Can Dion beat Harper?

[geoffrey]

While I might agree with part of your thoughts about Dion being a poor performing leader in Quebec for the most part, I think you are probably wishing upon a star about the results in Ontario. The last poll I saw for the election there was showing a strong provincial Liberal performance.

Dion has no appeal to English Canada, whatsoever. I can see August's criticisms, and agree with many, about Harper. Harper is far from a great PM. But Dion? No.

Anyone but Dion would have a chance. Dion will do some serious damage to his party.

August, you have the tone and writing ability of someone that has spent alot of time in a university. I can understand how Dion appeals to you. I can understand how Dion appeals to my philosophy and social science educated friends. Dion has zero appeal to me.

Dion is quite the opposite of Harper.

Harper has few priorities, overly focused and micromanaged. Dion just has a willy nilly good sounding blessing to the world. There is no REAL "I will do x which will give you y" statements. I want to know how Dion will protect the environment... frankly the Liberal record doesn't stand on it's own. I want to know how Dion is going to make us economically competitive... what is his taxation philosophy and how is he going to treat oil companies in my own province?

What EXACTLY is he going to do?

People liked Harper's 5 priorities. Unfortunately parliament lasted a bit longer than I think he expected and he ran out of them.

Both parties are blessed in that neither has an effective leader to completely devastate their opponent.

I really wish I lived out west and could vote after the Ontario polls close.....

The interventionists at Election's Canada would probably shoot you if they read that. I'm sure they get all stressed and worked up over the fact I can read US news about the election before I vote in Alberta or someone in BC.

[jdobbin]

Dion has no appeal to English Canada, whatsoever. I can see August's criticisms, and agree with many, about Harper. Harper is far from a great PM. But Dion? No.

Anyone but Dion would have a chance. Dion will do some serious damage to his party.

August, you have the tone and writing ability of someone that has spent alot of time in a university. I can understand how Dion appeals to you. I can understand how Dion appeals to my philosophy and social science educated friends. Dion has zero appeal to me.

Dion is quite the opposite of Harper.

Harper has few priorities, overly focused and micromanaged. Dion just has a willy nilly good sounding blessing to the world. There is no REAL "I will do x which will give you y" statements. I want to know how Dion will protect the environment... frankly the Liberal record doesn't stand on it's own. I want to know how Dion is going to make us economically competitive... what is his taxation philosophy and how is he going to treat oil companies in my own province?

What EXACTLY is he going to do?

People liked Harper's 5 priorities. Unfortunately parliament lasted a bit longer than I think he expected and he ran out of them.

My response was about the provincial Liberals in Ontario, not the federal Liberals in Ontario.

However, while the subject of federal Liberals in Ontario is being discussed, the last poll that did come out had them in a fairly solid lead there.

[capricorn]

Increasingly, I am getting the feeling that Canadians don't want to live in uncertainty. By this I mean, wanting as little upheaval as possible in their daily lives. World news is so depressing, disaster has not hit our shores and we have been pretty well isolated from the ills happening all around us. IMO this works in favour of the party in power. Yes, the Conservatives have faltered on some important files. But overall life is good in Canada. I also believe that Canadians are still hurting from the breach of trust emanating from the sponsorship scandal and are not ready to forgive the Liberals. For these reasons, I sense that Canadians don't want to mess with the status quo.

There's no denying that as things stand, Canadians are more familiar and perhaps more comfortable with Harper than they are with Dion. We Canadians are really not a flamboyant people. And neither is Stephen Harper. He is low key and perhaps uninteresting on a personal level. I find him rather predictable sort of like the average Canadian. Canadians may indeed associate more with Harper than they do with Dion. This may account as to why Harper is more popular in the polls than is Dion.

So IMO if we had an election, I think Harper and his Conservatives would be reelected. Minority or majority, I won't venture to predict. I just don't think Canadians are ready for another Liberal government, regardless of who the leader is.

[betsy]

This is one reason why Dion is not popular in Quebec.

"Elections Canada Chief Won't Back Down On Veil Voting

Guimond said Mayrand's decision "does not take into account the reality of Quebec society," reminding the public of the controversy that took place during the last general election in Quebec.

In March, Quebec's chief returning officer, Marcel Blanchet, had to hire bodyguards, and Elections Quebec received threatening phone calls, after he decided it was acceptable for Muslim women to keep their faces covered at the polls. That decision was later reversed, requiring women to show their faces when they voted.

Guimond said his party will push for an amendment the Elections Act. NDP Leader Jack Layton said he continues to hold out hope that Mayrand will change his position before the byelections, but is prepared to support a legislative move.

"If not, it appears it will be necessary to change the law to make it clear," Layton said.

But Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion said that he would respect Elections Canada's position, even though he disagreed with it."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourview/2007/09/ha...ons_canada.html

What a wimpy stance!

He will go along with it even though he disagrees with it???

What kind of a leader will he be???

There's no denying that as things stand, Canadians are more familiar and perhaps more comfortable with Harper than they are with Dion.

Just from this latest controversy over the veil ruling, at a time such as this.....I feel secure with Harper at the helm.

Harper had always been more consistent by a long shot over national security.

If the Muslim Community itself sees and questions the oddness or the farce over this gesture by the Elections Canada (considering that we're at war with the Taliban)....just look which side Dion had chosen to align himself!

Edited September 15, 2007 by betsy

[geoffrey]

He will go along with it even though he disagrees with it???

"It's not fair! Don't you know it's hard to set priorities!"

[Michael Bluth]

Increasingly, I am getting the feeling that Canadians don't want to live in uncertainty. By this I mean, wanting as little upheaval as possible in their daily lives. World news is so depressing, disaster has not hit our shores and we have been pretty well isolated from the ills happening all around us. IMO this works in favour of the party in power. Yes, the Conservatives have faltered on some important files. But overall life is good in Canada. I also believe that Canadians are still hurting from the breach of trust emanating from the sponsorship scandal and are not ready to forgive the Liberals. For these reasons, I sense that Canadians don't want to mess with the status quo.

There's no denying that as things stand, Canadians are more familiar and perhaps more comfortable with Harper than they are with Dion. We Canadians are really not a flamboyant people. And neither is Stephen Harper. He is low key and perhaps uninteresting on a personal level. I find him rather predictable sort of like the average Canadian. Canadians may indeed associate more with Harper than they do with Dion. This may account as to why Harper is more popular in the polls than is Dion.

So IMO if we had an election, I think Harper and his Conservatives would be reelected. Minority or majority, I won't venture to predict. I just don't think Canadians are ready for another Liberal government, regardless of who the leader is.

Great post.

Harper has performed solidly enough that the media are forced to look elsewhere for stories.

If the Liberals get swept on Monday, as the polls indicate they well, the Dion death watch will begin.

[capricorn]

Great post.

Harper has performed solidly enough that the media are forced to look elsewhere for stories.

If the Liberals get swept on Monday, as the polls indicate they well, the Dion death watch will begin.

Thanks M.B. The Quebec by-elections are definitely Dion's big test.

[tom cody]

Harper/Tories will get most.

I think Harper is the type of person that connects more with your ordinary Canadian than Dion does, I think people like that and will re-elect Harper's government in the next election.

[Michael Bluth]

Thanks M.B. The Quebec by-elections are definitely Dion's big test.

You're welcome.

I truly think the big test will come following the results.

The best Dion can hope for is Coulon squeaks out a win for the Liberals in Outremont. Third place finishes in the other to by-elections look like a given at the moment.

Barring a big Liberal win in Outremont, or a miracle win in one (both?) of the other two ridings, there will definitely be questions about Dion's leadership.

How he deals with those questions will be the truest test of his future leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.

[August1991]

The Quebec by-elections are definitely Dion's big test.

I disagree completely.

Media attention is fickle and to draw any conclusions from one by-election is silly. I think the Liberals will keep Outremont but if Mulcair sneaks by, so be it.

In the broader scheme of things, Dion (and the Liberals) should be far more concerned about their weak position in St-Hyacinthe and Roberval.

---

Surely everyone has learned that to succeed in modern democracies, a politician is well-advised to be under-estimated. Harper himself has used this strategy to his own advantage.

Edited September 16, 2007 by August1991

[Michael Bluth]

I disagree completely.

Media attention is fickle and to draw any conclusions from one by-election is silly. I think the Liberals will keep Outremont but if Mulcair sneaks by, so be it.

In the broader scheme of things, Dion (and the Liberals) should be far more concerned about their weak position in St-Hyacinthe and Roberval.

---

Surely everyone has learned that to succeed in modern democracies, a politician is well-advised to be under-estimated. Harper himself has used this strategy to his own advantage.

It's three by-elections that count, not just one. These by-elections could mark the straw that breaks the camel's back in turning Dion into a 'weak leader' in the eyes of the media. Much of his tenure as leader has pointed in that direction so far. This could be the straw that leads to Dion's weak leadership becoming conventional wisdom.

I agree with you that Dion should be more concerned about St. Hyacinthe and Roberval, but don't think he will be.

The Liberals appear to have given up hopes of capturing much in Quebec outside the island of Montreal.

I don't think any politicians use being under-estimated as a strategy per se. That would imply that they aren't putting projecting their best possible image in order to be underestimated. Politics is about the short-term more often than not, especially so in this era of minority governments in Canada. No politician can afford to be less than there best, especially as part of some grand design.

Nobody is that smart, or has that much ability to judge public reaction to such an extent.

[capricorn]

Nobody is that smart, or has that much ability to judge public reaction to such an extent.

I fully agree. The polls do not tell the whole story. In terms of fickleness, this is even more so with Quebec's voters. For example, who would have thought the ADQ would have done so well in the last provincial elections? Mario Dumont was sweating bullets as election results came in when there was a possibility he could form the government.

Quebec voters like to elect one party provincially and a different one federally. IMO the Bloc will not win any of the three seats. This is a spill over from the message they sent to the Parti Quebecois.

Although Quebec is, in my view, the most leftist Canadian province, I don't think Mulcair will be elected in Outremont but it will be close. The Conservative candidate is too weak in that riding.

I say Outremont goes to the Liberals. Roberval and St-Hyacinthe go to the Conservatives.

[jdobbin]

I say Outremont goes to the Liberals. Roberval and St-Hyacinthe go to the Conservatives.

It would appear that some Liberals have a reason for why Outremont might be lost: it is Ignatieff's fault.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

ean Lapierre told CTV's Question Period on Sunday that the Halifax Chronicle-Herald news story on Saturday blaming Michael Ignatieff for not helping enough has to come from Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's people.

The allegation suggests Dion's supporters fear Ignatieff is trying to undermine the Liberal leader, to raise his own stature within the party.

A sample quote from the article about what the Dion people saw as organizationally questionable decisions: "'There's one of two options,' said one source close to Mr. Dion. 'There's some folks there who are either grossly incompetent or intentionally malicious'."

Lapierre shook his head at the accusation. "That's incredible. That's what I would call a pre-emptive strike," he said. "But it's total fabrication."

The Liberals "have never had so much help from Liberal stars," including Ignatieff, said Lapierre, who stepped down in late January to become a political analyst for the TVA network in Quebec.

[capricorn]

It would appear that some Liberals have a reason for why Outremont might be lost: it is Ignatieff's fault.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Yes, jd, I was aware of that. But as usual in such cases, the source of the accusation remains "nameless". I have a theory on this sorry situation. Sabotage is a strategic rumour propagated by Dion's faithful followers. If the Liberals lose the riding, the blame can be placed on Ignatieff. In turn, his name is sullied within the party to hopefully diminish his chances at the leadership. Like killing two birds with one stone. If the Liberals win the riding all the talk of sabotage will mysteriously disappear.

[jdobbin]

Yes, jd, I was aware of that. But as usual in such cases, the source of the accusation remains "nameless". I have a theory on this sorry situation. Sabotage is a strategic rumour propagated by Dion's faithful followers. If the Liberals lose the riding, the blame can be placed on Ignatieff. In turn, his name is sullied within the party to hopefully diminish his chances at the leadership. Like killing two birds with one stone. If the Liberals win the riding all the talk of sabotage will mysteriously disappear.

These antics in the days before the by-election is pretty stupid. I don't think the "blame Ignatieff" strategy serves anyone in the party well.

We'll see what happens tomorrow. It will be a set-back for Dion if his chosen candidate loses.

[geoffrey]

No one is throwing out one possibility here... perhaps more likely through coincidence and the Canadian way of voting than by actual merit.

If Outremont is successfully split by the Liberals and NDP, the Bloc have a clear chance at taking it. It's not completely impossible to imagine a Bloc sweep.

Just a thought.

--

By the way, when do the polls close your time Quebecois?

I'm out hiking until probably 8 or 9 so I suppose it doesn't matter, but it may be a worthwhile trip into Canmore to find out the results for some return trip chat.

[jdobbin]

No one is throwing out one possibility here... perhaps more likely through coincidence and the Canadian way of voting than by actual merit.

If Outremont is successfully split by the Liberals and NDP, the Bloc have a clear chance at taking it. It's not completely impossible to imagine a Bloc sweep.

Just a thought.

I mention that possibility several posts up.

[Higgly]

Increasingly, I am getting the feeling that Canadians don't want to live in uncertainty. By this I mean, wanting as little upheaval as possible in their daily lives. World news is so depressing, disaster has not hit our shores and we have been pretty well isolated from the ills happening all around us. IMO this works in favour of the party in power. Yes, the Conservatives have faltered on some important files. But overall life is good in Canada. I also believe that Canadians are still hurting from the breach of trust emanating from the sponsorship scandal and are not ready to forgive the Liberals. For these reasons, I sense that Canadians don't want to mess with the status quo.

There's no denying that as things stand, Canadians are more familiar and perhaps more comfortable with Harper than they are with Dion. We Canadians are really not a flamboyant people. And neither is Stephen Harper. He is low key and perhaps uninteresting on a personal level. I find him rather predictable sort of like the average Canadian. Canadians may indeed associate more with Harper than they do with Dion. This may account as to why Harper is more popular in the polls than is Dion.

So IMO if we had an election, I think Harper and his Conservatives would be reelected. Minority or majority, I won't venture to predict. I just don't think Canadians are ready for another Liberal government, regardless of who the leader is.

Sad to say the average voter is not able to distinguish between the man behind the screen and the economic forces at work.

Dion is a non-person really. Ask anyone what he stands for. A lot of head-scrtching. Too bad the Libs didn't go for Rae.

Ask people what Harper stands for. Afghanistan. George Bush. The military. Sad isn't it? The guy is a lout but at least you know what he stands for so you vote for him.

[capricorn]

Sad to say the average voter is not able to distinguish between the man behind the screen and the economic forces at work.

Dion is a non-person really. Ask anyone what he stands for. A lot of head-scrtching. Too bad the Libs didn't go for Rae.

Ask people what Harper stands for. Afghanistan. George Bush. The military. Sad isn't it? The guy is a lout but at least you know what he stands for so you vote for him.

Dion is a real person, really. He has many fine human qualiities and I don't dislike at all. I just don't think he is qualiifed or has the abilities to be leader of major national party.

Well, it seems to me Harper did ask the people in January 2006. Evidently, not all of them discarded him, in spite of his portrayal as Bush's puppet, lapdog, poodle, or whatever. Hidden agendas and all, it was a nice try though.

Yes I voted for Harper and I'll vote for Harper again. I refuse to return to the Liberals until they prove they are ready to lead the country and re-gain my trust.

[August1991]

In an interview with Radio-Canada on Wednesday night and again in encounters with reporters yesterday, Dion says he's realized that he has to do more to let Quebecers and Canadians see who he really is.

"I'll do so and my party is going to help me, so that you meet the real Stéphane Dion ... by really putting forth my personality and explaining what I am," Dion said yesterday. "People have to know me."

In the Radio-Canada interview, Dion said too many Quebecers still viewed him as a former cabinet minister instead of as a future prime minister and that up to now in his political career, he's dwelled more in the ideas part of politics than the personality aspects. "I hesitated to put myself in the foreground of the debate," he said.

Toronto Star

Dion is right.

[jdobbin]

Interesting article in the National Post.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...49e&k=48978

There is no need to push the panic or eject buttons on Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, say two men who worked closely with former prime minister Jean Chretien during his difficult, if largely forgotten, time as Opposition leader in the early 1990s.

Peter Donolo and Eddie Goldenberg note that Chretien's decade in power was preceded by such a rough ride as Opposition leader that he lost his confidence.

He made some big gaffes. He was laughed at and criticized, second-guessed by colleagues and vilified in his home province of Quebec. Like Dion, his party lost a Montreal byelection in a riding that had been held by Liberals for more than 70 years.

Donolo is the communications guru who helped get Chretien back on track by calling off his handlers, halting his clumsy use of Teleprompters and encouraging him to be himself. Goldenberg, a lawyer, was Chretien's longtime senior adviser who liked to remind Liberals that they're "in a marathon, not a 100-yard dash."

Neither thinks Dion is losing his confidence. But, after 10 months as Liberal leader, he's clearly on the ropes in some of the same ways that Chretien was -- including for the imperfect way he speaks English, his second language.

And now their counsel to fellow Liberals is to be patient: Chretien rose from deep depths of doubt about his leadership to win three consecutive majority governments.

The two pundits take heart in parallels between the reserved personalities of Dion and Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Not unlike Dion, Harper was written off as a loser, partly because he was perceived as an egghead and a man without a common touch, yet went on to win the 2006 election.

The parallels with Chretien are even more striking.

Saddled with a divided and debt-ridden party, wounded by accusations he had sold out Quebec, it took Chretien more than a year to get his bearings after his 1990 Liberal leadership victory. And, just as Dion has runner-up leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff breathing down his neck, Chretien had rival Paul Martin hovering in the wings.

Just as Dion's hand-picked candidate lost a recent byelection in the Liberal fortress of Outremont, Que., Chretien's appointed candidate, Denis Coderre, lost the Montreal stronghold of Laurier-Ste-Marie to the Bloc Quebecois in 1990.

Chretien's office was not organized with a solid team for more than a year; Dion, too, has juggled staff, and is still trying to put the right mix of loyalty and talent in place.

And Chretien had a major health scare, an operation to remove a growth from a lung. It turned out to be benign, but surgeons had to crack his ribs to get at it and, during recovery, he looked like dead man walking -- a nickname Conservatives coincidentally use for Dion.

[Michael Bluth]

Chretien had a little less than three years to get his bearings as OLO before he faced a general election.

Dion could be thrust into an election 11 months after becoming leader.

Much more like a 100-yard dash than a marathon in this case. Thanks for pointing that out!

[Keepitsimple]

It just boggles my mind to understand how any knowledgeable person could consider voting for the Liberals at this point in time. It's not just Dion. It's not just the feuding leadership remnants. It's not just the corruption. It's not just the lack on coherant policies - both domestic and foreign. It's not just their continued heavy-handed centralized approach in Quebec. It's everything! This party has truly lost its way. They don't stand for anything. They are a bunch of elected MP's who are looking for strong leadership, a guiding set of principles, and easily understood policies. All they portray is anti-conservative and anti americanism. What the Liberals really need is a sound trouncing in the opinion polls and any subsequent election - it's the only way that they will confront their demons. Although I lean right, this country needs at least two strong parties to maintain our traditional middle-of-the-road governance. Some people may be concerned with a Harper majority - but the Liberal Party, as currently constituted, is unfit even for the Official Opposition. In reality, there is little to fear from a Conservative majority. Harper is not in politics for a short-term one majority rule - he's in it to make the Conservatives the "Natural Governing Party". In order to do that, he has to be moderate - otherwise, he'll be out the door. Voters - wake up.

[jdobbin]

In reality, there is little to fear from a Conservative majority. Harper is not in politics for a short-term one majority rule - he's in it to make the Conservatives the "Natural Governing Party". In order to do that, he has to be moderate - otherwise, he'll be out the door. Voters - wake up.

There are still quite a few policies that prevent people from giving the Tories their majority. On the environment, daycare, Afghanistan and other areas, the Tories have shown where they stand and people are resistant to it. Voters are already indicating to them how they feel.

[Keepitsimple]

There are still quite a few policies that prevent people from giving the Tories their majority. On the environment, daycare, Afghanistan and other areas, the Tories have shown where they stand and people are resistant to it. Voters are already indicating to them how they feel.

I guess there must be some truth to what you're saying because the polls still give Liberals decent support. It's interesting though - the points you raised:

1) The environment....it's been said over and over - Liberals did nothing - at least Conservatives are being active on the international stage - trying to get the big polluters to the table. And they DO have a plan - whether it's good enough is neither here nor there - it's much, much more than what the Liberals did in all the years they were in power. So again, a knowledgeable person shouldn't be supporting the Liberals on that file. At worst, it's a wash.

2) On Daycare you have a point but again, people shouldn't be "afraid" of the Conservatives on this file. They are not doing anything major on Institutional Daycare so it's really the status quo. Daycare is really Early Learning - that's Education - and that's a Provincial responsibility. But the fact is, there's nothing scary there - just nothing happening.

3) Afghanistan - what can one say. We're one of over 20 NATO countries trying to do what's right for that country......so if people are scared that the Conservatives are war mongerers, their minds are not going to be changed. But mark my words - if the Liberals got back into power, they would find a way to keep many of our troops in harm's way - they'd just spin it differently.

So back to my original point - I really can't see why people would vote Liberal at this point in time. I guess it boils down to having voted Liberal for so many years, it's just hard to change.