NL election

[SpankyMcFarland]

A provincial election has just been called in Newfoundland and Labrador. Usually these aren’t about much but this time we have the proposed Hydro deal with Quebec for the two parties to debate. The Opposition are vehemently opposed to the deal and claim it’s more of the same foolishness that we signed up to with the Upper Churchill deal that caused us so much grief. Naturally, Mr. Hogan’s government dispute that and say we’ll receive hundreds of billions this time round and keep the province solvent. 

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Newfoundland and Labrador will head to the polls for a provincial election on Oct. 14.

Liberal Leader John Hogan — the province's premier since May —  made a visit to Government House on Monday to ask Lt.-Gov. Joan Marie Aylward to dissolve the House of Assembly. He was all smiles as he walked the grounds, joined by his wife, Gill, and their dog, Rooney, shortly after 1:30 p.m.

"This is a very special day for me, and I think a great day for the province," Hogan told reporters outside.

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Hogan's Liberals are vying to hold onto power for a fourth consecutive government against a Progressive Conservative Party led by Tony Wakeham and the New Democratic Party led by Jim Dinn.

Each leader is also marching their respective party down the campaign trail as the head for the first time.

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There are 40 seats in the House of Assembly. The Liberals hold 19, the PCs hold 14 and the NDP hold one. Two seats are held by Independents.

Four seats are currently vacant.

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Hogan also spoke of the ongoing Churchill Falls negotiations between Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, which he previously called the priority issue of the election.

While he isn't able to be part of negotiations during the election period, Hogan called himself the best leader to see the generational deal through.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-2025-election-1.7624820
 

Some background in the Churchill Falls deal.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-election-mou-critics-1.7633931

 

 

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The Liberal slogan ‘Real energy, real momentum, real leadership’ is a bit of a mouthful. The PCs are promising a referendum on the Hydro MOU which is always a gamble.

[August1991]

Hogan has a deal.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

15 hours ago, August1991 said:

Hogan has a deal.

 

It’s not finalized. The final deal is scheduled to be signed in April 2026 at the moment. The other crowd here, the PCs, want to rip it up which is complete madness as far as I am concerned. I may even start campaigning in this election. There is an issue at stake which is really important and yet isn’t receiving much attention here. Here’s a FAQ sheet from HydroNL. Of course, it’s biased but I presume the basic facts are correct. 

https://nlhydro.com/good-to-know/the-churchill-falls-mou-just-the-facts/

 

[herbie]

Happy to see the issue is about the economic future there and not book bans, anti-vaxers and trannies.

[Politics1990]

• ndp have no chance  so go libs lol

[SpankyMcFarland]

23 hours ago, herbie said:

Happy to see the issue is about the economic future there and not book bans, anti-vaxers and trannies.

The PCs are house-trained here. Normally there’s not much to choose between the two main parties but this time we have the new Churchill Falls deal on the table. I believe we must press ahead and get this deal signed ASAP or the province could go bust. It’s a weird campaign so far. There’s so much at stake and yet most people are not getting excited at all. 

Edited September 22, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[August1991]

On 9/21/2025 at 11:54 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

The PCs are house-trained here....

House trained?

There is no such place as "Newfoundland & Labrador". (This term is an invention of the 1980s and Brian Peckford.)

There are at most Newfoundlanders. And the Labrador coast.

=====

Churchill Falls is like a gold mine/uranium mine on the moon. Valuable - but the true value is bringing it to market.

The more west you go, the more crazy, risk-takng males are; Newfoundlanders are like Icelandic people - but crazier. Swedes are cautious.  

[August1991]

On 9/20/2025 at 12:31 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

...

There is an issue at stake which is really important and yet isn’t receiving much attention here. Here’s a FAQ sheet from HydroNL. Of course, it’s biased but I presume the basic facts are correct. 

https://nlhydro.com/good-to-know/the-churchill-falls-mou-just-the-facts/

 

By chance, geography, Labrador (Newfoundland) has the water, the falls.

By chance, geography, Quebec has the space/territory to bring the power to market.

Who should benefit from this "resource"?

=====

Rene Levesque raised these exact questions with Joey Smallwood in the early 1960s.

Ultimately, Levesque (and Trudeau Snr) said that Quebec will take the risk - and gain the profit.

[August1991]

BTW, I am no Liberal. On my mother's side, I'm a doubtful federalist.

My father was a true Newfoundlander, a federal Liberal who admired Smallwood.

[SpankyMcFarland]

11 hours ago, August1991 said:

House trained?

There is no such place as "Newfoundland & Labrador". (This term is an invention of the 1980s and Brian Peckford.)

There are at most Newfoundlanders. And the Labrador coast.

Them’s fightin’ words. One could argue that Canada is an invention too.

[SpankyMcFarland]

11 hours ago, August1991 said:

By chance, geography, Labrador (Newfoundland) has the water, the falls.

By chance, geography, Quebec has the space/territory to bring the power to market.

Who should benefit from this "resource"?

I suppose that’s the debate Alberta has had with the rest of Canada, esp. BC. 

[August1991]

On 10/11/2025 at 1:23 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

I suppose that’s the debate Alberta has had with the rest of Canada, esp. BC. 

Alberta has oil. But no way to get to the ocean.

=====

Who owns the "resource"?

The resource - or the way to bring it to market.

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 10/12/2025 at 10:31 PM, August1991 said:

Alberta has oil. But no way to get to the ocean.

=====

Who owns the "resource"?

The resource - or the way to bring it to market.

The resource is owned by the country and the province it’s in. Getting it out should be a secondary matter not subject to extortion. We have been way too lenient in these cases and it has hurt Canada. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Rough night so far. At the moment it’s PC 19, LIB 17, IND 2, NDP 2 in the 40 seats. If this hydro deal is blocked by a PC govt the province is in for a very uncertain future, esp. with a possible change of govt in Quebec. 

[CdnFox]

27 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Rough night so far. At the moment it’s PC 19, LIB 17, IND 2, NDP 2 in the 40 seats. If this hydro deal is blocked by a PC govt the province is in for a very uncertain future, esp. with a possible change of govt in Quebec. 

That deal always struck me as being one of the most horrible injustices in our history.  Basically theft which impoverished an entire province of people. 

I hadn't really read the new deal, just snippets in the news, but it SOUNDED like it was reasonable and gave fair value to the population. Mind you i didn't look too close. 

What is the conservative position, that they should stop dealing with quebec and look at selling direct for a higher price?

[SpankyMcFarland]

20 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

That deal always struck me as being one of the most horrible injustices in our history.  Basically theft which impoverished an entire province of people. 

I hadn't really read the new deal, just snippets in the news, but it SOUNDED like it was reasonable and gave fair value to the population. Mind you i didn't look too close. 

What is the conservative position, that they should stop dealing with quebec and look at selling direct for a higher price?

The PCs simply say they want to renegotiate the deal and put it to a referendum but they didn’t make a big issue of it in the campaign which looks to have been a winning strategy. I am hoping that means some minor tweaks to the existing deal and not tearing it up completely because the fear is that Legault will lose before a new deal can be signed and the next Quebec govt may decide to play hardball. After all, it has worked very well for them so far. They could wait ten years until NL can’t pay its bills at all and get any deal they want. One thing in NL we should know at this stage - no federal government will intervene to get us a just deal with Quebec. We are on our own on this one and with provincial debt approaching 20 billion (with liabilities double that, really) we may be speeding into a hard debt wall soon.

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

PC 21, LIB 15, IND 2, NDP 2. 21 is majority govt. Hard to see the Liberals climbing that mountain. The margins are small in some seats but the odds are firmly for a PC win. 

Rural NL went for the Tories more or less as it did in the general election. People wanted change after ten years of Liberal rule which is understandable. The Hydro deal wasn’t a big factor. Popular vote share was even overall but there were lop-sided results for the Liberals in ‘town’ (St. John’s) and many close wins for the Tories elsewhere (except in Northern Labrador where the PC guy got nearly all the votes going for some reason - don’t know why!). 
 

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

PC 21, LIB 15, IND 2, NDP 2. 21 is majority govt. Hard to see the Liberals climbing that mountain. The margins are small in some seats but the odds are firmly for a PC win. 

Well I will be thinking happy thoughts for you that the deal goes through either way. There's no doubt the province deserves a win there

[SpankyMcFarland]

27 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Well I will be thinking happy thoughts for you that the deal goes through either way. There's no doubt the province deserves a win there

We are toast if we don’t get a deal. I honestly can’t tell you if the MOU is a good one - I’m told it is good enough by people who know more than I do. Former PC Premier Danny Williams hates it but he is bitter about a lot of things including the universal drubbing he received for the Muskrat Falls fiasco which went many billions over budget. Somehow I felt Legault was out to make amends a little for what Quebec did to us which makes me very frightened of dealing with the PQ instead, if they win. They are hardcore and hostile. 

NL has a new PC government, not known if majority govt yet. 

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

By contemporary standards it was a good-tempered contest, if anything a little on the low energy side. Truth be told, there was more snark within the parties than between them. The PCs had a ceiling of 21 seats and hit it. They had a great ground game. However, I hope I don’t shock you when I reveal that neither party took the opportunity during the campaign to discuss the massive spending cuts that will be needed for our province to survive. Now come the headaches for Tony Wakeham. What a grim task: bills, bills everywhere and not a quid in sight.

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

It’s official. Majority government for the PCs. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Nice concession speech by Premier Hogan, no rancour at all in it and the crowd behaved themselves too. He put in a plug for the Churchill Falls MOU which is right and proper in my view. 

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

Wakeham being more pugnacious here, going after the “pundints” as he calls them as well as perhaps the sceptics in his own party, and talking more about Churchill Falls than he did recently. He sounds rather like Joey Smallwood on the subject and we all know how that turned out for the province - expletives deleted. Let’s hope his independent review of the deal backs it and we get through our next referendum experience without a Brexit-style nightmare for the government. 

Looking at his campaign promises, ‘better health care’ and ‘lower taxes’ will be difficult to bring about together unless we all fly to Dubai on one-way tickets and hope they don’t notice the run on fries. As for ‘safer communities’, I think Mr. Wakeham needs to take a little walk on the wild side, ie, the mainland. We have a critical shortage of young people already. Crime is the least of our problems. 

Edited October 15, 2025 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

We are toast if we don’t get a deal. I honestly can’t tell you if the MOU is a good one - I’m told it is good enough by people who know more than I do. Former PC Premier Danny Williams hates it but he is bitter about a lot of things including the universal drubbing he received for the Muskrat Falls fiasco which went many billions over budget. Somehow I felt Legault was out to make amends a little for what Quebec did to us which makes me very frightened of dealing with the PQ instead, if they win. They are hardcore and hostile. 

NL has a new PC government, not known if majority govt yet. 

The deal is still going to have you selling power to come back at A cut rate which then they make money on reselling to the united states. I don't care for it in that respect, feels like a province should benefit from its own resources. But the current rate is borderline slavery and the one I saw proposed in the deal was at least reasonable. You could wait till the contract is over and then renegotiate but that's a waste of the road and who knows what the circumstances will be by then.

It's a bit of a Mexican standoff in that respect. Quebec makes a lot of its money selling your power and it can't afford for that deal to go away which it might if they wait until things expire. NL can't afford to go without the billions of dollars they'd make between now and then.  Both sides need a deal now.