Latest Federal Election Opinion Polls

[maplesyrup]

Today the Toronto Star has published another fedral election opinion poll. The survey was taken Dec 3-16, 2003, and 1,550 Canadian were interviewed.

http://www.torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/Conte...ol=968793972154

While many of us may find the results discouraging at the moment, it's important to know how Canadians are thinking about their political representation in Ottawa, and also to know what voters are looking for in a political party to represent them come voting day.

These results will change as we get closer to election time. This polling was done prior to Bernard Lord's decision about entering the Conservative leadership race, and the former leader of the NDP, Ed Broadbent's political

re-entry. Timing has a lot to do with the results.

Better days ahead.

[dnsfurlan]

Did you read the pure spin in the first few lines of the article? It sais that the new conservative party barely gets the support the Alliance got in the last federal election. This stuff is laughable.

Only last week the Star was remarking how the new party was only getting 15% of the vote, and that 1 + 1 = 1. Now, when the support is significantly more than that, the goal-posts they use are the results from the Alliance in 2000. Give me a break.

The fact that a Star poll shows the Conservatives at well over 20% shows that the merger was well worth it, and that any talk of an NDP official opposition is also quite laughable.

[Neal.F.]

Toatally agree Dennis. Susan Delacourt must be slipping for her spin to be so obvious.

That support could again be that high , without a leader, is astonishing. People ARE looking around.

Paul Martin had only one thing going for him. he was not jean Chretien. Chretien only won in '93 in the first place because of Kim Campbell's implosion. And only held power because of the split PC Reform vote.

This must have the Liberal strategists worried. Very worried.

Great news. We've hit 25% sooner than I thought possible.

[sir_springer]

Incredible the way they spin this stuff, isn't it?

They're not even subtle about it any more.

That the party doesn't even have a leader yet doesn't even bear mentioning.

The notion of unbiased journalism in this country is so remote it's no more than a fairy-tale. Hardly a one of these gutless scribblers has the gonads to venture an original thought about anything.

I see that Ezra Lavant is starting up a new magazine to replace The Report. Good. Will be nice to once again have access to some intelligent commentary and thoughts about Canadian politics that haven't been strained through the Liberal Left seives of the eastern elitist intelligencia.

[Neal.F.]

As much as I like and respect Ezra, the problem is that his focus continues to much on an us vs. them tone, and this is what MUST come to an end.

I think what will attract the coalition we need to replace the Liberals is a party that promises less intrusive government, and where the government is involved, that it acts in fairness, not favouring one region over another.

Can the day ever come when Canadians coast to coast can be Canadians first, and Albertans, Qyebcers, Newfoundlanders etc second, just like our neighbours to the south?

It can but only when we are rid of the Liberals and their pork-barrel politicking and demagoguery which feeds the fires of regionalism to their advantage.

The old Quebec separation fight has served the federal Liberals incredibly well for many years, you know the old line "vote for us or the PQ/BQ will get in" .

If that's not demagoguery, nothing is.

[Slavik44]

well i can't see why we should be fealing down with 25%, after all the talk of 20% and 17% and how support was slipping these polls have bounced around so much, who knows.

I mean the liberals are at 55% well is there not a post just down the page with the liberals at 57.5 % and did it not have the NDP at 17.5%, and now only 13% of the people say they will vote for the NDP and now only 55% of peopel say they willv ote for the liberals...so either the Bloc just doubled the amount of peopel who will vote for them or the CPC is starting to make some gains.

[dnsfurlan]

Can the day ever come when Canadians coast to coast can be Canadians first, and Albertans, Qyebcers, Newfoundlanders etc second, just like our neighbours to the south?

Unity usually comes from the need to come together under extraordinary circumstances.

In the States, it took a civil war. The Revolutionary War before that might have had something to do with it as well.

In Canada, there really hasn't been some extreme challenge which forced people to put their difference aside in order to finally start acknowledging the unifying similarities.

Either that, or extraordinary leadership, which probably won't come from anyone of the current players. Even then, only some unifying event usually does it - and it ain't constitutional squabbles.

[Lost in Manitoba]

Don't kid yourself, the states have regional squabbles as well, but agreed they are by and large American first.

You cons should be very happy to see the NDP under Layton being very active out there. You guys have nothing to lose and everything to gain by Jack's activism. I predict the NDP going up very soon in the polls, and depending on the Con race, you guys taking a nice jump as well. Though I'm not a supporter, I'm hoping for a good leadership show.

[Goldie]

I really want to confront the Star and CBC for the spin in todays media. The headline and comments about the poll make me sick.

Then the CBC asked a few Atlantic Canadians and one Premier about the Conservative Party and guess what? They all view it as the Alliance take over. Except Mr. Mackay but who the hell trusts him, right!

I've really had it I mean does anyone know how we can affect change in this media that goes above an angry letter and remains totally legal.

Global is always fair and should I just trust Canadians to seek out that which is, at minimal, neutral.

I know the Post has CBC watch, this is step one to exposing them but needs to be expanded. Please.

[maplesyrup]

Goldie.....you raise an interesting issue - Canada's media.

Here is another article that came out yesterday but has had some editing I believe, from when I first read it. It is about the Conservatives in Quebec.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2003/.../293192-cp.html

[maplesyrup]

Does anyone know when the next federal politics poll results are going to be released? There's a lot of hot air blowing out there, and I think it's time for a little reality check, don't you?

My hunch is that you will continue to see the Liberals with a substantial lead, and the NDP contnuing to improve in the national standings.

My reasoning is that most Canadians prefer the Liberals.

The fact that Martin constantly mentioned the NDP during his year-end interviews, and also that the Liberals have put up a link on their website to a silly page, attacking The NDP leader JacK Layton, makes one suspect that the Liberal internal party polling is confirming the NDP rise in strength across the country.

The mo9st recent national public scientific surveys of voter preferences in Canada show the following results:

----------------Lib---NDP---Con---Bloc---PC---All---Oth

Ekos

21/12/2003--56-----12----25-------9

Ipsos-Reid

14/12/2003--48----14-----21-------9 ----------------4

Ipsos-Reid

06/12/2003--43----15---------------9---14----10

SOM

02/12/2003--58----18-----13------9

My forecast for the next poll is:

Lib------55%

NDP-----17%

Con-----20%

Bloc------8%

Total--100%

What's your guess?

Edited January 8, 2004 by maplesyrup

[maplesyrup]

The reason the Liberals want to go to the polls soon

Environics Poll

Released Thursday, January, 8, 2003 @ 2:30 PM

at CBC Newsworld on the Don Newman show 'Politics':

The polling for this national survey of voter preferences took place December 11-29, 2003

No of Canadian citizens polled: 1,936

----------Dec '03-------Oct '03

-------- Percent-------Percent

Lib:-----------51------------46

NDP:---------15------------15

Con:---------24-------14+13

Bloc:---------- 8-------------8

Other:--------2--------------4

Total:------100----------100

Atlantic

Lib--------55-(52)

NDP------16 (17)

Con------27 (6+23)

Other-----2 (2)

Quebec

Lib-------48 (47)

NDP-----37 (36)

NDP------9 (10)

Con------5 (4+2)

Other----1 (1)

Ontario

Lib------60 (54)

NDP----14 (16)

Con----24 (9+17)

Other---0 (4)

Man

Lib-----48 (38)

NDP---31 (27)

Con---12 (18+15)

Sask

Lib----40 (24)

NDP--20 (27)

Con--34 (38+8)

Alta

Lib---32 (28)

NDP--18 (9)

Con--49 (42+16)

BC

Lib---46 (36)

NDP-19 (23)

Con--30 (26+12)

Choice for Prime Minister

----------------------Percent

Martin--------------------60

Harper--------------------7

Layton--------------------6

MacKay-------------------4

Duceppe------------------3

The Canadian people have spoken.

So what are these results telling us? Who are cthe winners? Who are the losers? What are the ramafications? Will these numbers impact on the Conservative leadership race? If so, in what way?

Let's compare these figures to Feb 4, 2001:

Lib-----51 (45)------------increase of 6%....change + 13.3%

NDP.....15 (8).........------increase of 7%...change + 87.5%

Con----24 (23+8)-------decrease of 7%---change - 22.6%

Bloc-----8 (8)-------no change

If an election were held today, Liberals would win a masssive majority, probably obtaining 200 + seats.

It really is a coronation for Martin at the moment.

Trends are up for the NDP and down for the Conservatives, but regardless, the Liberals have a huge lead at the moment.

How nice it would be to have a proportational representation system. Oh well, wishful thinking right now.

Edited January 14, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Michael Hardner]

The CPC only lost 3% with the merger. This isn't too bad at all. The election is still wide open. I'd still predict a Liberal majority as more likely, followed by a Liberal minority, then a Conservative minority.

But anything could happen...

[Pellaken]

I will have a complete prediction once the tories pick a new leader.

I am predicting:

Lib-45%

NDP-20% (mostly gains in Quebec and Ontario)

Con-20%

BQ-5%

Grn-5%

[maplesyrup]

That gives the Liberals a majority doesn't it?

Total 308 seats, required for majority 155 seats.

Your forecast is a good one..

This is my prediction:

Lib - 160 seats - 52% Majority Government

NDP - 65 seats -21% Official Opposition

Con - 59 seats - 19%

Bloc - 24 seats - 8%

Edited January 9, 2004 by maplesyrup

[Pellaken]

That gives the Liberals a majority doesn't it?

Total 308 seats, required for majority 155 seats.

Your forecast is a good one..

This is my prediction:

Lib - 160 seats - 52% Majority Government

NDP - 65 seats -21% Official Opposition

Con - 59 seats - 19%

Bloc - 24 seats - 8%

I wish

It really depends on a great number of variables. if no one catches fire the NDP will not finish 2nd.

as for our seat count, I think getting more then 50 or so is unlikely. I've run many predictions for the tories with their current polling numbers, and they get from 50 to 60 seats every time.

I do think if the tories do not pick up steem that it will help the NDP as more people will turn to us as an alternative.

as for the Bloc, I'd put them at 18 seats max.

I will have a virtual riding-by-riding prediction as the tory polling numbers solidify

[sir_springer]

Okay, I'm getting tired of all this blathering about how the NDP are mystically going to somehow become the Official Opposition.

61 seats???

Let's dispell this nonsense here and now.

From 2000 election results in Ontario, supposedly where the NDP are going to make this big breakthrough:

# ridings in which the NDP got:

< 5%: 43

> 5%, < 10%: 36

> 10%, < 15%: 11

>15%, < 20%: 4

> 20%, < 25%: 5

> 25%, < 30%: 1

> 30%: 3

In summary, the NDP received less than 15% of the vote in a total of 90 ridings.

Contrast this to...

Combined votes of the CA/PCs:

< 10%: 2

> 10%, < 15%: 3

> 15%, < 20%: 4

> 20%, < 25%: 6

> 25%, < 30%: 12

> 30%, < 40%: 33

> 40%, < 50%: 33

> 50%: 10

The CA/PCs received over 30% of the vote in a total of 76 ridings.

Anything over 30% would be considered to be within reasonable striking distance of the incumbant.

Another striking thing I noticed was that where the CA/PCs were strong, the NDP were almost insignificant, usually below 5%.

Now...

For the NDP to win 61 seats would require such a literally earthshaking swing in popular support in Ontario as to be almost unimaginable.

In reality, were the NDP to increase their share of the overall vote in that province by a remarkable 10% across the board, presumably almost entirely at the expense of the Liberals...

They might pick up 2 to 4 ridings, tops.

However, this could lead to the CPC conceivably gaining as many as 50 seats or more.

That is the reality.

61 seats, my ass!

The NDP are in no position in this country to do better than 20 total...and are facing the very real risk of being obliterated, should the vote polarize.

Which it will.

[Pellaken]

Ontario is Ontario.

in the last election, we got what, 5% there?

in this election, people are predicting 25%

but I will go for 15%

according to UBC's election forcaster, if the NDP doubles its vote (or more accuratley, if each other party halvs their vote) the NDP gets 5 times the seats they won in the previous election.

You also have to remember, this forcaster does not account for Layton, Broadbent, Masse, or other strong individuals.

you also contradict yourself:

"Another striking thing I noticed was that where the CA/PCs were strong, the NDP were almost insignificant, usually below 5%."

"The NDP are in no position in this country to do better than 20 total...and are facing the very real risk of being obliterated, should the vote polarize."

Technically, if the vote polarizes, it will be either pro or anti Liberal, and hence, by your own findings, we should do well in the ridings you dont.

Between 1993 and 1997 the NDP's vote sky-rocketed in the east. we may be looking at a similar situation here.

in 1984, the NDP won 13 ridings in Ontario, at the time, the province had less seats then it does now.

The NDP has won a riding in Quebec in a by-election, and once had a seat in Newfoundland

We've had 2 seats in NB, and 6 in NS

we've held 7 seats in Manitoba and 10 seats in Saskatchewan

we've had an alberta seat, a seat in what is now Nunavut, and one the yukon.

we've also held 19 BC seats.

That totals 62 seats.

We came close to winning Hillsborough/Charlottetown PEI, and held 2 different NL ridings (at different times)

BC has gained 4 seats, we should be scaled up 2. That alone is 4 extra seats, bringing us to 66.

There are 3 other BC ridings we've come close in, and the riding we won in alberta has been split into 2 peices

along with the 13 ridings we won, there are 13 ridings (using modern day boundaries) we've historically come close in

This brings us to 83, which seems to be a glass celing for the NDP. I doubt we will ever get above this unless we have a killer election.

so, our max's by province, are:

NL-2

PE-1

NS-6

NB-2

PQ-1

ON-26

MB-7

SK-10

AB-2

BC-22

TR-2 (territories)

[maplesyrup]

Let's do a bit more of an analysis of this latest poll:

Party.....Poll-.............2000.................1997........1993

Lib.........51...................41.....................38..........41

NDP.......15..................8.5.....................11............7

Con.......24.......25.5+12.2..............19+18....19+16.

Bloc........8................10.7.....................11...........14

Well at first glance it appears that 2 parties have improved their position and 2 parties have dimished support.

[Neal.F.]

I don't think that 24% is so bad for a party that has existed for a month and has no leader....

The leadershiop contest and subsequent news coverage will boost that .

many votes currently in the Liberal pile are parked votes.

Martin has been a disappointment, and it's only going to get worse, viz BC.

The Bloc will hold their own in Quebec. Liberals could gain, but not many. Certainly not enough to offset Ontario/BC losses.

It's early days yet, my friend.

[sir_springer]

Pell...

I'm sure you know where to find election results on Election Canada's website. Best you go back and take another look.

Prior to the emergence of the Reform, British Columbians elected as many as 19 NDP MPs. Why? Protest vote against the Liberals and PCs, no other reason. When the Reform showed up, the NDP tanked here, and tanked big time. In 2000, Riis in Kamloops, long time NDP MP and very popular, got thumped by 20,000 votes, if I recall correctly.

As little as 3 months prior to the 2000 election, the Liberals had a healthy lead over the CA in polling. Once the election was called, that immediately reversed, and the CA took roughly 50% of the vote. That has been the case for the last three elections out here. It will repeat itself again this year.

The bulk of NDP support in this province is within a few ridings in the Vancouver area. Outside of that, it is spread wide and thin. Provincially, the NDP just had a leadership convention. It drew 800 delegates, and they elected a virtually unknown woman, a social worker, for their leader. What I saw and heard of that leadership race, I can tell you that it was about as dull a political event as I can ever remember in this province. I take this as a solid indication of just how totally in disarray is this party. And any support at all the NDP hopes to get federally will come from this provincial core. Don't kid yourself about NDP prospects in this province, pal. It ain't gonna happen.

Martin is enjoying a honeymoon with the electorate right now...which will not last. Already he is floundering on major issues. Out here, the gun registry is a very major issue across the entire province, and even within Vancouver. Martin has shown that he has no intentions of gassing that POS. Whatever support the polls are indicating for this fraud right now, will almost certainly begin to deteriorate from here on, and crash upon the call of an election. People are quickly learning out here that, at the end of the day, Martin is no conservative by any stretch; he's a Liberal through and through...and that is the kiss of death in this province.

Fact is, partner, if this poll shows anything at all, it is that the NDP's support nationally has topped out. It has not grown at all beyond the 14% range it achieved following Laydown's leadership win. Historically, the NDP often hover as high as that during midterm polling...only to collapse back into the 8% to 10% range on election day.

Broadbent took his numbers as high as 45%...and got 20% on election day. Whatever pump Layton managed, has topped out, and in all likelihood will now begin to fall back as the reality of an impending election begins to sink in with voters.

Bi-elections are irrelevant, always have been, always will be. They amount to little more than entertainment value.

General elections are entirely another matter. They are about electing governments and Prime Ministers.

Layton, not by any stretch of the imagination, is not even remotely perceived as "Prime Ministerial" by any but the most ardent NDP supporters.

The one thing that the Liberal Left media are avoiding is the reality of the ultimate effect of merger of the CA and PCs upon voter psyche.

For a decade now, voters have had it pounded into their heads by the Liberal Left that neither the Reform/CA or PCs had a chance while they remained divided...and a great many bought into that theory.

Now, as they seriously start to ponder their options heading into the coming spring election, that same theory stands a very good of chance of coming back to haunt the Liberal Left.

Because if that was so apparently true then, then the reality of a single conservative option now, conversely, must have a very good chance of succeeding.

This singlular perception amongst voters can, and almost certainly will, be a considerable motivating factor to those who desperately want a real change of face on the federal government.

The fact is, Paul Martin cannot call a general election soon enough to suit his own ends. He knows damn well that the longer voters have to judge him and his government as to whether or not they in fact represent a real change, the more certain it is that voters will conclude that they do not.

Novelty is a fleeting thing, partner, no different in politics than anything else.

The novelty voters are experiencing with Paul Martin will quickly fade, primarily because there is damn little novelty with this collection of old faces to begin with.

A great many people liked to think that Chretien was the real problem with the Liberals, and so they are breathing a collective sigh of relief now that he is finally gone...which currently is providing Martin what I would call the "sigh" factor, and is thus propping up his numbers in polling.

Nevertheless, the same issues and problems that faced Chretien still face Martin.

You think the Liberal caucus has changed its stripes suddenly? No. Same collection of clowns that it was a month ago, a year ago, three years ago. Or, as they say, same shit, different pile.

If he thought he could get away with it, Martin would call an election tomorrow.

But he's hamstrung by a few critical things:

a) The creation of the extra ridings out west, which will take time to affect. He jumps the gun on this one, he proves conclusively that he doesn't give a damn about the west.

He needs a budget in order to somehow show that he's different. It ultimately won't, but at least political imperatives dictate that he tries.

c) To call an election while the CPC, his primary competition, is in the midst of a leadership campaign would be generally perceived to be the act of a total asshole.

His biggest fear is that this leadership race will spark momentum for the CPC heading into that election, just as did the CA's in 2000, and which posed a serious threat then to the Liberals. It was only the combination of a vicious Liberal campaign, and Stock's ultimate unpreparedness for federal politics, that saved the Liberals from defeat, or at least a minority government.

Martin knows Harper, and thus knows that Harper, unlike Stock Day, will be all too prepared to go head to head with him.

And Martin knows very well that Harper will be, in the political arena of an election debate, an exceedingly formidable opponent.

The Liberals' attention to the NDP right now is merely recognition of the fact that, as I said, they are all too vulnerable in Ontario to the NDP bleeding off Liberal votes. Should the NDP suck up even a 10% gain in support there, the consequences to the Libs could be catastrophic.

The numbers solidly indicate that the combined conservative vote within those 70 to 80 ridings in which the CA/PCs pulled 30% + last time, poses a huge threat to at least 30 to 40 Liberal MPs this time. When you factor in a 10% drain by the NDP, that number increases substantially.

Which is precisely why Harper mused about a year ago that he wished the NDP were a more credible factor in federal politics.

While a 10% shift in Ontario to the NDP won't win them any more than 2 to 4 ridings, it could quite feasibly win the CPC as many as 60.

Lastly, keep this in mind:

If the electorate, during the election, begins to sense at any moment that a change is within reach, the entire election will spin on a dime immediately.

The CPC, without a leader, is already hovering at 25% in polling...which, if I recall correctly, is even better than where Mulroney was sitting in 1984.

I would suggest that, at any time henceforth, should that number trend upwards beyond 30%, things will start to get real tacky for the Liberals.

Momentum.

People love it, and are motivated by it.

Especially people who are fatigued with the status quo.

And Canadians are incredibly fatigued with this collection of clowns, of this there is no doubt...including amongst Liberals.

[Pellaken]

as to the NDP in the west

yes, it was a protest vote for a protest party

yes, voting reform was a protest protest

yes, voting ALLIANCE was also protest*2

the Tories however are not a protest party.

Jack Layton is the Canadian Howard Dean. He will create a Protest Party of the NDP yet.

[Neal.F.]

Good analogy Pell....

If Dean gets the Dumbocrud nomination,he'll be lucky to win even 3 States.

Jacko Will fare just as poorly.

[Pellaken]

Dean and the "Dumbocrats" will do much better then Bush and the Rapeublicans. The people will be tired of their government using them, Bush will be lucky to hold on to Texas

[Neal.F.]

Dean may not even win the nomination Gen Wesley Clark aka "Major Madonna" may well get the nod.

However, given that Bush has almost $200 million in the bank for this election while Dean and Clark have raised 25 million combined, with which they still have to fight the primaries, it looks to me that we have a repeat of 1996 where Slick Willie Klinton had the big fat bank account and poor Bob Dole was struggling with chump change like these Dumbocrud sacrificial lambs.