Predictions: Post Federal Election April 2024

[August1991]

1. It's obvious that Singh will not be NDP leader.

-I wonder how the NDP will change its method of choosing a leader

2. If the federal Liberals win a minority:

-if the NDP win enough seats, stable government for several years as the the NDP choose a new leader

-if the NDP don't win enough seats : federal election within a year

3. If the federal Liberals win a majority:

-stability

-austerity policies

-graft, corruption

[August1991]

If the federal Liberals depend on the BQ for a vote in Parliament, we will learn what kind of man this guy Mark Carney truly is.

At present, we don't know.

[August1991]

Poilievre? He's going to be leader of the opposition.

Will the CPC change him? Or change his advisors?

====

At present, we don't know what kind of man he truly is.

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, August1991 said:

1. It's obvious that Singh will not be NDP leader.

-I wonder how the NDP will change its method of choosing a leader

2. If the federal Liberals win a minority:

-if the NDP win enough seats, stable government for several years as the the NDP choose a new leader

-if the NDP don't win enough seats : federal election within a year

3. If the federal Liberals win a majority:

-stability

-austerity policies

-graft, corruption

If the NDP wins enough seats to matter then the liberals will lose the election. They're popularity right now is derived largely from stealing NDP votes. If the NDP do better than predicted in the polls it's because the liberals do worse

So if the NDP do well enough to matter then we will have a conservative minority or majority

It's highly unlikely however that in the event of a liberal minority that we will have an election within a year. The NDP will have to go through a leadership race. That process takes time and the other parties would be wanting to let that process see itself through so that the NDP can get its voters back from the liberals. That benefits both the conservatives and the block who are the only people that could bring the government down

Also the voters may very well punish somebody who doesn't give the winner enough time to make a serious effort. There will also have to be a post-mortem for the conservatives, I expect that Poilievre will retain leadership but it will be questions asked and there will have to be a leadership review to determine whether or not that's the case and that will not happen instantly.

Because of the timing and summer and such we would probably be looking at at least 15-18 months before another election could occur.

 

If the libs win a majority there will be no austerity at all. They will continue spending like crazy, probably more than they've already budgeted for exactly in the way they always have. nothing would change on that front. 

In addition immigration would ramp back up and the housing costs would remain high or higher. The 25 billion they've said would go to mobile home factories will be spent bringing Brooksfield's company Modulaire to canada and buying it a manufacturing facility and won't do a damn thing for Canadian housing. Like you're going to put a modular home in downtown toronto.  They will ship most of the prefabs over seas. 

the oil and gas industry will continue to be repressed. No pipelines will be started, we'll be at the mercy of the us. 

In short, everything that's not working now will get worse

ANd yes the corruption and scandal will be through the roof. Just the way ontario and quebec loves to see it. 

[August1991]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

If the NDP wins enough seats to matter then the liberals will lose the election. They're popularity right now is derived largely from stealing NDP votes. If the NDP do better than predicted in the polls it's because the liberals do worse

...

CdnFox, you live in English-Canada NPD fantasyland.

====

The federal Liberals will have:

a) majority

b) minority (with NPD)

c) minority (with BQ)

 

[August1991]

21 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

...

If the libs win a majority there will be no austerity at all. They will continue spending like crazy, probably more than they've already budgeted for exactly in the way they always have. nothing would change on that front.

....

Disagree.

IMHO, Carney is a Paul Martin Liberal.

Carney wants Canada to be great - like New Jersey.

[CdnFox]

19 minutes ago, August1991 said:

CdnFox, you live in English-Canada NPD fantasyland.

====

The federal Liberals will have:

a) majority

b) minority (with NPD)

c) minority (with BQ)

 

To be honest I'm actually predicting a conservative minority at this point

But assuming it's a liberal minority then it will not be with the NDP. That is just according to the polls that you are relying on to say they liberals will win at all. They cannot win unless the NDP loses

So that leaves them with minority with the block but the block is more likely to side with the conservatives than the liberals. Historically that has always been true.

What I suspect will happen is a conservative minority with the block. Followed by an election as soon as the liberals replace their leader and the NDP do as well. Probably called next September

Edited yesterday at 04:54 AM by CdnFox

[August1991]

As they say, Toronto would just be another Detroit.

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, August1991 said:

As they say, Toronto would just be another Detroit.

Except with higher rent apparently

[August1991]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

To be honest I'm actually predicting a conservative minority at this point

But assuming it's a liberal minority then it will not be with the NDP. That is just according to the polls that you are relying on to say they liberals will win at all. They cannot win unless the NDP loses

...

Conservative? Are you insane?

Even if the Conservatives have more seats than the Liberals, they cannot survive a vote.

======

It will be a Liberal government - likely minority.

At issue is whether they need NDP or BQ seats.

[August1991]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Except with higher rent apparently

People like Margaret Atwood and Andrew Coyne have always surprised me - why do you speak of them.

Robertson Davies is another story. He writes well.

[CdnFox]

46 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Conservative? Are you insane?

Remember when you went on for months explaining to me how it was absolutely impossible that trump could win because of kryptonite? And I said I wasn't so sure.......   

47 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Even if the Conservatives have more seats than the Liberals, they cannot survive a vote.

 Of course they can. Harper did it with two minorities for a long time and he pulled the plug on them. The block is easy for the conservatives to deal with. And they would hold the balance of power in such a circumstance.

The NDP won't be voting for anything in the near future they'll be looking for a new leader. I think we both agree on that.

And despite his claims to the contrary I'm about 90% sure that if he loses the election carney is going to pack his bags and go. Which means the liberals will be in the same boat, doing a leadership race.

SO for about a year neither party will even consider an election. 

And all PP has to do is get a bunch of things done he ran on and make enough of them confidence motions so that they can't shoot him down and then get his timing right, call an election and get his majority. 

Although to be honest it would probably be better if the liberals won a weak minority. Carney will eff up left right and center just as justin did. And then we can go to the polls in 18 months and he'll have to run on his track record 

[betsy]

Politics' wheel of fortune. 

 

Right now - do you think Singh doesn't regret taking down the government in DECEMBER, while Trudeau was in power?

 

Had he listened to Poilievre, and done it then............. NDP would've been the official opposition since the polls suggest the LIBERALS might've been practically obliterated.

 

Singh waited too long.

Edited 22 hours ago by betsy

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, August1991 said:

Disagree.

IMHO, Carney is a Paul Martin Liberal.

Carney wants Canada to be great - like New Jersey.

Nope. Carney is absolutely nothing like Paul Martin, and Paul Martin wasn't very good either. Carney's time in office will be shockingly similar to Trudeau's

 

4 hours ago, August1991 said:

It will be a Liberal government - likely minority.

At issue is whether they need NDP or BQ seats.

It very well could be a liberal minority, the tea leaves are exceptionally hard to read this time around.

But no, the NDP cannot hold power. For god's sake do the math, the only way for the NDP to gain seats is if the liberals lose seats. They are not going to be taking seats from the CPC. So if the NDP take enough seats to make a difference the liberals will lose enough seats to have lost their minority. I assume you can count can't you?

It'll be the liberals or the conservatives and the block

 

3 hours ago, August1991 said:

People like Margaret Atwood and Andrew Coyne have always surprised me - why do you speak of them.

Robertson Davies is another story. He writes well.

Are you drunk? You're getting Dumber is this conversation goes on

[CdnFox]

22 minutes ago, betsy said:

Politics' wheel of fortune. 

Right now - do you think Singh doesn't regret taking down the government in DECEMBER, while Trudeau was in power?

He does not. He still wanted his pension. What he probably regrets is that Trudeau was forced to step down. But if he had to do it all over again knowing that he would still wait to get his pension

 

Quote

Had he listened to Poilievre, and done it then............. NDP would've been the official opposition since the polls suggest the LIBERALS might've been practically obliterated.

That's true. But even then the polls were suggesting his riding was in danger. It's worse now but it was not a slam dunk victory then either. He wasn't going to risk a pension worth something like 6 million dollars.

He waited long enough to make sure his interests were secured and then he thought about Canada, by then it was too late

 

[August1991]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Remember when you went on for months explaining to me how it was absolutely impossible that trump could win because of kryptonite? And I said I wasn't so sure.......   

 Of course they can. Harper did it with two minorities for a long time and he pulled the plug on them. The block is easy for the conservatives to deal with. And they would hold the balance of power in such a circumstance.

The NDP won't be voting for anything in the near future they'll be looking for a new leader. I think we both agree on that.

And despite his claims to the contrary I'm about 90% sure that if he loses the election carney is going to pack his bags and go. Which means the liberals will be in the same boat, doing a leadership race.

......

All true.

And I was wrong about Trump in 2016 too.

=====

I just don't see a Tory minority in April 2025. I haven't done the provincial seat numbers but I think the Liberals have too many in Ontario.

If the Conservatives get more seats than the Liberals, then PP could form a functional government with BQ support - as Harper did.

As to Carney, I  entirely agree. He's outta here if the Liberals lose.

[CdnFox]

Just now, August1991 said:

All true.

And I was wrong about Trump in 2016 too.

=====

I just don't see a Tory minority in April 2025. I haven't done the provincial seat numbers but I think the Liberals have too many in Ontario.

Well i'm a pro at reading the wind and  the tea leaves and honestly i can't say with any certainty where this is going.  I was a lot more sure about trump than i am about this. You could be entirely right. Half the signs point one way and the other half point very strongly in another way and i can't reconcile them no matter what i do. 

There is NO doubt that PP is gaining substantial momentum in the last days.  And i wonder about the projected turn out numbers. 

Having said that half the people have already voted.  ANd according to polling they favour the liberals.  But that's only one poll and i wonder about it? And will any of the others get out and vote now? 

I have several reasons why i think it may well be a CPC minority but i am by no means sure at all.  This one will be a nailbiter till they start counting the polls, and with so much advanced voting we could be waiting till morning. 

Honestly anything could happen. Liberal minority is how the polls are looking but it's close enough that it could go either way.

[August1991]

13 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Nope. Carney is absolutely nothing like Paul Martin, and Paul Martin wasn't very good either. Carney's time in office will be shockingly similar to Trudeau's

 

 

If the Liberals win a majority, Carney will be another Martin - assuming he can keep people out of the trough.

If they win a minority, it will be worse than Trudeau 1980.

[CdnFox]

Just now, August1991 said:

If the Liberals win a majority, Carney will be another Martin - assuming he can keep people out of the trough.

If they win a minority, it will be worse than Trudeau 1980.

No, if they win a majority carney will be another Trudeau. I know you wish it was different but you are 100% wrong. This guy is no Paul Martin. And like I said Paul Martin wasn't very good either. But he will be worse.

We will see the same things as we see now under Trudeau. And it won't take very long for that facade to crack

That's why I won't be terribly upset if they get a weak liberal majority. Which if you believe the polls is probably what we're looking at. Mind you the poles also said that Kamala was going to win.

[August1991]

7 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

....

Having said that half the people have already voted.  ANd according to polling they favour the liberals.  But that's only one poll and i wonder about it? And will any of the others get out and vote now? 

I have several reasons why i think it may well be a CPC minority but i am by no means sure at all.  This one will be a nailbiter till they start counting the polls, and with so much advanced voting we could be waiting till morning. 

....

Like sports, every election is a nail-biter.

I haven't voted yet - but many people around me have. Curious.

I suspect that many Canadians hear stories about American voting complications and want to vote. As I say, this is a referendum on Trump. And the Liberals are on the correct side.

===

I predict a Liberal majority - and a strong BQ opposition.

Now then: will Poilievre stay in place?

[August1991]

12 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

No, if they win a majority carney will be another Trudeau. I know you wish it was different but you are 100% wrong. This guy is no Paul Martin. And like I said Paul Martin wasn't very good either. But he will be worse.

We will see the same things as we see now under Trudeau. And it won't take very long for that facade to crack

That's why I won't be terribly upset if they get a weak liberal majority. Which if you believe the polls is probably what we're looking at. Mind you the poles also said that Kamala was going to win.

Disagree.

If it's a Liberal majority, Carney will be on the plane to Edmonton within a week.

The Liberals know how to collect/share the trough.

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, August1991 said:

Like sports, every election is a nail-biter.

Not for me, I usually have a pretty darn good idea who's going to win. Sometimes it's close but usually there's pretty strong indications. Sure it can be surprising sometimes there's no doubt but generally speaking you have a pretty good idea which way the winds blowing. It's been many decades since I have missed calling a federal election. But this one is Bizarre beyond belief. It could turn out that the poles are absolutely correct and we have a liberal minority, or it could be they're wrong and we get a liberal majority. Or a conservative minority,  If we got a cpc majority i would be surprised, but not shocked actually. 

And it complicates things that somewhere close to half of the people who will likely vote have already voted which makes it extremely hard Because the way the poles are reflecting today are obviously not the way the polls were when those people voted. It's a well-known fact that the liberals do not have as good a gotv team, But the one pole that tried to ask how people voted seems to suggest the early turnout favored the liberals. Yet that's not what I'm hearing anecdotally.

I don't know. 48 hours from now we will know