Elections Rumour

[August1991]

Selon La Presse, la direction du parti craint de perdre le vote de confiance aux Communes concernant l'entente sur le bois d'oeuvre avec les États-Unis.

Les députés conservateurs et les présidents d'associations ont été invités à se tenir prêts pour des élections, qui pourraient être déclenchées dès la fin septembre.

La Presse 26 Aug 2006

Conservative MP Garth Turner (Halton, Ont.) says the Conservatives are "more ready" for a fall election, from strategy to organization, than any other political party.

Hill Times

A veteran pol who enjoyed a friendly and candid chat with Stephen Harper not long ago came away with an interesting and obviously lasting impression of the prime minister and the Conservative agenda.

"I don't think I have ever met a politician with such a complete and singular focus on one thing," the pol recalled. "Everything -- absolutely everything -- was about winning a majority government in the next election."

Greg Weston

"This agreement will end years of costly legal wrangling, and allow us to move on to build a stronger, more prosperous Canada," Harper said in a brief appearance in the foyer of the House of Commons.

"As such, and because of its fiscal measures, the vote on this will be a confidence measure."

CTV

So, will Harper pull a Liberal to take advantage of the opposition? Or will he do as Clark and make a fool of himself?

Is the softwood lumber dispute a good issue for an election? Or is it merely a good issue to divide the Liberals?

If not softwood lumber, does Harper have plans for another reason to provoke an election? Or does Harper have no plans to provoke an election but merely want to keep the political junkees on the qui vive?

[gc1765]

Last week, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) announced that the softwood lumber agreement with the United States would go ahead because the government had received a "clear majority" of support for the deal. To go ahead for approval by a vote in the House, it requires 95 per cent support from the Canadian industry as well as the support of provincial governments with softwood lumber communities. The same day, the Prime Minister told CanWest News Service that, "We're taking a day or two just to confirm the final numbers and the positions of every single company. But I'll just say it's a very strong majority."

"We're getting some indication from the Liberals that that's the case," he said. "I suspect the Bloc might be thinking along the same lines of respecting the Quebec government's support and Quebec industry. So it's just a question of the NDP, and quite frankly, I would expect them to continue to play politics with the issue and oppose it for opposition sake.

I don't know, if 95% of industry approves of the deal before it gets put to a vote, it would be pretty stupid for the opposition (ie liberals) to vote against it. Why vote against something that only 5% are opposed to? I think it's just wishful thinking on the part of the conservatives. They probably think this is their best time to try for a majority, before the liberals get a leader. The bloc will also probably support it since they are the ones propping up the conservatives until the fiscal imbalance is addressed (not that it's likely to happen), and if Quebec supports it then I can't see them opposing it.

[Ricki Bobbi]

What Turner said is right.

The Conservatives are not aiming to force an election in the fall, that's why IMHO there will not be one.

I truly believe their preferred date is the spring.

August 1991, I don't know if I get your point? Are you saying Harper will make a fool of himself if he doesn't force a fall election?

[jbg]

What Turner said is right.

The Conservatives are not aiming to force an election in the fall, that's why IMHO there will not be one.

I truly believe their preferred date is the spring.

August 1991, I don't know if I get your point? Are you saying Harper will make a fool of himself if he doesn't force a fall election?

Why wouldn't they want a fall election against the leaderless Grits?

[geoffrey]

Why wouldn't they want a fall election against the leaderless Grits?

Low poll numbers in Ontario and Quebec. Nothing would change.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Conservatives are up slightly in both Ontario and Quebec but nohting much. No more than a total of a 10 seat swing in the best case scenario. Using this week's SES poll.

There are some interesting thing happening in the Maritimes. The Conservatives lead the Liberals by 8% in the region. Considering the Liberals won the popular vote in all four provinces in January it has to make you wonder if things are going right for Harper et. al.

Conservative support in Quebec may be *wavering* but it is still stronger than it was in January.

If there were another election in 2006 the Conservatives would probably win a stronger minority as a best case scenario. Harper is on a mission for a majority government, thus no election this year.

Low poll numbers in Ontario and Quebec. Nothing would change.

[geoffrey]

An interesting fact appears when you take a look at the SES poll. Since 02Q2, when the Liberals had 49% of popular support... the CPC sat at 35%. They sit at 36% now. It's troubling that, despite a few falls in support along the way, their support is unchanged over the last 4 years. They aren't gaining much support at all. They certainly aren't making headway towards that 40% critical number.

What's happened to give the CPC their minority status isn't so much an increase in their support, but a significant vote split between the NDP and Liberals... add in the Greens and a few more Quebec nationalists to boot.

It's a disturbing fact to CPC campaigners that they can't appeal to many outside of their 35% traditional base. This has to change if they want to be elected to a majority. Of all the proposals that Harper had on the table this election, the biggest one that would have swung some Liberals over was the Health Care reforms, specificially the patient wait times guarntee. It was also the only one of the five not to have been implemented. This will hurt.

The gain of the Jewish vote in Toronto and Montreal may help, but I doubt if it will turn ridings.

I wouldn't even look at that Atlantic Canada split, the error margin is over +/- 10%. The Liberals could have a solid lead... hell the NDP could be leading within the statistical limits.

So this is the deal. The CPC needs to sway voters from the left... without losing ground on the right, a very difficult idea. Carbon taxes, siding with terrorists in the middle-east, higher taxes, more welfare... that'd gain them a majority, but they'd lose their traditional base and we'd be back to a 2 seat CPC soon enough.

The Liberals are being very smart right now. I had always though they needed to sway CPC voters to their side in order to regain a majority. But that's obviously not true. They have way more to gain and regain from the left then the right. All their support has gone to the NDP and Greens, not the CPC. That's likely why we see a much more leftist Liberal party now than in the initial stages of the Chretien regime.

Can the CPC shift Canadian's views more right-wing? That'd be the other alternative. I'd suggest that in the Mulroney years, many Canadians were considerably more right-wing, shown by the support of the right-wing Liberal government after the PC collapse. Neither Mulroney style PCism or Martin's (as Finance Minister) fiscal restraint (and social restraint initially from the LPC) would be tolerated by a majority level of Canadians anymore. Can they be shifted back? Or is it a result of more socialist immigrants moving here that has skewed the balance?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Where a you getting the 02Q2 figures from? A combination of PC and Alliance support at the time?

Granted the sample size in the maritimes is quite low. But to fairly draw the analogy you would have to say the Conservatives are equally as likely to sweep the maritimes as the NDP are to be leading there. (Remember the margin of error cuts both ways.)

If the field on the left is becoming more and more crowded there is no real need to radically shift course.

The poll puts the CPC at 36% nationally. The Liberals eeked out a majority in 1997 with a little under 38.5% of the national vote.

The Liberals barely cracked 40% in 2000 running against freakin' Stockwell Day and a still divided right.

The Conservatives are not in a bad position at all right now. The fall session will be critical to their winning a majority. The ball still appears to be in Harper's court.

[jdobbin]

Conservatives slip badly in Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/31082006/6/n-ca...round-poll.html

[Ricki Bobbi]

Those are pretty much the same numbers as in the SES Research poll. Conservatives hovering around 25% in Quebec .... Not very good. But both polls were taken right after the most recent mid-East war so the CPC *might* rebound.

All kinda irrelevant as I don't think they were ever planning to force a second election in 2006.

[jdobbin]

Those are pretty much the same numbers as in the SES Research poll. Conservatives hovering around 25% in Quebec .... Not very good. But both polls were taken right after the most recent mid-East war so the CPC *might* rebound.

All kinda irrelevant as I don't think they were ever planning to force a second election in 2006.

I think there have been some trial balloons about an election this fall but that is pretty much all they are. I don't think any party is ready for another run at the moment.

[Shakeyhands]

The gain of the Jewish vote in Toronto and Montreal may help, but I doubt if it will turn ridings.

Geoffrey, I doubt Harpers backing of Israel is enough to swing the vote in this demo. Most Jewish people are pretty smart and don't form their vote on a single issue. Good luck anyway.

[jbg]

The gain of the Jewish vote in Toronto and Montreal may help, but I doubt if it will turn ridings.

Geoffrey, I doubt Harpers backing of Israel is enough to swing the vote in this demo. Most Jewish people are pretty smart and don't form their vote on a single issue. Good luck anyway.

Thanks for the compliment. You're wrong in one respect. Jews are not smart enough to know that Conservatives/Republicans are their friends these days, and Liberals/Democrats by and large are not.

[jdobbin]

Thanks for the compliment. You're wrong in one respect. Jews are not smart enough to know that Conservatives/Republicans are their friends these days, and Liberals/Democrats by and large are not.

There are still far too many domestic issues that liberal Jewish voters don't have in common with the Conservatives.

A new Liberal leader will likely make a huge difference to the Jewish community this year.

[jbg]

Thanks for the compliment. You're wrong in one respect. Jews are not smart enough to know that Conservatives/Republicans are their friends these days, and Liberals/Democrats by and large are not.

There are still far too many domestic issues that liberal Jewish voters don't have in common with the Conservatives.

A new Liberal leader will likely make a huge difference to the Jewish community this year.

Hopefully, to illustrate forcefully that the Left is not a friendly force to Jews.

[JonB2004]

I'm not sure if we will have an election this fall. Currently, the Liberals and the NDP oppose the softwood lumber deal and the Bloc Quebecois is undecided. I thought the Liberals would support the deal because they don't have a leader yet and that could cause them to lose more seats if an election were to be called this fall. I'm not totally impressed with the lumber deal. It's better than the Liberals ever did. At least the Conservatives got 80%. I would prefer all of the money, but I guess I can live with 80%. I say support the deal and let the government live until the budget this spring.

[jdobbin]

Hopefully, to illustrate forcefully that the Left is not a friendly force to Jews.

And would that be demonstrated?

[jdobbin]

I'm not sure if we will have an election this fall. Currently, the Liberals and the NDP oppose the softwood lumber deal and the Bloc Quebecois is undecided. I thought the Liberals would support the deal because they don't have a leader yet and that could cause them to lose more seats if an election were to be called this fall. I'm not totally impressed with the lumber deal. It's better than the Liberals ever did. At least the Conservatives got 80%. I would prefer all of the money, but I guess I can live with 80%. I say support the deal and let the government live until the budget this spring.

The Bloq are supporting the deal because Quebec is supporting the deal.

The Liberals haven't indicated yet but it is doubtful they will vote against it unless you can show where they said they are. Only the NDP has indicated they are voting against it.

[jbg]

Hopefully, to illustrate forcefully that the Left is not a friendly force to Jews.

And would that be demonstrated?

Mr. Alphabet's statements about Israel on his "fact-finding" mission for starters. Or Michael Moore's statements when he was arrested.

[jdobbin]

Mr. Alphabet's statements about Israel on his "fact-finding" mission for starters. Or Michael Moore's statements when he was arrested.

I think the MP you are talking about resigned over his comments on Hezbollah not on Israel. And Moore is America's problem not Canada's.

I simply don't believe you when you say the Liberal Party is anti-Semitic.

[jdobbin]

Second poll this week showing the government has been hurt on foreign policy. No majority coming any time soon.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/02092006/6/n-ca...ives-polls.html

[Ricki Bobbi]

Second poll this week showing the government has been hurt on foreign policy. No majority coming any time soon.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/02092006/6/n-ca...ives-polls.html

Hmmm, the Liberals won a majority in 1997 with a little under 38.5% of the vote. This poll puts the Conservatives at 38%. What was your point?

[jdobbin]

Hmmm, the Liberals won a majority in 1997 with a little under 38.5% of the vote. This poll puts the Conservatives at 38%. What was your point?

It is where that support is based that wins elections. It isn't in Quebec.

[Ricki Bobbi]

They are down 2 1/2 points in Quebec since the election. They probably hold 9 of the ten seats they won in Quebec last time at that level of support. (Louis Hebert being the one loss.)

The increased support would mean extra seats in Ontario, SK, the Maritimes and BC. Could they cobble together 31 to 35 more seats from those provinces with the extra support. Maybe....

Say what you will but this poll is better for the Conservatives than any other party, except for maybe the Greens.

It is where that support is based that wins elections. It isn't in Quebec.

[jdobbin]

Say what you will but this poll is better for the Conservatives than any other party, except for maybe the Greens.

Against a leaderless, rudderless Liberal party, they should be in majority territory.