Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

Latest polling shows still no appetite for an election.

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008...in_canada/5685/

Two-thirds of Canadians are opposed to a federal election this spring despite "nothing happening," a pollster said in a national report Monday.

The Ipsos Reid poll of 1,000 Canadians nationwide for the Canwest News Service and Global TV also found political support is almost unchanged since December 2006.

Support for the minority government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper fell 1 point to 35 percent, which was picked up by the Liberals who are now at 31 percent, the report said.

The socialist New Democratic Party logged 15 percent support and the Green Party had 9 percent, said the polling agency's president, Darrell Bricker.

"Essentially what you have here is two punch-drunk fighters in the center of the ring whaling away at each other and nothing is happening," Bricker said. "People really aren't paying much attention" to politics.

Bricker noted the overall Conservative support is strongly rooted in the western, oil-rich province of Alberta, where voters returned them to provincial power last week with a 72-seat majority.

"When you take out that huge lead in Alberta, they're not in great shape," he said.

Tories still have the lead but Ipsos says that high support in Alberta skews the result.

[capricorn]

If the Conservatives hope to win a majority, they need to at least start thinking about Harper's replacement.

When the time comes, the Conservatives will have a leadership contest. In the meantime, Conservatives are united behind their leader. On the other hand grumblings among Liberals are mounting that Dion should be replaced a.s.a.p. If you want proof all you have to do is visit Liblogs.

[jdobbin]

When the time comes, the Conservatives will have a leadership contest. In the meantime, Conservatives are united behind their leader. On the other hand grumblings among Liberals are mounting that Dion should be replaced a.s.a.p. If you want proof all you have to do is visit Liblogs.

And yet according to one more poll, if not for Alberta, the Tories would be shown to be in fairly bad shape.

[blueblood]

And yet according to one more poll, if not for Alberta, the Tories would be shown to be in fairly bad shape.

The same could be said about the Liberals and Southern Ontario

[jdobbin]

The same could be said about the Liberals and Southern Ontario

That's not what the pollster said.

[August1991]

As Darrell Bricker said:"Essentially what you have here is two punch-drunk fighters in the center of the ring whaling away at each other and nothing is happening," Bricker said. "People really aren't paying much attention" to politics.

IOW, it should be no surprise that poll results mirror election results of two years ago or so. Nobody is paying much attention and they're answering by rote.

Once into a campaign, it's anyone's call what happens. I wouldn't be surprised that the Liberals, shorn of their mystique of power, will not do well. Dion is not exactly Mr. Charisma.

-----

Dobbin, Bricker's dismissal of Alberta is typical of what passes for English-Canada's Toronto-centric political establishment. It's breathtaking in its ignorance. I bet Bricker isn't even aware of what he said. The same exists in Quebec and it usually centres on the Plateau-Mont Royal.

[jdobbin]

Dobbin, Bricker's dismissal of Alberta is typical of what passes for English-Canada's Toronto-centric political establishment. It's breathtaking in its ignorance. I bet Bricker isn't even aware of what he said. The same exists in Quebec and it usually centres on the Plateau-Mont Royal.

He didn't dismiss Alberta. He said that the vote was so concentrated there that it skews results. The Tories cannot win more seats in Alberta.

I know you don't like what the results of this poll are but you are flailing at all the old enemies of the right. I can imagine what would be said if the Liberals actually won. I expect we would see some Parizeau-like moment from the right.

[blueblood]

That's not what the pollster said.

I know, just my observation of things.

[jdobbin]

The latest from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0317?hub=Canada

he Conservatives have an 11-point lead over the Liberals, and only 20 per cent of Canadians would blame the government if the economy entered a recession over the next year, according to a new Strategic Counsel Poll.

When respondents were asked who they would vote for, there was almost no change in support from a month ago (percentage-point change from a Feb. 14-17 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 38 per cent (-1)

* Liberals: 27 per cent (same)

* NDP: 14 per cent (+2)

* Green Party: 12 per cent (same)

* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (same)

The latest poll, conducted between March 13-16 for CTV and The Globe and Mail, comes amidst increasing concern that Canada may not be prepared for an economic downturn, as the U.S. credit crisis is felt around the world.

Still short of a majority for the Tories. The rise in NDP support sure wasn't seen in the the byelections. Liberal support is the same.

[Shakeyhands]

The latest from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0317?hub=Canada

Still short of a majority for the Tories. The rise in NDP support sure wasn't seen in the the byelections. Liberal support is the same.

I wonder why the SC polls are always so out of whack with the other pollsters.... odd that.

[jdobbin]

I wonder why the SC polls are always so out of whack with the other pollsters.... odd that.

It is considering what Decima shows today.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...qbLip_yN70vxRFQ

Another national poll suggests the Conservatives and the Liberals remain locked in a dead heat with little sign of momentum.

The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey had support for both the major federal parties flatlining at 32 per cent. The NDP was at 17 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois nine and the Green party was at eight.

The telephone survey was conducted March 13 to 16, concluding the day before Monday's four federal byelections in which the Liberals retained three of four seats they had previously held and the Conservatives took one Saskatchewan riding.

Some Liberals indicated they'd be watching the byelection results for signs that it is time to bring the minority Tory government down and send Canadians to a general election this spring.

Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima, said the poll does nothing to clear the air.

"Any party looking for a reason to cause an election in these numbers will find it hard to locate one," Anderson said Tuesday.

This poll shows the Liberals and Tories tied.

I don't think it means anything in particular other than it looks like a repeat minority government. Given incumbency, the edge goes to the Tories.

[jbg]

The latest from Strategic Counsel.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0317?hub=Canada

Still short of a majority for the Tories. The rise in NDP support sure wasn't seen in the the byelections. Liberal support is the same.

Won't vote-splitting by the NDP reduce the percentage of the vote that the CPC needs for a majority to some number below 40%?

[normanchateau]

Won't vote-splitting by the NDP reduce the percentage of the vote that the CPC needs for a majority to some number below 40%?

CPC majority?

In the past 50 years, there have been only two Conservative majorities: Brian Mulroney in 1984 and Brian Mulroney in 1988. The NDP took 19% of the vote in 1984 and 20% in 1988 so yes, a strong NDP vote would help the Conservatives. But the NDP can't be blamed for Mulroney's win. Mulroney obtained more than 50% of the vote in Quebec in 1984 and 1988. Harper is now running third in Quebec behind Duceppe and even behind Dion. And if you think Mulroney's Quebec numbers were impressive, check out Mulroney's Ontario numbers.

For CPC to win a Mulroney-like majority, they'll need a centrist leader, not a socially conservative, former President of the National Citizens Coalition who even Tom Flanagan could not disguise. Quebecois might like the billions Harper shovelled their way in the 2007 budget, a budget warmly endorsed by Gilles Duceppe, but a majority of Quebecois are not about to vote for a man with socially conservative positions and baggage. History is not on the side of a Conservative majority as long as that party remains saddled with Stephen Harper.

More on the National Citizens Coalition:

http://www.harperindex.ca/ViewArticle.cfm?Ref=0010

[M.Dancer]

CPC majority?

In the past 50 years, there have been only two Conservative majorities: Brian Mulroney in 1984 and Brian Mulroney in 1988.

3....Dief in 1958

[normanchateau]

3....Dief in 1958

It'll be 50 years on March 31st.

[Vancouver King]

I wonder why the SC polls are always so out of whack with the other pollsters.... odd that.

The Strategic Counsel is the same group that forecast - 48 hours before the last election - that Harper was headed for a landslide of epic proportions. That CTV trumpets their nonsense on the evening news says loads about the networks new mission statement and less about journalistic objectivity.

[M.Dancer]

The Strategic Counsel is the same group that forecast - 48 hours before the last election - that Harper was headed for a landslide of epic proportions. That CTV trumpets their nonsense on the evening news says loads about the networks new mission statement and less about journalistic objectivity.

You sure about that? I'm not. I don't recall any pollster making that prediction.

http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_new...Poll(Jan22).pdf

They certainly didn't predict a landslide..instead they put the Conservatives with less than 40%....

...ho hum....another vapour claim about pollsters and the media up in smoke

Edited March 19, 2008 by M.Dancer

[Hydraboss]

Thanks for the NCC link Norm. I looked around and it's...like...well...it's almost like they don't like him!

No, really! Although I imagine the site is usually non-partisan, there are a few sections that almost seem anti-Harper! Can you believe that?!?

[Vancouver King]

SC's predicted double digit spread between the main parties was twice the actual outcome. Contrast that to the performance of other pollsters in Jan., 2006, such as Nanos which predicted the outcome for all 5 major parties TO WITHIN ONE-HUNDRETH of a percentage point.

Better still, contrast their March, 2008 numbers to every other respected polling firm - all show a spread between Tories and Libs of less than half SC's results.

I repeat, there is an agenda in play that has little to do with the objective measurement of public opinion.

[jdobbin]

The Strategic Counsel is the same group that forecast - 48 hours before the last election - that Harper was headed for a landslide of epic proportions. That CTV trumpets their nonsense on the evening news says loads about the networks new mission statement and less about journalistic objectivity.

The poll you are speaking about had the Tories at 42 and the Liberals at 24.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/mar06/vong.pdf

[normanchateau]

Thanks for the NCC link Norm. Although I imagine the site is usually non-partisan, there are a few sections that almost seem anti-Harper! Can you believe that?!?

Yes, it's shameful and scandalous. That "NCC" site does indeed appear anti-Harper. A more objective site would be this one which merely quotes Stephen Harper rather than describes his past behaviour and previously held positions:

http://thinkexist.com/quotes/stephen_harper/

[M.Dancer]

The poll you are speaking about had the Tories at 42 and the Liberals at 24.

http://www.irpp.org/po/archive/mar06/vong.pdf

No, he said 48 hours....the jan 21st poll.

In fact, two days after the release of the 42-24 poll, the Strategic Counsel quietly pulled the momentum question from the survey, replacing it with a more neutral query on whether it

was the right time for a new government. By January 21, the 18-point Conservative lead had shrunk to just 10 points, giving the Tories 37 percent to the Liberals’ 27 percent.

[normanchateau]

Liberals and Conservatives in statistical tie according to Ipsos-Reid, March 25, 2008:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3861

[jdobbin]

Liberals and Conservatives in statistical tie according to Ipsos-Reid, March 25, 2008:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3861

I think that that the polls, Strategic Counsel notwithstanding, are pretty much indicating it is a dead heat. The Tories with incumbency still have the advantage in winning but there is little to indicate that they are anywhere near majority support.

The Liberals should stop thinking that they are going to see a trend where they have ideal circumstances and bring the government down. They should just do it on the next major issue that the Tories try to make an issue of confidence and let the chips fall.

And if the Tories win another minority, The Liberals should indicate that they will not accept anything unacceptable on key policies. They need to stop letting the NDP and BQ get a free ride with their no votes. And they have to stop the Tories thinking that they have carte blanche from a fearful Liberal party about going to the electorate.

[normanchateau]

On the other hand, here's a projected Liberal minority government:

http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm