Canadian Political Polls

[Riverwind]

Btw, what was Flaherty referring too?

From the majestic peaks of the Rocky Mountains to the rugged shores of Newfoundland and Labrador, many of the most beautiful places on earth are in Canada.

It was a case of bad geography but it was symbolic of the CPC attitude towards BC.

[BC_chick]

Btw, what was Flaherty referring too?

From the majestic peaks of the Rocky Mountains to the rugged shores of Newfoundland and Labrador, many of the most beautiful places on earth are in Canada.

It was a case of bad geography but it was symbolic of the CPC attitude towards BC.

Freudian slip?

[Michael Bluth]

Btw, what was Flaherty referring too?

From the majestic peaks of the Rocky Mountains to the rugged shores of Newfoundland and Labrador, many of the most beautiful places on earth are in Canada.

It was a case of bad geography but it was symbolic of the CPC attitude towards BC.

Isn't the western side of the Canadian Rockies in BC?

[BubberMiley]

Other than Quebec I can't think of any other province which is NOT feeling ignored by the Harper government.

Manitoba is happy with increased transfer payments, and he showed up on Friday to announce the feds would run the Canadian Museum of Human Rights in Winnipeg, the only national museum outside of Ottawa.

[geoffrey]

Isn't the western side of the Canadian Rockies in BC?

It ends at like Golden (if that?), different ranges West of there.

[Riverwind]

Isn't the western side of the Canadian Rockies in BC?

The Rockies are on the BC-Alberta border (see map). The mountains that fill up most of the province belong to different mountain ranges.

[geoffrey]

Now wait, if BC is out, then I don't have the amazing mountain biking and climbing.

Ok, omitting West of the Rockies is essientially treason! I call for the Minister's resignation!

[Vancouver King]

New Decima poll released today - Conservatives 30% and Liberals 29%, a statistical dead heat.

The war in Afghanistan continues to drag down Harper's govt. There is no sense whining that the Liberals got us into this dust up, it is the public perception that Afghanistan is Stephen Harper's war.

Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals.

As I said when SES recently released their numbers, the Conservatives are in trouble.

[Michael Bluth]

New Decima poll released today - Conservatives 30% and Liberals 29%, a statistical dead heat.

The war in Afghanistan continues to drag down Harper's govt. There is no sense whining that the Liberals got us into this dust up, it is the public perception that Afghanistan is Stephen Harper's war.

Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals.

As I said when SES recently released their numbers, the Conservatives are in trouble.

Do explain what a statistical dead heat is?

A link to the poll?

Why would that "huge 30%" break Liberal now when they didn't in 2006?

[jdobbin]

New Decima poll released today - Conservatives 30% and Liberals 29%, a statistical dead heat.

The war in Afghanistan continues to drag down Harper's govt. There is no sense whining that the Liberals got us into this dust up, it is the public perception that Afghanistan is Stephen Harper's war.

Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals.

As I said when SES recently released their numbers, the Conservatives are in trouble.

I have the link here for the Decima poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070425/...rals_loose_lips

The latest Decima poll contains good news and bad news for the Grits. The survey suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives dropped to 30 per cent nationally - a virtual tie with the Liberals.

But the Grits remained stalled at 29 per cent nationally and support in the party's remaining bastion, Toronto, has eroded significantly since Dion was elected leader Dec. 2.

At the time of Dion's ascension to the Liberal throne, Decima found the Grits held a massive lead over all other parties in the Toronto area - a four-week average of 60 per cent compared to 17 per cent for the Tories and 12 per cent for the NDP.

The most recent four-week average found the Grits' lead reduced by half. Their support in Toronto stood at 44 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for the NDP and 24 per cent for the Tories.

Among urban voters in general, once a Liberal strength, the Grits and Tories continued to hover at 30 per cent while the NDP climbed several points to 19 per cent.

Decima CEO Bruce Anderson said the Liberals' choice of leader appears to have started the rise in NDP support and the erosion of the Liberals' Toronto fortress.

The Liberals had a caucus meeting today to discuss loose lips hurting any gains they might wish to kake in the polls.

[Vancouver King]

... loose lips hurting any gains they might wish to kake in the polls.

Did that damn Ignatieff say "let them eat kake", again?

[madmax]

Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals.

Explain?

As I said when SES recently released their numbers, the Conservatives are in trouble.

Mike Duffy couldn't get the numbers, but they hinted that the CPC might not like the results.

There isn't going to be an election, so poll numbers don't mean much. Also on MDL was a poll asking Canadians when they would like an election. FALL 2008. That is a date I am comfortable with.

BTW, I saw another Dion add. It expanded the Gavel add. It did nothing for me. Anyone else seen it?

[Vancouver King]

Possible reasons for precipitous drop in Conservative public support:

1) Confirmation that taxpayers are bucking up for the PM's hair stylist.

2) Stephen Harper's attempt to out-liberal the Liberals is alienating his core support.

3) Afghanistan, particularly body bag count and govt's refusal to impose a time limit.

4) The realization that our PM's character gos beyond petulant, he's just plain mean.

5) all of the above.

[Michael Bluth]

Possible reasons for precipitous drop in Conservative public support:

This "precipitous" drops is all based on the rumoured SES poll to come?

[jdobbin]

Possible reasons for precipitous drop in Conservative public support:

There were two polls last week. One had the Liberals and Tories close. The next had the Tories ahead by a larger margin. This week they are back to close and the NDP are up.

This the first one I have seen where the NDP have made real gains. Those are the numbers I will look at in the next polls.

[daniel]

Possible reasons for precipitous drop in Conservative public support:

1) Confirmation that taxpayers are bucking up for the PM's hair stylist.

2) Stephen Harper's attempt to out-liberal the Liberals is alienating his core support.

3) Afghanistan, particularly body bag count and govt's refusal to impose a time limit.

4) The realization that our PM's character gos beyond petulant, he's just plain mean.

5) all of the above.

6) that Conservative standing of 38% a few weeks ago knocked the sense back into everyone.

[Michael Bluth]

6) that Conservative standing of 38% a few weeks ago knocked the sense back into everyone.

Moving from 38% to 36% in popular support is a precipitous drop?

Isn't that 2 % within the margin of error of both polls?

The 36% figure is from the CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today. Link

[sharkman]

I figure as soon as an election is looming, the Tories will crank up the attack ad machine and kick ass. They really have an advantage there.

[jdobbin]

I figure as soon as an election is looming, the Tories will crank up the attack ad machine and kick ass. They really have an advantage there.

That's a lot of faith riding on election ads and hoping they produce a majority.

[Michael Bluth]

I figure as soon as an election is looming, the Tories will crank up the attack ad machine and kick ass. They really have an advantage there.

You only have to look at the Conservative and Liberal pre-election ads to see that the Conservatives have a big edge with that one.

[geoffrey]

That's a lot of faith riding on election ads and hoping they produce a majority.

The Tories will have a stronger campaign, they have the money and a leader that can speak functional English.

That said, I'm really praying for a minority so that Harper can go by the wayside, and we'll have to see less selling out of conservative values by some power hungry hooligan.

So much potential for a strong, more conservative, CPC under the right leader. Harper won't get the job done, and I can't vote for his terrible record thus far.

[Michael Bluth]

The Tories will have a stronger campaign, they have the money and a leader that can speak functional English.

That said, I'm really praying for a minority so that Harper can go by the wayside, and we'll have to see less selling out of conservative values by some power hungry hooligan.

So much potential for a strong, more conservative, CPC under the right leader. Harper won't get the job done, and I can't vote for his terrible record thus far.

With the current standings the Conservatives have a shot at a majority with another strong campaign.

Geoff, weren't you arguing for Bernard Lord as the next CPC leader? Say what you will but nothing he ever did as Premier of NB or has said would give any indication that he would be more conservative than Harper as PM.

Would you vote for Lord knowing he wouldn't be as conservative as you would like?

[jdobbin]

There was quite a lot of interesting things in the Strategic Counsel poll from CTV.

The big story in Quebec, however, is the Bloc's bump after their provincial sovereigntist cousins, the Parti Quebecois, finished third in the March 26 provincial election (percentage point change from a March 20-21 poll in brackets):

* Bloc Quebecois: 39 per cent (+6)

* Conservatives: 21 per cent (-3)

* Liberals: 19 per cent (-5)

* Greens: 12 per cent (+1)

* NDP: 9 per cent (+1)

On Afghanistan.

The last time a majority of respondents supported the sending of troops was in a March 2006 poll, which is just after the Kandahar phase of Canada's Afghanistan involvement began. Back then, 55 per cent supported the sending of troops, while 41 per cent were opposed.

A substantial minority, 46 per cent, think the troops should be brought home now. Eighteen per cent think the troops should have been returned after the original February 2007 deadline, and eight per cent support the troops remaining until 2009.

Twenty-four per cent say the troops should stay until Afghanistan is stabilized and rebuilt.

On casualties, 34 per cent say that is the price that must be paid, while 61 per cent say the price is too high.

On Kyoto:

Sixty-one per cent say Canada should try to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, while only 32 per cent agree with the view that the Kyoto targets are unachievable and that a made-in-Canada approach is required.

Environment Minister John Baird warned last week of dire economic consequences should Canada try to meet the Kyoto target of a six per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2012.

According to this poll, Canadians don't believe him. Thirty-six per cent say they find it believable that Kyoto would cost 275,000 jobs and trigger a recession, while 60 per cent don't find it believable. Only eight per cent find the claim very believable, while 25 per cent say it's not believable at all.

The poll also said there was no appetite for an election. The government would only receive cover for an election if the Opposition voted down a crime bill or environmental legislation. However, with the polls showing the Tories with a minority at the moment, it is a highly risky proposition to trigger an election on anyone's part.

[jdobbin]

The Tories will have a stronger campaign, they have the money and a leader that can speak functional English.

That said, I'm really praying for a minority so that Harper can go by the wayside, and we'll have to see less selling out of conservative values by some power hungry hooligan.

So much potential for a strong, more conservative, CPC under the right leader. Harper won't get the job done, and I can't vote for his terrible record thus far.

The Tories will indeed have a formidable campaign but to deliver a majority will require reaching out to people whom trust doesn't come easy. Issues like Afghanistan could send support plummeting.

[Vancouver King]

Good news for Jack Layton as well, his NDP is now at 18% and the Greens at 11% should get everyone's attention. Between the two lesser parties there is a huge 30% reservoir of potential strategic votes that will break down overwhelminly for the Liberals.

Explain?

Two over arching sentiments determined the last election.

'Throw the corrupt Liberals out' and 'a Conservative govt is scary' competed for adherents and the Liberal message lost. Thus their atonement on the Opposition benches and new leadership. But what of the second dynamic, that says the Tories were too scary to entrust with an unencumbered govt? Has this sentiment evaporated based on Harper's performance so far in govt? The answer, to New Democrats and Greens, is an unqualified no.

From an income tax increase on the working poor to environmental policy seemingly drafted by OPEC, New Democrats and Greens have every reason to fear a Harper majority. In the coming campaign If the polls indicate Conservatives are near majority territory, expect far left support to begin melting away, most of it going to the Liberals as strategic votes against Tory aspirations.

Remember, 'throw the corrupt Liberals out', is no longer in play. To the left, a 'scary' Conservative majority is.