Newfoundlander

There's still a cod fishery, just not to the extent that it was. And there's plenty more valuable fish in the ocean besides cod. The fishery is a $1 billion industry in Newfoundland and Labrador alone.

A Minister from BC has held it on occasion but I guess because it's a more important industry to the economy of the Atlantic region.

Harper's polices - for the most part - weren't the reason he lost the election. It was his politics. People talk about how the Conservatives need to move further to the centre to win - yet Harper won three times - but what policies have the Conservatives been promoting that are so far to the right?

Judy Foote seems the likely choice from Newfoundland and Labrador. We usually want the Fisheries post down here so maybe she'll get Fisheries and Oceans.

With the federal election over Newfoundland and Labrador is getting ready to kick off their provincial election. It's expected to be called in about 2 weeks. Liberals almost have a full slate. The seats they have left are in districts that they are either having trouble getting someone for - as they're taking on strong PCs - or they have big names that have been waiting to announce. The PCs have 16 candidates left to nominate. They had steadily been nominating two candidates a week for a while but that hasn't been happening recently. The NDP have been nominating candidates but the last I checked on their website their was no indication as to how many they had.

Jason Kenney's close ties with Harper may hurt him after the crushing defeat last night. I'd like to see a fresh face optimistic conservative take over the party. The idea of Michael Chong is quite intriguing but I don't know if he could pull off a win in the party after everything that's happened. However, he or someone else could come in and pull a Patrick Brown. There are some new MPs in Quebec - Gerald Deltell being the most high profile - maybe someone from that province could become leader? Lisa Raitt is a good choice and could mount a strong campaign. Former New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord. Give him some time and Erin O'Toole might be able to be a strong competitor. He'd be a fresh face, he's got a good background, and despite only being in politics a few years he moved up quickly and really cleaned up the mess he was left at Veteran's Affairs by Julian Fantino. I imagine his father having served as a provincial politician could also be a help when it comes to organization.

Mandatory voting is dumb.

If Harper is re-elected it'll be interested to see who will fill key vacancies in his cabinet. The Ministers of Justice, Industry, Heritage, and International Development are not seeking re-election and a number of other ministers could lose re-election.

Bill Morneau has been touted as Trudeau's likely Finance Minister. I doubt very much that Goodale would go back there and McCallum definitely won't because he's an awful communicator. Garneau is Foreign Affairs critic but I wouldn't be surprised to see Andrew Leslie go into that role. Trudeau has also pledged to have an equal number of men and women in his cabinet. Judy Foote is considered to be the obvious choice from Newfoundland and Labrador, she currently serves as the party's whip.

It's not clear who will win the election just yet but who could we expect Harper, Trudeau or even Mulcair put in their cabinet? Who will be the Minister of Finance, Justice, Foreign Affairs, National Defence, Health, etc.?

They led in severals polls for a while and spent probably two years over 30%.

New quarterly poll out today by CRA. Liberals are at 48%, PCs at 27%, and NDP at 25%. Undecideds also up. While the Liberals still dominate they've had a sizeable drop over the last year. In November 2014, they had the support of 60%. The NDP have been the beneficiary as they were at 10% then. This is also the first time since 2013 - following the NDP caucus revolt - that the Liberals have fallen below 50% in a poll conducted by CRA. Luckily for the their two main opponents are splitting the remainder of the vote.

Liberal MHA Jim Bennett - who ran for the leadership in 2013 and also served as leader for three months in 2006 before being forced to resign - lost the party nomination in the district of Lewisporte Twillingate this week. Bennett was elected in 2011 in St. Barbe, the district was merged with Liberal leader Dwight Ball's seat and Liberal MHA Chris Mitchelmore's seat earlier the year. Lewisporte Twillingate was nowhere near the district he now holds. I'd imagine the party is delighted to see him gone. He has made numerous idiotic comments over the years and has been nothing but a headache for the party.

Judy Manning secured the PC nomination last night in Placentia St. Mary's. About 1000 people voted and she received about 60% of the vote. The Liberals and NDP do not currently have candidates in place, though at least 3 people have come forward for the Liberals.

When Paul Davis became premier last year he sparked outrage after he appointed Judy Manning - a virtually unknown St. John's - as Minister of Justice and Public Safety as well as Attorney General. Despite numerous by-elections opportunities Manning refused to run in either of them and was instead opting to run in her home district of Placentia St. Mary's when the seat became available. (Long story but Felix Collins - who was then and is now again the Attorney General - had already said he would not run again in that district. It is believed he had indicated he'd resign his seat for Manning but never did) Her whole not running was a big issue and other stuff that probably wasn't a big deal became a controversy just because she was the un-elected minister. Back in March she was removed from cabinet when Davis decided to reduce the number of ministers. Manning was supposedly quite upset over the whole thing. Anyway, today the PCs opened nominations in Placentia St. Mary's and sources say that Manning will be seeking the party's nomination. She has not done interviews since leaving cabinet and it was unclear whether she would still run. She's also expected to face a challenge for the nomination. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/judy-manning-seeking-pc-nomination-in-placentia-st-mary-s-sources-say-1.3157462

Paul Martin had a career outside of politics running a large company. Goodale moved his way up through the federal cabinet so he had experience running departments. Flaherty did the same thing in Ontario before becoming that province's finance minister. While it's obviously not a necessity it'd be nice for a finance minister to have run some sort of large organization.

I should have posted the link. Thanks. The PCs were supposedly planning to announcing their election team next week. So that will likely be delayed a while.

David Miller could be an interesting recruit for the NDP.

If things had not been going bad enough for the PC Party, today they fired their recently hired campaign strategist Darell Fowlie. Fowlie was a deputy minister in the office of former New Brunswick Premier David Alward and is tied to a scandal in that province.

Jim Flaherty had held several cabinet portfolios in Ontario, including the finance portfolio.

Cullen wouldn't be a scary pick by any means but he doesn't have much of a background for the job, if that matters.

I'm well aware.

Who's it going to be? Lawrence Martin has an article in the Globe and Mail today about the NDP needing someone who is Finance Minister material now that they are positioned to form a government. He notes that many in the current caucus don't have the credentials to be finance minister, I'm sure many would argue differently, but I tend to agree. Tom Mulcair is a fairly centrist leader and I would imagine he wants to make sure he has someone with solid credentials and a clean background who won't spook the business community. Peggy Nash, Nathan Cullen and Linda McQuaig just don't cut it. Martin also mentions that the Liberals have recruited Bill Morneau, who has been dubbed Trudeau's Finance Minister. He mentions that they have a few other options within their current caucus; Scott Brison, Ralph Goodale, John McCallum and Chrystia Freeland. I always felt that Joe Oliver was a temporary Finance Minister and that he would be replaced if the Conservative's were re-elected. Win or lose, 2015 will most likely be Harper's last election so I always figured his post-election cabinet would see potential successors go into more prominent roles. However, with the loss of so many ministers there may not be a suitable replacement for Oliver. I could have seen James Moore move into the Finance post after his time as Industry Minister, a major economic portfolio, but he's leaving. Peter McKay and John Baird were of course possibilities. Jason Kenney could move into the role but his reputation isn't as good as it once was. Lisa Raitt has been a solid performer but I don't believe she speaks French. Tony Clement? I'm not sure if they've recruited any high profile candidates who could take on such a job. So thoughts? It's still possible that either party could form government and with the economy having issues more attention may be paid to the parties economic teams.

Former Minister Kevin O'Brien resigned his seat today to run federally. O'Brien left cabinet earlier in the year after spending about ten years in various posts. At the time of the cabinet shuffle he announced he was planning to run federally.

A poll out today is devastating for the PC Party. The party has now fallen back to third place - in 2013 they were in third for part of the year - with the NDP having surged. Abacus released a poll this morning showing that the NDP has gone from 9% in March to 25%. The PCs have fallen from 32% to 21% while Liberals went from 57% to 53%. Even worse for the party are the regional numbers. Back in March there was a big discrepancy in support for the PCs throughout the province. Their numbers were pitiful in Labrador and the west but improved big time in the central and eastern areas of Newfoundland. However, now their numbers are low everywhere. With these sort of numbers winning seats will be a big struggle for them. http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/VOCM_ProvincialBallot_June20151.pdf