
Newfoundlander
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Two polls have been released already in the Newfoundland and Labrador election, both with similar results. This one by Forum I find particularly interesting. It shows the Liberals have jumped since the federal election, they lead with 65%, the PCs are second with 21% and the NDP are third with 13%. What I found interesting about this poll is the demographic breakdowns and some of the underlying numbers. For instance in the 65 plus age group, PC support is 33% compared to 55% support for the Liberals. The Liberals obviously have a big lead but it narrows greatly. The most interesting thing appears to be Dwight Ball's support. While his approval rating is higher than his opponents and he is the preferred choice for premier, he trails his party significantly. Only 59% of people who said they will support the Liberal Party in the election approve of Dwight Ball's performance as leader. The rest either disapprove or have no opinion. 78% of Tories approve of Paul Davis and 68% of New Democrats support Earle McCurdy. As well, when asked who would make the best premier only 54% of Liberals chose Ball. 74% of PC supporters said Davis was the best choice for premier. The Tories are making this election about leadership and focusing on Paul Davis. This poll seems to make it clear why that's their strategy. While they might be out of the game when it comes to forming government it's quite possible they could close the gap considerably if Ball is unable to impress during this election. He's been leading the party for four years now and many still don't have an option of him. http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/cc34a487-0298-449e-8334-86690c3fbba3Newfoundland%20Issues%20News%20Release%20(2015%2011%2006)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
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Beth Crosbie - the daughter of John Crosbie - was nominated today to run for the PCs in the district of Virginia Waters Pleasantville. The St. John's district is the only one in the city without an incumbent. City councillor Bernard Davis is running for the Liberals and well known - and not for the right reasons - criminal lawyer Bob Buckingham is running for the NDP.
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CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Most people have resorted to BS here so it was to tiering to go through all the posts. Anyways, Rob Nicholson has announced he's seeking the interim leadership of the party, which doesn't surprise me at all. I expect Denis Lebel will be the final person to throw his name in for the job. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Because Trudeau lured her back from New York to be his star candidate and has had her as a key advisor on economic issues. She's also a woman, which he needs. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
I don't know if you'll see him go into cabinet. The current portfolio that would relate to municipal affairs would seem to be Minister of Infrastructure, Communities and Intergovernmental Affairs. With a 25 member cabinet and with Chrystia Freeland and Bill Morneau appearing to be shoo-ins I don't see how Vaughn would make the cut too, especially considering their ridings all border each other. Maybe a parliamentary secretary gig related to cities? -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
I don't understand the idea as to why a Prime Minister would appoint a leader of another political party as a minister? -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
If the NDP continue to think that then they're doomed. -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Seeing Justin Trudeau led his party to victory being a "lightweight" it seems to resonate with Canadians. -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Diane Finley has deep roots but Denis Lebel would also have a good shot if he enters. While having a woman at the helm would be good for the party having a Quebecker would also be good. Lebel is said to have done a good job as Harper's Quebec lieutenant and played a key role in the party's success in this election. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
There is a Minister of State for Science and Technology. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
You also don't want to end up in a situation where say Marc Garneau said "this" in 2014 as Foreign Affairs critic but as Foreign Affairs Minister in 2015 he did the opposite. At least by having a new person in the portfolio you're able to distance the party somewhat from past comments said by a critic. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
I could see Joyce Murray becoming Deputy Prime Minister and possibly Environment minister, seeing it's a post she held in BC. -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Denis Lebel or Diane Finley will likely be interim leader. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Opps!! Hahaha -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
What people have to remember is that Trudeau has promised a smaller cabinet - supposedly with 25 ministers - with gender parity. If you look at geography there's going to be a lot of people - particularly men - not going in. It seems there will be 12 men and 12 women with Harper TRUDEAU being the 25th member of cabinet, if that's the size he goes with. PEI, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and the Territories did not elect any women Liberal MPs. Nova Scotia elected one woman and New Brunswick elected a few. However, Scott Brison and Dominic LeBlanc are basically guaranteed seats from those two provinces. If you consider than Brison, LeBlanc, Wayne Easter, Goodale, an MP from Calgary, an MP from Edmonton and an MP from the Territories are going in then that means only 5 other men will be going into cabinet. -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
He spoke neither official language and served for ten years! There was talk about how Trudeau's French was not very strong and that he struggled in the French debates because of it. He won 40 seats in the province, including in francophone areas. -
CPC Leadership Predictions
Newfoundlander replied to cybercoma's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Harper had two young children. Trudeau has three young children. A number of other Prime Ministers had young children. As well she speaks French, just not fluently. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
John McCallum has a solid resume but he is a weak communicator, he'd be a poor choice for Finance. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Trudeau has said that he'll work with the provinces and that a one size fits all solution doesn't work. He's also noted some provinces are doing their fair share. Dion on the other hand wanted to impose a national carbon tax that didn't take into consideration the provinces. As well if Dion was so respected on the environment why hasn't he been the party's critic for the area? I think Intergovernmental Affairs would be more likely. Jody Wilson-Raybould's name has been touted as a possibility and she would seem like a good choice. There's also people like Kirsty Duncan and Joyce Murray. I saw a journalist comment recently that opposition critics often don't become ministers for their critic areas. I'm assuming this is because they'd probably have to backtrack on past comments they made as critic. While Dion wasn't a critic for Environment he'd have to backtrack on his views from when he was leader. -
The Next Canadian Liberal Cabinet
Newfoundlander replied to Big Guy's topic in Federal Politics in Canada
Stephane Dion ran on the environment in 2008 and his views then contradict what Trudeau's views are now. It wouldn't make much sense to put him in the environment portfolio, would just lead to issues regarding his green shift plan.