Breaking News! Lord Set To Run

[dnsfurlan]

Gugsy - Newsflash: Bernard Lord hasn't proven he's the saviour.

If he comes into the leadership race and proves himself capable against Harper, then so much the better for him.

But I really don't get where this hysteria over Lord comes from.

He's a premier of a small province with modest accomplishments and modest challenges.

And I don't think the charisma and intelligence are there to the extent people - especially PCs - believe.

The only thing Lord has proven so far is that he is a small-timer.

Again, I think Lord's entry into the race is more about appeasing PCers than it is about electoral success.

Lord has something to prove before becoming leader of this party. So does Harper, for that matter.

Let the fights begin. Let's roll!

[maplesyrup]

In approximately 1 hour (I thought it was 4, but it must be 5 PM EST) Don Newman's show Politics on CBC Newsworld will be discussing Bernard Lord's candidacy for the Conservative Party.

I predict it will be Chuck Strahl and Bernard Lord on the final ballot, and that Lord will take it.

We might be heading into a minority government situation but right now, Prime minister Martin is looking over his left shoulder, not his right.

The NDP are coming on like gangbusters at the moment, and their upword momentum in the polls is showing it. Watch for the NDP to be even higher in the next polling, since Mr Broadbent has thrown his hat into the ring in Ottawa Centre, which he will win.

Ottawa Centre is quite a symbolic riding by-the-way, as it includes Parliament Hill.

Martin's close buddy Richard Mahoney thought he had a catwalk there. Nothing like going for the jugular, eh?

I'm sure Mr Martin is having lots of bad hair days these days.

Cheers,

Edited December 19, 2003 by maplesyrup

[westcoast99]

MacKay and Harper are both to be commended for their efforts on the merger, they both worked equally hard.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Gugsy

[dnsfurlan]

Harper has done so poorly it's laughable.

That is such a gross over-statment that is seriously sheds doubt on your ability to make clear judgements on these matters, in my opinion.

He has turned his party around, accomplished merger despite Mackay's clear reservartions, and a leading candidate in the upcoming leaderhsip race.

To say his performance is poor and laughable makes me wonder about your ability to judge and reason.

Its one thing to have doubts about Harper. Its quite another to make the enourmously bloated claims you've made in this thread.

[Neal.F.]

Funny. On the one hand the Alliance is supposed to be so weak under Harper. On the other hand it is so strong that it simply over-powered the haplesss PC Party of Canada.

GRanted the PC Party was in no great shape after the past 10 years, but they had picked up enough strength, that Mr Harper came to the conclusion that he needed them alongside instead of dismissing them.

The fact is that both parties needed each other, and at this point in time, they both brought strengths to the table which could help overcome the other's weaknesses.

We should also remember another fact. The Canadian Alliance no longer exists. Nor does the PC party. all loyalties should be transferred to the new entity.

I do not care which "side" the leader comes from. I am onlyy concerned that he can win, without selling out conservative values.

Dennis, I think your slagging Lord for coming from a small province with small problems was most unfair. New Brunswick is a small provoince, indeed, but one with big problems. he has also managed a caucus nearly the same size as the former CA's in Ottawa.

Where a leader calls home is of no consequence to me as long as he is willing to govern with the best interests of the whole country in mind.

Lord is going to have to go through the rigours of a leadership contest. He will be going up against the intellectual policy wonk Harper, and the forcful, charismatic Chuck Strahl among others. If he is left standing after that, then he's earned it. And the same applies to the other candidates.

Maplesyrup's prediction is quite interesting. And if it holds true, then Mr harper will end up as the probable kingmaker. It will be interesting to see where he casts his lot, should this be the case.

[westcoast99]

Harper has done so poorly it's laughable.

That is such a gross over-statment that is seriously sheds doubt on your ability to make clear judgements on these matters, in my opinion.

He has turned his party around, accomplished merger despite Mackay's clear reservartions, and a leading candidate in the upcoming leaderhsip race.

To say his performance is poor and laughable makes me wonder about your ability to judge and reason.

Its one thing to have doubts about Harper. Its quite another to make the enourmously bloated claims you've made in this thread.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Gugsy

[dnsfurlan]

Gugsy,

I have no problems with these kinds of arguments against Harper, even thought I think they're wrong. I know Begbie and respectfully disagree with his well thought-out opinions.

However, the problem I have with some of your posts is that you summarily dismiss a candidate that many in the new party will support whole-heartedly, and you do it either by making unsubstantiated claims or by displaying outright contempt for Harper and his supporters.

I just think your posts should be a little more well thought-out.

[westcoast99]

Just because you disagree does not mean they're not well thought out.

Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[Neal.F.]

What Gugsy has pointed out, is a question that is going to dog Harper throughout the campaign. Likeability is going to become an issue.

It will also be one of the factors that Party members will be watching for. Not just likeability but the ability to really shake things up with their personality.

Look at George W Bush. he is a strong personality. You either love him, or hate him with every fibre of your being. It's one or the other. Lukewarm doesn't cut it in the age of the soundbite.

Brian Mulroney came in with the same boyish good looks (and at a relatively similar age) as Bernard Lord. Whether you liked Mulroney or not, he made an indelible impression. Remember the stature and respect in the world Canada had under Mulroney. He flew with Eagles, while the Liberals run with the turkeys.

US canada relations were never better than when Brian and Ronald Reagan sang "When Irish eyes are smiling" .

Image will count for much. Chuck Strahl has the kind of presence that one cannot ignore either. He speaks clearly, and forcefully. He's also got that very fashionable look about him, with the Goatee.

Shallow as all this seems, it will have to be considered carefully.

[Michael Hardner]

Shallow as all this seems, it will have to be considered carefully.

It is shallow, but it's part of the package. Gore, in my opinion, showed himself to have well thought out policies on many topics and I'm sure many Americans felt so too.

But Gore didn't ellicit trust or good feeling in people. He was the student council president, the teacher's pet, the know-it-all.

Normally, I'm the first one to decry the endless victories of style over substance, but Al Gore just didn't cut it. He wasn't presidential enough.

And, come 9-11, Gore would have had a much harder time unifying the country IMO.

[maplesyrup]

This may sound very far-fetched at the moment, but we actually could be heading into a minority government situation, after the next election, expected in May 2004.

What is paramont is who a political party chooses as its leader.

Neal F is correct that it does not matter one iota which province a leader coming from.

And forget what a lot of our political pundits, or so-called experts are saying. A lot of them have tunnel vision, or they have a particular agenda, often secret, to promote.

We live in a fast changing world, and a lot of them aren't up-to-date, whether or not intentionally.

What does matter, whether one likes it or not, in Canada, if one aspires to be a national leader, is whether or not the leader is fluently bilingual.

Timing is everything in politics, just as it is in a lot of other things in life.

I'll explain what I mean.

Paul Martin - from Quebec & bilingual

Jack Layton - from Ontario & bilingual

Brian Tobin, who comes from Newfoundland, probably would be a lot more effective than Paul Martin as leader of the Liberal party right now. But unfortunately for him the timing was wrong, as Paul Martin has had a lock on the Liberal party's leadership for some time. As an aside, notice though, that Tobin is still around, and if Martin blows things and needs to be replaced, the timing may then be right for Tobin.

(Newfoundland - bilingual)

Frank McKenna, former premier of New Brunswick, similarly had federal Liberal leadership hopes, but once again, maybe the right person for the Liberals, but the wrong time for him as well. McKenna is expected to run in the next election which, if Lord does does win the leadership of the Conservatives, will make New Brunswick a fascinating battleground.

(New Brunswick - bilingual)

Svend Robinson ran previously, for the leadership of the NDP, not the most recent race that Jack Layton won, but the one before that, against Alexa McDonough. Robinson would have been much more effective than McDonough, however once again timing, right person, wrong time.

British Columbia - bilingual)

One major reason that all these folks have a national presence is their command of both of Canada's two official languages, English and French. If that's a problem, you need to get over it, if you wish to really suceed in Canadian national political affairs.

Remmeber what our election campaigns are mainly about. Once a day, for is it 30 or 60 days, the average Canadian Joe and Jane public, the folks whose votes you depend on to get your party members elected, watch a brief clip of what each party leader says on their evening news. They decide who to vote for, primarily on what they see of the respective party leaders.

Yes policy is important, but thre are party conventions, the party caucus, etc., to deal with those issues. What is key to a successful election campaign is who you choose as leader. Issues are much better being dealt with as a group and, quite frankly, more democratic.

I think the Conservative party is staring a gift horse in the mouth.

Bernard Lord is/has:

1 - youngful energy - what is the House of Commons, an old folk's home? (absolutely no disrespect intended towards seniors here, I have immense respect for them, but we need some of Canada's youthful energy and vision, as well)

2 - great credentials - successful and current Premier of New Brunswick with two election victories.

3 - bilingual - essential for a national leader in Canada

4 - francophone - what a great opportunity to attract Quebec and other francophone votes, and remeber Quebec has 75 seats, 24% of the total number of seats (the Liberals have usually alternated their leaders between French and English, and it has been quite effective for them).

Where Lord comes from, which province it is, is of no consequence, and coming from New Brunswick, with the current perceptions in the eyes of the Canadian public, could even be a bonus.

One final thing, if the Conservatives have nationwide dreams of getting elected, to form a government, they will have to moderate, and possibly get rid of some of those loose cannons, that quite frankly scare a large part of the Canadian society, and whose comments have done a lot to damage the Reform/Alliance politically.

Remeber timing is everything, so seize the moment.

Conservative party leadership voters will have to decide whether or not they want to win. Chretien did and he was in the House of Commons for 40 years, I think, and Canada's prime minister for 10 years.

Oh yes, Chretien was bilingual too.

First the PCs were worried about being taken over by the Alliance, and now the Alliance members are worried about the leader coming from the PCs. Life is strange.

Politics is the art of compromise, and don't ever forget it. You will never get all you want, and if you seriously take the time to listen to another person's point of view, you might be surprised. We don't know what the future holds.

Vive le Canada libre!

And yes I agree that Canada's first past-the-post system is quite unfair, and quite unrepresentative of the Canadian electorate, with political parties forming majority governments with only high thirties, and low forties percentwise of the popular vote. Proportional representation is the answer, but that conversation is for another time.

If anyone is interested in the subject there is an excellent website at:

www.fairvotecanada.org

[Alliance Fanatic]

First of all, Harper did alot better job as leader of the Alliance, than Peter Mackay did of the PC's. I do not believe that Harper put the Alliance way down in the polls either, to base people's success on what a pollster says is absolutely stupid, especially if it comes from the CBC, Canada's Pravda, whose pollsters always rave that politicians should make positions based on polls, and not on principle. As for national opinion polls, here is one from 92

PC-33%

Lib-22%

NDP-20%

Ref-8%

BQ-8%

After the election

Lib-40%

Ref-20%

PC-16%

BQ-14%

NDP-10%

As for leadership, if Lord is running on a moderate pro-life, moderately traditionalist platform, the I will support him. However if he supports a socially liberal platform than I will support Stephen Harper. One question that I would have for Benard Lord is, why did he allow gay marriage in NB, he should have token the same steps as Alberta.

I also find it strange that Gugsy has been infuriated over the Alberta Agenda, when Ontario, and Quebec have the same measures in those provinces, which seems hypocritical, Ontario and Quebec can have it, but those people in the colony of Alberta can't.

May I also add that Mackay, and the PC's were not that popular with Mackay, that is one of the most idiotic things I have ever heard in my life. The PC's and Alliance were always basically at the same level 15%-20%, may I also add that Gugsy you usually watches the CBC, so he might believe half of the crap pravda spews out of the television. [no offense]

[Neal.F.]

Maplesyrup,

Good post. Just two things:

Martin is actually from Onatrio, but moved to Quebec, and Layton is from Quebec and moved to Ontario.

Bilingualism will make the difference, whether we like it or not. You need to be able to reach the people by speaking (not reading) to them in their own language. It really is seen as a question of resp[ect for the other founding people. I live here, and I know that for a fact. In the heady days of Rene Levesque, I was told by many people that there would never have been a separatist movement if English canadians had shown respect for French canadians.

If Joe Clark spoke French in 1979 as well as he does today, he could probably have wone even a handful more seats in Quebec, and made his government a majority. Instead, it took Brian Mulroney to give the Conservatives a majority. John Turner's French was mediocre.

Alliance fanatic. What sweet memories you bring back with those poll niumbers from 1992. Jean Chretien was yesterday's man, and would soon be replaced after yet another conservative victory..... sigh.... how things went wrong!

Lord did not allow gay marirage in NB. But provided for civil unions. Bad move. it was a compromise that nenver should have been made. Only Ontario, & BC allow gay marriage.

But before we jump on one bandwagon or another we need to watch carefully what these guys can do. All we have now are first impressions. The leadership race should be viewed as a dry run up to the real election, which by all indications will happen shortly after the new leader is chosen. we need to see how much attention their campaigning can generate, since ultimately the campaign is what will make the difference as to whether the CP unseats Martin or not.

HArper may have the qualifuications, but if he can't generate appeal, the qualifications are for nought. Lord may have his quakituies too, but if the don't move the numbersa what's the point.....

Then there's Chuck Strahl, who might well be a dark horse. And his French has come a long way too.

This may NOT be a two horse race.

[Galahad]

Harper's western separatist associations will be played up by the Liberals next election.  By electing Lord, the CPC will nip all of that in the bud and open up Quebec.

BINGO !!!

[maplesyrup]

Does anyone else get the feelin' something is wrong concerning Lord's decision to enter the leadership contest of the Conservative Party?

Last week we were told it was just about to happen, and that he just wanted to confirm some weekend polling results. Why the hesitation? Do you think that the numbers aren't there for him?

What was being polled anyway? Did it have to do with how much or how little support the Conservative party has with Canadians? So even if he runs, and does get the leadership, not much is going to change.

Or was the poll about how much support there is for him from the Conservative members? And maybe Harper already has a lock on it.

Another thing Lord mentioned last week is that he wanted to discuss things with Peter MacKay first. Now why would he want to publically ally himself with MacKay who, for all intent and purposes, is toast with the Canadian electorate, let alone a certain percentage of the PC members, and probably will have difficulty to win his own seat again in Nova Scotia.

Another complication is the Sinclair Steven's lawsuit? I'm no lawyer but it sounds like he may have a case. What happens if the PC party is revived due to a court ruling?

Why would someone who has a certain amount of credibility at the moment, want to get involved in such a mess?

Two other points:

1 - I'm not aware of any Canadian politician who made the jump successfully from premier to prime minister. Federal politics is very very different than provincial politics, and success in one does not ensure the success in the other.

2 - A lot of Canadians are perceiving that the Liberals are now on the right of Canadian politics. Is there really room for another party from the right in Canada?

I just don't understand Lord's hesitation. After all, one would think that if he was to have a chance at all, getting delegates (I presume there will be a convention of sorts to choose the leader), he should have already announced his going ahead.

Listening to him talk yesterday I did not at all get the impression that it was a go.

I wonder what is really going on behind those closed doors.

It could be quite devestasting for the Conservative party if he decides not to run, don't you think?

Maybe all the eggs should not be in one basket.

And for all the Lord fans here's something I just read, that you can sink your teeth into. in today's Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/Art...3/TPColumnists/