Conservatives’ path to victory propelled by women, young voters, and a deep desire for change, say pollsters

[CdnFox]

Conservatives' path to victory propelled by women, young voters, and a deep desire for change, say pollsters - The Hill Times

The Liberals don’t have the geographic or demographic base to build from right now, and they're losing in every province. Pierre Poilievre may not be 'everybody's cup of tea,' but it's about choice and change, and he's the only option, says pollster Darrell Bricker.

 

In an Abacus Data poll of 2,964 Canadians conducted earlier this month, 37 per cent of women said they would vote Conservative, compared to 23 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. 

Perhaps more surprisingly, 39 per cent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29, and 44 per cent of millennials (30 to 44 years old) said they plan to vote Conservative. The Liberals received 24 per cent and 14 per cent support from those once key demographics respectively in the survey, which also found that Poilievre “is far more popular among those under 30 than those over 60.” 

For Abacus Data founder, chair and CEO David Coletto, the results represent “the biggest story of Canadian politics in the last three years.”

Today’s millennials “were essential in giving the Liberals their majority in 2015,” and along with the younger cohort, “sustaining the Liberal wins in 2019 and 2021,” said Coletto.

[CdnFox]

It's actually fascinating to watch. And these kids supported the liberals for 3 elections, and have now come to realize that they were betrayed and that the promises were false. 

I suspect many of them will never go back to the liberals again, especially if Poilievre can actually begin to make life better.

Likewise with the women. If they come to realize how hollow liberal promises are they will be reluctant to vote liberal in the future.

It is quite possible that the liberals will have done severe damage to their brand name for quite some time. It is even possible that if the ending he gets rid of jagmeet and he likes someone as leader who is genuinely appealing such as Layton was that the liberals could fall off the map as the "other" party and be relegated to third spot or lower. 

It'll be interesting to see. I think mark carney held a little bit of possible hope for the liberals but it is obvious that he is not all that excited about running for prime minister. And he's now tied his name in with justin as his new economic advisor and we'll wind up having to wear the liberal failures moving forward. Bad move

[taxme]

20 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

It's actually fascinating to watch. And these kids supported the liberals for 3 elections, and have now come to realize that they were betrayed and that the promises were false. 

I suspect many of them will never go back to the liberals again, especially if Poilievre can actually begin to make life better.

Likewise with the women. If they come to realize how hollow liberal promises are they will be reluctant to vote liberal in the future.

It is quite possible that the liberals will have done severe damage to their brand name for quite some time. It is even possible that if the ending he gets rid of jagmeet and he likes someone as leader who is genuinely appealing such as Layton was that the liberals could fall off the map as the "other" party and be relegated to third spot or lower. 

It'll be interesting to see. I think mark carney held a little bit of possible hope for the liberals but it is obvious that he is not all that excited about running for prime minister. And he's now tied his name in with justin as his new economic advisor and we'll wind up having to wear the liberal failures moving forward. Bad move

The liberals never really care about anything but themselves. They will promise everyone hope and happiness but never have delivered. All the liberals have given us is false hope and sadness. I cannot believe that after all this Marxist buffoon did to Canada and Canadians over the years there are still many brainless twits out there that are still ready to vote for that buffoon. The buffoon has given those liberals more grief and poverty and high inflation yet some are still stupid enough to give him their vote. What kind of imbeciles are these people anyway? Those people have to be very low on brain cells. What else can it be? They keep feeding a monster that keeps biting their hand. Incredible. 

[Moonlight Graham]

CPC is polling at 50% outside of Quebec

 

I believe they lead in every province that isn't Quebec, including BC

Edited October 1, 2024 by Moonlight Graham

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Moonlight Graham said:

CPC is polling at 50% outside of Quebec

 

I believe they lead in every province that isn't Quebec, including BC

Not only that, but every age group as well AND both men and women. 

But the thing that's really surprising is how sustained this has been. This has been going on now with the same sort of numbers for almost a year.

When you have that kind of thinking for that long it tends to become a little ingrained. A lot of these voters will not be able to think of a time when they didn't hate the liberals and prefer the conservatives

That might very well have some very long reaching effects over time. If the conservatives can play their cards right they may wind up in power for the next 12 to 15 years

[CITIZEN_2015]

Conservatives have the momentum now and that is because Liberals messed up so bad with their misguided immigration policies resulting in a huge rise in housing prices, and lack of jobs even for skilled workers. The question is whether they can keep this momentum and my guess is that they won't be able to, especially if they trigger an election by introducing many no confidence votes in the house of Commons and forcing a Christmas or winter election. Also the one to two months election campaign may work in Liberals' favor as this period has changed opinions a lot. Remember 1993 election. Conservative's Kim Campbell started the campaign with a majority in the polls and were almost fully eliminated on election day a month or two later.

[CdnFox]

18 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

Conservatives have the momentum now and that is because Liberals messed up so bad with their misguided immigration policies resulting in a huge rise in housing prices, and lack of jobs even for skilled workers. The question is whether they can keep this momentum and my guess is that they won't be able to, especially if they trigger an election by introducing many no confidence votes in the house of Commons and forcing a Christmas or winter election. Also the one to two months election campaign may work in Liberals' favor as this period has changed opinions a lot. Remember 1993 election. Conservative's Kim Campbell started the campaign with a majority in the polls and were almost fully eliminated on election day a month or two later.

They've kept this momentum for over a year. It shows no signs of fading, in fact it's still slowly creeping its way up. Outside of Quebec there now 50% of the vote

It doesn't seem likely that Trudeau is going to stop doing stupid things or that the problems will resolve themselves. Has shown himself to be a very talented campaigner so he will probably pick up some ground during the next election which is less than a year away at this point no matter what

[CITIZEN_2015]

17 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Has shown himself to be a very talented campaigner so he will probably pick up some ground during the next election which is less than a year away at this point no matter what

My point exactly. He badly defeated Harper in 2015 by his fierce campaign. However, this time he dug a deep hole he can't possibly climb out but all he has to do is to pickup 6 to 8 points to prevent a majority conservative government and especially if election date is a year from now, then inflation and mortgagee rates will be at their lowest by then and he will have a lot to capitalize on then. That is why PP is trying to force an election ASAP. He knows time is not on his side.

Edited October 1, 2024 by CITIZEN_2015

[CdnFox]

15 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

My point exactly. He badly defeated Harper in 2015 by his fierce campaign. However, this time he dug a deep hole he can't possibly climb out but all he has to do is to pickup 6 to 8 points to prevent a majority conservative government and especially if election date is a year from now, then inflation and mortgagee rates will be at their lowest by then and he will have a lot to capitalize on then. That is why PP is trying to force an election ASAP. He knows time is not on his side.

I was referring to PP as being a great campaigner. 

Trudeau did very well too as you note, but this time he's run out of road and his usual tricks of division probably won't help. 

Time is on PP's side for the most part.  Of couse he'd like to go now, he knows for sure he'll win right now whereas over time anything's possible.  But it's quite clear that if anything time is most likley to make things worse for the libs.  And now that Carney is trudau's financial advisor he's probably shot himself in the foot for an eventual leadership run, so the libs will have nobody