By-Elections

[August1991]

That doesn't make that much of a difference. It does however, give the Conservatives a little mroe breathing room in case of a nutbar NDP MP ignorning Layton whipping the caucus on a vote.

That's all I meant: other than psychological boost, these results have the practical effect of giving Harper some breathing room. In January 2006, he didn't have it. Now, with the various floorcrossings and these partials, he does.

Dion has rarely stepped away from a fight. However, his opportunity to turn the organization around is quickly narrowing.

He might be asked by some to resign tomorrow. However, many will probably wait to see how Ontario's election and upcoming by-elections will turn out.

I would never join a combined party. I'd rather be in party with one MP that I agreed with in principle than a party with many MPs that I didn't agree with.

I don't see Dion resigning, and I don't see the NDP/Liberals joining anytime soon.

The federal Liberal Party has to rebuild itself and give itself a raison d<etre. When Pearson was defeated in 1958, people didn't take it as the end of the world. I think Dion himself has to calm down about all this.

----

Good point about the upcoming by-elections. There are three: Toronto Centre, Willowdale and Vancouver-Quadra. They have to be held before January 2008.

Edited September 18, 2007 by August1991

[Pliny]

Dion! Hyuck, hyuck, hyuck! Looks good on him.

[geoffrey]

This is really bad news for the Liberals. It's even worse than it looks on the surface.

The NDP also beat the Liberals in Ste. Hyancithe. And you know what's even scarier, the NDP beat the Liberals in overall popular vote.

1-37% CPC

2-28% BQ

3-17% NDP

4-14% LIB

That's what I calculated the popular vote across all three ridings as. The Liberals are in serious trouble. The CPC looks very strong in Quebec. And the NDP? What the hell is up with that? Are people that dissatisfied with Dion and the Libeals?

Harper will force an election on the throne speech. All this negative press about Dion before a campaign, solid. Harper, with these numbers and for the first time ever, the media against a Liberal candidate, has a hope of pulling out a majority.

Now whether that is a good thing. I am unsure.

[jdobbin]

I don't see Dion resigning, and I don't see the NDP/Liberals joining anytime soon.

The federal Liberal Party has to rebuild itself and give itself a raison d<etre. When Pearson was defeated in 1958, people didn't take it as the end of the world. I think Dion himself has to calm down about all this.

----

Good point about the upcoming by-elections. There are three: Toronto Centre, Willowdale and Vancouver-Quadra. They have to be held before January 2008.

No major figure is going to step forward tomorrow most certainly. Liberal forces are going to throw themselves into winning Ontario provincially so that they have some organizational help in turn federally.

The other by-elections are coming up, as you say, in a few months. I'd say that is as long as the party can afford to wait to see if the Quebec by-election results can be overcome.

Dion needs to get a policy book in place, an organization on the ground and finances coming in to turn the tide.

[jdobbin]

That's what I calculated the popular vote across all three ridings as. The Liberals are in serious trouble. The CPC looks very strong in Quebec. And the NDP? What the hell is up with that? Are people that dissatisfied with Dion and the Libeals?

Harper will force an election on the throne speech. All this negative press about Dion before a campaign, solid. Harper, with these numbers and for the first time ever, the media against a Liberal candidate, has a hope of pulling out a majority.

Now whether that is a good thing. I am unsure.

I'd say the chances of the Liberals voting against the throne speech at the moment are nil.

Harper will have to wait to the end of his mandate unless there is a major change between now and then.

[jbg]

Outremont is a gerrymandered riding that's getting stranger and stranger over time. If one adds in the fact that this is a by-election, the result is not too odd. (BTW, Lapierre only won with 3000 votes in 2006.)

Why would you get a different result in a by-election than in a general election? And weren't there some "Jewish issues" in Outremont?

[jbg]

We'll see if Dion is asked to resign tomorrow or at the next caucus meeting.

Doesn't a leader, by tradition, get an opportunity to lead the party through at least one (and for John Turner two) ruinous elections before being shown the door?

[jbg]

It's almost sad this once proud party has fallen so far, so quickly.

So much for Canada's Natural Governing party.

Didn't that happen to Canada's Founding Party?

[kimmy]

I have several political barometers who I go to to ask about politics when I want to know what the average Canadian is thinking. They're women, and only scantily aware of the daily politics, and have a foot in both political worlds as far as issues go. None of them are partisan voters. They are all telling me they like Dion very much. One of them saw him on the CBC "your turn" and she says "I love" him! He has a real appeal, and that comes through quite clearly.

I think all the CPC can hope for now is that Dion has a tragic accident. Anything short of that and he's our next PM.

(lol.)

10 months ago, the forum's biggest Liberal boosters said the Conservatives needed a tragic accident to happen to Dion.

Now, the forum's biggest Liberal boosters say that the Liberals need a tragic accident to happen to Dion.

Clearly, this has been a poor night for the Liberals.

-k

[Shakeyhands]

Kimmy, I don't know a single Liberal personally that backs (or backed) Dion for Leader. Bluth spoke about the knives coming out, I suppose thats true. Why wait to get someone in there that can help turn things about. Its like not talking about the big purple monster in the corner.

[Keepitsimple]

A couple of questions:

1) Michael Ignatieff is 60 years old, Bob Rae is 59. If an election is held next year and the Liberals lose, it's probable that there will be a leadership review and a resulting convention. That would likely take us into 2009 where Ignatieff will be 62 and Rae, 61. If the Conservatives win a majority, that will add another 4 years to their age. Might it be wiser to start thinking about someone other than these two as the new face of the Liberals? And who might that be?

2) A lot has been said about the great integrity and honesty of Stepahane Dion. What has he done to earn these accolades? Until he came from nowhere to win the leadership race, he flew under everyone's radar. As such, he never had to be accountable for any positions that he held or decisions that he made. He was viewed as an academic nerd. Since he has been leader, his positions on just about anything have been wishy-washy, at best, and almost always take a very simplistic "against the Conservatives" slant. Integrity? Honesty? Do you think he's earned such a high profile in these values.

3) Dion has been accused of "Trudeau Federalism" - a strong central government with a paternalistic, if not subserviant view of the provinces. Duceppe refers to this as "Father knows Best". I believe that his view of Federalism is a large contributing factor to his dislike in Quebec. Paternalistic federalism is dead with the possible exception of the Maritimes. We are entering an era of open, cooperative, respectful Federalism. Do you agree in general that the "style" of our Federal government has to change (as it has with the Conservatives) to better reflect "maturing" of the provinces and their ability to service their citizens?

[jdobbin]

Why would you get a different result in a by-election than in a general election? And weren't there some "Jewish issues" in Outremont?

Quebec has had a tradition of the protest vote from time to time. In some past provincial and general elections, the voter turn-out has been higher and the results have been different from the by-election.

It is hard to say if that is the case this time or not.

Edited September 18, 2007 by jdobbin

[jdobbin]

Doesn't a leader, by tradition, get an opportunity to lead the party through at least one (and for John Turner two) ruinous elections before being shown the door?

It depends on the leader. Turner did have a disastrous first election and there was talk about the NDP eclipsing the Liberals at the time. Many Liberals retired or were ousted in that first election so there were few willing to lead at a time when the party was so down. Turner helped re-organize the party and focus it for the next election. At the beginning of the next election in 1988, the polls were predicting a Liberal majority. A well oiled Conservative campaign pushed the Liberal numbers down and vote splitting with the NDP on the issue of free trade resulted in a reduced majority.

It was a disappointment for Turner but he did manage to do one thing: The Liberals were now indisputably the Official Opposition with double the numbers of MPs they had going into the election.

Dion's problem is that the long lead time into his first election puts focus on his ability to organize, raise money and choose candidates. On all three counts, he has not performed. Moreover, there are several leadership candidates waiting in the wings to take over.

[Pliny]

A couple of questions:

1) Michael Ignatieff is 60 years old, Bob Rae is 59. If an election is held next year and the Liberals lose, it's probable that there will be a leadership review and a resulting convention. That would likely take us into 2009 where Ignatieff will be 62 and Rae, 61. If the Conservatives win a majority, that will add another 4 years to their age. Might it be wiser to start thinking about someone other than these two as the new face of the Liberals? And who might that be?

Bob Layton looks good. If the party wishes to remain that far to the left.

2) A lot has been said about the great integrity and honesty of Stepahane Dion. What has he done to earn these accolades? Until he came from nowhere to win the leadership race, he flew under everyone's radar. As such, he never had to be accountable for any positions that he held or decisions that he made. He was viewed as an academic nerd. Since he has been leader, his positions on just about anything have been wishy-washy, at best, and almost always take a very simplistic "against the Conservatives" slant. Integrity? Honesty? Do you think he's earned such a high profile in these values.

Good question. Does anybody know?

3) Dion has been accused of "Trudeau Federalism" - a strong central government with a paternalistic, if not subserviant view of the provinces. Duceppe refers to this as "Father knows Best". I believe that his view of Federalism is a large contributing factor to his dislike in Quebec. Paternalistic federalism is dead with the possible exception of the Maritimes. We are entering an era of open, cooperative, respectful Federalism. Do you agree in general that the "style" of our Federal government has to change (as it has with the Conservatives) to better reflect "maturing" of the provinces and their ability to service their citizens?

Are you talking a decentralization of power? All the work of the seventies and early eighties for naught? All the arrogance, pork-barreling and privilege of consecutive federal administrations, be they whig or tory, brought to heel? Yeah! I'm for change.

Edited September 18, 2007 by Pliny

[White Doors]

My predictions for the by-elections on Monday:

The NDP will win Outremont

The CPC will win Roberval

The Bloc will win Saint Hyachinte-Bagot.

Nice! I think you got it right!

[M.Dancer]

When I heard the NDP won in Montreal, you clould have knocked me down with a feather.

If you thought Layton was an obnoxious insufferable egotistical peacock before.........just wait.

[kengs333]

The Liberals are dead in the water. It's just a matter of when Harper wants to finish them off. From his standpoint an election in November would be prudent should things turn out favourably in Ontario. The economy is doing fine, no scandals to worry about, and the situation in Afghanistan has settled down now that the winter months are approaching.

[jdobbin]

The Liberals are dead in the water. It's just a matter of when Harper wants to finish them off. From his standpoint an election in November would be prudent should things turn out favourably in Ontario. The economy is doing fine, no scandals to worry about, and the situation in Afghanistan has settled down now that the winter months are approaching.

I still haven't seen a poll where the Tories are over 40% in the polls and able to hold it.

As for Afghanistan. From today:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/domesticNews...815239820070918

A British soldier has been killed and another has been injured in an explosion in southern Afghanistan's embattled Helmand province, the Ministry of Defence said on Tuesday.

The two were in a logistics convoy 19 kilometres north east of the town of Gereshk when the explosion happened on Monday afternoon.

Both were evacuated by helicopter to Camp Bastion where the very seriously injured soldier from 36 Royal Engineer Regiment was pronounced dead on arrival.

[Michael Bluth]

The Liberals are dead in the water. It's just a matter of when Harper wants to finish them off. From his standpoint an election in November would be prudent should things turn out favourably in Ontario. The economy is doing fine, no scandals to worry about, and the situation in Afghanistan has settled down now that the winter months are approaching.

I think things turning out 'favourably' in Ontario is pretty wishful thinking.

At this point the best the PCs could hope for in Ontario is to hold the Liberals to a minority in the provincial election.

Edited September 19, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[old_bold&cold]

I do not thinkthat the Liberalsin Ontario's election in Oct, will do very well. It will take a bit more time for the polls to start reflecting the numbers but Mc Guinty hid from the openess of the plow match and only stayed near his liberal faithful, because he was booed before at this event, and did not want that to repeat itself. This shows that he is scared of facing the people. Especially the down to earth farmers who can not see that Toronto is the center of everything. He stayed only where his own could control the crowd. That is pathetic of him and his party.

His stance on the schools is also laughable as he can not even give proper answers as to why his own child and wife are part of a faith based schooling, when he says that these are going to be the death of the public system. His answer is that Catholic schools are part of the legal school system. And why is that? Cough cough sputter sputter!!!

The facts are just now coming public how two years ago the syrplus was 300 Million only because his government hide the real numbers about it and last minute spending brought it down to that number. Sound familiar about Liberals and backroom deals and spending etc. to hide what might be politically unsavourable to his party. But this should go into the provincial section, but when you say that the provincial numbers will not change much, I say they well may change a lot of things. If the Tory's win in Ontario, then things will look very bad for the liberals of all stripes.

[jdobbin]

December 30 is the deadline for the by-election where Bob Rae is running for office. The deadlines for further Ontario elections come quickly after.

I wonder if Harper will announce them all or let them happen one at a time.

[jdobbin]

Harper has announced four byelections for March 17, 2008.

Those ridings are: Toronto Centre (Ontario), Willowdale (Ontario), Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia) and Desnethé-Missnippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan).

[Shakeyhands]

Harper has announced four byelections for March 17, 2008.

Those ridings are: Toronto Centre (Ontario), Willowdale (Ontario), Vancouver Quadra (British Columbia) and Desnethé-Missnippi-Churchill River (Saskatchewan).

March 17th????? Why wait that long. More posturing and games.

[jdobbin]

March 17th????? Why wait that long. More posturing and games.

Probably hoping that there will be an election by then and after a Conservative budget.

Of course, Harper has said there will be no more tax cuts in that budget. He would have to say that because the government is running a deficit.

It will be good to have Martha Hall Findlay and Bob Rae as well as former B.C. cabinet minister Joyce Murray in the House of Commons. Still not sure who is going to run in Saskatchewan.

[Michael Bluth]

Of course, Harper has said there will be no more tax cuts in that budget. He would have to say that because the government is running a deficit.

Yet another falsification. Here is the real evidence on the Government's fiscal situation.

The year-to-date surplus, while considerably smaller than last month, is still $200 million higher than during the same period last year when the final surplus totalled $13.8 billion.

So we are on track for a $14 billion surplus. How is the government running a deficit again?