Newfoundlander

Incumbent MHA Rex Hillier lost the Liberal nomination in Conception Bay South (CBS) tonight. Hillier was narrowly elected in a by-election last October in a seat that was considered a PC stronghold. Steve Porter - who challenged Hillier a year ago for the nomination - was the successful candidate. If Hillier wants to make a bid in another seat the only logical option for him is to challenged Premier Paul Davis, who represents the neighbouring district. Hillier actually succeeded Davis as a town councillor in CBS when Davis entered provincial politics.

Lorraine Micahel announced last week that she's running in St. John's East Quidi Vidi. George Murphy announced he's not running for re-election after just one term.

Due to the reduction in the number of seats in the House of Assembly two Liberal MHAs have announced this past weekend that they will be challenging one another for their party's nomination in the district of St. George's - Grand Lake. Stelman Flynn and Scott Reid were both elected in by-elections only last year. This nomination battle is taking place on the west coast but two other Liberal MHAs are suppose to square off against each other in a district on the Avalon Peninsula. Steve Crocker - who was also elected last year - and Sam Slade - who was elected in a 2013 by-election - announced after the preliminary report that they would both seek their party's nomination in Trinity Bay de Verde (which is the current name of Crocker's district but the boundaries are changed). As well, Liberal MHA Jim Bennett's seat was largely merged with his leader's seat in the redistribution. While he currently represents a district on the northern peninsula he has announced he's going to run for the Liberal nomination in Lewisporte-Twillingate, which is nowhere near his current district. Part of the district is represented by the Speaker of the House of Assembly - who isn't running for re-election - and part is represented by Natural Resources minister Derrick Dalley, who is expected to run there. The PC caucus fared much better than the Liberal caucus with the redistribution, despite being larger. After the initial report, Child, Youth and Family Services minister Sandy Collins announced that he would switch to the neighbouring district of Gander - which is currently held by a former minister who's running federally - due to his seat being merged with the Finance minister Ross Wiseman's district. Wiseman has been around since 2001 so I wouldn't be surprised to see him decide not to seek re-election. As well tomorrow NDP leader Earle McCurdy will announce where's he is going to run. He has done polling in the district of St. John's West, a seat the NDP nearly won in 2011. The seat is currently held by PC cabinet minister Dan Crummell - first elected in 2011 - and the Liberal candidate had been former MP Siobhan Coady. Coady will have to secure the nomination again now that the districts have been changed, though St. John's West didn't change much. Former NDP leader Lorraine Michael and MHA George Murphy still haven't announced where they will run. Part of Michael's district was merged with Murphy's district. They're suppose to announce where they are running this week.

The series finale of our local CBC political show featured a leaders debate. I doubt anyone here is interested in watching the full thing but it was pretty good. In the related articles section of the page there are some clips from the debate. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/on-point-hosts-the-first-leaders-debate-for-2015-election-1.3111714

Here's the final report of the electoral boundaries commission. http://www.nledbc.ca/reports There were no substantial changes from the preliminary report that was released in April. The legislation surrounding removing 8 district is now being debated in the House of Assembly. The government is also changing the fixed date election legislation to delay the election by about a month so it doesn't conflict with the federal election. As well they're also changing the rules around calling by-elections. In NL the government must call by-election within 3 months of the seat becoming vacant. That will now change to 6 months in an election year. Former cabinet minister Kevin O'Brien has announced he's running federally so under the current legislation it was possible that his resignation could have led to a by-election before the provincial election.

The new CRA poll out this morning saw the NDP surge in support. They're now at 22% compared to the PCs at 27% and the Liberals at 50%. In the last poll which was conducted throughout February the NDP had been at 13% while the PCs were at 31% and the Liberals at 56%. Dissatisfaction with the government also increased. 47% approve of the government while 46% disapprove of their performance. 56% approved of the government in the last poll. It's not surprising after the budget to see dissatisfaction up and support for the PCs down. However, the Liberals might be a bit worried that they couldn't take advantage of the PCs drop. Here's the poll. http://cra.ca/support-grows-for-nl-ndp/ The Premier also announced that the provincial election will occur on November 30, 2015. The electoral boundaries report was submitted to government this morning and was tabled in the house this afternoon. There's still no copy posted online yet.

Yeah, that never really gained much traction.

I guess the collapse of oil prices is kind of the big issue in a sense of the problems it's causing. The province's deficit is now pegged at $1.1 billion for this year and the government is looking at raising income taxes and the HST by two points to rein in the deficit. They've also announced they will not move forward with some capital projects like a new mental health hospital or a new prison. There's also questions around government spending and money not being saved etc. etc. Like most provinces health care and the economy are big issues, but the collapse of oil prices has changed the conversation around those issues.

While the Liberals haven't been having a great six months, the NDP haven't had a great couple of years and the PCs have had a tough four years. After placing second in the popular vote in 2011 - third in seats - the NDP had continued to see their support rise and by 2013 they had overtaken the PCs for first place. (Up until then the PCs had continuously led in opinion polls since probably 2001 or 2002) However, by the end of 2013 the NDP saw their support collapse after a caucus revolt against leader Lorraine Michael led to two MHAs - and many supporters - leave the party. Michael survived a leadership review in May 2014, but that was largely because so many people had left the party. The NDP performed poorly in four by-elections after the leadership review and Lorraine evenrually called it quits this January. Earle McCurdy was elected leader of the party in March. McCurdy was the president of the Fisheries Union from just after the cod moratorium in 1992 until the end of 2014. He was a household name in the province but he's a polarizing figure among the public and even his union. He's a gifted politician but he has taken over a party that trails badly in the polls and has little to no on the ground organization. We haven't heard a whole lot from McCurdy since he won the leadership, besides responses to issues like the budget and whatnot. He's likely focused more on organizing the party for this fall. Had we heard more from him over the last number of months I think the party could have benefitted at the expense of the other two parties, though that may still happen in Monday's poll. I'll give some information on the PCs probably tomorrow.

The Liberals have been riding high in the polls for a good while now, after coming third in the popular vote in 2011. They've also won a slew of by-elections, winning seats formally held by the PCs. The Liberals have been having a rough year but I don't know if it'll show in the polls, due to anger with the PCs and no alternative in the NDP. The Liberals had brought up the idea of cutting the number of seats and when Premier Paul Davis went through with it the Liberals were caught off guard. There were numerous flip flops on Dwight Ball's part and disagreements within the caucus over the new electoral map. They will also have to redo 20-odd nominations and incumbents will be forced to face off against each other. The party has also faced criticism, similar to Trudeau, regarding not having much in the way of policy. A "policy announcement" recently that they had talked about for weeks turned out to be a plan to develop some economic policies by this September. The public seem to be getting sick of this. Last week they announced they had paid off the party's debt, which they've had since 2003, but it turned out afterwards that three banks waived their interest and penalties. They paid back $500,000 on a debt that had reached almost $900,000. The party did not immediately give details on how much they paid back and whether they had debt written off. It got messy for them and hasn't gone over well with people. The PCs did get a similar deal in the early 2000s. I will provide some more info on the other parties in a little while. But I don't like the Liberals.

This Monday will likely get the ball rolling for the upcoming election. The Electoral Boundaries Commission will release its final report Monday morning that will see 8 seats removed from the House of Assembly. That afternoon the government will table legislation to reduce the number of seats and delay the election till the end of November so that it doesn't occur at the same time as the federal election. With the electoral boundaries in place the parties will likely spend the summer nominating candidates. As well, Corporate Research Associates will be releasing a poll Monday morning. It will be the first poll since the provincial budget and the first with Earle McCurdy as leader of the NDP. Yesterday it was announced that the PC Party had hired Darell Fowlie as a campaign strategist. Fowlie was a Deputy Minister in David Alwards office when he was Premier of New Brunswick. Today the Liberals announced that a new communications person has been hired in the Official Opposition Office. As well they have hired an ad agency for their campaign that has previously worked on campaigns for the PC Party.

He couldn't say that publicly? We had a minister quit in Newfoundland and Labrador last year due to a scandal and the premier had no issue saying afterwards that had he not resigned he would have been fired. Just more evidence that Trudeau has few leadership skills.

Scott Andrews pointed to how he was treated by members of the Liberal caucus - those who leaked information - when he talked about not trying to re-join the Liberal caucus. Scott never said what was in the report, besides saying he accepted it, and Trudeau was to afraid to speak on the matter. There may not have been wrongdoing. If there was wrongdoing why wouldn't Trudeau just say he's not welcomed back in his caucus?

How do you know that?

They weren't really excluded from rejoining caucus. Trudeau stated that he accepted their decisions not to try and rejoin the Liberal caucus. It was interesting wording by Trudeau. If he has proof they did something wrong you would think he'd be fine with saying they are banned from caucus.

Seeing that tax dollars pay for the bulk of health care services, no it's not free.

No sense arguing with lefties over debt, they can't seem to comprehend it.

Elliott never enter politics till 2006, several years after Mike Harris had retired and the PC Party lost power. And Hudak was never premier so he didn't have a cabinet, but yes she served as his deputy leader. I highly doubt many people will be thinking of Hudak when they vote in the 2018 election.

Why?

Patrick Brown has a lot of support in the party. He's got a number of federal MPs on his as well people within the party. Christine Elliott has a bigger profile and more public support but I think Brown will be able to pull a good number. It's all about who they can sign up to vote.

It appears Lisa MacLeod will drop out of the race Thursday or Friday.

How do you know that?

Because Nash won't be an MP?

Things are working out well because the economy is improving, they're in surplus and they are able to offer Canadians tax relief and some other goodies in an election year. Conservatives are likely quite happy with polling that shows Canadians support fighting ISIS.

While I'd like to see Harper step down and a better leader take over I don't see it happening. Besides the Duffy trial, things are working out well for Harper.