CITIZEN_2015

Mainstream research places Liberals ahead by only 5% (only 4% if all voters) at 38%. So Liberal supporters it is not over. Go out and cast your votes on Monday. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/canadas-choice-2015/

I was curious if anyone has a recent link to vote intention riding by riding. To have the most recent data is very important for those who wish to vote strategically.

Today in Halifax while hundreds of Canadians shouting Trudeau Trudeau.... he urged supporters not to become overconfident and do GO AND VOTE on Monday. He promised to replace fear with hope and hate with love. He promised to get some 350,000 children out of poverty and work hard to better the lives of middle class. He repeated to tax the wealthiest 1% in order to give tax breaks to middle class. He promised to keep income splitting for seniors. Trudeau under a liberal government will return Canada to the peaceful loving country it used to be before the demons and evil dark forces stole the country. Nanos poll released today confirms Trudeau as the favorite Prime Minister of Canada. WE WILL TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK ON MONDAY. VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA.

LIBERALS HEADING FOR A STRONG MINORITY ACCORDING TO TWO POLLS YAHOOOOooOOOOO Nanos released today October 17, 2015: Liberals - 37.0% conservatives - 30.7% NDP - 22.6% Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party, 56.0% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.2% would consider the NDP, 39.7% would consider the Conservatives http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151016%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf Leger Marketing released today Liberals - 38% (This is the highest they have been) conservatives - 30% NDP - 22% This study was conducted online across all Canadian regions with citizens who are eligible to vote in Canada. For this study, 2,086 respondents, including 996 in Quebec, 18 years of age or over, were surveyed between October 13 and October 16, 2015. http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20151017.pdf Liberals ahead by 12% in Ontario, Liberals also ahead in Quebec ahead of NDP by 6%!!! Vicious attacks by NDP and conservatives on Liberals on Gagnier affair appears not to have fooled the voters, While religious fanatics and some wealthy and interest groups continue to support conservatives at 30% however increasing number of Canadians have indicated in many polls they wish Liberals in government as a minority government and Mr. Trudeau as their Prime Minister, Welcome Mr. Trudeau the next Prime Minister of Canada.

No a weepy old woman is by far better than you and if I write the truth about what you really are then I would be very likely banned . Your level of intelligence is so low that you fail to understand to be attacked for being a minority or for looking different so randomly is very different that examples you childishly brought in like bald or hot chicks being attacked in the bars or where ever.....

I think that liberals and their supporters overestimate their support and that is DANGEROUS. Angus Reid poll indicates a quite likely conservative minority. It says Liberals are only 4% leading and last time they underestimated the conservative support by 3 percentage point and they were the best pollster. So if the gap is only one percent then it is a conservative government on Tuesday because of vote efficiency. I certainly hope that does not happen. Also these people are using their wealth and influence to mobilize voters to take them to vote. Who know may be they give them free ride and free lunch too if they vote conservative!!!!.

Another idiotic post by this poster which actually says that TWO WRONGS MAKE IT RIGHT. Your heart is bleeding for Jews and then you refused to condemn attacks on Muslim women SPEAKS A VOLUME ABOUT you. I hope that you and your kind lose real bad on October 19th because you and your attitudes and posts are all disgrace to this otherwise peaceful loving country We wish to put you guys in the garbage bag of the history where your kind (these redneck reformed party conservatives) belong.. Btw, when you claim something then provide proof (links) too that Jewish women have been attacked as you claimed past few months because of being Jewish or what they wear and that the city police has issued a report asking the community to report about it as they did today about Muslim women.

These are all interrelated. You cannot narrow down debates and discussions within the very narrowed title saying that anything outside but related to it must not be discussed. sure it is serious business when women are attacked (because of what is related to title, the niqab or feelings surrounding it) and we are just debating the pros and cons of the events.

Yes niqab should be banned especially for citizenship BUT this is not the issue. The issue I have is NOT because I support niqab but the manner in which the issue was exploited by Harper and his party to incite people and set Canadians against each other to build support based on hate of minorities (in this case Muslims) Ask yourself these questions - Who will be their target next?? Is this the country you wish to live where people are attacked (worst of all women are attacked)for their race or religion or looks or what they wear?? what group of people are next to be picked on and attacked? The Jews?, the Chinese?, Indians?, Eastern Europeans?, the Irish? Latin Europeans? And the list goes on.

Exactly. Being a Muslim was enough to be verbally abused. I could never guess this could ever happen in my Canada. I hope this is a nightmare which I can wake out of it soon. Look what they did to our Canada. Down with this conservative party.

Ottawa police are encouraging members of the Muslim community to report any abuse they encounter after three women wearing head scarves were verbally attacked by strangers, including one in a polling station. I first heard it on CTV news but I couldn't believe it but then I found many links too. It was true http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-police-ask-muslim-women-to-report-abuse-after-several-verbally-harassed. Also couple of Muslim women were physically attacked by cowards in both Toronto and Montreal soon after the niqab issue was exploited by the conservative party and became a campaign policy. If this is the type of Canada you wish to see where people are incited against each other based on race and religion and defenseless women attacked or abused or minorities hated or attacked then I suggest you vote for the conservative party of Canada on Monday.

Nanos didn't do bad in 2011. I think they were second best with 1.4% error (best was Angus Reid which predicted with 1% error). Ekos was the worst and I don't give much weight to what they release.

ANGUS REID which ended up to be the closest and most accurate past two elections has just released likely its last poll: Liberals - 35% conservatives - 31% NDP - 22% http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015.10.15-Final-Horserace.pdf They were closest but still underestimated conservative vote by 3% if I recall correctly so conservatives can take 33% of votes and since they are more efficient in spite of less popular vote may win more seats and form a minority government (God forbid). SO go out and vote and vote for the party who is the closest in your riding competing with the conservative candidate if you have had enough of Harper and the vicious corrupt scandalist conservative party in power. Do not become overconfident of a victory. A vote division between NDP and Liberals may elect another conservative government for years to come as it happened in 2011.

CTV based on Nanos today for Preferred Prime Minister Trudeau - 34.6% (this has been the largest approval/preferred rate for Trudeau ever I remember) Harper - 30% (still?? unbelievable!!!!!). Mulcair - 19.3% (not sure exact number but under 20%). Trudeau the preferred Prime Minister of Canada by Canadians will very likely be the Prime Minister of Canada next Tuesday.

Are there going to be more polls over the weekend? I seem t recall a law banning polls 2 days or so before the election. Am I correct? I am interested to see how the vote intentions will be affected by Gagnier thing. Nanos today does not fully reflect that (it was October 13, 14 and 15 so only one day of the three days is after the Gagnier thing and even so it saw support for liberals dropped by 0.6% and gap narrowed from 7.7% to under 6%. Yes i do know error margin of 2.8% but still quite a fall considering only a third affected by Gagnier).

Btw, not sure if it has been posted anywhere but Globe and Mail today endorsed the conservative re-election but WITHOUT Harper to be Prime Minister!!!!!!!. I am not joking or exaggerating and today is not April 1st lol. Like they say Harper should win a government and then resign!!!!!. I read somewhere else that 50% of Canadians absolutely detest Harper.

Yes I agree and that is exactly what worries me that potential liberal voters get overconfident or turned off by this Mulair-Harper made Gagnier affair (NO laws were broken) and change their votes or vote NDP and then a minority conservative elected and Harper manipulates and stay in power for year or years to come. there is NO GUARANTEE that a minority conservative (especially over 130 seats with 34% of votes) can be defeated right away at Throne speech. Very dangerous and risky to take this (or liberal victory) as granted at this stage.

He wanted to do his best to end it early otherwise it was clear and he did say that no laws were broken and all commentators I have heard also said no laws or even rules were broken. He knows that Harper and Mulcair would take advantage of this and try to attack Trudeau and Liberals and capitalize as much as they possibly can. We witnessed how conservatives or their supporters viciously attacked Trudeau with lies (like he has secretly become a muslim and has ties with ISIS!!!!!). So now they were given a possible case to attack him real bad. They may even claim liberals acted illegally and accuse Trudeau of knowing about it. It is cheap talk and never be proven (or by the time it is proven false it is past election time) We all know these are lies but they may succeed to put doubt in small number of people's mind. All is needed is a couple of percent changing their votes away from liberals. Mulcair knows well by taking away votes from Liberals he may elect another conservative government with Harper on top and he himself can never get enough to form a government but he tries hard to do just that..

On first part I see a dark scenario and that is Liberals down by just 2% over this over capitalization by Mulcair to say 34% and conservatives always underestimated by poll get equal 34% (which is very possible as last time most polls underestimated conservative vote by 3 to 4%) and then since conservative vote is more efficient then God forbid we may see a conservative government. It is a very possible scenario but I do hope I am very wrong about this. Yes public interest is what we want and that would be best serve with a minority Liberal government prop up by the NDP. If in 2 years Trudeau proves that he is worth it then we may decide to put him in majority then and only then but he has to pass this test. What I fear as I said is a dreadful scenario described above.

I fear that this recent Gagnier thing may work real bad for Liberals especially with Mulcair now asking election Canada to investigate it (He know damn well that no laws were broken but he selfishly trying to capitalize on this non-issue). He puts doubts in voters mind and though he may get a few percents out of it but will NEVER get enough to be able to form a government and he may help to elect another conservative government. It would be real sad. I will never forgive him for that.

NDP leader is now trying to capitalize on Dan Gagnier event which btw CTV commentator said no rules or laws broken. Mulcair is just another ambitious opportunist selfish politician and if a conservative government is elected again because of his selfish actions I will never forgive him or his party. Never.

Lol when you post at 6:00 am or so in the morning half sleep this is as good as it gets!!!.

No I actually prefer a strong Liberal minority (like 140 seats) as per my post just above yours. If you encourage what you said (Liberal surge must be further blunted) then it may backfire on you as many may think same and suddenly either not vote or vote for other party and this may elect another conservative nightmare. Do you want to risk this?. I prefer a majority Liberal government (though not my best preference) than another nightmare of another conservative government I will NOT risk it. I will not change my vote.

Back to polls. Not sure if this is posted in this thread but Forum poll out this morning also confirms Liberal 6% Lead over the conservatives. Liberals - 37% conservatives - 31% NDP - 24% TORONTO October 14th , 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1438 Canadian voters five days before the federal election, just fewer than 4-in-10 will vote Liberal (37%) while just more than 3-in-10 will vote Conservative (31%). These proportions have not changed since we polled last Friday. The NDP has the support of about one quarter (24%) and this has not changed either (October 9 - 23%). http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ebd925a1-af27-4fd4-8122-ae256d165044Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282015%2010%2014%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf It appears 37% versus 30-31% is more like it based on a few recent polls.

I would be happy with that. Then they have to also work/compromise with NDP (some of its policies) and this is not a bad thing at all.