Quebec Election: 26 March 2007

[Bakunin]

PQ: 49

PLQ: 43

ADQ: 33

imagine how close it is... a government by 6 seats... at this point you can't lose a candidate !

[August1991]

imagine how close it is... a government by 6 seats... at this point you can't lose a candidate !

The numbers plus or minus don't really matter. It takes 63 seats to have a majority.

If this is the result, Dumont will have to decide who will be Prime Minister.

[Bakunin]

I don't think so, whoever has the most seat win. Just like for the federal, the npd and the bloc did not decide who became prime minister.

Especially with dumont that has to deal with soft nationalist and federalist in his party, a coalition is not only a risk to start an intern war but it does not help his party wich would prefer another election in 1 year.

Anyway, those seat repartition are imo out of date. Im pretty sure crop or leger marketing will make a national poll that will cover evry county since now its the only way to understand who can win the election, we don'T know maybe the adq could have the most seats with 30%...

[Canadian Blue]

I think that we could possibly see an ADQ government, especially considering their momentum. Boisclair is an incompetent leader at best, so far from my own view he hasn't gotten anything right in this whole campaign.

This election is up in the air. It's gonna be an interesting one, that's for sure.

[Bakunin]

Mario Dumont just confirmed he his opposed to coalition, he prefer the federal way.

[August1991]

I don't think so, whoever has the most seat win. Just like for the federal, the npd and the bloc did not decide who became prime minister.

Not quite. The Lieutenant-Governor (yes, the Chretien-appointee spendthrift in a wheelchair) will have to choose the leader with the most seats. Then, that person will check their support in the National Assembly. If the leader doesn't have support, the L-G will go to the next leader.

In practice, Dumont will have to decide who to support: Boisclair or Charest.

-----

More from the campaign.

First, les yeux bridés:

May Chiu, a prominent Péquiste who was the first Chinese-Canadian candidate to run for the Bloc Québécois, has slammed PQ Leader André Boisclair for using a French expression that means "slanting eyes" to describe Asian students.

Chiu — who ran unsuccessfully for the Bloc in the 2006 federal election and is now working on PQ candidate Zhao Xin Wu's campaign in Montreal — warned that Boisclair's refusal to apologize for the comment would jeopardize the inroads that his party has made with Quebec's Asian population.

"With one remark in two seconds, I think he has done a lot of damage with the work and the bridges that these candidates have built with the community," Chiu told the CBC on Thursday night.

CBC

I'm with Boisclair on this one. Les yeux bridés is a description like blonde hair or brown eyes.

Unfortunately, politically correct terminology doesn't translate (which is an indication that political correctness is an arbitrary fad). Will it become politically incorrect to say that someone has blue eyes?

[incidentally, this comment seems to have been largely an anglo subject of debate.]

The Parti Québécois would want to hold a referendum on sovereignty even if it forms only a minority government, leader André Boisclair said Friday.

Squeezed in a three-way race that has stoked speculation about a minority government on March 26, Mr. Boisclair was asked whether his party would have the legitimacy to stage a referendum if it's elected with a plurality of votes, but not a majority.

“Of course, of course, of course,” he said to reporters while visiting a high-school on the remote Gaspé peninsula.

G & M

I heard this quote in French on the radio too. Boisclair had no choice in saying what he said: "Bien sûr, bien sûr, bien sûr." How could the leader of the PQ not say he'll hold a referendum?

At the same time, the idea is ridiculous.

Like in 1970, with this election, Quebec politics is entering un terrain inconnu.

[August1991]

Referendum even if the PQ forms a minority government?

Dumont is right here. The two traditonal parties are deconnected from reality.

André Boisclair démontre « à quel point il vit dans son monde et dans ses rêves » en prétendant qu’il pourra tenir un référendum même s’il dirige un gouvernement minoritaire, affirme Mario Dumont.

« La question ne se pose pas, a dit le chef de l’ADQ, hier. C’est une erreur de faits. La Loi sur les consultations populaires ne le lui permet pas. Il y a vraiment un problème de vérification des faits et de compétence par rapport à un enjeu absolument fondamental. »

L’article 3 de ladite loi stipule qu’autant la tenue du référendum que la question qui serait posée devront être approuvées par l’Assemblée nationale. Difficile à imaginer avec une hypothétique majorité de députés libéraux et adéquistes.

« Les gens qui ont trouvé que Jean Charest était un premier ministre généralement déconnecté de la réalité au cours des quatre dernières années, ils regardent André Boisclair et ils ne doivent pas être plus rassurés de son comportement », attaque M. Dumont.

La Presse

In Montreal, people are wrong to fear this as a rightward shift and ROC (Ontario Liberals) are wrong to view this as a defeat of separatism.

The same Canada will exist, and the same loud Quebec will exist, but Stephen Harper's election has changed Canada.

English Canada has a WASP spokesman and Quebec (French Canada) is willing to give him a chance.

[August1991]

I think it is an intelligent strategy from the pq/bloc, while the plq has no strategy and is unorganized, the pq try to unite the progressive who are afraid of the conservative movement, Evry tendency has his opposite tendency, they will polarize the vote.

I agree that the Charest campaign is going nowhere and now is a bad third among francophone voters.

OTOH, is Boisclair the most credible person to take a such sharp left turn?

" Tous les souverainistes, tous les progressistes, tous les féministes, tous les environnementalistes, tous les altermondialistes à l'ouvrage pour le 26 mars! " a lancé hier André Boisclair.

Andre Boisclair, March 2007

Le chef du PQ, André Boisclair, s'est mis tous les syndicats à dos par cette déclaration à TVA il y a deux semaines. «Il y a peut-être de la nostalgie de cette époque où les leaders syndicaux étaient copains copains, passaient les soirées autour d'un repas arrosé. Ce n'est pas le type de leadership que j'exerce», dit-il.

Andre Boisclair, January 2007

This virage smells of opportunism and desperation.

There is also the aftermath of the election, the ADQ and the conservative movement is becoming stronger and stronger and i beleive it could change dramatically the political map in quebec. We never know maybe it could last an entire century, we could have sereval minority government and more important it would dramatically change the conservative party in canada giving them more articulate politician a solid base with stronghold in the quebec region. And i don't know if you realized but the left vs right debate, the PLQ and PLC are right in the middle, with the right chief, they can either dominate their two opposant with the bad one they can be squeezed in between, if we look at the Federal intention vote in quebec, the PLC have been 3rd since harper have been elected, it could become the same on the provincial scene.

What is true is that the PQ option of holding a referendum doesn't work. I also think the PQ's connection to the Left was a mistake for defending Quebec's interests.

[Bakunin]

Well, the campain is alot about opportunism, at this point charest don't know what to do to get his vote back, the adq want real defusion now after being for the fusion in the past. Boisclair wich is right wing 3rd way style want to reunite the left wing that went over to the green party and qs. What we are not talking much is that the 28 march, it could be the end of the career of jean charest or boisclair or less likly dumont. This race is not over, tomorow is the budget what will it look like, i wonder what will happend, what if there is federal election do you think people will be happy about it ?

[Kapitän Rotbart]

Anyone voting in the next Québec provincial elections (and anyone else interested in the topic) should follow this link (http://tetesaclaques.tv/video.php?vid=62).

Good laughs. Very convincing independant rep.

[MBD]

Where can i find a Poll from today? everyone is still busy with saturdays Poll,

[Rue]

What we have seen so far is that Quebecers do not like either the Liberals or Parti Quebecois. They are clearly turned off by both leaders. Mario Dumont has made a career of exploiting the fact that Quebecers like to complain and have it both ways and want to be seperatists and federalists at the same time and get the best of both-suck the federal system for all its worth while at the same time demanding independence.

The Dumont brand of nationalism is what Quebec has always been about basically wanting complete independence from Canada as long as they can continue to receive every possible federal hand-out and benefit possible. So they call that nationalism. Its just old recycled Marcel Duplessis Union National verbage.

Mario Dumont is simply a rehash of Dupplessis. He is very much a Quebec politician-no training in law or economics and never worked an honest job in his life.

However he comes from a small town, can't speak English, and has no clue about any culture other then his own, so that goes down well with many Quebecers who can identify with his lack of education, lack of cultural sophistication, inability to converse in English, and basic small town simplicity.

Quebecers at the provincial level have always hated voting for bilingual Francophone Quebecers-they see it as a sell out and so Charest is seen as a federal whore. His cozing up to Harper is seen as a sell out by many although of course no Quebecer would ever complain of the benefits Charest has been able to obtain.

Now as for this PQ leader he is a joke. He is assoft as a politician gets. He comes across as an inexperienced Mama's boy. Charest may look like a fat old woman, but this Boisclair is a woman. I do not say that to put down gays. I say that in the sense that his feminine approach to politics does not resonate in a blue collar province that likes their politicians a bit on the vulgar and messy side. Prissy politicians like Boo Boo Bourassa were barely tolerated. Quebecers like someone who looks like he would know how to pave a road or drive a truck. Boisclair and Charest are just a bit too manicured and hair puffed for the average Quebecer.

I personally think all 3 are full of crappola but then I left the province years ago because I did not want ot be treated as a second class citizen in my own province.

[August1991]

Mario Dumont is simply a rehash of Dupplessis. He is very much a Quebec politician-no training in law or economics and never worked an honest job in his life.

However he comes from a small town, can't speak English, and has no clue about any culture other then his own, so that goes down well with many Quebecers who can identify with his lack of education, lack of cultural sophistication, inability to converse in English, and basic small town simplicity.

Mario Dumont graduated from Concordia University in economics. Concordia, as you may know, is one of three English-speaking universities in Quebec.

If you get to compare Mario Dumont to Maurice Duplessis then I get to compare Stephen Harper to Ralph Klein.

I personally think all 3 are full of crappola but then I left the province years ago because I did not want ot be treated as a second class citizen in my own province.

It's good to see that you bring an objective viewpoint to the discussion.

Mario Dumont's Action's démocratique du Québec party may be on the verge of sweeping the Quebec City region according to a new poll published today which shows the Liberals slipping badly there.

The survey suggests it is increasingly likely that the ADQ could win enough seats there to further its chances of creating a minority government situation after Monday's provincial election.

...

The survey by polling firm Crop shows the ADQ with 40 per cent support among voters in the Quebec City region, well ahead of the Parti Québécois at 26 per cent and the Liberals at 24 per cent.

The ADQ has surged into the lead in the Quebec City area with a 10-point increase in support compared to a similar poll at the end of February. The vast majority of the increase can be attributed to a loss in popularity for Premier Jean Charest's governing Liberals. PQ support remained at the same level in the region since the election was called Feb. 21.

The poll, for the dailies Le Soleil and La Presse, was conducted in 12 Quebec City area ridings where the Liberals now hold 9 seats, the PQ 1 and the ADQ 2. The ADQ now threatens to win at least 10 out of the 12 seats according to the poll.

G & M

This makes a Liberal or PQ government almost a certainty.

It is also very good news for Harper.

[August1991]

This article in Le Nouvelliste gives a good resume of the ADQ's chances for seats:

Dans Laurentides-Lanaudière, l'ADQ croit que ses chances sont bonnes dans L'Assomption, Mirabel et Berthier, une circonscription que Marie Grégoire avait brièvement représentée en 2002-2003.

En Estrie, où l'ADQ n'a jamais fait merveille, on tient désormais pour acquis que la libérale Shefford tombera dans l'équipe adéquiste.

Sur la rive-sud de Québec et Chaudière-Appalaches, l'ADQ prévoit faire des ravages dans plusieurs circonscriptions, Montmagny-L'Islet, Bellechasse, Lévis, Beauce-Sud, et conserver Beauce-Nord, Lotbinière et Chutes-de-la-Chaudière. Et la formation n'a pas encore renoncé à Frontenac.

En Montérégie, on a fixé deux cibles accueillantes: la libérale Huntingdon et la péquiste Saint-Hyacinthe.

On croit aussi que les augures sont bonnes dans Arthabaska, une circonscription des Bois-Francs réputée baromètre.

Dans le Bas-Saint-Laurent, à part bien sûr la forteresse du chef, Rivière-du-Loup qu'on croit maintenir solidement en place, le parti lorgne maintenant du côté de la voisine, Kamouraska-Témiscouata, défendue par le ministre du Développement durable, Claude Béchard. Matane serait aussi tentée par le virage adéquiste.

À Québec, plusieurs coups de sonde annoncent un possible balayage adéquiste. Seules Taschereau, Louis-Hébert et Jean-Talon, forteresse libérale où le ministre de la Santé cherche à se faire élire, donneraient encore un peu de fil à retordre, dit-on.

That puts the ADQ at around 25 seats out of the 125 in the National Assembly.

Dumont has said that he will support the party which wins the most seats. At the moment, that could be either the Liberals or the PQ but it's likely that the Liberals will win the most votes. This may provide Dumont with an excuse to support the Liberals even if they win fewer seats.

On either strategic or ideologic grounds, it's an interesting question who Dumont would prefer to support. In some ways, Dumont might find it better to support a PQ government.

[Bakunin]

Im from shefford and still hesitating on what ill do, i may vote adq to teach a lesson to the liberals and make sure the adq win this county, anyway evry interesting liberal candidate have been excluded from the charest cabinet, other than that ive never loved them. On the other hand, im still a bit affraid of the adq innexperimented team, they don't have the team it takes to make the change they want to do. I don't necessarly think they need a good team to form a good government but Mario Dumont frustrate me because he want to change so many thing but when it comes to reality, when the journalist ask him how he will do it, it looks like he doesn't have a clue... He has never been minister, im not sure but i think none of his candidate has ever been minister or some kind of experience with politics. If only he could tell us how he would change thing instead of what he would change...

Its a little bit like the habs fan, they all want to tell bob gainey what change needs to be done, but in reality, none of their idea pass the reality test...

[August1991]

On the other hand, im still a bit affraid of the adq innexperimented team, they don't have the team it takes to make the change they want to do. I don't necessarly think they need a good team to form a good government but Mario Dumont frustrate me because he want to change so many thing but when it comes to reality, when the journalist ask him how he will do it, it looks like he doesn't have a clue...

True but Dumont won't be PM after the 26.

This is a good analysis and explains why it is almost a certainty that Charest will be PM with a minority Liberal government regardless of the election results:

William Christian, a professor of political science at the University of Guelph, said Mr. Charest could form a minority government even if the Liberals win fewer seats than the PQ, as long as he could count on ADQ support in the legislature.

"Mr. Charest is Premier. The basic rule is that he remains Premier until he resigns, is dismissed or dies," Mr. Christian said.

There is a precedent in Ottawa for such a scenario. In 1925, William Lyon Mackenzie King won fewer seats than the Conservatives but managed to govern for nearly seven months with the support of the Progressive Party before resigning. "The rule is not the largest number of seats. The rule is really the leader of the party most likely to be able to command a stable majority in the legislature," Mr. Christian said.

Ontario, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Manitoba have all elected minority governments over the past 35 years. And Quebecers have watched minority governments at work in Ottawa since 2004.

"I think [a minority government] could be a good thing because when public opinion is divided or is changing, it’s good to have an Assembly that corresponds to public opinion," Mr. Guay said. "Last time, the ADQ got 18% of the vote but only a handful of seats."

Guy Laforest was president of the ADQ and a candidate in the 2003 election. He remains a party member but has now returned to teaching political science at Université Laval.

He said in an interview yesterday that the affinity between the Liberals and ADQ means the least likely scenario would be a PQ minority government. In the 1995 referendum, Mr. Dumont campaigned in favour of independence, but the ADQ now advocates "affirmation without separation," which is much closer to the Liberals than the PQ. The ADQ also fervently opposes the PQ’s “doctrinaire statism,” Mr. Laforest said.

Complicating matters, however, is the deep personal animosity between the Liberals and ADQ. The ADQ was born after Jean Allaire and Mr. Dumont led a group of dissidents out of the Liberal party in 1992 to protest what they considered overly soft constitutional demands.

"This occurrence was very, very acrimonious, and on both sides it is remembered until this day," Mr. Laforest said. "In the interests of Quebec after March 26, both sides have to move beyond that."

National Post

[Bakunin]

I don't beleive he would do that. If he intervene, im pretty sure he will have trouble with his supporters and thats why he said he wouldn't.

But lets wait 4 more day and we will know.

[Bakunin]

Oh well, i don't know if we can count the liberal dead but out of a 20 circoncription polls, the PLQ lose almost all of what they have to the ADQ and the PQ keep the one they have.

[Bakunin]

Some things are hard to understand... the ADQ lost some support in the montreal area

Crop

34 % PLQ

28 % PQ

25 % ADQ

Leger marketing

35 % PLQ

29% PQ

26% ADQ

CTV

31 % PQ

30 % PLQ

28 % ADQ

But the thing is the PLQ has only 26% of the francophone vote is vote is such concentrated that they won some county with 80-90% of the vote in montreal and you will ask me so what ? well it mean outside montreal they are 3rd in the vote, local polls show the ADQ would sweep most of liberals county in the quebec region, the PQ would sweep most of the rest wich make it almost impossible for them to have a majority government and they aren't even sure they will win a minority government. Its really a county by county war and often it depend on the division of the vote since its a 3way race.

[August1991]

Its really a county by county war and often it depend on the division of the vote since its a 3way race.

Riding by riding. You might as well flip a coin in some cases. The ADQ can draw votes from past Liberal or PQ voters.

The above polls make it pretty clear that once the Liberal anglo advantage is taken out, the general bias to rural ridings and the usual Liberal election day bump, the PQ and Liberals are almost equal.

Radio Canada is predicting a PQ minority but they might as well predict my winnings tonight at the casino.

One local race to look at is Couillard in Jean-Talon. I read somewhere that he might not win since the ADQ has the chance of 12 seat sweep in the Quebec City region.

Incidentally, Dumont has said that he will support whichever party wins the most seats. Quebecers have not had experience with a minority government (except in Ottawa) so we'll see how this plays out.

A PQ minority government will be a strange beast.

Whatever happens, the big winner is going to be Stephen Harper. The BQ and PQ will not be the same in five years.

[August1991]

The following video almost deserves it's own thread.

Radio-Canada didn't show it but it's going around the Quebec blogosphere.

A journalist asked Andre Boisclair why he was criticizing a (dropped) ADQ candidate for his past anti-semitism when Boisclair himself has certain things in his past. Boisclair then asks the journalist what he means and the journalist refers to his use of cocaine.

Boisclair then loses it, points his finger at the journalist and starts saying that he "never lacked in his respect for democracy, or in his duties as a member of the National Assemby".

It's the style as much as the substance that is evident.

[August1991]

Interesting detail.

The ballot in the Quebec election identifies the ADQ candidate as "Action démocratique du Québec/Équipe Mario Dumont".

The ADQ is indeed a one-man show.

[gc1765]

Wow, according to CBC, the ADQ is leading. I know it's been said before, but this looks like a close one...

[jdobbin]

Wow, according to CBC, the ADQ is leading. I know it's been said before, but this looks like a close one...

It is quite a quick change. The Liberals were in the lead just a few minutes earlier.

Looks like the PQ is at the back of the pack.

[Canadian Blue]

Latest results:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The governing Liberal party has jumped out to an early lead in the Quebec provincial election, but the second-place party is the Action democratique du Quebec.

Early results about 40 minutes after the polls closed had the Liberals leading in 47 ridings, with the right-wing Action democratique du Quebec leading in 44 and the sovereigntist Parti Quebecois leading in 31. Quebec Solidaire, a left-wing sovereigntist party, is leading in one seat.

This could possible be a third place finish for the PQ, and perhaps the QS could gain a seat.