Are we witnessing the death of the Bloc Québécois?

August1991 · September 19, 2007

During the last Quebec election, I started a thread entitled "Are we witnessing the death of the Parti Québécois?"

The question is more general of course. Whither the BQ? At the time, it was hard to digest the shift the ADQ without getting into the broader question.

Andrew Coyne and Philippe Couillard have both drawn the main conclusion from these three by-elections:

Du côté du gouvernement de Jean Charest, le ministre Philippe Couillard a plutôt perçu dans ces élections un signe du déclin de l'option souverainiste et une "bonne nouvelle" pour les tenants du fédéralisme.
"Ce que je retiens, c'est une diminution significative de l'appui à la souveraineté, du moins dans le cas de ces trois circonscriptions, même dans la région du Lac-Saint-Jean où les gens étaient traditionnellement associés aux partis souverainistes", a-t-il analysé.

"C'est une bonne nouvelle pour le fédéralisme en général", s'est-il réjoui.

Even Pauline Marois has noticed this:

Même si le Bloc québécois est parvenu à sauver les meubles, les résultats des trois scrutins complémentaires tenus lundi est un "coup dur" pour le mouvement souverainiste, a concédé mardi la chef péquiste Pauline Marois.
La formation de Gilles Duceppe a subi une raclée dans la circonscription de Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean _ ancien fief de Michel Gauthier _ aux mains des conservateurs et a vu ses appuis fondre dans le comté d'Outremont, remporté par le néo-démocrate Thomas Mulcair.

Le Bloc a réussi à garder la forteresse de Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot _ ancien comté d'Yvan Loubier _ mais son avance a été réduite d'une douzaine de points de pourcentage.

"Cela a été difficile, admettons-le", a laissé tomber d'emblée Mme Marois, au cours d'un point de presse à Québec, au terme d'une courte rencontre de courtoisie avec la candidate socialiste défaite à l'élection présidentielle française du printemps dernier, Ségolène Royal.

De l'avis de la chef du Parti québécois, l'érosion du vote bloquiste est difficile à encaisser mais démontre une fois de plus que le lien de confiance entre la population québécoise et le mouvement souverainiste reste à faire.

"Nous devons rebâtir le lien de confiance, aller rechercher la confiance. C'est pour nous un message, le même que nous avons reçu en mars dernier (à l'élection générale)", a-t-elle dit.

Link

Here's Coyne's take:

We shall see how significant these by-election results prove to be: the press has a tendency to hyperventilate over these things, but the actual long-term record of by-elections as predictors of subsequent elections is spotty at best. Nevertheless......
There is a clear loser tonight, and it's ... the Bloc. The Liberals did poorly, to be sure, but not far off what they did in 2006. In Outremont, the supposed catastrophe, they are down from 35% to 29%, thanks in large part to a very poor local organization. Otherwise their vote held, albeit at historically low levels.

But the Bloc! In Outremont they lost 18 points, from 29% to 11%. In Roberval, too, they're down 18 points, 45 to 27, while in Ste. Hyacinthe they dropped 14 points, shaving a 31 point margin of victory in 2006 to just 5 points. On average, taking the three ridings together, the Bloc has seen two-fifths of its vote disappear, in just eighteen months. That's a catastrophe.

In Le Devoir and Le Soleil and elsewhere however, people are afraid to draw this obvious conclusion. Instead, they prefer to talk of Dion's loss. Michel David wrote:

Le congrès où Stéphane Dion est devenu chef du Parti libéral du Canada, en décembre dernier, restera un des moments les plus surréalistes des annales politiques canadiennes.
En pénétrant dans le Palais des congrès, on avait l’impression de débarquer sur une autre planète. Ou encore à Toronto. De toute évidence, ces gens-là étaient totalement coupés de la réalité québécoise.

Les libéraux d’un océan à l’autre ont eu l’occasion de déchanter depuis, mais la défaite cuisante encaissée hier dans Outremont est le premier signe concret de la catastrophe annoncée, comme la première secousse qui précède un tremblement de terre.

The impending catastrophe, according to David, is the collapse of the Liberals in Quebec. It is almost pathetic to watch sovereignists analyze the collapse of the federal Liberal vote as a way to avoid the more catastrophic collapse of the Bloc vote. The reaction now is similar to the reaction in April about the third party position of the PQ. Sovereignists have always used the "inevitable" argument and the idea that young people are in favour. Well, the option no longer seems inevitable.

Dion's loss? Talk about barking up the wrong tree.

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IMV, the federal Liberals are going to be limited to about 15 or so Quebec seats in ridings with strong anglo/allo voters. The BQ will keep its urban, east end Montreal seats. But the rest of Quebec - and that means about 30-40 seats will go CPC or BQ with more going CPC.

For the BQ, this will be a death knell. It is tantamount to the PQ giving up seats to the ADQ. Why? Because the PQ/BQ will have lost its connection to the Québec profond. It's already a minor irony that the sole BQ candidate elected yesterday was a woman with a Vietnamese name. It's almost as if the sovereignist desire to atone for its nationalist roots has been too successful.

Marois is right. The PQ/BQ must renew its roots and gain once again the confidence of Quebecers.

Death is too definitive a word. But it's quite obvious now that the BQ will not do well in the next federal election. There are many voters in Quebec who have decided that they want to have an MP either at the cabinet table or at least in the caucus on the government side.

Edited September 19, 2007 by August1991

capricorn · September 19, 2007

From reading Québec media and listening to Québec talk shows, I get the sense that soft separatists have grown tired of the promises of independence made to them by the BQ and the PQ. They no longer believe that independence is within their reach. I would venture to say that a number of staunch sovereigntists have probably also abandoned the separation cause. I also suspect that Québecers have decided that staying within Confederation for economic reasons is the most prudent course to follow. Another factor I’m sure they considered is that in the world we live in, the Canadian passport is well worth preserving as it has stood the test of time and saved many Canadians from untold misery as they worked and travelled around the world.

On the whole, Québecers have realized that they really don’t need the BQ in Ottawa to command attention from the federal government. IMO this is in large part due to Harper’s handling of the issues Québec has brought to the table. The idea that the BQ has outlived its usefulness is gaining ground within Québec. By rebuking the BQ and seeking representation through traditional parties which represent Canadians in the ROC, Québecers see an opportunity to gain a strong place within the Canadian Federation and a sense of belonging.

Provincially, the ADQ`s appearance on the scene mercifully gave Québecers an alternative to the PQ and the provincial Liberals. Both the PQ and the LPQ are left leaning. The rise of the ADQ and the gains made by the Conservatives in January 2006 indicate that Québecers want to move to the centre of the political spectrum.

The BQ is definitely endangered and its demise cannot come quickly enough.

jdobbin · September 19, 2007

Marois is right. The PQ/BQ must renew its roots and gain once again the confidence of Quebecers.
Death is too definitive a word. But it's quite obvious now that the BQ will not do well in the next federal election. There are many voters in Quebec who have decided that they want to have an MP either at the cabinet table or at least in the caucus on the government side.

I don't think the BQ are doomed. If Duceppe runs a good campaign in a general election, he might hold onto most of his seats.

Rural Quebec might be a good area for the Tories to continue re-building but Harper is going to have to continue delivering policies that they like. The problem is that sometimes the BQ takes credit for those policies.

Edited September 20, 2007 by jdobbin

old_bold&cold · September 19, 2007

I would say that the Block has lost some of its relavence to make of the old supporters. These are now seeing that it may be best to try to work in Canada as part of Canada and not just for quebec interests only. Now how long this will go on for I do not know but it is quite evident now, and I think Harper deserves the credit for that. Duceppe will not push too hard for an election with the kind of results that have been shown lately both by the Provincial PQ and the Bloc. It does not bode well for them right now, no matter what the polls may say one way or another there is definitely a change in the minds of many Quebecers.

August1991 · September 20, 2007

I would say that the Block has lost some of its relavence to make of the old supporters. These are now seeing that it may be best to try to work in Canada as part of Canada and not just for quebec interests only.

Uh, I don`t think that`s true.

Rather, many people are tired of the federalist-sovereignist debate and they are seeking another way to protect their interests.

A recent Harris-Decima poll across Canada came up with this result (small sample) in Quebec:

The survey, conducted earlier this week through Monday's Quebec byelections, also suggested that the Bloc Quebecois had slumped to 22 per cent in Quebec, compared with 26 per cent for the Conservatives. The Liberals and the NDP were tied at 16 per cent in the province, just a point ahead of the Green party.

CTV

I don`t think I have ever seen the BQ at 22% in Quebec.

jbg · September 20, 2007

IMV, the federal Liberals are going to be limited to about 15 or so Quebec seats in ridings with strong anglo/allo voters. The BQ will keep its urban, east end Montreal seats. But the rest of Quebec - and that means about 30-40 seats will go CPC or BQ with more going CPC.

The supreme irony would be Catholic Quebec giving a majority government to an Anglophone, Protestant Albertan.

Peter F · September 20, 2007

The supreme irony would be Catholic Quebec giving a majority government to an Anglophone, Protestant Albertan.

Cathlocism in Quebec has been dead since the 70's. It is no longer a force in Quebec politics.

capricorn · September 22, 2007

Duceppe has issued the challenge to Harper. This is a sure sign that the Bloc wants to boost its relevance in the province of Québec following their poor showing in the by-elections. There must be tremendous internal pressure on Duceppe to raise the Bloc's profile. IMO Bloc hard core supporters are seeing Duceppe as a tired leader and they want renewal. How committed is Duceppe to holding on to power? Who knows. He really has nothing to lose in this gambit. If this challenge does not eventually lead to an increase in the Bloc's fortunes, he has the option of retiring as leader to become a party advisor while collecting a generous federal pension.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...0921?hub=Canada

Visionseeker · September 22, 2007

The Bloc is suffering from a two pronged shift in Quebec: the first is fatigue with the long Liberal-Bloc battle where the Conservatives are seen as a breaking of the mould (regardless of the policies); and the second is a more nefarious camp who see an opportunity for Bourassa's "profitable federalism" by supporting Harper.

Do not think for a minute that the decline of the Bloc signals a growing love for Canada amongst the Quebec electorate who were "traditionally" Bloc supporters. What they want that Harper could give would tear this country apart. If it comes to this, I hope that Dion can somehow stand as the voice of reason that pulls us from the precipice.

My unity clock is at 10:30 and fast approaching midnight.

Michael Bluth · September 22, 2007

Duceppe has issued the challenge to Harper. This is a sure sign that the Bloc wants to boost its relevance in the province of Québec following their poor showing in the by-elections. There must be tremendous internal pressure on Duceppe to raise the Bloc's profile. IMO Bloc hard core supporters are seeing Duceppe as a tired leader and they want renewal. How committed is Duceppe to holding on to power? Who knows. He really has nothing to lose in this gambit. If this challenge does not eventually lead to an increase in the Bloc's fortunes, he has the option of retiring as leader to become a party advisor while collecting a generous federal pension.

Taking a look at that my bet is Duceppe thinks the Liberals will support the Government on the Throne speech.

Let's look at Duceppe's five demands from the article you posted.

1. Eliminate all federal spending powers in areas of provincial jurisdiction. :blink:

Poorly worded or very odd. So he wants the federal government to deny itself the authority to spend in certain areas.

For example, would this force the government to disband the Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation? Sorry students.

2. Respect Kyoto? Again oddly worded. There is no way we can meet the Kyoto targets, so what does respecting them mean?

3. Helping the forestry workers is one Duceppe will probably get.

4. Not 100% sure about the dairy farmers. IIRC correctly for Duceppe to get his wish we would have to go against the WTO on that one.

5. Afghanistan is getting a little ridiculous. How many times has Harper or one of his ministers said we will leave our combat role in Feb. 2009 in Afghanistan unless it is the will of Parliament to change the deadline. How many times are the opposition parties going to demand the same thing over and over?

So for all his bluster Duceppe won't get points one and two no matter what. Point three he will get, although it is probably in the works already. Point four? Not sure. Point five. Will be in the Throne Speech, but it was going to be in there no matter what.

He will be left with voting for the Throne Speech because he got one thing he asked for. But if the Liberals and/or NDP are voting for it he can play tough guy.

It's far more likely that the Bloc votes for the Speech than Duceppe getting everything he has demanded.

If the opposition really wants to create a wedge issue out of Afghanistan they need to find a better way to do so.

Edited September 22, 2007 by Michael Bluth

Leafless · September 22, 2007

Cathlocism in Quebec has been dead since the 70's. It is no longer a force in Quebec politics.

No, you are wrong.

Even if Quebecers aren't churchgoers, Bibby's sampling revealed that 85 per cent -- or 5.9-million Quebecers still claim to be Roman Catholics, even if they aren't fully aware of church teaching.
They continue to pray, profess the Creed, and expect the church to marry them, bury them and baptize their children.

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...480&k=76076

August1991 · September 22, 2007

I think it's a fair comparison to say that the Catholic Church is as relevant in Quebec as the Church of England is relevant in Ontario. Some people like Church weddings.

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Mais quel effet aurait donc la disparition du Bloc québécois sur les autres partis? Ce qui suit n'est pas de la spéculation car en avril dernier, à l'occasion d'un sondage omnibus, l'institut de sondages SES Research a posé la question aux partisans du Bloc: «Si le Bloc n'existait pas et que vous deviez choisir entre Libéraux, Conservateurs, NPD ou parti Vert, pour lequel voteriez-vous?»
...

- Êtes-vous surpris d'apprendre que le plus grand bénéficiaire en serait le Parti conservateur de Stephen Harper? Sur la base des données du début d'avril, le vote conservateur au Québec passerait de 28 à 41%, un bond de près de 50 %! Le deuxième grand bénéficiaire serait le NPD qui sortirait de la marginalité et verrait ses votes passer de 13 à 23%. Même le parti Vert verrait son vote tripler mais comme il passerait de 4 à 12%, cela ne se traduirait pas forcément en sièges aux Communes. C'est exactement ce qui s'est passé lundi soir: un bond spectaculaire du Parti conservateur à Roberval et à Saint-Hyacinthe et une percée significative du NPD dans la circonscription urbaine d'Outremont...

Michel Vastel

I too am beginning to think that the NDP, depending on how Layton plays this, may get a seat or two in French/Allophone Montreal.

It's reasonably certain now that Harper will get as many as 25 seats in Quebec outside of Montreal.

In some ways, Quebec will vote like the rest of Canada.

Edited September 22, 2007 by August1991

jbg · September 23, 2007

It's reasonably certain now that Harper will get as many as 25 seats in Quebec outside of Montreal.
In some ways, Quebec will vote like the rest of Canada.

Those are good things.

M.Dancer · September 24, 2007

No, you are wrong.
http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/sto...480&k=76076

Just once it would be nice if you countered a claim with a link that supports your counter claim.

The original claim wasn't that Quebecers no longer 'feel; catholic, but that the catholic church is no longer a force in politics.

From your own link.

The paradox is that the majority of those who say they are Catholics no longer subscribe to many of the church's doctrines.
"Catholics in Quebec are far more inclined than Canadians as a whole to approve of the use of artificial birth control, premarital sex, divorce, homosexuality, and the availability of legal abortion when the mother's health is endangered," Bibby writes.

old_bold&cold · September 24, 2007

I do believe that the Bloc has decided that the reasons for their declining support has been due to there not showing the tough image that the party thinks they should be. The Quebec only and Sovereignty if not all things go our way approach. This is eveident I believe by the very five demands he has given, to support the minority government. He knows full well that these requests will not be forth coming and he is hoping I think that the other parties will support Harper, and allow him to keep making his chest pounding demands. It seems that is what he feels will once again bring the Quebec voters to his side. It is a gamble that he is taking, and if he is wrong, then yes, the Bloc will start to fade away quite quickly in political time, to become a fringe party.

I personally think this is a bad move on their part, as I get the feeling that the sovereigntists bravodo is not being seen as seriously as it was before. Quebec can see that there is a place within Canada for them and one in which they can be happy with their lot in it. It is not so black and white any more. Trying to dredge up the old sovereignty movement will not be so easy now. Since it seems that is what the end game is for the Bloc, it will either have to adapt or fade away. It does not look like they are willing to adapt. If things work out to where there is an election this fall, it may well be the beginning of the end for the Bloc.

August1991 · April 1, 2008

Les conservateurs de Stephen Harper ont pratiquement rattrapé les bloquistes de Gilles Duceppe au Québec avec des appuis populaires quasi similaires de 29% (PCC) et 30% (BQ), selon un sondage CROP-La Presse réalisé du 13 au 26 mars derniers.
Le mois dernier, selon le précédent sondage CROP-La Presse, le Bloc devançait le Parti conservateur de six points (33 à 27). Aujourd'hui les conservateurs sont virtuellement à égalité avec la formation souverainiste.

«Si l'on compare de plus le score du Bloc aujourd'hui avec celui des dernières élections générales, où il recueillait 42,1% de la faveur populaire au Québec, le Bloc est le parti qui a le plus perdu en cours de route, soit une plongée de 12 points», constate le vice-président de la maison CROP, Claude Gauthier.

«Quant aux libéraux, ajoute-t-il, ils stagnent au Québec. Ils étaient à 20,7% en janvier 2006 et ils sont aujourd'hui à 20%. Les conservateurs, eux, ont gagné quelques points. Ils sont passés de 24,6% aux dernières élections à 29% aujourd'hui. Mais le parti qui profite davantage de la baisse de popularité du Bloc québécois, c'est le NPD. Les néo-démocrates sont en effet passés de 7,5% en janvier 2006 à 15% aujourd'hui.»

...

Dans la région de Québec, les conservateurs continuent de dominer avec 41% des intentions de vote contre 25% au Bloc, 17% au NPD et 14% au PLC, ce qui est une autre mauvaise nouvelle pour M. Dion.

Ailleurs, en région, le Bloc fait 30% et les conservateurs 34%.

La Presse

La mise en veilleuse du référendum sur la souveraineté par la chef péquiste Pauline Marois précipite le déclin du Bloc québécois, pensent des experts en politique de l'Université Laval.
"Parler de souveraineté à Ottawa quand le PQ reporte la souveraineté à plus tard, ce n'est pas tellement vendeur", a analysé le politologue François Gélineau, en entrevue lundi à La Presse Canadienne.

Son collègue Réjean Pelletier acquiesce. "A partir de l'instant où le Parti québécois veut gérer une province canadienne, les électeurs n'ont pas de raison de favoriser plus un parti qu'un autre à Ottawa", est-il d'avis.

CP

In all likelihood, there is going to be a shake-out in Quebec in the next federal election and if they play their cards, two parties will benefit: the Tories and possibly the NDP. The decision of the PQ (Marois) to put off to the future the holding of a referendum has hurt indirectly the BQ.

In addition, Harper has made it easy and possible for non-Liberal Quebec voters to vote Tory. Harper has created an alternative.

Look at the numbers: les Bleus lead the BQ in the Quebec City region 41% to 25% and elsewhere outside of Montreal, they lead the BQ 34% to 30%.

Harper's majority may be hidden in this poll result.

August1991 · September 19, 2008

Montréal :
PC = 21 % ; PL = 31 % ; Bloc = 23 % ; NPD = 14 % ; PV = 11 %

Québec sauf Montréal :

PC = 32 % ; PL = 20 % ; Bloc = 27 % ; NPD = 15 % ; PV = 6 %

Link

I have posted this link on a different thread but I think it's germaine here too.

The Conservative Party leads the Bloc Québécois outside of Montreal. If this poll is accurate (and based on my knowledge, it's possible), the BQ has lost its raison d'être. The BQ has lost the soul of Québec. From my impressions the BQ is past its expiry date. Quebec must seek another way to defend its interests.

The BQ will possibly be reduced to a Montreal Plateau/Mile End party. IMV, Duceppe and the BQ (and the PQ) made a serious error in choosing to turn Left. Quebec independance should not be mixed up with ideological questions.

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This 2008 election is a sleeper but it has the potential to register the demise of the BQ, the return oF majority Conservatives (in effect, the proof of a mature, two party democracy in Canada) and the federal Liberal Party's existential crisis.

And I foolishly thought Dion would be a player! (I may still be proved wrong.)

But what of the BQ and Duceppe after October 2008? Duceppe will retire but it is also hard to see any future for the BQ. For the BQ, 2008 will be a turning point.

peter_puck · September 19, 2008

As much as I wish they would, I don' think the BQ will go away. First of all, while they may loose the "soft soverignist vote", the "hard soverignist" vote has no where else to go. It is also the offshoot of the provincial party, and it shows no signs of dissapearing. They will always have access to the PQ machine.

There is also a limit to how much of the vote will go to the conservatives. The orriginal reform party grew in large part to Quebec bashing, complaining about boat loads of money being spent there, etc. While the current conservative government is spending billions looking for a Quebec breakthrough, there is a large hunk of the party that does not believe in it in principle, and I think many voters know this.

peter_puck · September 19, 2008

As much as I wish they would, I don' think the BQ will go away. First of all, while they may loose the "soft soverignist vote", the "hard soverignist" vote has no where else to go. It is also the offshoot of the provincial party, that shows no signs of dissapearing. The BQ will always have access to the PQ machine.
There is also a limit to how much of the vote will go to the Conservatives. The orriginal reform party grew in large part to Quebec bashing, complaining about boat loads of money being spent there, etc. While the current conservative government is spending billions looking for a Quebec breakthrough, there is a large hunk of the party that does not believe in it in principle, and I think many voters know this.

cybercoma · September 19, 2008

The Conservative Party leads the Bloc Québécois outside of Montreal. If this poll is accurate (and based on my knowledge, it's possible), the BQ has lost its raison d'être. The BQ has lost the soul of Québec. From my impressions the BQ is past its expiry date. Quebec must seek another way to defend its interests.

If this is the case we may witness a big turning point in Canadian political history. It's possible we may see Conservative majorities long into the future if Quebeckers change their loyalties. Especially if those loyalties lie with a decentralized federal government.

Bryan · September 19, 2008

If/when the BQ becomes a non-entity, I hope we reform our official party status laws with Elections Canada. For a party to be allowed to get funding and take up room in the house, it should at least be mathematically possible for them to actually form a government.

M.Dancer · September 19, 2008

If/when the BQ becomes a non-entity, I hope we reform our official party status laws with Elections Canada. For a party to be allowed to get funding and take up room in the house, it should at least be mathematically possible for them to actually form a government.

You mean that you could only get funding if you ran 155 candidates?

jbg · September 20, 2008

You mean that you could only get funding if you ran 155 candidates?

My vote would be some number darn close to 308 candidates. A party should have to speak to the nation, not just a small "sweet spot" for the party. There should not be a "Quebec Party" or an "Alberta Party" sitting in the HOC. Anyone could form a party for a few ridings and saturate it. The voters for that party would be doing themselves a disservice since that party could never form a government.

kengs333 · September 21, 2008

If the Bloc suffers the setback that it apparently will in this election, I'm wondering if this will finally convince them to run candidates outside of Quebec. If we have to be governed by a regional party, I would prefer it from a party based in cultured and historic Quebec than from the Wild West, which is the case at the moment. Aside from Duceppe's strident antipathy towards our monarchy, he does seem like a decent guy with some good ideas (high speed rail), and I appreciate the Quebecer's appreciation of and concern for heritage, something that the rest of Canada lacks.

Edited September 21, 2008 by kengs333

PoliticalCitizen · September 21, 2008

The Conservative Party leads the Bloc Québécois outside of Montreal. If this poll is accurate (and based on my knowledge, it's possible), the BQ has lost its raison d'être. The BQ has lost the soul of Québec. From my impressions the BQ is past its expiry date. Quebec must seek another way to defend its interests.

I'd be glad to see BQ down with the so-called "fringe parties" which it should have been to begin with...

Good riddance