Biden/Harris parting gift to the world: A World War

[Dougie93]

14 hours ago, Nationalist said:

I don't know how many of those they have. I'm pretty sure they have enough standard missiles to get the job done though. Ever wonder why they haven't?

the Russians know that bombing Kiev is not going to win the war

the centre of gravity in this war is the Ukrainian army in the field

it's a war of attrition

the Russians are focusing on bleeding the Ukrainian army out

once the Ukrainians run out of troops, the Russians win

this is Russian doctrine, the Russian army is an artillery army

and they are producing the shells while NATO is running out of shells to give to the Ukrainians

the Russians are just going to keep pounding away with artillery, until the Ukrainian army breaks

and reports are, the Ukrainians are approaching the breaking point,  morale in the Ukrainian ranks is collapsing

the Russians just keep moving forward in increments, with the Ukrainians hanging on by their fingernails at this point

[NAME REMOVED]

28 minutes ago, Venandi said:

Pretty oblique IMO...

Does that mean it was reasonable to conclude that Ukraine (and Crimea for that matter) are / were somehow not of major strategic importance to Russia and any expectation (before the fact) that there might be pushback is the sole domain of misguided MAGA loons? 

Of course not.

What you omit to mention, is that each nation has internationally recognised boundaries, that must be respected. Crimea, throughout history, has mainly been included in the Ukraine, and has been since Ukraine declared independence in 1991. What is even more damning for Russia, is that Ukraine and Russia signed off on the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange for dismantling their nuclear arsenal, Ukraine was promised by Russia that the nation would respect it's sovereignty

Russia lied.

Russia is the clear aggressors in this conflict (similar to how the are also at fault in the conflict with Georgia). Any resistance by Ukraine against the Russian invasion, should be supported by the UN, NATO and the EU. 

Edited November 26, 2024 by DUI_Offender

[Dougie93]

9 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

That is complete speculation. Especially since Trump has bookend the claim that he will end the war on day one with stories about how he threatened the Taliban leaders. Trump has never said, outright, what he would do. He has implied that there would be subtle threats.

there's no path to victory for the Ukrainians

the American electorate has just voted to end the war

so this is just senseless slaughter without strategic purpose for the Ukrainians now

and it's approaching the threshold wherein the Ukrainian lines are going to break

then the Russians would start advancing towards the Dniepr River unopposed

NATO doesn't have a solution for them

the Russians already have what they want

Ukraine is not going to be joining NATO

the Russians have Crimea and a buffer zone to around it

the Ukrainians at this point need to live to fight another day

because if they wait until their lines collapse, they will get overrun very quickly thereafter

and NATO is not coming in to save them

Trump would  be saving them from themselves by forcing them to cut their losses

[Dougie93]

17 hours ago, User said:

 but its NATO that can't be trusted.

in fairness, NATO talked a big game, but now has left the Ukrainians hanging

I mean, Ukraine needed hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, two years ago

NATO only provided them with dozens, doled out piecemeal over a 1000 days

Canada is the poster child for NATO

lots of virtue signalling and accusing anyone who questions them as being "Russian agents"

but in terms of seriously ramping up to supply the Ukrainians ; never actually happened

nobody in NATO is mobilizing for anything

NATO has literally run out of ammo to give to the Ukrainians, because NATO stockpiles haven't been increased

Justin Trudeau prancing about declaring Canada's undying support for Ukraine ?

Canada literally gave Ukraine just two M777 howitzers, and a handful of APCs

who would trust NATO to back up their words after that pathetic display ?

at the end of the day, NATO has exposed itself as being a Paper Tiger

Edited November 26, 2024 by Dougie93

[Nationalist]

33 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said:

Of course not.

What you omit to mention, is that each nation has internationally recognised boundaries, that must be respected. Crimea, throughout history, has mainly been included in the Ukraine, and has been since Ukraine declared independence in 1991. What is even more damning for Russia, is that Ukraine and Russia signed off on the Budapest Memorandum. In exchange for dismantling their nuclear arsenal, Ukraine was promised by Russia that the nation would respect it's sovereignty

Russia lied.

Russia is the clear aggressors in this conflict (similar to how the are also at fault in the conflict with Georgia). Any resistance by Ukraine against the Russian invasion, should be supported by the UN, NATO and the EU. 

Here's a whif of reality.

On the topic of Ukraine...NATO lied, Russia lied, Zelinsky lied, the EU lied.

Trump did not lie.

This little bloodbath is coming to a close. Ukraine will likely be split and peace will return.

Choke on it.

[Nationalist]

5 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

in fairness, NATO talked a big game, but now has left the Ukrainians hanging

I mean, Ukraine needed hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, two years ago

NATO only provided them with dozens, doled out piecemeal over a 1000 days

Canada is the poster child for NATO

lots of virtue signalling and accusing anyone who questions them as being "Russian agents"

but in terms of seriously ramping up to supply the Ukrainians ; never actually happened

nobody in NATO is mobilizing for anything

NATO has literally run out of ammo to give to the Ukrainians, because NATO stockpiles haven't been increased

Justin Trudeau prancing about declaring Canada's undying support for Ukraine ?

Canada literally gave Ukraine just two M777 howitzers, and a handful of APCs

who would trust NATO to back up their words after that pathetic display?

Nobody with half a brain.

NATO has exposed itself as a toothless old has-been. I predict it now has a limited shelf-life.

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

Nobody with half a brain.

NATO has exposed itself as a toothless old has-been. I predict it now has a limited shelf-life.

Putin called NATO's bluff and NATO has been caught bluffing

the Europeans have done their usual routine of expecting America to shoulder the load

while the Europeans just carry on with ho hum business as usual,

along with Canada leading the way in that

so now the American electorate has decided that if the Europeans are going to sit on the sidelines

then America is calling a halt to this debacle before it gets any worse

Edited November 26, 2024 by Dougie93

[Nationalist]

2 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

Putin called NATO's bluff and NATO has been caught bluffing

the Europeans have done their usual routine of expecting America to shoulder the load

while the Europeans carry on with ho hum business as usual,

along with Canada leading the way in that

and now the American electorate has decided that if the Europeans are going to sit on the sidelines

then America is calling a halt to this debacle before it gets any worse

It's about time!

[Dougie93]

5 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

It's about time!

well it could get a lot worse for the Ukrainians and it could happen really fast

the Ukrainian army is at the point of exhaustion

and if/when their lines start collapsing, there's nothing backing that up

the Russians would suddenly be able to take off down the highway into the Ukrainian rear

and there wouldn't be anything in their way to stop them

so this could turn into a Dien Bien Phu like disaster at any moment

Edited November 26, 2024 by Dougie93

[Nationalist]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

well it could get a lot worse for the Ukrainians and it could happen really fast

the Ukrainian army is at the point of exhaustion

and if/when their lines start collapsing, there's nothing backing that up

the Russians would suddenly be able to take off down the highway into the Ukrainian rear

and there wouldn't be anything in their way to stop them

so this could turn into a Dien Bien Phu like disaster at any moment

I don't think Russia wants to take over all of Ukraine. 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, Nationalist said:

I don't think Russia wants to take over all of Ukraine. 

no, western Ukraine is beyond their means,

but they could advance right up to the east bank of the Dnieper river and make that The Inner Ukrainian Border

[Nationalist]

1 minute ago, Dougie93 said:

no, western Ukraine is beyond their means,

but they could advance right up to the east bank of the Dnieper river and make that The Inner Ukrainian Border

And they might just do that.

When this is all over, Ukraine will have another problem. Very few young men to procreate. I have a solution.

We can send all our "refugees" there. I'm sure the Ukraine will be tickled pink to have them...

Raping their little girls.

[User]

31 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

in fairness, NATO talked a big game, but now has left the Ukrainians hanging

Yeah, that was not the kind of trust Nationalist was criticizing them for.

[User]

11 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I don't think Russia wants to take over all of Ukraine. 

Except... they tried to on day one of the invasion. 

What you think and what actually happened are worlds apart. 

[Dougie93]

3 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

And they might just do that.

well when an army collapses, it's a not a graceful slow moving event

it happens all at once, then the enemy drives into the rear, forcing the Ukrainians to flee or become encircled

then it comes down to terrain ; what is the geographic feature which stops the rout ?

that would be the river, there's  really nothing else to slow the Russians down until they got there

 

[Radiorum]

10 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

That is complete speculation.

No, Trump's track record of a transactional approach is well documented. There are a lot of quotes of his to show he favours that approach over any loyalty to allies. But, if he lets the Ukraine war end in a lop-sided deal that favours Putin, then Putin will have won and the US will have lost. I'm not sure that would sit well with Trump.

[Dougie93]

7 minutes ago, User said:

Yeah, that was not the kind of trust Nationalist was criticizing them for.

intentions are actually irrelevant

whether  it was the Soviets or now the Russians, all they look at is capability

it's like when the Bush Administration unilaterally pulled out of the ABM treaty

I said;  stand by for Cold War Two

when Obama declared that America was putting Ballistic  Missile Defense in Poland & Roumania ?

I said ; stand by for the shit to hit the fan

so I don't trust NATO not to do something utterly reckless without considering the consequence, that's for sure

[Dougie93]

27 minutes ago, User said:

Except... they tried to on day one of the invasion.

except they didn't deploy anywhere near enough forces to occupy Ukraine

they didn't even launch an organized combined arms operation to do so

what they did, was launch haphazardly  into a series of "Thunder Runs"

they just took off down the highway towards Kiev, not even prepared for a fight

clearly the Kremlin expected it to be a walk over with no significant resistance

they apparently expected to just roll into Kiev, depose the government, then roll back to Russia after

[User]

5 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

except they didn't deploy anywhere near enough forces to occupy Ukraine

I did not say occupy, they certainly were trying to take over... it is picking nits on take over being they thought they could depose the current government and then leave. 

[Scott75]

5 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

35 minutes ago, User said:

Except... they tried to on day one of the invasion. 

except they didn't deploy anywhere near enough forces to occupy Ukraine

they didn't even launch an organized combined arms operation to do so

what they did, was launch haphazardly  into a series of "Thunder Runs"

they just took off down the highway towards Kiev, not even prepared for a fight

clearly the Kremlin expected it to be a walk over with no significant resistance

they apparently expected to just roll into Kiev, depose the government, then roll back to Russia after

I think you're right that Russia underestimated Ukraine's will and capability to fight. I -also- suspect they may have thought that faced with Russia's army breathing down his neck, Zelensky would agree to a peace deal and Russia would, as you say, just "roll back to Russia after". It almost happened too. Then the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson persuaded Zelensky not to take the deal. It's the best deal Zelensky could have taken. HIs prospects now are much, much worse. An article on said deal here:

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-russia-war-peace-diplomacy/

[User]

29 minutes ago, Dougie93 said:

so I don't trust NATO not to do something utterly reckless without considering the consequence, that's for sure

Well, I don't have much interest in rehashing the ABM treaty or deployment of missile defense systems... but neither has caused some major cold war or the shit to hit the fan. 

The point I was making here is that Nationalist was not criticizing NATO for not doing more for Ukraine as being why they can't be trusted. He is here arguing NATO can't be trusted by the Russians... 

[Dougie93]

1 minute ago, User said:

I did not say occupy, they certainly were trying to take over... it is picking nits on take over being they thought they could depose the current government and then leave. 

well if they managed to take over fait accompli without significant resistance

then there would be no cause for NATO to do anything about it

I mean, the Soviets rolled into Hungary & Czechoslovakia. and NATO didn't do anything about it

[User]

2 minutes ago, phoenyx75 said:

Then the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson persuaded Zelensky not to take the deal. It's the best deal Zelensky could have taken. HIs prospects now are much, much worse. An article on said deal here:

I see you just keep repeating this bogus line... 

 

[Dougie93]

2 minutes ago, User said:

Well, I don't have much interest in rehashing the ABM treaty or deployment of missile defense systems... but neither has caused some major cold war or the shit to hit the fan.

 okay, sure, whatever,

 

 

[Scott75]

1 minute ago, User said:

5 minutes ago, phoenyx75 said:

Then the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson persuaded Zelensky not to take the deal. It's the best deal Zelensky could have taken. HIs prospects now are much, much worse. An article on said deal here:

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-russia-war-peace-diplomacy/

I see you just keep repeating this bogus line... 

You quoted 3 sentences I wrote. What in them do you think is "bogus"?