CITIZEN_2015

I just received an automated call asking me about who I wish to vote if voting was to take place today!!. I didn't catch the pollster's name though. Also asked about my second choice.

Mid 70's to 1994 money was not cheap. In fact the interest rates around early 80's hit 22%!!!!!!. And around 11 to 13% for most of the time in that period. But yes it was Paul Martin and his famous phrase of "Hail or high water" we will get the deficit out followed by severe cut backs to transfer payments to provinces and federal cut backs so he balanced budget on the back of health care and social programs and government programs. But it was a necessary evil at the time. But things are different now. We can spend a bit now that we have a balanced budget already in order to kick start the economy. Today stats out that Canada lost some fifty or sixty thousand full time jobs (and in its place Canada gained seventy thousand part time jobs) and latest economic predictions are for slow economy to continue at about 1% for the entire year (2015).

I just heard this on CTV news, Power Play (so I don't have a link) by Nanos and the question was Who will perform best on the economy: Trudeau - 39% Harper - 33% Mulcair - 16 or 18% (can't remember). Economy was the card to play with for conservatives all along and now they are behind even on that front!!!. No wonder they have to pick niqab now to gain support.

No I was suggesting the possibility of conservative voters moving to Liberals not NDP when they see political manipulations and interference. They may feel they had enough.

I think the Liberal lead is not all from NDP only as conservative vote is down too from 31 to 34% to now 30%. NDP votes in fact is up from 22 to 23% to 24%. I think that Intelligent and passionate Canadian voters are beginning to realize the political manipulations, and politics of division and conquer of certain cold blooded, heartless uncaring party with a line up recent history of scandals and corruptions.

Innovative Research just out .. Liberals now leading conservatives by 5 percentage point. Yay Liberals - 35% Conservatives - 30% NDP - 24% These are the findings of an Innovative Research Group (INNOVATIVE) poll conducted from October 5th to October 8th, 2015. This online survey of 3,417 Canadians was conducted http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/sites/default/files/pdf%2C%20doc%2C%20docx%2C%20jpg%2C%20png%2C%20xls%2C%20xlsx/151009_IRG29%20Wave%206%20Hill%20Times%20Oct%209%20Release.pdf Attached link contains over 100 pages of analysis!!. ps - I have problems copying charts and graphs. How did you do it waldo?

67% of Canadians also want change according t latest Nanos poll while only 26% want the same ...................

The same pollster was reporting an 8 point lead for Tories just last week so I don't mind what they reported today though contrary to all other recent polls but the direction and the pace of it is very pleasant.

Liberal lead confirmed again by Nanos (October 9, 2015) National Ballot - Support for the major federal parties in the nightly Nanos tracking stands at 34.0% for the Liberals, 31.0% for the Conservatives, 25.0% for the NDP, and 4.2% for the Greens nationally. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, the Liberals continue to have the highest level of accessible vote at 49.1% followed by the NDP at 42.6%, the Conservatives at 39.2%, the Greens at 24.4%, and the BQ at 31.2% (Quebec only). Many pollsters showing Liberals at 34% past couple of days and conservatives around 30 to 31%. and NDP at 25% and I believe these are what the numbers are right now. http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151008%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf Liberals closing in on NDP in Quebec at 26.5% and NDP at 30% and Conservatives at 21.4%.

No sorry it was me. Stéphane is my friend's name as why I mistyped.

Another poll just released and another great news!!!!. Leger Marketing just placed Liberals ahead by 4% at 34%, Tories at 30% and NDP at 25%. This study was conducted online across all Canadian regions with citizens who are eligible to vote in Canada. For this study, 2,087 respondents, including 1,006 in Quebec, 18 years of age or over, were surveyed between October 5 and October 7, 2015. Léger overrepresented the Quebec sample in order to obtain more accurate results for this province. However, when looking at national total figures, all regions, including Quebec, were weighted back to reflect the actual size of each region. In Quebec, Liberals tied with NDP at 28% and conservatives at 20%. Even niqab is not working for conservatives now. They have to find another subject to try to exploit and divide and conquer now!!!. http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20151008.pdf Justin Trudeau is now the first choice for Canadians as Prime Minister - 23% Stephen Harper second choice - 22% Thomas Mulcair third at 21% None of above - 13% Don't know - 12%

Which pollster showed that? I must have missed it.

A new EKOS poll just out placing Liberal in a numerical lead for the first time since February .....If all these recent polls especially the ones today (similarly Forum placed them in lead by 4 points today) do not show momentum for Liberals I don't know what do!!!!. And yes I agree it comes from NDP supporters jumping ship as they see Liberals as the only force capable of blocking a nightmare. But momentum is momentum regardless of where it comes from. Well done Trudeau and Liberals. Keep up the good work. [Ottawa – October 8, 2015] The Liberals have been on a sustained rise for nearly a week and they now hold a statistically insignificant lead. At 34.1 points, the party is enjoying its highest support levels since February. The Conservatives are close behind at 32.5 points, while the NDP remains mired in the low 20s. The most notable regional shifts are Ontario and Quebec. The Liberals have moved into a clear lead in Ontario where the NDP seem to be fading. In Quebec, the Liberals are clearly on the rise. The Conservatives continue to do well, particularly outside of Montreal and Western Quebec. ................................ http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_8_2015.pdf

Unions and Muslim societies have come out and said there is NO niqab wearing person in Public Sector for God's sake.They are using a non-existence issue to build support. They are playing on naive people's emotions. Fear mongering and division. To divide and conquer as Trudeau said and yes as Trudeau said stop the nonsense before someone really gets hurt. No election win worth endangering the health or even lives of innocent women. And btw those who attack women are nothing but big cowards. Monsters and same goes for those who exploit emotions for political gains.

It is a great list marcus but in MY view, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT in those ridings where there is a tight race between Liberals and NDP should be included too in the chart and your post and in those ridings I believe strongly that NDP supporters should strategically vote for the Liberals because it is the Liberals who only have a chance to defeat the conservatives now and those few seats MAY MAKE A DIFFERENCE between a Tory minority and a Liberal minority governments. In ridings where there is a tight race between the Liberals and NDP (and there are plenty) if the NDP supporters vote for NDP and refuse to strategically vote for Liberals in effect they may very likely cause the election of a conservatives by vote split and by their votes for NDP. In other words they are effectively voting for the conservatives and will help to elect a conservative government if they stick to their votes for NDP. They should vote for Liberals who appear to be a few seats short of forming the next government unlike NDP who stands no chance.

Honestly I am both surprised and confused what you gentlemen are talking about when denying Liberal momentum which I view it as a great thing because I believe at this stage of the game whoever has the momentum will be the winner. Here is the evidence........ Forum poll showed a 6% lead for Tories on September 29 (9 days ago) and now same pollster is suggesting a 4% Liberal lead. EKOS suggested a 9% lead for Tories on September 22, a 7% Tory lead on September 29 and a 4.7% lead on October 5 and now only statistical tie of 1.8%. Nanos research consistently puts Liberals ahead in the month of October at least numerically ahead on all past 8 days in October. In September it was a switch between Liberals, NDP and conservatives. CBC's poll tracker which takes the average of all polls puts Liberals ahead both numerically and in seat projections for first time since I have been monitoring this poll.

In my view CBC's poll tracker is the best indication of who has the momentum and that clearly shows Liberals have the momentum. They numerically exceeded the conservatives in both popular vote and seat projection today for first time since I am monitoring this poll tracker.

And my guess is Liberal momentum will only accelerate in coming days.

Liberals have the momentum based on polls released today. Conservative party's build on division strategy is not working. Polls released today: Forum puts Liberals at 35% and conservatives at 31%. In Ontario, the Liberals hold a slim lead with 38 per cent support, the Conservatives are sitting at 33 per cent and the NDP has dropped to 23 per cent. In Quebec, where the controversy over the niqab face veil worn continues to rage, the NDP remain in front ahead of the Liberals 34 per cent to 24 per cent support. The Conservatives sit at 23 per cent, CBC tracking poll puts Liberal ahead numerically both in popular vote (32.9% versus 32.4%) and in seats (127 for liberals and 124 for conservatives). The Signal puts conservatives numerically ahead at 33.3% versus 32.7% for Liberals however projects more seats for Liberals at 132 versus 130. Nanos poll put Liberals numerically ahead at 33.5% versus 32.7% for conservatives.

Another statistical tie between liberals and conservatives (Nanos poll released October 8) National Ballot – Support for the federal parties stands at 33.5% for the Liberals, 31.6% for the Conservatives, 24.2% for the NDP, and 4.6% for the Greens nationally. • Accessible Voters – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that party, 49.3% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.4% would consider voting NDP, 40.9% would consider voting for the Conservatives, 24.3% would consider the Greens, and 30.2% of Quebecers would consider the BQ. http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151006%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf

Who has the momentum?. This is the big mystery to me that I am trying to determine.

Source of confusion is that opposite directions they show in their polls (Liberals losing the lead in Nanos and conservatives losing the lead in Ekos). I expected both showing one not both losing lead but yes in both cases they show statistical tie. I am trying to figure out who is gaining and who is losing because whoever is enjoying the momentum just 11 days to election is the one who would form the next government. But it is hard to determine that now. I stand by my seat projections earlier in the week. I anticipated a small Liberal minority government as I believe (my own analysis not from the polls) that the Liberals have the momentum and it will be 30% to 32% versus 33% to 35% in favor of Liberals on election day. I put my trust in Canadian compassion and intelligence. Most Canadians will realize the politics of division and manipulations by then

EKOS just out and shows conservatives lead narrowed to under 2 points which is a statistical tie for first time. EKOS is the one who took many by surprise by showing a near conservative majority on September 29, showing the conservatives leading by 7 points. AFTER 20-DAY LEAD, CONSERVATIVES NOW FIND THEMSELVES IN A STATISTICAL TIE A TALE OF TWO PROVINCES? [Ottawa – October 7, 2015] After holding a statistically significant lead for 20 consecutive days, the Conservative Party’s lead has shrunk to just under two points and the party is now statistically tied with the Liberal Party who, not even two months ago, were in danger of being squeezed out of what had looked like a Conservative-NDP race. conservatives have overtaken both NDP and Liberals in Quebec but Liberals well ahead in Ontario now. http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_7_2015.pdf And I am more confused than ever by these polls that one released this morning showing a narrowing Liberal lead (Nanos) and the other showing a narrowing conservative lead (Ekos) both used to show big leads not long ago for their statistically tied leading party and both released today!!!!!.

And btw, La Presse too endorsed Trudeau as the Prime Minister of Canada. Last time in 2011 they had endorsed the conservatives.

No election win (is) worth pitting Canadians against Canadians’: Trudeau says of niqab debate Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau urged Harper to dial back the rhetoric. He said Harper’s divide-and-conquer approach “is unworthy of the office he holds and he needs to stop because no election win (is) worth pitting Canadians against Canadians.” “To the prime minister directly, stop this before someone truly gets hurt,” Trudeau told the CBC radio’s The House. “We have had women attacked in the streets for wearing hijabs and niqabs. This is not Canada, and the kind of leadership and divisive politics that he’s playing is dangerous and irresponsible.” http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/98no+election+worth+pitting+canadians+against+canadians+trudeau/11421060/story.html