Canadian Political Polls

[ScottSA]

The ADQ wants autonomy for Quebec. In Craig Oliver's universe this is, apparently, right up the Tories alley.

That's not why the ADQ is "right up the Tory's alley". The main attraction is that many of the economic policies of the ADQ are similar to those of the Tories, and the general right/left spectrum positioning of the two is similar. That's highlighted by the fact that a lot of the ADQ campaign workers are federal Tory campaign workers. Since no one knows what "autonomy" means in ADQland, Harper can position his own policy of increased provincial autonomy as very similar as well.

I think Oliver is more concerned with the philosophical similarities though...it speaks well for a right-leaning federal vote.

[jdobbin]

Doubt it. Canadians who like a snappy leader would have gravitated, and Canadians who want a PC leader would have switched, most likely would have cancelled each other out. It's hard for me to realize that there are on the fence voters, it would take a complete disaster for me to abandon the Tories. I find it odd that people are that fickle to switch voting intentions back and forth over the course of a few weeks. Well I guess I'm a hack then. Ha Ha.

You initially thought a budget would convince Canadians to switch to the Tories, why not an off the cuff remark?

Some say that off the cuff remarks in the Quebec election caused little shifts back and forth. Charest's talk of partition, Boisclair's on referendum and Dumont's on autonomy all caused shifts.

I think that when Harper acts more diplomatically, more prime ministerial, it calms the waters and his numbers float up. When he says something like Taliban or pedophiles in reference to another party, it seems to hurt. You might think it is great theatre but the pedophile remark in an earlier election seemed to have an overnight effect on the polls.

[jdobbin]

Here is the difference in Ontario from Decima at the beginning of the month to today.

Beginning of the month:

http://www.brooksbulletin.com/news/nationa...sp?itemid=60931

In Ontario, the Tories held on to their advantage, leading the Liberals 37 per cent to 32 per cent. The NDP and Green party were tied at 14 per cent.

Today:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national...63aecf6cb&k=399

And in Ontario, the Liberals were ahead in the most recent survey at 41 per cent to the Conservatives' 33 per cent. The NDP were at 14 per cent and the Green Party at 11 per cent in the province.

I think that is Liberals 11 points up, Tories 5 points down.

[jdobbin]

Last night's Quebec election served up something for everyone. Just as I surmised that Charest's set back would rub off on his Ottawa Tory patron, along came Craig Oliver on CTV assuring all that the big winner of the evening was Stephen Harper.

The ADQ wants autonomy for Quebec. In Craig Oliver's universe this is, apparently, right up the Tories alley.

I don't know that anyone knows what ADQ will do in the next while. Even Quebec's most ardent political watchers don't know much about the people that were elected with Dumont. Their inexperience might be a problem.

Think about Sharon Carstairs in Manitoba in 1988. She took the party from one seat to 21 and Official Opposition status but the inexperienced people who were elected with her were not able to take her to the next level . The party fell back to third party status.

How does this help Harper? I don't know. Will Charest's people be angry that Harper Tories played by ADQ and Liberals against one another in an election?

[jdobbin]

That's not why the ADQ is "right up the Tory's alley". The main attraction is that many of the economic policies of the ADQ are similar to those of the Tories, and the general right/left spectrum positioning of the two is similar. That's highlighted by the fact that a lot of the ADQ campaign workers are federal Tory campaign workers. Since no one knows what "autonomy" means in ADQland, Harper can position his own policy of increased provincial autonomy as very similar as well.

I think Oliver is more concerned with the philosophical similarities though...it speaks well for a right-leaning federal vote.

What is Harper's policy of increased autonomy? Does he have one? If his intention is to have an election in the next three weeks, does he think ADQ who will be trying to find the washroom in Quebec City, be ready for it?

Will Charest's Liberals decide to support Dion instead because Harper's Tories split the vote to the ADQ?

[daniel]

... When he says something like Taliban or pedophiles in reference to another party, it seems to hurt. You might think it is great theatre but the pedophile remark in an earlier election seemed to have an overnight effect on the polls.

Shhh... Moral victories are for chumps. Just let Harper continue on with the Bill O' Reilly.

All we have to do is wait as that Mulroney-Tory-in-Liberal-clothing, Jean Charest, and that too-right-wing to be a Liberal, Mario Dumont both do a Mike Harris to Quebec.

[blueblood]

Doubt it. Canadians who like a snappy leader would have gravitated, and Canadians who want a PC leader would have switched, most likely would have cancelled each other out. It's hard for me to realize that there are on the fence voters, it would take a complete disaster for me to abandon the Tories. I find it odd that people are that fickle to switch voting intentions back and forth over the course of a few weeks. Well I guess I'm a hack then. Ha Ha.

You initially thought a budget would convince Canadians to switch to the Tories, why not an off the cuff remark?

Some say that off the cuff remarks in the Quebec election caused little shifts back and forth. Charest's talk of partition, Boisclair's on referendum and Dumont's on autonomy all caused shifts.

I think that when Harper acts more diplomatically, more prime ministerial, it calms the waters and his numbers float up. When he says something like Taliban or pedophiles in reference to another party, it seems to hurt. You might think it is great theatre but the pedophile remark in an earlier election seemed to have an overnight effect on the polls.

If voters who sit on the fence agree with the tory budget then why wouldn't they switch?

Dumont's autonomy and reasonable accomodation remarks got him 41 seats, Danny Williams being himself gets him a rating of 86% at one point in time and we know he says the first thing off the top of his head.

Anyhow, some people do like that sort of disiciveness and wit and charisma from leaders. Dion has none of that as he gets eaten alive at Question Period.

wiki

[ScottSA]

What is Harper's policy of increased autonomy? Does he have one?

Well, yeah. He's always been for devolution of powers to the provinces as the BNA Act specifies. Always. That's why he turned over more money to the provinces, with fewer strings attached. The Libs have been fighting with the provinces for decades over powers than never should have been interfered with in the first place. Harper is trying to right things again. Most of this alleged fat budget was simply doing that...not giving NEW money to anyone.

[jdobbin]

Well, yeah. He's always been for devolution of powers to the provinces as the BNA Act specifies. Always. That's why he turned over more money to the provinces, with fewer strings attached. The Libs have been fighting with the provinces for decades over powers than never should have been interfered with in the first place. Harper is trying to right things again. Most of this alleged fat budget was simply doing that...not giving NEW money to anyone.

Devolution of powers would be getting out of education, healthcare, etc. I don't see evidence of that.

Checkbook federalism has been criticized by Tories in the past. It is not a devolution of power. It is a constitutional obligation that happens yearly and continues to happen. It wasn't a devolution of federal taxing authority to the provinces.

[jdobbin]

If voters who sit on the fence agree with the tory budget then why wouldn't they switch?

Dumont's autonomy and reasonable accomodation remarks got him 41 seats, Danny Williams being himself gets him a rating of 86% at one point in time and we know he says the first thing off the top of his head.

Anyhow, some people do like that sort of disiciveness and wit and charisma from leaders. Dion has none of that as he gets eaten alive at Question Period.

wiki

Some did if the first polls are indication. This poll also was able to take it Harper's comments on the Taliban as well. Could it had an effect? Possibly. Something did.

Harper was a poor performer in Opposition. So was Chretien.

[blueblood]

If voters who sit on the fence agree with the tory budget then why wouldn't they switch?

Dumont's autonomy and reasonable accomodation remarks got him 41 seats, Danny Williams being himself gets him a rating of 86% at one point in time and we know he says the first thing off the top of his head.

Anyhow, some people do like that sort of disiciveness and wit and charisma from leaders. Dion has none of that as he gets eaten alive at Question Period.

wiki

Some did if the first polls are indication. This poll also was able to take it Harper's comments on the Taliban as well. Could it had an effect? Possibly. Something did.

Harper was a poor performer in Opposition. So was Chretien.

The effect was more likely the same honeymoon scenario as what happened to the Libs around the leadership race time, wall to wall coverage of the budget.

You forgot about Day being a poor performer.

[jdobbin]

The effect was more likely the same honeymoon scenario as what happened to the Libs around the leadership race time, wall to wall coverage of the budget.

You forgot about Day being a poor performer.

You're right. Day was a poor performer.

He also may be partly responsible for the downturn in the polls with the talk that he might have paid for his seat illegally. I can't remember though if this information came out during the poll timeframe.

[blueblood]

It might have, this story has been around for a while.

[Michael Bluth]

You're right. Day was a poor performer.

He also may be partly responsible for the downturn in the polls with the talk that he might have paid for his seat illegally.

Yeah, a story full of conjecture that was a one-wonder.

Too bad the Lbierals couldn't have "found" their mystery documents a week or two later.

[blueblood]

Now the tories are back up to 41% according to leger marketing. It was shown on MDL. But the polls are showing volatility 30-40% is getting ridiculous.

[jdobbin]

Decima has a poll today saying that the majority of Canadians have changed their votes repeatedly over the last months.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070328/...volatile_voters

Canadians appear to be a fickle bunch when it comes to deciding what federal political party to support - cool comfort for leaders trying to gauge their chances.

A new Decima poll, provided to The Canadian Press, suggests that a whopping 57 per cent of voters have changed their political allegiances over the past few months. That's up from 48 per cent of wavering voters two years ago.

[jdobbin]

Now the tories are back up to 41% according to leger marketing. It was shown on MDL. But the polls are showing volatility 30-40% is getting ridiculous.

The Globe and Mail says that the results are more like this when you add the 20% undecided.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

The Leger Marketing survey indicates the Conservatives had the support of 33 per cent of respondents, the Liberals 22 per cent and the NDP 12 per cent.

The Bloc had the backing of 7 per cent of respondents while the Green Party had 5 per cent.

Twenty per cent of respondents were undecided.

[Vancouver King]

Now the tories are back up to 41% according to leger marketing. It was shown on MDL. But the polls are showing volatility 30-40% is getting ridiculous.

The Globe and Mail says that the results are more like this when you add the 20% undecided.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

The Leger Marketing survey indicates the Conservatives had the support of 33 per cent of respondents, the Liberals 22 per cent and the NDP 12 per cent.

The Bloc had the backing of 7 per cent of respondents while the Green Party had 5 per cent.

Twenty per cent of respondents were undecided.

Your link describes the Bloc's Michel Gauthier announcing retirement after this session. Were you implying that the 11% spread changes once the undecided are factored in? Politics 101 tells us that the undecided break down exactly as the decided do.

[jdobbin]

Your link describes the Bloc's Michel Gauthier announcing retirement after this session. Were you implying that the 11% spread changes once the undecided are factored in? Politics 101 tells us that the undecided break down exactly as the decided do.

The link also has Leger's poll numbers.

Do they? According to Decima's poll above, the pollsters aren't sure where people are going from week to week lately.

[Michael Bluth]

The link also has Leger's poll numbers.

Do they? According to Decima's poll above, the pollsters aren't sure where people are going from week to week lately.

But there is no indication one way or the other which way the undecided vote will go. That's why it is statistically most accurate to apportion those votes along the lines of the decided vote.

But then again that would involve being honest.

[Vancouver King]

The link also has Leger's poll numbers.

Do they? According to Decima's poll above, the pollsters aren't sure where people are going from week to week lately.

But there is no indication one way or the other which way the undecided vote will go. That's why it is statistically most accurate to apportion those votes along the lines of the decided vote.

But then again that would involve being honest.

If honesty in polling is your priority consider this Leger sounding as little more than interim entertainment until the real professionals at SES update their February numbers. You remember these people, they are the ones that predicted the final support numbers for all 5 major parties in the January 23rd election to within one-tenth of 1% of the actual outcomes.

From a polling-gone-mad perspective, few things compare with Allan Greg - barely 2 weeks before January's election - proclaiming the Tories enjoyed an 18% lead on Martin's Liberals. Agendas and objective polling are incompatible.

[gc1765]

Politics 101 tells us that the undecided break down exactly as the decided do.

I imagine a lot of the undecided will end up voting Liberal, since they are in the middle. Anyone on the far right has probably already made up their mind to vote Conservative, and anyone on the far left has probably already made up their mind to vote NDP. It's the people in the middle who are undecided.

[ScottSA]

Politics 101 tells us that the undecided break down exactly as the decided do.

That may be true as a snapshot measurement, but it holds true for about 5 minutes beyond that. They can landslide in every direction or in one direction with ease at the slightest change in the political environment. It's essentially useless to speculate future results based on polls today. Sometimes the breakdown maintains; sometimes we see it slip sideways to land in a heap where it's least expected. I don't know how many folks remember "KIM!" from 1993, at something like 45% prior to the election, and about 10% by the end of it.

[Canadian Blue]

The PC's got 16.5% of the vote; as well Kim Campbell had run a brutal campaign. This next election is up in the air, it could go either way. Alot of it will depend on whether or not the New Democrats will vote strategically to bring about a victory for Dion; if the New Democrat's don't, then I'd imagine Harper will win either a minority government or a majority.

[Keepitsimple]

Politics 101 tells us that the undecided break down exactly as the decided do.

I imagine a lot of the undecided will end up voting Liberal, since they are in the middle. Anyone on the far right has probably already made up their mind to vote Conservative, and anyone on the far left has probably already made up their mind to vote NDP. It's the people in the middle who are undecided.

That may have been the case 2 or 3 years ago but the Liberals have been moving left and the Conservatives are now occupying more of the center than the Liberals. With Dion at the helm, I don't think it will be long before the Liberals are simply a left wing party and the conservatives are center and centre right. It doesn't help the Liberals to have talk about "uniting the left" - that just reinforces the thought that they are vacating the center. Interesting times.