N. Korea Reportedly Launches 4 Missiles

[Shady]

No. Just because they have tha ability to use nukes, does not mean they will

I didn't say they would. I simply said that the probability of using something increases when you can actually use it. It really shouldn't be a difficult concept to grasp.

Your faith in missile defense technology is amusing

And your faith in mutually assured destruction is amusing to me. I think that if missile defense can help us avoid a nuclear retaliation, and the destruction of millions of people, then it's definitely something that's worth further development.

As for containment and deterrence: containment is a strategy that entails isolating and weakening an enemy. Sanctions would be a tactical application of a containment strategy. Deterrence, of course, simply uses the threat of retaliation to curb aggression

North Korea is about as isolated as one can get. How further isolated would you like them to be? And the threat of retaliation is only a threat if you'd actually go through with it. Again, I'm not sure that a nuclear retaliation is the best answer to the situation. Especially not if it's possible to destroy a missile before it reaches its target.

Yeah here we go with the Isreal support again

I'd rather be defending Israel then Iran.

[Black Dog]

I didn't say they would. I simply said that the probability of using something increases when you can actually use it. It really shouldn't be a difficult concept to grasp

Again, no. That the ability to use these weapons depends on actually having them is self-evident. If they didn't have the ability, then this entire conversation is moot. But they do, and will likely continue to improve on it. However, that does not increase the chances of them using them, which would be based on other factors.

And your faith in mutually assured destruction is amusing to me. I think that if missile defense can help us avoid a nuclear retaliation, and the destruction of millions of people, then it's definitely something that's worth further development.

We're not even talking about M.A.D. here. We're talking about a country like Norh Korea or Iran getting one chance to do a bit of damage before being wiped out completely. There's nothing "mutual" about it.

In any case: deterrence works. Missile defence currently does not.

North Korea is about as isolated as one can get. How further isolated would you like them to be? And the threat of retaliation is only a threat if you'd actually go through with it. Again, I'm not sure that a nuclear retaliation is the best answer to the situation. Especially not if it's possible to destroy a missile before it reaches its target.

A big if.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Missile defense is a good investment. Defense being the operative word. It is not an offensive weapon and as such should give the average human a little hope for the future. These things are not the rudimentary nuke verses nuke system that the Russians developed decades ago, but instead are very highly advanced interceptors. The present kill ratio leaves a lot to be desired, but it is better than nothing at all and it poses no threat to any nation.

North Korea is a problem, and it will stay that way until they get a chance to blackmail our American brothers. What Korea whats is money, and they WILL use nuclear blackmail to get it. That is why Bush wants multilateral negotiations to spread out the cost of dealing with this wingnut. This is obviously just my opinion and I have nothing besides supposition to support it but we are all entitled to our opinions.

I see two options with North Korea, pay the price or don't. If we pay now, we will continue to pay forever. If we don't pay now we will have to stand together and accept the fact that a nuclear war is a likely outcome. Millions of people will die, and the clean up costs will be horrific, but I don't don't see any other possible scenarios. Sure you could use conventional weapons to take him or his infrastructure out, but there exists a possibility that he has assembled a warhead already and an ICBM is not the only means of delivering one of the damned things. He could be prepared for a first strike of either conventional or nuclear origins and have developed a plan to attack either South Korea or the United States with a completed weapon in something as common as a cargo carrier or something.

With Japan talking about a premptive strike, you simply can't ignor his possible response to such a thing. Remember that Japan is the only nation to have witnessed the horrific use of this type of weapon. They are not likely willing to be on the receiving end again.

These are dangerous times people.

[theloniusfleabag]

I think an important point that some people are missing here is that it is highly likely that North Korea does not have nukes. They also do not have a 'functioning' missile that can reach North America. They are trying, mind you, and that is worrisome. However, for now, the threat is overblown, hence the curiously mild reaction from the US and others. Again, I must call attention to the fact that NK is several times more of a threat than Iraq was, as they are claiming to have WMDs, are both threatening to and trying to use/develop them, and yet Iraq got invaded while NK seems to be getting a 'pass'.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Okay lets go with that idea. How sure of this are you? Are you willing to bet the lives of your family on it?

[gc1765]

I think an important point that some people are missing here is that it is highly likely that North Korea does not have nukes. They also do not have a 'functioning' missile that can reach North America. They are trying, mind you, and that is worrisome. However, for now, the threat is overblown, hence the curiously mild reaction from the US and others. Again, I must call attention to the fact that NK is several times more of a threat than Iraq was, as they are claiming to have WMDs, are both threatening to and trying to use/develop them, and yet Iraq got invaded while NK seems to be getting a 'pass'.

It is quite likely that North Korea is at least trying to make nukes, but so far, to my knowledge, they have not tested any. Let's just hope that if they do decide to test their nukes that it will go as well as their missile tests

[Riverwind]

I must call attention to the fact that NK is several times more of a threat than Iraq was, as they are claiming to have WMDs, are both threatening to and trying to use/develop them, and yet Iraq got invaded while NK seems to be getting a 'pass'.

NK has enough conventional weapons to kill millions living in Seoul and other parts of South Korea in a few days. NK gets a pass because it is too dangerous to invade.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

A freaking pass! You must be joking. Some nutcase literally threatens nuclear war and he gets a pass. Do we give a sexual prowness medal to rapists next?

[Black Dog]

Jerry, you clearly miss RW's point. NK gets a pass in the sense that the United States would not invade or attempt regime change by force like they attempted with Iraq because of the enormous costs of such an operation. Thus the reliance on dimplomacy and negotiations. The sabre rattling by all the parties involved is part of that process.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Jerry, you clearly miss RW's point. NK gets a pass in the sense that the United States would not invade or attempt regime change by force like they attempted with Iraq because of the enormous costs of such an operation. Thus the reliance on dimplomacy and negotiations. The sabre rattling by all the parties involved is part of that process.

Giving them a pass for any reason is simply not acceptable, politically expedient or not. The situational ethics that are so common these days cause more problems than they solve. The entire concept of grey scale politics sucks big time.

[Black Dog]

Giving them a pass for any reason is simply not acceptable, politically expedient or not. The situational ethics that are so common these days cause more problems than they solve. The entire concept of grey scale politics sucks big time.

So what's your solution?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There is only one solution. You need to go over there to talk to him one on one. You tell him straight up that your citizens are not very happy with the threat of a nuclear confrontation. Then you ask him what his intentions are. While you are doing this you tell him that blackmail isn't an option. Its time to get a grip, a threat to peace is a call to war. If he wants peace then he shuts up and does as he is told. If he wants war then he can do what he likes. Be a man, make the call.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear Mr. Fortin,

Be a man, make the call.

Indeed, I agree with you. Sadly, it is a crazy man who is to make that call. Not completely mad, nind you, because he is trying to use the sabre rattling as a negotiation tool to his advantage.

North Korea, I am sure, would have tested a nuke if they had one. It would have been a strong bargaining chip, and Kim Jong-il has certainly used every one he's got so far.

Black Dog is correct, the US will only act, whether it be unilaterally or otherwise, only if it is profitable to themselves to do so.

[BHS]

Dear Mr. Fortin,

Be a man, make the call.

Indeed, I agree with you. Sadly, it is a crazy man who is to make that call. Not completely mad, nind you, because he is trying to use the sabre rattling as a negotiation tool to his advantage.

North Korea, I am sure, would have tested a nuke if they had one. It would have been a strong bargaining chip, and Kim Jong-il has certainly used every one he's got so far.

Black Dog is correct, the US will only act, whether it be unilaterally or otherwise, only if it is profitable to themselves to do so.

And what's Europe's excuse for inaction, in those cases that America has failed to step up and fix the problem?

Besides which, I thought the idea was to disuade the US from invading other countries, not goad them into additional invasions.

[theloniusfleabag]

Dear BHS,

Besides which, I thought the idea was to disuade the US from invading other countries, not goad them into additional invasions.

Yes, you are right. (Perhaps the US should face sanctions over it's invasion of Iraq).The UN should be issuing a firm ultimatum to NK, backed by it's member nations. Unfortunately, China and Russia seem to be on the fence on this one.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I think it is clear that North Korea has promised to conduct nuclear war on the United States should they make an attempt to utilize a pre-emptive strike. Having said this in public, the Americans have now lost face in eastern terms. Kim is winning the propaganda war, big time. A couple more screw ups by Bush and he will lose the support of China. Then there will be nobody to turn this off when it gets started.

[theloniusfleabag]

Here is an interesting read...

http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/libra...0707-kcna01.htm

The aerial espionage acts are 1.3 times those in the corresponding period of the last year.

All the facts prove that the military movements of the United States to unleash a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula at any cost have reached the extremely dangerous stage.

To cope with this, the army and people of the DPRK are increasing the military deterrent so as to mercilessly frustrate any provocations of the aggressors.

That is funny. Perhaps this is why the world isn't taking them too seriously.

[Machinations]

NK has enough conventional weapons to kill millions living in Seoul and other parts of South Korea in a few days. NK gets a pass because it is too dangerous to invade.

Essentially yes. If anywhere in the world there is a Vichy government its in Seoul. The South Koreans are ion a dangerous situation. Kim Jong-Il is a madman, of that there is little doubt, and yes, he has a relatively modern military. Complicating matters is the terrain - North Korea is mountainous and heavily forested, meaning any war would likely lead to heavy casualties.

Yeah, I would have agreed with the North Korea intervention, years ago - this is a problem we have inherited that needs to be dealt with before it comes to an unpleasant head.