Liberals well positioned for next election

[gerryhatrick]

I generally have a hard time getting a good first impression from someone that struggles with my language.

So he has an accent. He speaks just fine. My french sucks, but I understand him perfectly well in English.

Me too.

It's just another partisan hack attack.

[geoffrey]

I generally have a hard time getting a good first impression from someone that struggles with my language.

So he has an accent. He speaks just fine. My french sucks, but I understand him perfectly well in English.

I prefer to hear him in French. His English is understandable, but still not quite past a grade 5 level. He's quite a passionate speaker in French, in English, ugh, ugly.

He's acceptable reading from a script or when he's in charge of the subject at hand. In other words, when he's practiced. Ask him a confusing question or something designed to trip him up with his poor grasp of English and he's going to fall on his face. He's very cautious answering questions in English. That's not acceptable.

The Quebec Liberals destroyed Kennedy's ability to win on his French skills. August claims that Dion speaks better English than Kennedy does French... I only slightly agree. Both seriously lack the ability to make an appealing speech or discuss something in the other language.

I'm not impressed with his English and I can't wait to see the mistakes he makes in the HoC when under pressure. Maybe we'll have another classic "a proof is a proof" really soon!

[mikedavid00]

I personally am a card carrying NDPer. I am also a major in Biolgy and math with several stats courses under my belt this poll is flawed.

I've taken stats courses too. So what. I'm sure Strategic Council has people twice as smart at it than you and me put together. I've pointed out your errors once and don't wish to argue the poll with you any longer.

Well not really.. the poll isn't flawed. They did show the huge margin of error and extremely small sample size.

CTV just gave it a wild spin which they shouldn't be doing if they want to be respected.

The poll said that 27% of poeple never heard or dion or knew this was going on. I would put that number much, much higher from people I know and what i've seen last night at the christmas party.

The common joe is going to see another french politician who can't speak english and is obsessed with the environment which is far, far away from the average Canadians problems.

[gerryhatrick]

The common joe is going to see another french politician who can't speak english and is obsessed with the environment which is far, far away from the average Canadians problems.

With this one statement you've shown yourself to be out of touch with our current political climate.

And you've demonstrated a willingness to mock someone for having an accent. That is pure partisan attack hackery.

[gc1765]

Well not really.. the poll isn't flawed. They did show the huge margin of error and extremely small sample size.

CTV just gave it a wild spin which they shouldn't be doing if they want to be respected.

The poll said that 27% of poeple never heard or dion or knew this was going on. I would put that number much, much higher from people I know and what i've seen last night at the christmas party.

The common joe is going to see another french politician who can't speak english and is obsessed with the environment which is far, far away from the average Canadians problems.

If you're not involved in politics enough to know who Dion is you're probably not going to vote.

[gerryhatrick]

This poll is NOT within the margin of error.

Liberals have a commanding lead over the CPC. If this is just a convention bump or not remains to be seen.

[geoffrey]

This poll is NOT within the margin of error.

Liberals have a commanding lead over the CPC. If this is just a convention bump or not remains to be seen.

Yes it is.

CPC + 3.1 = 34.1

LPC - 3.1 = 33.9

Wow... the CPC is winning!

I don't disagree with the calculation of the margin of error, I disagree with the cross-section of the voting public this measures.

[gc1765]

Yes it is.

CPC + 3.1 = 34.1

LPC - 3.1 = 33.9

Wow... the CPC is winning!

I don't disagree with the calculation of the margin of error, I disagree with the cross-section of the voting public this measures.

Odds of the Liberals being at 33.9% or lower: 1 in 20

Odds of the CPC being at 34.1% or higher: 1 in 20

Odds of the Liberals being at 33.9% or lower AND the CPC being at 34.1% or higher: 1 in 400

In other words, there is a 1 in 400 chance that the CPC is beating the Liberals.

Edit: I guess technically I should have used the word "probability" instead of odds.

[August1991]

I personally am a card carrying NDPer. I am also a major in Biolgy and math with several stats courses under my belt this poll is flawed. 3.1% isn;t the number that matters the number that matters here is those in Quebec and Ontario those are the only provinces to assume to have a change in their numbers, the Margin of error of 3.1% is over repersented because it is assumed there would be no change in the rest of Canada. Your looking at a real margin of error of 5-6% which is what the libs lead the CPC by. I am telling it is foolish to this seriously.

Biology? University stats? CLT?

Poll, schmoll. My random sample of people in Quebec tonight confirms this result. The pequistes are absolutely astonished that Dion won. Unbelievable - but there's a quiet pride.

Now, will that turn into seats?

"Stephane Dion is a little like (former Liberal prime minister) Jean Chretien. The media and elites always underestimated Chretien, but he identified with people on Main Street," Fife said.

Who is Fife and is that a joke? Dion is no Chretien, nor does Dion identify with "people on Main Street".

Dion is obviously a Quebecois, he speaks good French but he's not a snob. He's an irritating CEGEP humanities prof, or a young curé. In English, he's earnest.

Odds of the Liberals being at 33.9% or lower: 1 in 20

Odds of the CPC being at 34.1% or higher: 1 in 20

IOW, the odds are that we'll have a minority government.

[geoffrey]

IOW, the odds are that we'll have a minority government.

You'll be hard pressed to find someone that disagrees.

[kimmy]

Yeah, percentage polls never tell the story in a system like ours anyway. In '93 Reform had 18.5%, The PCs 16% and the BQ had 13.5. Seats were Reform 52, PC 2 and BQ 54. At best they're a rough gauge of voter trend.

This is the most important point. The first-past-the-poll electoral system, combined with very regionally different party support breakdowns makes a generalized poll like this almost meaningless. To determine what a poll might mean in terms of an election, you have to have regional breakdowns (and in the case of Quebec, almost riding-by-riding breakdowns.)

I call BS, how can you give a guy a 55% approval rating when he's only been on the job for what 12 hours. Wait a few weeks to see what else happen's. One poll showed Harper would get 38% compared to Dion's 25%.

You underestimate the power of first impressions. Dion has obviously made a good one, and they always linger.

What was Paul Martin's approval rating when he was selected Liberal leader? ...and what was it a few months later? ...what was it on Decision Night 2005? ...on Decision Night 2006?

Oh yeah, first impressions count for a lot.

Recall that last winter, at the time when the election was called the polls showed the Liberals in majority territory, and within a few weeks the polls showed the Conservatives nearing majority status. With that in mind, I think that a statistically narrow lead at this point in time isn't much to celebrate. Party conventions always result in a modest bump in the polls, and that's what this is... a modest bump.

The common joe is going to see another french politician who can't speak english and is obsessed with the environment which is far, far away from the average Canadians problems.

With this one statement you've shown yourself to be out of touch with our current political climate.

I disagree. In my home, at least, Dion's victory was greeted with derisive snorts and rolling of eyes.

*Another* Quebec Prime Minister? During my lifetime, we've had a couple months of Kim Campbell, a couple of months of Jim Turner, and almost a year of Stephen Harper. Aside from that, it's been 22 years of Quebec politicians.

Dion hasn't won yet, but it's a strong possibility. It might help the Liberals rebuild their base in Montreal (or maybe not...) and it probably won't hurt their fortunes in Ontario, but it'll do little to build bridges with the rest of the country. I doubt federal Liberals in BC are very excited about Dion. Federal Liberals on the Prairies wouldn't be excited about Dion either, except that there aren't any federal Liberals left on the prairies.

-k

[Saturn]

Absolutely. 2/3 of the poll did come from Ontario/Quebec. They only have a smidge over 50% of the population. The distribution of the respondants is ugly. Ontario is grossly over-represented.

Bullshit! Ontario and Quebec have 58% of the seats and 62% of the respondents in the survey. That's not grossly over-represented any way you look at it. Do you conservatives know anything besides making rediculous accusations and splitting hairs when things don't look good for you? Sheesh!

[geoffrey]

Just 4% different... oh... that's greater than the margin of error.

Oh well. Anyways it doesn't matter what the hair splitting comes down to. The Liberals just had a weekend of press. They even held off the announcement of their leader an extra 45 minutes to make the exact 6:00 newstime to increase their profile (can you believe how brutal that was for Iggy?).

I'd expect at least a few percentage point increase there, but it's only temporary. Now it needs to be earned.

[Saturn]

Just 4% different... oh... that's greater than the margin of error.

Oh well. Anyways it doesn't matter what the hair splitting comes down to. The Liberals just had a weekend of press. They even held off the announcement of their leader an extra 45 minutes to make the exact 6:00 newstime to increase their profile (can you believe how brutal that was for Iggy?).

I'd expect at least a few percentage point increase there, but it's only temporary. Now it needs to be earned.

Or Harper can make it easy for them, which he seems to be working really hard on.

[normanchateau]

2005 Population of Quebec= 7,598,100

2005 Population of Ontario=12,541,400

2005 Population of Canada=32,270,500

% of Population of Canada living in Ontario and Quebec=62.4%

It appears that percentage-wise, the poll was reasonably proportionate of the actual population of Quebec and Ontario.

Poor Harper is in a difficult situation. I just spoke to two Montreal friends who campaigned for Harper and the Conservatives during the last federal election. Both said that Dion was the only leadership candidate that would make them switch their vote from Conservative to Liberal. Both know Dion and view him as they view Harper, a man of integrity. But they view Dion as the likely beneficiary of the federalist vote in Quebec for standing up to the separatists who both despise and respect him. I'm sure the BQ and CPC will do their best to link Dion to the sponsorship scandal but it won't work this time. Unlike the stumbling Paul Martin who took the fall, Dion will fight back.

Personally I hope Harper brings up the sponsorship scandal again. It worked for him last time so I'm sure he and his supporters will now attempt to link it to Dion. And Dion will deal with it as forcefully as he dealt with the separatists with his Clarity Bill.

[abcon99]

This is a crap poll but who cares. The right always gets lower percentages in polls between elections. This has been the case for decades. Being a Conservative, even if the leftist polling firms from the east did call me, which they don't, I would tell them to go screw themselves. The only poll that counts is the one on election day that gives out seats in the House of Commons. I already talked about this in the topic will Dion ever be Prime Minister, so if you want my complete view on this poll and Dion and the leadership convention being played up, go there and read and respond please.

[normanchateau]

Being a Conservative, even if the leftist polling firms from the east did call me, which they don't, I would tell them to go screw themselves.

What if a polling firm commissioned by the Conservatives called?

[abcon99]

Well norm, I would tell them to screw off too, cause it don't matter. Conservatives have strong beliefs, and don't need polling data to hold there hand like liberals.

[normanchateau]

Well norm, I would tell them to screw off too, cause it don't matter. Conservatives have strong beliefs, and don't need polling data to hold there hand like liberals.

So do you think Harper will call an election if the polling data show he'll lose?

[abcon99]

finally a question worthy of answering!!!!!!!!

The government has lasted long enough, so he will most likely pick a time in the near future to get the opposition to defeat him. So to answer your question, he won't be calling one at all, he will wait to be defeated and then go to an election. And since he doesn't care about polls, it is when he belives the conditions, ie. what is going on at the time., are right, not what some poll data shows. He may look at polls, but as I said they are not the end all and be all to conservatives, especially on core beliefs. So you missed my main point, but opened up a new area.

[normanchateau]

finally a question worthy of answering!!!!!!!!

he will most likely pick a time in the near future to get the opposition to defeat him. So to answer your question, he won't be calling one at all, he will wait to be defeated and then go to an election.

Do you not see the inconsistency in saying "he will most likely pick a time" and "he will wait to be defeated"?

[abcon99]

no, he will pick a time to begin introducing things his base wants but the people in the commons other than conservatives will vote against. he will then wait for them pick one. if they don't defeat him he gets the things he wants, if they do, he goes to election and attacks them for stopping something good.

[Canadian Blue]

You underestimate the power of first impressions. Dion has obviously made a good one, and they always linger.

And I believe the poll you refer to is one taken before the leader was picked, no? Obviously that would be expected.

People had pretty good first impression's of Paul Martin too, what ended up happening to the massive 200+ seat majority he would have no problem getting.

The poll's bush anyways, it's kind of like trying to judge your new boss after he's only been on the job for the past twelve hours and you haven't even see him work.

[abcon99]

Polls mean nothing to me, and what journalist have to say is just dirty leftist eatern media biased garbage.

90% of the media are liberal, and the other ten are barely conservatives. It would make my day to spit in the faces of the majority of the press gallery.

[normanchateau]

New poll has Liberals ahead

Four-point lead over Tories

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/200.../06/2654110.htm