Predictions For The New Conservative Party ?

[Michael Hardner]

I'm curious as to what people think the new party will poll in the next election, and how many seats they will win.

I'll guess 20% and 90 seats to start off.

Anyone else ? Guess carefully now...

[Galahad]

I'm curious as to what people think the new party will poll in the next election, and how many seats they will win.

I'll guess 20% and 90 seats to start off.

Anyone else ? Guess carefully now...

Even without the leader in place, I can practically guarantee that it will be OVER 20% & OVER 90 seats.

Once the leader is chosen, or even before, if I think that there happens to be a real shoe-in in the wings, I will make a precise prediction.

[Michael Hardner]

Once the leader is chosen, or even before, if I think that there happens to be a real shoe-in in the wings, I will make a precise prediction.

You don't think Harper is a shoo-in ?

[westcoast99]

Strong showing, 100+ seats

Edited August 11, 2015 by Gugsy

[dnsfurlan]

Too soon to tell.

Way too many variables left open six months before an election. And there may even be some pressure on Martin not to call one in the name of democratic spirit - give the new party a chance to get its feet on the ground.

Will the new party be organized in time? Will the new leader and the new message be crafted well enough to attract enough voters from coast to coast to coast? Will Paul Martin stumble? Will Jack Layton stumble? Will external events spin the dynamics in a way yet unforseen?

Personally, and I know I'm biased, I'd like to see a number of these factors go our way. Harper is a smart guy capable of smart policies. Paul Martin looks like a John Turner waiting to happen all over again. Jack Layton looks like a Jack Layton waiting to happen all over the place. The new Conservative Party could deliver a message Canadians have been waiting for for a long time - esp. restoring some pride in our country once again.

Hey, if these kinds of things can happen, and Harper is known for his organizatianal ability, I'm not going to rule out a minority Conservative government - 75 seats in the West, 35 seats in Ontario, 15 seats out East, 5 in Quebec (depending on what happens with the BQ).

[Slavik44]

well lets see...

east of quebec...maybe 10 seats

Quebec maybe 2 seats

Ontario lets say 10 seats

manitoba maybe 4 seats

Saskatchewan maybe 7 seats

Alberta Maybe 26 seats (yes a total wash out)

B.C 20 Seats

Territories 0 seats

--------------------------------------

so that would be about 79 seats, i say its realistic enough

[Goldie]

Conservatives 30.3% = 76 seats

[Mr. Chater]

I'll go out on the wing here...

37% support, 140 seats (minority gov't).

even that would be an amazing start for the New Conservative Party. To be able to get rid of the Liberal Era and bring us to a New Conservative time is a big change. Espicially if it is a new party just formed before the election. A minority government would be a big step for Canada, and it is about time.

[Neal.F.]

Paulie Waulie has nowhere to go but down. He has been put so high on a pedestal that when he falls, he will fall hard. Expectations are through the roof since he has promised to be everything to everyone.

That is why he will call his election early. before people see its just a new driver in the getaway car.

Organizationally Team Martin (not the Libeeral party. Martin has been running a party within a party for years.) is rock solid all the way through to sask and Alberta, where it is weakest, and in BC where he has made gains for the party.

For the conservatives, the CA has a powerful machine on the ground from BC to the Ontario border, while the Progressive Conservatives are still capable of waging effective war in the 4 eastern provinces. Onatrio is where consolidation will have to be effected most quickly. The newly merged Riding associations need to elect their new executive in december, and immediately open nominations, so that an esprit de corps, and the creation of something both groups can call their own that they created together can be ready to seriously contest at least 85 of the 103-108 seats there will be.

In Quebec, both parties are a shambles. They will have to get their respective associations together quickly too, though in many cases they could merge and still have trouble filling a public lavatory.

This is where the crumbling Bloc comes in. One Bloquiste jumped ship and joined Martin's gang last week (Jacques Lanctot - Chateauguay) while it is rumoured that former Tory Pierrette Venne (St. Hubert) may be joining the Conservatives. The Bloc has lost seven MPs over the last year, and it may crumble further. What this means is that the hardcore separatists will likely stay at home should it appear the Bloc is destined for oblivion, while others who voted for them so they would not have to vote Liberal may potentially be interested in having a look at the new Conservative party. Some more MPs, looking to save their electoral skin may jump in any of three directions (yes even the NDP) so the potential for a few seats is there. If André Bachand sticks it out (He has been quiet lately) he could well retain his seat. For some reason I can't fathom, Pierrette Venne seems to be able to win her seat no matter what banner she flies, and there are some ridings where it could be a real horserace, subject to strong candidates being found by the CP. AT this time Martin is believed by some to be conducting a purge of anyone in the party who has shown even the slightest hesitation in terms of obsequiousness, and it is said that some MPs such as Raymonde Folco (Laval Ouest), Clifford Lincoln (Lac St Louis), Carole-Marie Allard (Laval-est), and Yolande Thibault (St. Lambert) may well be on their way out. Two of those ridings are winnable (St Lambert & LAval-est) as both only won by a handful of votes. Laval Ouest is a longshot, but doable with the right candidate. Lac St Louis, they'll vote Liberal UNLESS the candidate, was parachuted in from Vancouver and never made ana appearance in the riding as in 1984. IN that election Bob Layton (yes, the father of Jacko) won handily, and held on in 1988 by less than 700 votes. But apart from that It has been Liberal territory from time immemorial, and the new borders make it even more so.

So, I think that all going well, the conservatives can elect 25 in BC, 26 in Alberta, 6 in Sask., 5 in MB, 35-40 in Ontario, 2-7 in Quebec, and 15-18 downeast. this means, 112-127 seats, a more than healthy opposition, and possibly a hung parliament, should the Bloc hold 25, and the NDP win that many themselves.

[Craig Read]

From DNS, good quote:

Harper is a smart guy capable of smart policies. Paul Martin looks like a John Turner waiting to happen all over again. Jack Layton looks like a Jack Layton waiting to happen all over the place. The new Conservative Party could deliver a message Canadians have been waiting for for a long time - esp. restoring some pride in our country once again.

I agree DNS Harper is clearly the brightest of the bunch. However the Libs will easily win the next election:

-Corporate sponsorships and greased palms support Martin

-CBC and most of the mainstream media will support Martin

-The Libs will appeal to socialism and welfare and 'Da Cdn way' and explain to the public that Harper is the anti-christ

-Stats Can and CBC commentators will convince most Cdns that life here is better, safer, and more moral than in the savage lands of the USA and that Harper and his crew are masquerading Rush Limbaugh personalities who will eat babies if given a chance

Harper's main impact will be on what he FORCES the Liberals to do once in opposition:

-Reduce spend and taxes

-Reduce the outflow of skilled labor from this country

-Increase our military spend and security spend

-Reform health care and obliterate regional/corporate subsidy programs to pay for the military

-Parliamentary reform

The new PC/CA party needs to pick 5 or 6 ideas and ruthlessly pursue them, in the face of the babbling left's moronic posturing and howling.

This would be a great service to the country.

[Neal.F.]

Craig, If people will be stupid enough to fall for the Kinsellaesque hyperbolic smear tactics once again, then this country for which many quality individuals gave their lives, will not be worth a damn, nothing more thana whining, sneering socialist nanny-state that as far as I'm concerned will have lost its moral right to exist as a country.

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me"

I don't yet consiider Martin a done-deal, he has set expections so high he can't possibly satisfy anyone, let alone everyone. Unless he goes to the polls early, he stands a good chance of being defeated.

I also do not consider Harper as a shoo-in for the CP leadership. Prentice is a force to be reckoned with. He has strength in Quebec, and under the voting suystem, as I understand it, small quebec associations will have the same clout as big Alberta ones. Prentice is also popular in Alberta and BC.

Then there's Chuck Strahl. I don't think he'll be too popular among PCs, but he does ahve a strong and forceful no-nonsense style presence, and may be what is needed to go up against martin.

IT's just beginning, and hopefully it will be a real contest and not a coronation. That's the last thing the new party needs.

[Craig Read]

Harper should win and let's hope he does. He is the brightest and the best qualified and commands increasing respect in the media. The 'CA' must control the fiscal agenda of the new party.

Joe Clark and his cohorts moved the PCs far to the left and they have no credibility on fiscal affairs and no economic vision.

Joe Clark is in short - an unmitigated failure and disgrace. Mackay is an unknown and as evidenced by his decision to do a deal with that moron Orchard, not a man that is a heavy or deep thinker, or one that abides by principle.

The Tories can aid in modifying the social conservatism and repackaging it to appear to be at least 'neutral' for Eastern voters.

Combined the new entity if it hammers 5 or 6 key and large themes, and stays consistent [unlike the old Tories and blow with the wind Joe Clark], should have a good chance at forming a reputable and respected opposition with real power.

[Neal.F.]

I wouild agree with your assesment of MacKay's chances... he doomed himself with that piece of Orchardite paper. I hope he stays with the party, and he should be rewarded for the sacrifice he made, but think of what kind of field day Kinsella and the smear squad would have.....

Harper would be a good choice, but I think a coronation would be a disaster. What is needed is a exciting, hotly contested leadership race, which will for 5 weeks or so, rip the attention away from Paulie Waulie who has dominated the media which hangs on every word his spokespeople utter on his behalf.

If there's a race, Harper will have an ooportunity to show himself in good stead, or make a horse's ass of himself. If he does the former, the spring election could be a real contest, or even be postponed, which will be to Martin's disadvantage.

However, if it appears to be a coronation, the old , prejudiced view of Harper will prevail, and be used constantly against him by Warren's Warriors.

[Boydfish]

I seriously doubt that BC will return more than two Liberals to Ottawa. The Canadian Liberals are not that popular in BC(It's important to remember that most Canadian polls are wildly inaccurate in BC, as they use Canadian poltical terminology rather than British Columbian when doing their polling. A Liberal in BC is a strong right winger, while the reverse is true in Canada.).

The only advantage that Liberals have in BC is that Canadian politics are at best viewed with a yawn by British Columbians: Our votes don't count in your elections.

The biggest question will be if the CPC and in a larger extention, Canadians in general, grasp that the western provinces will give them one shot: If they pander to the Canadian agenda and ignore Alberta and BC, we'll simply withdraw from your confederation.

This election will probably be the last election in the confederation, as Martin will simply wave the "My God! A Western PM might be elected! It's better to have the worst Canadian than the best British Columbian!" flag at Ontario and Quebec and he'll win. Doubt it? Worked for Cretin, didn't it?

[Morgan]

I'll be optimistic like Neal and go with 115-125 seats for the conservatives.

But to accomplish this number of wins, I think the movers and shakers in the CA/PC conservatives , need to start drawing up plans now about how to fight Kinsella-like in the federal election. Conservatives need to develop a strategy to present their strengths, protect their weaknesses, and attack the weaknesses of the LPOC/NDP.

Clearly Harper is the smartest guy of the lot-I'm not saying he'll win the leadership, but I'm saying if the merged PC/alliance has him or someone like him at the helm, leadership would be a strength, so the back room boys don't have to worry about that aspect of the election campaign. Whereas I think Paul is a weakness to the LPOC -too much skullduggery in his past and issue flip flopping. Layton is personable enough but IMHO he has a bit too much of a slick used car salesman aura. Layton is a neutral to the NDP.

So like Craig said elsewhere I think the conservatives need to focus on platforms [with answers not just attacks against LPOC], getting party members to agree to disciplined unified responses to iparty platform issues, undermining the image of opposing parties by painting NDP/LPOC as one choice not 2 separate parties thereby repelling social moderates and fiscal conservatives from the LPOC, and good pre-election publicity for the conservative party's goals and promises.Hire the best commercial PR agency they can afford.

a. Platforms-if the conservatives keep their ideas limited in number and simply stated -these are only examples:

-health care reform starting with more provincial independence on how federal funding is used provided all provinces allow for "access" to universal health care as one of the choices

- military reform with a better budget based on other Nato countries' average per capita support and increase of military salaries/benefits based on comps from other Nato countries

-immigration reform with a revision of annual quotas so they reflect what other G8 countries take in per year on a per capita basis and a creation of sub class of priority immigration candidates within "business class" of immigrants who are credentialed/experienced and commit themselves to serve in the Cdn. military for 5 years

- public referendum on the issue of same sex marriage followed by a constitutional amendment if needed based on the results of the referendum

- intellectual freedom/free choice - bring up reform in CRTC committee's and side with cable companies[become allies with them] saying that since 65% of citizens have spoken in a recent poll that they want more choice and not be forced to act criminally with dishes to get their choice you'll fight against current staist control of television/radio and furthermore commit the party to fight against UN's plan to control the Internet, saying it's bad for intellectual freedom and bad for developed countries period.

b. Then the conservatives should look to protecting their weakness - example:same sex marriage referendum -fundies and red tories need to get on board way ahead of the election with this idea and "politic" accordingly ie. " Our party has DECIDED to let Canadians decide what's best for Canada and therefore our personal preferences are irrelevant, we have only one vote each like all Canadians and OUR PARTY is committed to ABIDING with whatever Canadians tell us they want." Period, end of story, fermez le bouche and that goes for the Larry Spencer types as well as the Scott Brison types.

c. Then work to the LPOC/NDP weakness - which is work to their similarities-paint them as being more similar than different so as to divide the vote between the Left wing voters and to attract fiscal liberals and social moderates from the LPOC.

d. Publicity-this is EXCEEDINGLY IMPORTANT-I believe the LPOC's main power is their control of the media, thus controlling the message. The conservatives need to commit a sizeable portion of their campaign budget to publicity no 2 ways about it. Conservatives need to get their message out to counter balance Pravda CBC. Conservatives need the owners of cable companies on board by courting them a.s.a.p. and promising them that the conservatives will reform CRTC and will get their digtal packages approved withing 12 months if they give conservatives as much air time as possible leading up to and after the election.

Conservatives need to meet with the Asper Family a.s.a.p. and promise them that conservatives will fight against anti-semitism in Canada with all the legal tools available and that conservatives will posture a more balanced approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict diplomatically then it is today, which is heavily weighted as pro-Palestine. Conservatives need the Aspers to counter balance the Liberal's support in the CBC, even if the Aspers, a long standing LPOC family, only promise NEUTRALITY in their Editorial viewpoints... neutral is good and far better than pro-LPOC as the Aspers have been in previous elections.

Take out full page ads with basic platform promises in the Globe and Mail , National Post and in all 10 highest circulating newspapers every weekend in the last 2 months before the election. Canadians still have one of the highest newspaper readership in the country. Use that to conservatives' advantage.

And like Boydfish says the conservatives should not take their popularity in the Western provinces for granted. They need to get them to go out and vote conservative not throw their hands up in exasperation that their votes don't count anyways blah, blah Get the west inspired that this new conservative party is re-energized and has not forgotten the West's concerns.

But I'm not as pessimistic about the breakdown of confederation in the near future as Boydfish is.

[Galahad]

Clearly Harper is the smartest guy of the lot-I'm not saying he'll win the leadership, but I'm saying if the merged PC/alliance has him or someone like him at the helm, leadership would be a strength, so the back room boys don't have to worry about that aspect of the election campaign.

I wonder what Preston Manning would have to say about that? I wonder who HIS ace card for the leadership is?

When will we hear from him, already??

[Galahad]

Clearly Harper is the smartest guy of the lot-I'm not saying he'll win the leadership, but I'm saying if the merged PC/alliance has him or someone like him at the helm, leadership would be a strength, so the back room boys don't have to worry about that aspect of the election campaign.

I wonder what Preston Manning would have to say about that? I wonder who HIS ace card for the leadership is?

When will we hear from him, already??

And BTW, I one hundered percent agree with the sentiments expressed in the letter below, that was sent to Preston's website:

"Reconsider a political career

AUTHOR: Rod and Verlie Butler

FROM: North Vancouver, British Columbia

RE: General Letter

DATE: October 23, 2003

Dear Preston; We are sure many of the old Reformers [including us] would want to see you reconsider your decision to leave politics permanently. Raif Mair, the radio talk show host, and Barbara Yaffe, Vancouver Sun columnist, have both recently stated that you would by far, be the best candidate to lead the new Conservative Party and very possibly lead our country as Prime Minister. We beleive your stature as an elder statesman has increased since your leaving office. There is not a present visible candidate who could defeat Paul Martin. Only you. Please reconsider for the sake of this fine country of Canada."

[Craig Read]

Sorry Manning is the past, we need a future. Manning is not telegenic, not quick enough on his feet, and whatever his other many merits, and his has an abundance of intelligence and skill, is not the man for this hour. Let Harper do his job, support him, and help him guide the United Alternative on a policy platform that emphasises 5 or 6 main themes and is, unlike Day for instance, entirely consistent, rationale and professionally presented.

The hope would be to form a powerful opposition, gain legitimacy during the next 4 years and build up a cadre of competent managers and MPs that demonstrate to the public that the UA is mature and coherent and ready for governance.

The UA has no chance of winning the next election, it does have a good opportunity however of forcing Martin to act in the country's [and not in Martin's] best interests.

[Aidan Pryde]

I can only really speak for BC since I don't follow the trends in other parts of the country much, but if the merger doesn't go through the Alliance is going to take a big hit in BC. Their policies have been out of touch with British Columbians and I think their going to pay for that come election time.

Depending on how the NDP does I think the Alliance is going to lose about half of their seats in BC. The Liberals will probably pick up most of the seats the Alliance lose and the NDP should pick up a few as well.

If the merger goes through then the New conservative party should be able to hold their ground or at worst lose a few seats. PC support has never really been that high in BC but the effect of having a united conservative party might be enough to lure some of the more right-wing liberals voters to the party.

[RT_1984]

I think that Harper will win (and I will be ardently supporting him). He'll be able to hold a coalition of fiscal and social conservatives and moderates together the best. He's also a real strategic thinker and will use each side to maximize electoral gain as opposed to his own personal beliefs and that of some MP's. Following his history as a Reform MP, and NCC President, I think he's also the most conservative of the lot and the one capable of distinguishing the party from the Paul Martin Liberals who (whether we agree with) are seen as fiscally conservative, careful and responsible). Therefore we must in addition to electoral reform and fiscal issues find a cautious but distinct way of setting ourselves apart. We will not win votes in impovershed rural ridings by promising tax cuts. Therefore, an emphasis on Harper-careful social conservatism is needed in these areas. One of the reasons why people complain about parties are they think they're all the same. Shouldn't this say something. I also predict that we'll get about 100 seats in the next election, form a stronger opposition with more resources, and support and have a great chance at forming government in 2008. But for confidence, and strategic purposes we should always be striving to win in the present.

[RT_1984]

An interesting CTV poll done today:

If you were to vote today, which party would you pick:

Liberals

28 %

Canadian Alliance

7 %

Progressive Conservatives

6 %

Conservative Party of Canada

48 %

New Democratic Party

10 %

Bloc Quebecois

1 %

[Goldie]

I like Mike ......Wilson for leader of the Conservative Party.

Does anybody have his phone number?

You know Harper is good but he has past comments to haunt him. "Firewall" is one, here is another after the 2000 election.

" Canada appears content to become a second-tier socialistic country, boasting ever more loudly about its economy and social services to mask its second-rate status, led by a second-world strongman appropriately suited for the task"

While some of us may agree with this statement and it may be truthful. Calling Canada second rate can and will hurt this untainted entity.

I would like to see some untainted old blood, perhaps the actual one that undid Trudeau / Cretiens legacy of debt burden and provincial rape.

[Craig Read]

His comment is justified. A nation built on self loathing expressed through adolescent envy of a larger neighbour has serious social-psychomatic problems that need redressing.

Truth, directness, energy, reforms, and eschewing post modern BS is refreshing.

Freedom and honesty always triumph regardless of what the CBC tells you in it biased commentary.

Let's enjoin the conflict with the socialist pyschos who tend to treat every issue and resolution as the purview of government. At least now Harper and the UA can give the population a reasoned alternative.

Harper must be the leader for the UA to have credibility.

[Jerry Potts]

But I'm not as pessimistic about the breakdown of confederation in the near future as Boydfish is.

As much as I think we should be, I think the west is a long way from separating...

Should Harper lead this party in to the next election, contrary to some of you, I have seen no evidence of a groundswell of support outside of the traditional Alliance and Tory camps suggesting that a Harper-led CPC will perform some sort of miracle at the polls. After losing in grand style to the Liberal party in the spring election, I'm sure the CPC 'braintrust' will identify the Alliance stigma the party holds in the east as being their Achilles Heel, and will move quickly to rectify this. As a result, a new Eastern leader and moderate platform focussing on "fiscal conservatism" and not much else will come to the fore as all original Reformers, western conservatives and socons will be shut out of the decision-making mechanisms of the party.

As a result, I would expect a great number of western conservatives to turn their backs on federal politics for good and focus on the provincial level. However, separation will never fly in most of our lifetimes, because while westerners talk a good game when it comes to independence, most do not have the heart or the stomach for it. Instead expect initiaives such as the Alberta Agenda to continue to come to the forefront.

If McKay runs and wins, then who knows. Will his deal with Orchard prove suffiicient to destroy his credibility out East? You've gotta know the Lib's, ND's, the Orchard-Clark gang and our liberal media will try, and based on their efforts in the past, will probably succeed.

[Morgan]

Craig,

I agree with you that Harper is the best person for the job of leader.

Goldie,

Michael Wilson is too old - same vintage as Paul Martin actually - but Wilson is smart enough to know it, unlike re-tread geezer tire, Paul Martin.

I suspect that Michael Wilson would support Stephen Harper anyways. They both have similar academic backgrounds, that emphasizes fiscal prudence.

Here's a recent article from the Calgary Sun that serves to refresh everyone's memory about Michael Wilson's accomplishments:

Wilson & Harper deserve credit for fiscal management &Clarity Act, NOT Chretien Nov.16/03 Calgary Sun.

Over and over again, people keep saying, Jean Chretien is the prime minister who put an end to deficits. They also credit him with making the separation of Quebec from Canada more difficult as a result of the Clarity Act.

Indeed, it's safe to say that it is undoubtedly the work of former prime minister Brian Mulroney and his finance minister Michael Wilson who deserve the credit for Canada's seven consecutive balanced budgets.

In 1984, the Mulroney government inherited a terrible mess. Even Jean Chretien admitted, following 15 years in office: "We left the cupboard bare."

Essentially, the Tories took a bag of rusted-out bolts and spare parts from Pierre Trudeau, and after years of toil managed to turn the mess into a sleek, well-oiled machine. Chretien and company inherited the well-oiled machine and managed to keep it running at a steady pace.

In 1984, the Tories inherited a deficit of $38.5 billion, which was nearly 9% of GDP -- the largest in the history of Canada. The federal debt had increased by 1,100% under the Trudeau administration. Remember the interest rates? They had peaked at 22.75%. Program spending had skyrocketed to $1.23 for every dollar collected in taxes.

When the Tories left office almost nine years later, the federal government was in an operating surplus and the deficit as a percentage of GDP had been reduced by one-third, despite the deep recession of 1990-91. "The rate of growth in program spending was slashed by 70%, reducing it to 97 cents for every dollar of revenues," boasted Mulroney. "The prime rate was at 6%, the lowest in 20 years. The inflation rate was 1.5%, the lowest in 30 years, and the United Nations had just reported that, in terms of quality of life, Canada was the number one country in the world," said Mulroney.

Fact is, if Chretien and Martin had inherited the kind of legacy left to Michael Wilson, I doubt very much they would have been able to turn the ship of state around. The foundation for Chretien's success was laid down by Mulroney and Co.

As for the Clarity Act, well, Chretien never gets too specific about his role in that either. Guess why? It wasn't his idea. It was a political enemy's idea. The Clarity Act has taken the wind out of the sails of Quebec separatists. But don't thank Chretien.

Stephen Harper, leader of the Canadian Alliance, was a key drafter of the Reform Party's two-pronged approach to national unity following the narrow victory in Quebec's 1995 referendum.

On the impact of his work in this area, Toronto Star columnist Chantal Hebert [a LPOC sychophant]wrote: "If one were to trace the federal clarity law on Quebec secession back to its true origins, the exercise would lead straight to Stephen Harper. In the matter of his government's main initiative on the unity front, Prime Minister Jean Chretien is merely a foster parent to Harper's love child."

Goldie, if you still want to contact Wilson, you could probably get a hold of his email address through one of the following orgs. that Wilson is associated with:

a)U of Toronto, Trinity College

Alumni Affairs Office email: [email protected]

Michael Wilson named Chancellor of Trinity College May/03.

Michael Wilson is President and CEO of UBS Global Asset Management in Canada

Michael Wilson's business to contact