embassy because they're such cruel human rights abusers? <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Correct me if I'm wrong. Successive provincial supreme court decisions determined that SSM's - not civil unions - were allowed under equality provisions of the charter of rights. Should we run off and demonstrate outside Supreme Court? This thread was about Ont. Liberal supporters, not SSM, - where are the thread police when they are needed? - and the point I have tried to make is this: CPC loses when Harper suggests revisiting SSM. It reminds potential supporters that the intolerant label might actually have some substance.

Quote, Shoop: "Ontario is generally a middle of the road vote.Not too far right and not too far left. They will toss a government that appears arrogant and is plagued by scandal. One experiance with the NDP was enough , probably never again. Ontario will vote for a platform further right than Harper's current under certain circumstances and did with Mike Harris . To win Ontario you don't need most of Toronto but you do need most of the 905er's along the 401." <{POST_SNAPBACK}> <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Any respectable national poll (Ipsos, Decima, Ekos etc.) that shows CPC with clear lead (3+points) has the real potential of stampeding undecided and wavering Liberals into a winning consensus for change, a "let's throw the rascals out" sense. Such new-found respectability could take on a life of it's own and demonstrate the awesome power of polling to influence voters choices. BTW, quit being so tough on Normie.

And because they are sophisticated, they know that one innocent slip of the tongue doesn't mean that they should be holding their noses when voting this fine lady back in. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Hedy Fry's "innocent slip of the tongue" got her turfed from Cabinet. KKK crosses burning in Prince George? She was the only one in BC not repulsed. To her credit, despite having her obituary written more than once, she apparently has a first rate riding organization that delivers every known supporter to the polls. BTW, the numbers of well-heeled voters - Liberal voter fodder - increase every week with new Yaletown, Georgia St. and Stanley Park condos sprouting like mushrooms.

Civil unions as a substitute for full marriage simply reinforces gays "difference" in the eyes of the law and the public. SSM is a human rights issue.

Quote; Normanchateau: His plan to re-visit same sex marriage is not only not a vote getter but alienates large numbers of Canadians, even those who aren't gay or lesbian. Although Ontario is not as socially liberal as Quebec or British Columbia, neither is it as socially conservative as Alberta. Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal all have huge gay and lesbian communities and it's inconceivable to me that Harper will win a single seat in Canada's three largest cities. CPC needs a more effective leader, perhaps a populist like John Diefenbaker who was able to win 50 seats in Quebec. And his vote to exclude sexual orientation from hate crimes legislation won't yield a lot of votes from gays, lesbians, transsexuals, bisexuals or anyone else sexually atypical. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> According to another current thread they are only 1% of the electorate, give or take a sex change. You touch on a major issue that Harper apologists have no response to - rejection of CPC platform & policies in the nations three largest cities. Harper seems to continue catering to his largely rural, very small "c" conservative core support. He could adopt a freshened cities agenda in full confidence that his basic supporters simply have nowhere else to go. It is becoming obvious to Stephen Harper the political realm is a cruel place, that Liberal corruption and his generally fine start to the campaign have yielded nothing in additional support. Urban voters won't turn the clock back to the 1950's.

Hmmmm.... ....very interesting. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Read somewhere that RCMP are "investigating whether there should be an investigation". Their preliminary report is due the morning of January 24, 2006.

No info on undecided other than I consider myself among them. Isn't conventional wisdom that undecided divide out exactly as decided do? BTW, my numbers will change too, probably after Vancouver debate #1. Also, so far every post on this thread predicts an increased number of seats for the Bloc & NDP. Hmmmmm...there's a pattern forming here.